Obama Gets His Bounce
This is going to be a disjointed column today, since political events are flying so fast and thick.
To begin with, it would have been nice in all the overwhelming hurricane coverage, and McCain coverage, and Bush coverage, and hurricane coverage, and Katrina coverage repeats, and more hurricane coverage from the television network news to have pointed out exactly where Bush and McCain were when Katrina hit three years ago. Journalists are supposed to take disparate storylines and tie them together, and this one is already tied up in a nice bow, just waiting for them to use on television. There's even a photo, direct from the White House website:
Can some news show please run this photo? This is not rocket science, folks.
Speaking of hurricane coverage, I saw last night on my local news a television anchor say one of the smartest things I've ever heard any television journalist say. He showed the video of some poor hapless NBC flunky (she obviously drew some sort of short straw), doing the usual television news standup for a hurricane -- standing outside in 110 m.p.h. winds! The poor woman almost took flight before our very eyes. And my local newsman said what any intelligent person would say (meaning, as I mentioned, it was the first time any television journalist has ever said it) -- "I don't know why they make people do these shots. Sooner or later someone is going to get killed doing one of these, and then they'll never do them again; but until that happens we will have these stupid shots for every hurricane."
So local news, at the very least, was more sane to watch last night than the national news. No surprise, really, but I had to share the moment, because I have been waiting for someone to say that for a very long time now.
Sarah Palin, and the Republican Party at large, continues to melt down in front of America's eyes. Although I still maintain, as I did yesterday, that it's not any one story (especially not the baby story) that is going to take hold with the American public, it's a wider theme -- incompetence. Palin's incompetence on the job, and much more importantly, John McCain's incompetence in picking and vetting her. Sure, she'll appeal to the Christian right wing, but the moderate and independent voters in the middle of the American spectrum are going to make up their minds that McCain picking her was a gimmick. And, to them, Obama's choice is going to look better and better as time goes by. Because of competence versus incompetence.
If the Republicans follow the traditional playbook for conventions, John McCain has until tomorrow afternoon, Minnesota time, to pick someone else. After that point, Sarah Palin will be the official vice presidential nominee of the Republican Party. So my guess is if McCain decides he made an enormous mistake, he's going to fix it in the next twenty-four hours, or Palin will be on the ticket in November. I'm betting she'll stay on the ticket, but at this point I could see it going either way. No matter what McCain does at this point, he's kind of damned if he does and damned if he doesn't.
Who would have thought, after this year's primaries, that the Republicans would be the ones with the tense, divided convention?
Which leads me to the main point of the column. The media, being impatient, always seems to forget the number one rule of opinion polls -- it takes some time. Especially with a three-day weekend in the middle. Obama gave his speech on Thursday night. John McCain actually did Obama a big favor (although this won't be made obvious for another few weeks) by announcing his radical running mate pick the next day.
The thinking, at the McCain campaign, was "this is great stuff -- we'll announce the day after Obama's speech, and step all over his news cycle." There have been many reports that the new folks (the Karl Rove minions) running McCain's campaign are obsessed with that oh-so-inside-the-Beltway game of "winning the daily news cycle."
And, to their credit, they did. The media, being pack animals, all flocked to the McCain story and gave Obama's speech short shrift. But this was the best possible thing for Obama. Because the public didn't have the media (for once) telling them what to think about the speech the next day. Or the day after. Or the day after that.
So a record 38 million Americans who watched Obama speak -- more than watched the opening ceremonies to the Olympics this year -- got to form their own opinions about Obama's speech.
Which they did. Apparently, they loved it.
They thought about it Friday, while scratching their heads over Sarah Palin. They thought about it all weekend, and then when they talked to pollsters who called, they told them what they thought.
And Obama got his "bounce" from the convention.
Many polls were released today. When averaged by RealClearPolitics, Obama is up a whopping 6.4 points -- Obama 49.2% to McCain 42.8%. Three polls have shown Obama at 50 or 51 percent, a new high for him.
This is the biggest lead he's had since the end of June. All of these polls started after Obama's speech.
Now, national polls are almost meaningless since we have the Electoral College, but the media loves to obsess over the numbers nonetheless, so it is indeed worth noting here. Also, convention bounces usually don't last. And, even more importantly, we've never had the conventions so close together, so McCain may get a bounce of his own. We won't know for a week, maybe two, whether this is a real trend in the electorate's thinking or not.
