[Note: Updated below...]

The New York Times is reporting this morning that negotiations within the Iraq government on hydrocarbon legislation have completely collapsed. [I refuse to link to subscription sites, but you can view the article at the San Jose Mercury News website for free.]

Ironically, the Washington Post printed a letter today from Zalmay Khalilzad, the United States' Ambassador to the United Nations. He defends the American pressure on Iraq to pass an oil law, while at the same time speaking of it in the past tense. Either he's prophetic, or he already knew when he wrote it that the deal was going to fall apart:

First, the agreement within the Iraqi cabinet on the basic law in February was a major achievement. It is a requirement of the constitution. Moreover, all Iraqi factions said that an agreement on oil and gas revenue was an essential political condition for stabilizing the country. Only if all Iraqi communities knew that they would fairly benefit from these resources would they commit themselves to Iraq's new political order. The issue was fundamental to achieving a national compact.

. . .

The inability of the Iraqi parliament to complete this and related legislation on model oil contracts and other issues is an indication of how much is at stake and of the difficulty and importance of this legislation.

Achieving stability and prosperity will ultimately require Iraqi leaders to return to this draft law and the fundamentally sound bargain it contains.

Most of his letter is in reference to a Washington Post article from the previous week, which examines in detail the obstacles and infighting which have arisen within Iraq's government, and which paints a picture of Iraq as moving further and further from the Bush administration's ideal strong central government.

The collapse of negotiations over this law is significant because it was supposed to be the crown jewel in Iraq's "political reconciliation." This is not just my take on the situation, this has been front and center of the White House's spin (on how peachy everything is in Iraq) for over a year now. Which makes the collapse relevant to the point of irony, right before President Bush addresses the nation on why we should spend more lives and money in Iraq.

Here is an extensive review of White House pronouncements on the subject, in a handy timeline [these are all taken directly from the White House's website].

President Bush was the first to bring the subject up, on 6/14/06:

"I've directed the Secretary of Energy to travel to Iraq to meet with his counterpart and identify ways we can provide additional support. It's up to the Iraqis to pass a hydrocarbon law, which they're now debating. It's up -- for the Iraqi government to decide what to do with the people's asset. Our advice is to be careful, and to develop it with the people's interest in mind."

The following are all highlights from Tony Snow's press conferences (emphasis added by me).

10/23/06
MR. SNOW: For instance, by the end of the year, there will be a hydrocarbon law. As you know, the share of petroleum receipts is an enormously important issue, not only economically, but politically within Iraq.

12/5/06
MR. SNOW: ...we've [the White House has] talked a lot about the hydrocarbon legislation. That's going to be voted on, we understand, this month.

1/16/07
MR. SNOW: It appears, for instance, that there is going to be a cabinet vote quite soon, maybe this week, on hydrocarbon law. They're working pretty aggressively and assertively also on other reconciliation efforts, including revisions to the de-Baathification law and the election law.

Q: Tony, on the same subject, can you just give a better sense of what you're watching for? There are no specific dates, they don't have a vote on this hydrocarbon law at a specific date. So is it just a sense that the Iraqis are doing their part, that you're watching?

MR. SNOW: No, I think -- what we take a look -- for instance, I've mentioned maybe the most important part right now is the hydrocarbon law, because that's one that takes the considerable revenues from oil and natural gas and distributes them equitably across the country. They're moving pretty rapidly toward passage of that, and that is enormously significant because it says to everybody, you've got a financial stake in the success of this country.

1/17/07
MR. SNOW: Within the last 24 hours, there has been progress on the hydrocarbon law.

1/25/07
MR. SNOW: ...[Prime Minister Maliki] has told the Council of Representatives that he wants the Council, during its current legislative session, which just has a couple more weeks to run, to pass a hydrocarbon law and also de-Baathification reform.

Finally, almost two months after his initial deadline for passage (not merely getting out of committee, mind you, but actual enactment) of the Iraq oil law... Mr. Snow proudly announced, on 2/26/07:

Good afternoon. We open with a bit of good news: The Iraqi Council of Ministers had passed -- or has approved the hydrocarbon law, which will be passed on to the Council of Representatives at sometime in the near future.

