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Because Republicans are scared right now. Their party loyalty, which has shown virtually no cracks at all during Bush's entire term in office, is about to shatter into a million little pieces. Democrats need to pick up those pieces, and build some good legislation with them. Right now.
All signs are pointing to (are you sitting down?) a landslide election for Democrats this year. We might not just win, we might win big. Very big.
And so all eyes in the American political world turn to West Virginia -- a state none of the pundits and pontificators know (or care) much about. They certainly never expected to be in a hotel room in Wheeling or Charleston in the middle of May this year. Because the conventional wisdom set in stone -- before anybody actually cast a primary vote -- was that "Super Duper Tsunami Tuesday" (as it was called back then, mercifully shortened now to just "Super Tuesday") was going to be the whole Magilla. On the not-as-super-Wednesday that followed, we would have a Democratic nominee, and could then focus on beating Rudy Giuliani in November.
My new rule is for uncommitted Democratic superdelegates. The rule is: you are not allowed to publicly bemoan how "divided" the party currently is, or tut-tut that "the nomination process has gone on too long," or even wish that "it resolve itself soon." In other words, if you're part of the problem, you're not allowed to get all vaporous over the fact that the problem exists. Period.
I sincerely hope the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) printed out the roll call of this vote, because it will be so easy to use against these 178 Republican House members back in their home district come re-election time. It's pretty hard to explain to your constituents why you're on the record as being against Mother's Day.
Project out the rest of the race, if Hillary stays in -- she wins West Virginia by a huge margin, and Kentucky and Puerto Rico by smaller margins. Obama wins Oregon, Montana, and South Carolina. We get to June 3rd and even if Michigan and Florida are seated as Hillary wants, Barack Obama is still going to have enough delegates to win the nomination. This is important -- Barack will still be in the lead in every single category even if Hillary gets her way with Michigan and Florida.
August 28th will be the final day of the 2008 Democratic National Convention. The keynote speaker will be the Democratic nominee for president. Unless Hillary Clinton soon acquires the ability to perform miracles, that nominee is going to be Barack Obama.
There are indeed elitists in this race for the presidency. But they're not out on the campaign trail. They're sitting behind television cameras telling the rest of us what they think that we think. Or should think.
So here we are, examining the "crucial" battleground states for the nomination... nearing the "back of the line" of the primary calendar. While I did lay out the possibility of an open convention in that article, I also shied away from making an actual prediction that it would happen. I'm still not ready to do that, as I still think there is a good chance the race will be over this Wednesday morning. Now (to prove I highlight my mistakes as well), I think this is something like the fourth or fifth time I have predicted "it's going to be over in a matter of days." To date, I've been wrong every single time. Nobody's perfect.
Yesterday, all 29 cargo ports on the West Coast were shut down, although it wasn't terrorism that did it. It was the longshoremen, in a one-day strike. Media coverage, beyond some local newspapers, was almost completely non-existent.