A political earthquake just happened in New York City last night. Zohran Mamdani seems to have won the Democratic primary in the mayoral election, defeating former governor Andrew Cuomo. The results won't be final for another week, and the margin of victory will change (since the voting was by ranked-choice ballot), but last night Cuomo conceded defeat. This morning, there is plenty of buzz about what this all means to the bigger Democratic Party picture, but while it was a stunning upset for New York City it may not be a harbinger of much of anything in the rest of the country. I say this because the circumstances were so unique, and because New York City is not the rest of America.

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After another 24 hours of rapidly-unfolding developments, we thought it was worth taking another look at where things stand. Donald Trump announced a ceasefire agreement yesterday between Iran and Israel, and after a shaky start (with both sides accusing the other of breaking the ceasefire) it seems to be holding for now. It also seems that Iran will not retaliate further against the United States, after a rather pro forma attack on a U.S. base in Qatar. And today, details leaked of an intelligence assessment that shows the result of the American attack on Iran's nuclear program may not have been "obliteration" (as Trump and others have claimed), but rather just "set back by months."

Taken as a whole, the news is largely good. Trump's gamble -- that Iran wouldn't opt for massive retaliation against the U.S. -- seems to have paid off. Of course, it is still rather early to completely relax, as Iran still has a number of ways it could retaliate in the future (cyberattacks, assassination attempts, terrorist attacks), but the Iranian regime is in an awfully weak position overall. Their leaders want (above all else) to retain their own domestic power to continue their theocratic (and autocratic) rule over the country, and this sense of self-preservation seems to be what is driving them to the negotiating table.

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We stand at a turning point, but as is common at such a juncture, nobody knows exactly what is going to come next. By bombing Iran's nuclear facilities, the United States is now at war, but what that will mean going forward is really anyone's guess right now.

So far, the consequences have been muted. [Editorial note: We are purposely avoiding using the word "fallout" here, because in the context of bombing a nuclear facility that word has to be reserved for its original literal meaning.] Iran launched a counterattack today, but on such a small scale that it didn't do any damage. Is this the opening shot in a larger campaign, or is it a face-saving ploy by the Iranian regime designed mostly for the benefit of their own citizens (to show that they're "fighting back")? They're in the midst of a larger war with Israel right now, but U.S. military targets are a lot closer to their shores than Israel -- meaning they can use short- and medium-range missiles that can't reach Israeli soil to attack us. Militarily, the United States is a distraction for Iran's war with Israel, but that doesn't mean they will back down.

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Maybe Donald Trump missed his calling in life. Maybe he secretly dreams of running a car dealership lot. Previously, he turned the White House lawn into a showroom for Teslas (as he showed his tenuous grasp of the English language, saying: "It's all computer!"). Now he has erected two very tall flagpoles on the White House grounds, complete with the sort of giant flag one usually sees from a highway to signify an auto dealership. Which means our title this week pretty much had to be based on the maxim: "Let's run it up the flagpole and see who salutes!"

We're not even going to get into the idiocy and priapic monomania Trump displayed in gushing about his new poles (which was pretty laughable, but we felt the late-night comedians are already doing a stellar job of mocking Trump's flagpole-stroking monologue), because this was a serious week.

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Next month, America will celebrate its 249th birthday on July 4th. But the rest of the world will be much more concerned with what happens five days later, on July 9th. That is the deadline for Donald Trump's 90-day "pause" in what he calls his "reciprocal tariffs" on the rest of the world. Either countries have a new trade deal in place with the U.S. by that date, or else steep tariffs will once again be imposed upon them.

This pause period came about because Trump backed down almost immediately after his big "Liberation Day" announcement, when the bond markets got (as Trump put it) "yippy" in response. His administration promised "90 deals in 90 days" and has been full of happy talk about how every country in the world is absolutely begging to cut a deal with Trump before the deadline is reached. Here's a typical quote from Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick: "You're going to see deal after deal, they're going to start coming next week and the week after and the week after. We've got them in the hopper." Except that week after week then goes by and... nothing is announced at all.

To date, the United States has cut precisely zero fully-fledged trade deals with other countries. One country -- the United Kingdom -- has agreed to a framework for a deal, and that's it. And that 90-day calendar now has less than three weeks to run.