From a "Fact Sheet" on Iraq put out by the White House on 3/6/07:

Iraq's Council of Ministers approved a national hydrocarbon law that provides for an equitable distribution of oil revenues throughout the country. The draft law will need to be enacted by the Iraqi Council of Representatives when it returns from recess, but the prospects for passage are excellent because all the major parliamentary blocs are represented in the cabinet.

One month later, Dana Perino (filling in for Tony Snow) gave a press briefing with Dr. Ali Al-Dabbagh, billed as "Spokesman for the Government of Iraq." Here's what he had to say about the oil law on 4/13/07:

Q: Doctor, the administration here often cites progress on the national oil law and de-Baathification. Yet, those benchmarks have not been met yet. What is the progress report on those?

DR. AL-DABBAGH: The hydrocarbon law is already approved by the cabinet, and we are waiting on the revenue sharing law to be also submitted to the cabinet to be approved, and then simultaneously they will go to the council of representatives, in order to be approved.

Q: But it's been in that spot for a while. It's been approved from the cabinet. What's the time line for getting approved by the parliament?

DR. AL-DABBAGH: It has been submitted to the -- it's got a priority. The priority is in the house of representatives. They've got their priority. But we feel that this is very urgent, and the government do urge the council to approve it, along with the revenue sharing, which is very, very important. The de-Baathification, as you said, there are a draft -- four draft being submitted. One of them is the by -- presidency council and the cabinet council, and it is now in the council of representatives, along with the other three drafts, which they are going to get one draft in order to get it approved.

Q: So if you were to predict when those things would pass, what's the time line? A couple months, end of the summer, this year?

DR. AL-DABBAGH: We thought that 2007 is the year where all this important laws will be decided, also the election, government election as well.

Got that? Sometime this year, if they find the time.

Vice President Dick Cheney was the next to officially weigh in on the situation, and he appeared to begin the process of "walking it back" -- in other words, to lower the bar and lower expectations for the oil law ever becoming a reality. From 5/9/07:

Q: Thank you, sir. You said you were impressed by the responses that you heard from Prime Minister Maliki and his colleagues. Did they offer any specific commitments, particularly time commitments, in moving forward on some of the specific measures that you and other American officials have talked about; namely, hydrocarbon law, de-Baathification, provincial elections and constitutional reform?

THE VICE PRESIDENT: I believe that Prime Minister Maliki plans an address to the parliament this week on many of these issues - [cough] excuse me - and, of course, it's a political process that depends upon action by their legislative body. And but as I say, I do believe that there is a greater sense of urgency now than I'd seen previously.

Q: But no specific time commitments?

THE VICE PRESIDENT: It's difficult to do with our own Congress, let alone somebody else's.

White House Spokesman Tony Fratto walked this back even further, a few weeks later, on 5/21/07:

Q: Tony, you mentioned that when the President spoke to the Prime Minister this morning he got some updates on some of these key measures -- the hydrocarbon law and constitutional review. Are we getting -- is the President getting any commitments about when those things will happen?

MR. FRATTO: It's very hard to put a sense of timing on some of these things. Obviously, we want the Iraqis and the Iraqi parliament to move as quickly as possible. Progress on advancing these initiatives is not moving as quickly as anyone wants, and I think that includes Prime Minister Maliki and many members of parliament. So we don't have a specific time frame on that. We want to see them move quickly. Obviously, those are elements of benchmarks that we've talked about and that Prime Minister Maliki has talked about. We think they're essential for bringing peace and security and an equity feeling in a national Iraq that is, to a large part, based on those kinds of reforms. So we want to see progress on those issues.

Within two months the White House has gone from "the prospects for passage are excellent" to "we don't have a specific time frame," but "we want to see progress."

