Today begins the second half of the campaign. Sure, Barack Obama is over the top of the "magic number" and is now the presumptive nominee of the Democratic Party, and sure, Hillary Clinton won't formally endorse Obama until Saturday, but by the calendar yesterday was the halfway point between the Iowa caucuses and the November election. With just over 150 days to go, I thought I'd take a quick look back at the campaign so far.

[OK, I admit, this is kind of "phoning it in" for a column, but I will be on an airplane today, so it's unavoidable. But check back tomorrow, as it will more than make up for today, I promise.]

The most striking thing about the 2008 campaign so far has been the mainstream media pundits being so wrong, so many times. Over and over again, all the talking heads and denizens of the Sunday political talk shows have largely agreed on things which were almost immediately proven false by events on the ground. Here (in very rough chronological order) are just a few of the nuggets of "conventional wisdom" served up as gospel truth by the chattering classes -- which all turned out to be laughable (full disclosure: I uttered a few of these myself, I admit) Feel free to add your own, if I've missed anything obvious.

 

Senators never get elected president. It's only happened twice, and it probably won't happen this time around.

McCain is finished.

Hillary is inevitable.

Obama will lose Iowa since it's all white.

Edwards will win Iowa, he's been practically living there for the last four years.

Ron Paul is a fringe candidate who will not be able to raise any money.

Huckabee doesn't have any money, so there's no way he will win Iowa.

The internet is nice, but the big-money donors will decide who the nominees are.

Young people will make a big noise, but they'll never actually turn out to vote in numbers that mean anything,

Al Gore will jump in the race and save the Democrats.

Newt Gingrich will jump in the race and save the Republicans.

Bloomberg will jump in the race as an independent.

Doesn't John Edwards' new haircut look nice? It'll surely help him in the campaign.

Nobody will make fun of Hillary Clinton's clothes.

Hillary Clinton is a woman, but no reputable journalist will ever make snide cracks about her cleavage.

The Rezko affair is going to torpedo Obama's chances.

Hillary will lose New Hampshire.

Polls always accurately predict who will win a state.

If a candidate (especially a woman) ever seems to cry on the campaign trail, their campaign is over.

Rudy Giuliani is the Republican frontrunner.

This election will be all about Iraq, and not about the economy.

Republicans have a pretty wide field of possible candidates, so the turnout for the primaries will be as high among Republicans as among Democrats.

Black people won't vote for Obama because he isn't 'black enough,' and Hillary will win their votes.

Hillary really didn't mean that when she said that.

Bill Clinton will be a big plus when campaigning for black votes.

Obama will win South Carolina, but it will be a close race.

Bill didn't really mean that when he said that.

Fred Thompson will be the next Ronald Reagan.

Giuliani was smart to stay out of the early contests.

Giuliani will win Florida big, because there are so many ex-New Yorkers there.

Edwards is weak, but will stay in until Super Tuesday.

Everything will be decided on Super Tuesday.

Republicans always choose a frontrunner early and fall in line behind him.

Obama should offer Clinton the VP spot at an early debate (that one I'm responsible for, sorry about that).

The media is giving Hillary an easy time of it.

The media is giving Barack an easy time of it.

Romney has it all wrapped up now.

Hillary has it all wrapped up now.

McCain and Romney will duke it out as frontrunners.

Edwards has so few delegates that his endorsement won't mean much.

Michigan and Florida don't mean anything.

Michigan and Florida will not be seated at the convention.

Michigan and Florida will figure out some way to re-vote.

It's OK to have superdelegates in the Democratic Party, because the winner will always be obvious long before their votes actually mean anything.

Hillary really didn't mean that when she said that.

Hillary will dominate Obama in the superdelegate category.

Hillary will dominate Obama in the pledged delegate category.

Edwards is having Obama and Clinton over to his house, and will endorse one of them right away.

Edwards will endorse Clinton.

Edwards' wife will publicly endorse Clinton, even if he doesn't.

Edwards will endorse on the Tonight Show.

Edwards will endorse long before his own state votes.

Edwards won't endorse anybody, and will remain neutral.

