ChrisWeigant.com

Trump's Numbers Just Keep Getting Worse

[ Posted Thursday, March 26th, 2026 – 16:38 UTC ]

In all sorts of ways, Donald Trump is getting some very bad numbers these days. Perhaps this has something to do with his newfound eagerness to somehow quickly end his war of choice in Iran? One can only speculate....

Trump's numbers are bad and they just keep right on coming. Within a few weeks, we will get new official inflation numbers which will reflect at least the first few weeks of Trump's War, when the price of gasoline started to skyrocket. And just today, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development put out their new estimates, which aren't good. The O.E.C.D. is now predicting that the inflation rate in America will average out to a whopping 4.2 percent this year -- over a full percentage point up from their last forecast. So it wouldn't surprise me in the least to see the official U.S. inflation number climb well above three percent in the March numbers, and it also won't be a surprise if they top four percent by next month, either.

Meanwhile, on Wall Street, stocks had their worst day today since the beginning of the war, while oil prices rose on the world market. The S&P average fell 1.7 percent today, and is down over 400 points from the start of the month (when it was at 6,900). Mortgage rates are jumping upwards as well, which hurts homebuyers. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate was under 6.0 percent before the war started, and has now risen to 6.38 percent (and climbing).

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No Real Progress On Government Shutdown

[ Posted Wednesday, March 25th, 2026 – 16:57 UTC ]

The ongoing partial government shutdown is about to break the record for the longest government shutdown in history. It affects only the Department of Homeland Security, which has limited the shutdown's visibility to the average American (in comparison to previous wider-scale shutdowns), but that has been changing over the past few weeks. The Transportation Security Administration is now publicly bearing the brunt of the shutdown, as T.S.A. agents at airports are increasingly deciding not to go to work (some of them can't even afford the gas to get there) or just to quit altogether. This has increased wait times at certain airports, which the media picked up on and has been featuring nightly on the news.

This increase in public pressure has actually spurred some movement in Congress, but it may not be enough to strike a deal. Congress is scheduled to scarper off on one of their multiweek vacations starting Friday, so if no deal is reached it will mean at least another two weeks of nothing getting done. What's interesting in the midst of all this is that the public doesn't even seem interested in playing "the blame game" that usually accompanies such shutdowns, as most people just lay the blame on "the politicians" without specifying a party. They show a blanket disgust at the way the political system in America just does not work, in a "pox on both your houses" sort of way.

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California's Debate Fiasco

[ Posted Tuesday, March 24th, 2026 – 16:42 UTC ]

California voters were supposed to see a gubernatorial debate this evening (well... early evening -- for some reason it was scheduled to run at 5:00 P.M., when most people aren't even home from work yet, but whatever...), but it has now been cancelled. The University of Southern California announced this morning that it was cancelling the debate due to criticism over who would have been allowed on stage and who would have been excluded.

The California governor's race is an unusual one for a couple of different reasons. First, there will be no incumbent, since sitting Governor Gavin Newsom cannot run again due to term limits. So the field is wide open for both major political parties. Second, because of the dynamics of the race and the odd primary system California uses, the outcome of the race might put two Republican candidates on the ballot for the general election in November, with zero Democratic candidates. That is an unthinkable outcome for a state that is deep blue (Democrats outnumber Republicans by at least 60/40 in the state). And thirdly, while this race is important, very few people in California are paying much attention to it at all -- which is odd. It might be due to neither party running an obvious rock-star of a candidate who essentially clears the field in the primaries. But for whatever reason, most California voters have yet to tune in to the race at all. Which is why a televised debate might have been important.

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Unbelievable

[ Posted Monday, March 23rd, 2026 – 16:18 UTC ]

It's a sad sort of commentary on the times we live in when the leaders of a country we are at war with sound more believable than the American president... but here we are. Donald Trump continues to flail around and issue blustery statements, but as always you have to wonder how much of it is bluster, how much of it is wishful thinking, and how much of it is just sheer delusion.

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Friday Talking Points -- Promises Made, Promises Broken

[ Posted Friday, March 20th, 2026 – 18:23 UTC ]

Donald Trump seems to be determined to break as many campaign promises as he possibly can, in the shortest period of time possible. Conveniently (for Democrats), he is doing all of this right at the start of the midterm campaign season, as the first states conduct their primaries. This seems like a rather spectacular way to commit political suicide, but then again Trump is a master at avoiding consequences, so who really knows how it will all play out?

Here we are at the end of Week Three of Trump's War, with no end in sight. Remember him campaigning on avoiding foreign wars? Well, all of that has gone right out the window. In the midst of all of this, Trump was downright astonished that learn that NATO actually can be useful to the United States (who knew?), but due to his naked belligerence towards them (complete with threats to take over Greenland and Canada, playground insults, and other assorted instances of boorishness and contempt), they are not exactly leaping into action to help Trump out. It's hard to blame them for this, but it certainly is amusing to see Trump flip-flopping from threatening NATO countries to insisting (in that petulant way only a butt-hurt 6-year-old can manage) that he really doesn't need their help at all, dammit!