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Today Donald Trump was asked whether he had made the decision to attack Iran's nuclear sites or not. He answered with perhaps the truest words he has ever spoken: "You don't seriously think I'm going to answer that question. You don't know that I'm going to even do it. You know, I may do it. I may not do it. I mean, nobody knows what I'm going to do." It's hard to disagree with that, really.

But the subject deserves more than just snark, since it is a serious decision Trump has to make -- and it would be an equally tough decision for any U.S. president to have to make. Entering the country into a war is always a serious decision, and it should be treated as such by all concerned.

The stakes are high. There are valid arguments to be made on both sides of the issue. Whatever Trump decides, it will come with some degree of risk -- both for the country and for him politically.

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[Editorial Note: Every so often, my scheduling/writing decisions turn out to be incredibly wrong. Yesterday, for instance, I wrote about something that seemed important and was worth pointing out because Trump seemed to be backing down and (for once) doing the right thing after all. Within hours of posting the article, however, the news broke that the White House had flip-flopped and decided that they weren't backing down, and instead had reinstated the original policy of ICE doing workplace raids on farmworkers, meatpackers, hotel workers, and restaurants. Eventually, economics will force them to reverse course once again, but it's questionable how long this will take after the fiasco of this flip-flop. In any case, what I'm trying to say is (hindsight being 20/20 and all) I wish I had run the following article yesterday rather than winding up with egg on my face.]

Donald Trump, once again, seems to be experiencing a case of "crowd size envy" in a big way. Or perhaps "in a little way" would be more appropriate? The White House confidently reported that 250,000 people showed up to view the Dear Leader's birthday military extravaganza, but the only way you can believe that figure is if you avoid seeing any of the actual photos of the crowd.

If this all sounds familiar, it should. It was in fact the premiere bit of idiocy from Trump's first term, when he claimed that a record crowd of a bazillion people (or whatever it was, I am too lazy to look it up, sorry) attended his inauguration when the photos showed one of the lightest inauguration turnouts in modern history. Thus began the "Who are you going to believe, me or your lying eyes?" theme that continues to this day from Trump.

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Donald Trump bent to reality last week, issuing an order that amounts to a stunning turnaround on his "mass deportation" policy. Instead of rounding up every undocumented immigrant in sight everywhere, ICE will now back off on raiding farms, meatpacking plants, hotels, and restaurants. Because the reality of the situation is that if you removed all the undocumented immigrants from these industries, they would essentially grind to a halt. Which Trump has (thankfully) now finally realized.

In typical Trumpian fashion, this was not a well-thought-out plan which was carefully implemented, it was an off-the-cuff decision Trump made after talking to one person. So it remains to be seen what the impact of it all will be, as the dust settles.

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It has been a week of dangerous precedents being set -- and it's not over yet.

One precedent that didn't get much media attention (but which is truly disturbing) was Donald Trump giving a nakedly political speech to American soldiers in uniform, where he pre-screened the crowd for both looks and ideology. One memo sent out before Trump arrived specified: "No fat soldiers." Another stated: "if soldiers have political views that are in opposition to the current administration and they don't want to be in the audience, then they need to speak with their leadership and get swapped out."

This is dangerous stuff, folks. The United States military has always been seen as completely apolitical, for a damn good reason -- because it sets us apart from countries where the military is used for political purposes. Which is a good thing. Or it used to be, at any rate.

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The most important battle over immigration policy isn't being fought on the streets of Los Angeles right now, but rather over the airwaves. This is the fight for public opinion, and it could go either way. If the public largely sides with Trump's immigration tactics, it will strengthen his hand. But if the public decides the tactics go too far then it will weaken him in the long run. How the events of this week are ultimately seen by the public could be the deciding factor. Is Donald Trump and his administration doing what the voters elected him to do, or is he vastly overreaching in a dictatorial fashion? That's the entire rhetorical battle in a nutshell.

Trump has always wanted to be seen as a strongman, of course. So to him, brutal tactics and overreacting are exactly what he wants to see. Trump, aided by the rightwing media echo chamber, would like the public to think that Los Angeles is in danger of being "burned to the ground" and that lawlessness reigns throughout the city. This is wildly inaccurate hyperbole, but that's never stopped him before. But he is in serious danger of people turning against him on the issue precisely because of the brutal tactics.

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