Ron Paul will run as the Libertarian candidate.

Obama will have to work to get the black vote.

Conservatives will never rally around McCain.

Rush Limbaugh will kill McCain's chances of getting elected.

Obama and Clinton will split all the caucus states after Super Tuesday, and she'll continue her lead in delegates.

The caucus states Obama is winning won't matter, because there are so few delegates in them.

Obama will never win Wisconsin, there aren't any black people there.

Obama will never win ten (or more!) contests in a row.

Republican crossover voting will never be a factor in a Democratic primary.

Hillary really didn't mean that when she said that.

Clinton will put Obama away by a huge victory in Texas.

Clinton has the momentum after Ohio and Texas, and Obama will now fade.

Clinton/Obama (take your pick) won't be able to keep raising money at this rate.

John McCain will never vote to allow torture of prisoners.

McCain had an affair with a lobbyist, and it will doom his chances.

Churches videotaping sermons and selling DVDs is a great way to make money, and to let the world know about your church and your wonderful pastor.

Eliot Spitzer is a rising star in the Democratic Party, and will probably run for president in a few years.

Bush's approval ratings just can't get any lower.

Hillary will put Barack as VP on her Dream Ticket.

Hillary really didn't mean that when she said that.

Hillary would never say that a Republican candidate is more qualified to sit in the Oval Office than her Democratic opponent.

Obama won't have to give a "speech about race" during the contest.

Obama is getting a lot of white, rural voters to vote for him.

McCain would never mix up who our enemies are in Iraq, since he's running on his foreign policy experience.

Hillary will never fire Mark Penn.

Hillary's negative campaigning was all Penn's fault, and now it will stop.

Hillary would never lie about something that she knows was videotaped for the American news media.

Hillary really didn't mean that when she said that.

Barack is doomed, Reverend Wright just killed his chance at the nomination.

Barack was right not to quit his church.

We'll never hear from Reverend Wright again until the campaign's over.

Pandering to the public on a gas tax holiday is going to reap lots of votes.

Barack's "bitter, cling to their religion and guns" comment will doom him, he'll never get the nomination now.

George Stephanopoulos is actually a journalist, not some hack from Bill Clinton's administration, and he will be a great debate moderator.

Charlie Gibson knows the difference between the general election and the primary election, and would never misquote the Constitution as a debate moderator.

If Hillary doesn't take Pennsylvania by 10 points, she'll drop out of the race.

Hillary's just staying in the race until (insert state name here), to exit on a victory.

Hillary really didn't mean that when she said that.

Obama has 50 superdelegates that will announce for him the day after (insert state name here) votes.

Since everyone knows the outcome of the (insert state name here) primary, it won't be big news when it happens.

The states that hold primaries later than Super Tuesday will never get any attention from the candidates or the media, since they'll be irrelevant.

The last states to hold primaries will never get any attention, as they'll surely be irrelevant.

Obama, with his origins and life story, could never be painted as an "elitist."

178 Republicans in the House would never vote against honoring Mother's Day.

The President of the United States of America would never be stupid enough to compare a Democratic candidate to Neville Chamberlain and bring up Hitler and the Nazis in front of Israel's parliament.

Hillary will never play the "victim" card or the "gender" card.

Democrats will never win Denny Hastert's seat in Illinois.

Democrats will never win the Mississippi 1st House district.

Republicans will, as always, raise more money than Democrats.

Both Obama and Hillary will not challenge denying Michigan and Florida's delegates.

There's no way it could ever go all the way to the convention.

With the party so divided, the "Dream Ticket" is the only way to go.

The electoral map will be pretty much like it was for the last two contests, with the exception of a few swing states.

It's all about Ohio and Florida in the general election.

Hillary will concede the night South Dakota and Montana vote, and give Obama the shining moment he deserves.

 

[Program Note: I will be away today and tomorrow. There will be no Friday Talking Points column tomorrow as a result. But this is good news, as I have something even better lined up. So don't miss tomorrow's interview article as it is the most enjoyable interview I have ever participated in. Check the site tomorrow, you won't be disappointed.]

 

-- Chris Weigant