In July, the White House was forced to report on Iraqi benchmarks to Congress. Here's the relevant text, dated 7/12/07:

Assessment: The current status is unsatisfactory, but it is too early to tell whether the Government of Iraq will enact and implement legislation to ensure the equitable distribution of hydrocarbon resources to all Iraqis.
The Government of Iraq has not met its self-imposed goal of May 31 for submitting the framework hydrocarbon and revenue-sharing laws to the [Council of Representatives]. Although the [Kurdish] and the Shi'a parties have agreed to the text of the Revenue Management Law, Council of Ministers' approval has been delayed by a Sunni party boycott. The effect of limited progress toward this benchmark has been to reduce the perceived confidence in, and effectiveness of, the Iraqi Government. This does not, however, necessitate a revision to our current plan and strategy, under which we have assigned a high priority to this subject, and the process overall has continued to move forward.

So we're still "moving forward" despite being "delayed," and "it is too early to tell" whether they will even enact this law, so the "current status is unsatisfactory." Wow. Winston Smith would be proud.

Tony Snow, in a press conference the day after this report was released, is now suddenly averse to predicting when (if ever) this law will be passed. From 7/13/07:

Q: Well, specifically, do you think things like de-Baathification and their oil law will be achieved by September?

MR. SNOW: We're going to have to see. Again --

Q: Well, of course, but, I mean --

MR. SNOW: I'm not going to -- it doesn't matter what I think. I'm just not going to make prognostications on this. But also, the thing that -- there are others that you look for. For instance, how well is the presidency council working with the Prime Minister? Do you see signs of a political accommodation? If you do not have certain laws passed, do you see a greater sense of cooperation, cohesion and national identity among the various sectarian and regional groups within Iraq, reflected not only at the national level but also at the regional level? So there are going to be -- when you see the report in September, it not only is going to address benchmarks, but as it said, if you read the early parts of this report, there will be a more comprehensive assessment in taking a look at other factors also that will allow people to weigh the success of the surge.

This is the new spin, not to be confused with the old spin. Now the entire process is going to magically happen organically -- from the "bottom up." And then the Iraqis will finally greet us with flowers in the streets, perhaps. Tony continues this spin literally up to the end. From yesterday's press conference, which was Tony Snow's last (9/12/07):

MR. SNOW: Well, actually -- General Petraeus and Ambassador Crocker pointed out some interesting things that have been going on at the national level, without necessarily the enactment of national legislation. For instance, there's a lot of talk about the oil law, when do you come up with a hydrocarbon law. Well, it turns out the government has been redistributing oil and natural gas revenues to provinces --

Q: It's really their only revenue, right?

MR. SNOW: Well, but they've been doing it. You're asking about --

Q: At far lower levels than you wanted them to.

MR. SNOW: Look, they've started doing it sort of de facto. What we would like to see is an oil law passed. You have seen de facto de-Baathification. And the members -- lower levels of the Baath party have, in fact, been readmitted to civil society in other parts of Iraq. You have started to see a recognition that these matters of reconciliation have to take place. Do we want to see more political progress? Absolutely. Absolutely.

Got that? We don't actually need an oil law in Iraq, because they're going to work it out all on their own. Never mind the fact that the ministries are sectarian fiefdoms, never mind the rampant corruption, never mind the black market in oil that is helping fund the insurgents -- the free market is going to triumph, and they'll no doubt all sit down soon after and sing the Iraqi equivalent of "Kumbaya."

Hoo boy.

This story is likely going to be buried with the flood of other news today (Bush's nationally televised speech, the assassination of the Sunni sheik Bush met with a few weeks ago, Britney Spears' lipsynching, etc.), but it deserves more attention than it is going to get.

If Democrats were smart, they'd include this in their official response to Bush's speech tonight, as a milestone of utter failure of the Iraqis to politically reconcile now or any time in the near future. But that may require a lot more political savvy than Democrats have shown they are capable of mustering. Which is a shame, because it is such a glaring example of the White House's complete inability to predict the future in Iraq.

-- Chris Weigant

[Update:]

[This article has been cited on Salon's "The Blog Report" page. The citation appeared on Thursday, and is still up there as I type this on Saturday. On the left side of the page, look under "On The Radar" for (with a "Buzz") "Iraq Oil Law Doomed To Failure" (they seem to have forgotten to post my name, oh well...). This is the first time I've been cited on Salon, so I was happy to see it.]