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The Price At The Pump (And At The Ballot Box)

[ Posted Thursday, March 19th, 2026 – 16:48 UTC ]

In assessing how Donald Trump's war of choice is proceeding, we turn once again to the metric most Americans are using as their chief measurement: the average nationwide price of a gallon of gasoline now stands at $3.91. That is up $1.16 from the mid-January lowpoint of this year, and it is up 97 cents from the day before the bombing started. It is also only nine cents away from the psychological "four bucks a gallon" milestone (which the media is likely to prominently feature, when we do hit it). And currently, there is absolutely no end in sight to the high prices -- which still have yet to peak.

Obviously, this is a big political problem for Trump. But of course, he has only himself to blame. He did not prepare the American people for this war, he did not consult with any of America's allies, he did not listen to military experts who warned him what Iran would likely do (close the Strait of Hormuz), and he simply has no "Plan B" for how to extricate the country from his growing mess. If he had done any of those things differently, perhaps we would still be in the same position right now, but Trump might have built more solid support (both at home and worldwide) and the economic pain might not be such a looming political disaster for him.

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Amateur Hour

[ Posted Wednesday, March 18th, 2026 – 15:51 UTC ]

As every day of Trump's War progresses, it becomes more and more apparent that Trump and his entire administration are completely clueless about what they are doing. Which (it will come as no surprise to learn) they truly have no one to blame for but themselves. Six months ago, as NOTUS reports, "the Department of State fired its oil and gas experts... the administration laid off staff who would have been responsible for gaming out possible scenarios if the Strait of Hormuz was closed."

The story gets even worse:

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From The Archives -- Don't Call It A Black-And-Tan

[ Posted Tuesday, March 17th, 2026 – 17:12 UTC ]

I have decided to take the day off (for obvious reasons), so I thought I'd run a holiday favorite today. So here you go, and I hope everyone has a great day out there! (New columns will resume tomorrow...)

 

Originally published March 15th, 2012

I realize I'm a wee bit early for a Saint Patrick's Day column, but tomorrow is our regularly-scheduled Friday Talking Points, and Saturday I will be hoisting a pint of Sir Arthur Guinness' fine product, so we'll just have to make do with today.

Being pressed for time, I thought I'd just re-run my explanation of what "Saint Patrick banishing the snakes from Ireland" actually means, as it is an entertaining story to tell down at your local pub this weekend, full of rich Irish history that will amaze your sozzled friends. If you can remember the story, at the time, of course.

But that was before I had read the story of Nike putting "its foot in it" (as the Irish Times summed it up) with a mis-branding faux pas for the ages. We'll get to that in a moment.

Before we do, I have a piece of advice for all American tourists who ever find themselves in Ireland. Be it on Paddy's Day, or be it any other day of the year, the advice I have to give will still be sound. Because you'll arrive in Ireland starry-eyed with the magic of the Emerald Isle, and will immediately want to explore the nearest quaint pub and drink deep of the... ahem... flavor of the local life, not to put to fine a point on it.

At this point, you may be tempted to ask the barman for what you believe will be a well-known local drink, and you may thus make the mistake of asking for a "black and tan." The reception of what you consider a harmless drink order for a pint glass half-filled with Harp and half-filled with Guinness Stout will not, however, be a merry twinkle of approval from the barman's eye for ordering a local delicacy. Instead, you will (hopefully) be forgiven for such a gross error of etiquette, and (once they hear some more of your American accent, again, hopefully) they will instruct you in the long and grim history of the Black and Tans -- with a helpful suggestion that if you ever want the same drink again in an Irish pub, that you ask for it as a "half and half" instead.

That's if you're lucky, mind you. If you're not so lucky, you will be met with a much more... shall we say, "colorful" response... from both the barman and any nearby patrons who happen to overhear such an offensive request. Loudly proclaiming "I'm an American! That's what we call it back home! I didn't realize..." may help, just as a humble suggestion.

This may be confusing, which is why I'm offering this advice beforehand. Back home in Peoria (or Wherevertown, U.S.A.) you may be accustomed to enjoying an evening in your local "Irish" pub, and this may be a favorite drink for you to order. But what you don't realize is that this is an American-Irish term. It's like the difference between Tex-Mex and real Mexican food, on a benign level. On a less benign level, however, it would be like walking into a bar in Harlem and asking the bartender for a drink you were used to calling a "K.K.K." This is about the magnitude of how offensive ordering a "black and tan" in an Irish pub truly is.

Which brings us to our marketing snafu (or, really, a marketing fubar, if truth be told). Nike decided that it would be a good week to release two new shoe styles. The first they called the "Guinness," and the second they called the "Black and Tan." Whoops. The company has since issued an apology and insists that the names were nothing more than "unofficial" anyway. "Good luck with that," was my initial response. Other American companies have made the same mistake in the past, after all.

The reason why the name "Black and Tans" is so monumentally wrong for a corporate promotion (and for you to order in a pub in Ireland) is the history behind the term. In 1920, England decided to send an army of thugs into Ireland to deal with the guerrilla war being waged by the Irish Republican Army (which is not exactly the same thing as what Americans call the "I.R.A." in modern times, but that's a whole 'nother story). This paramilitary group became known as the Black and Tans. From a British newspaper on the Nike story comes an excellent rundown of this history. Here's a short excerpt (I highly recommend reading the whole article):

The recruits, many hardened by trench warfare, were given only a few months' training before being despatched to Ireland, supposedly to act as policemen but in fact to provide military steel. In Ireland, they faced a very different type of war. The IRA waged guerrilla warfare, with hit-and-run tactics, attacks on isolated police barracks and deadly ambushes in territory which was unfamiliar to the Tans. All the security forces found this an extremely frustrating type of conflict but the Tans in particular quickly abandoned the normal rules and conduct of war.

They were in any case explicitly instructed to step outside the law, one police divisional commander instructing his men in a speech: "If a police barracks is burnt then the best house in the locality is to be commandeered, the occupants thrown into the gutter. Let them die there; the more the merrier."

He instructed them to shout "Hands up" at civilians, and to shoot anyone who did not immediately obey. He added: "Innocent persons may be shot, but that cannot be helped, and you are bound to get the right parties some time. The more you shoot, the better I will like you, and I assure you no policeman will get into trouble for shooting any man."

This is the number one reason you should not use this phrase to order a drink anywhere in Ireland. To say that "it brings up bad memories" doesn't even begin to describe it. Read that whole article, if you don't believe me.

Of course, there is a far better reason not to order such a drink. To be quite blunt, the Irish will not be impressed at your local savvy -- even if you ask for a "half and half." They will, instead, consider you some species of wimp -- for watering down perfectly good Guinness Stout. Especially since they don't even brew Harp in Ireland any more (it's now made in Canada, check the label).

It's best just to ask for a pint of Guinness, if truth be told. If you want to sound like a grizzled old culchie, you could say something like: "I think me physician would recommend a pint of the customary," or maybe: "A pint of Sir Arthur's finest" -- although I have to further warn that, with your American accent, you'll never pull it off. It's safest just to politely go with: "A pint of Guinness, thanks very much."

Beannachtaí na Féile Pádraig!
Happy Saint Patrick's Day!

-- Chris Weigant

 

Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant

 

Does Not Play Well With Others

[ Posted Monday, March 16th, 2026 – 16:26 UTC ]

There's a certain type of young child who gets that phrase written about him on his early school report cards. The type who has to be the center of everything, all the time. Who always has to be the one who picks what games the other children play. Who, when losing one of those games, angrily throws the game board to the floor, scattering all the pieces, while yelling: "You cheated!" Who insults the other children and mocks them mercilessly for any perceived shortcomings. Who has an incredibly thin skin when mocked himself. Who never takes the blame for anything or admits any wrongdoing. Who throws epic tantrums at the drop of a hat. In a word: a bully.

Donald Trump, our toddler-in-chief, is in the midst of one of those incandescent tantrums. His war isn't going anywhere near as well as he thought it would, and the fact that Iran has effectively shut down the Strait of Hormuz is making him apoplectic with rage. He is now demanding that other countries of the world save him from his missteps, by sending their warships into the Strait to escort oil tankers and other ships. But he's finding that the rest of the world is not exactly leaping to help him out, which shouldn't come of much of a surprise to anyone, considering how he has treated all of America's closest allies up to this point.

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Friday Talking Points -- Trump's War

[ Posted Friday, March 13th, 2026 – 18:08 UTC ]

After two weeks of war with Iran, gas prices in America have now reached a national average of $3.65 per gallon. That is 71 cents higher than they were before Donald Trump started this war, and 90 cents higher than the average was in mid-January. And prices continue to climb -- oil is now trading worldwide at over $100 per barrel.

Trump has no clue what to do about this. He even tried spinning it as a positive thing this week, posting on social media: "The United States is the largest Oil Producer in the World, by far, so when oil prices go up, we make a lot of money." You'll note that the "we" in that sentence absolutely does not include the American public buying gasoline at the pump. "We" means giant oil companies, and they "make a lot of money" because American consumers have to pay a whole lot more to fill their tanks up.

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