But it sure was nice to see this morning, I have to admit.
-- Chris Weigant
It is always interesting to me what the mainstream media chose to cover and chose to ignore. One might think that they were either incompetent or biased the way some stories are reported.
National polls are important because they influence voters in each state. The old self-fullfilling profecy syndrome.
...Stan
Hey, Chris!
You got your cake and you can eat it, too! I do hope you are watching The Daily Show right now.
...or, you know...whenever it comes on in your time zone...be very careful not to blink, though, because I don't want you to miss it!
Sorry, CW... But your "cake" message is a non-starter, in my not so humble opinion.
Sure, IN HINDSIGHT, having a "party" like that sends the wrong message.. But ONLY in hindsight.
In fact, by putting out this "cake" message, it simply gives the GOP the chance to brag about their CURRENT response to Gustav.
In effect, this message allows the GOP to respond with, "Yea, we made some mistakes with Katrina, as epitomized by John McCain's cake. But, there can be no doubt, with Gustav, that we learned from those mistakes."
Sorry, but any political message that relies on 20/20 hindsight to be effective smacks of pandering.
No offense...
Michale....
@CW
But this was the best possible thing for Obama. Because the public didn't have the media (for once) telling them what to think about the speech the next day. Or the day after. Or the day after that.
That's why I like your articles, we think alike in many ways. I was thinking the very same thing all day Friday watching the coverage.
@Michale
In fact, by putting out this "cake" message, it simply gives the GOP the chance to brag about their CURRENT response to Gustav.
Maybe to a point, true. But Gustav isn't going to be a big bonus for the GOP in my opinion, not as much as it could have been, simply because the storm thankfully fizzled out and moved a bit west. The two to three day hype over how bad this storm was going to be set the expectations so high, that when it did hit at only a Cat 2 and off to the west, as well as having the feeder bands some how leave New Orleans dry for hours and hours at a time, it gave a lot of people the opinion of "oh, well that wasn't a big deal after all".
Which of course is going to cause people to ignore the efforts of the administration in being better organized. The chatter around the office here is mostly "well everyone finally realized it's better to leave and not stay like morons". That was it. Nothing about preparations or organization. The biggest problem with Katrina and the administration happened after the storm. With this storm being so tame in comparision, they really didn't have the chance to gain a lot of visibility in their efforts.
So I think in the end this storm was a wash on what the GOP got out of it. They got to look like they cared, but there was still the reminder of how bad it was with Katrina that they didn't want people to think about. The only way I see that this could have been a huge plus is if the storm was really bad and the response after was superb and covered on TV. I'm glad it came out like it did though with the storm fizzling out.
I've been through a few hurricanes when I lived in Florida. Cat 1-2 aren't *that* bad, I've seen severe thunderstorms here in Ohio do worse than what some Cat 1's do in damage. But boy... Cat 3+ are terrifying things. I was in Port St. Lucie, Florida when Andrew went through. That was a real beast.
@BLaws
We're midway between Daytona Beach and St Augustine, about 10 miles from the ocean. Our area doesn't get hit often, but when it does, it's a doozy.
I see what you are saying about Gustav not being such a big threat and you are correct to an extent.
However, I disagree that it was the aftermath that was bungled by ALL the agencies. Local, State & Federal.
You can get by with a LOT of "oh shitz" in the aftermath, if your preparation was spot on. In other words, had the preparation been proper for Katrina, I doubt we would have seen a TENTH of the problems we did.
But, as with my initial post, it's easy to make such statements with 20/20 hindsight. Just as it is easy to make the claim that having a birthday celebration on the day Katrina hit was a bad move... IN HINDSIGHT...
But my point is still valid. The PREPARATION for Gustav was 200 times better than it had been for Katrina. The fact that it SHOULD have been (after living thru Katrina) doesn't negate the brownie points that the GOP will get (and, to a minimal extent, SHOULD get) from learning from the mistakes of Katrina.
It's rather ironic in a way, that Mother Nature has conspired with the GOP to blunt one of the biggest attacks against the GOP this election season. The Katrina response.
It's no wonder that the Democrats are a testy and surly bunch of late... They must feel like EVERYONE is conspiring against them. Even the planet. :D
Michale.....
Stan -
Yeah, it's the things (BIG OBVIOUS things) that they miss that really annoy me.
Elizabeth -
I missed it! Got a link to it online? DID HE USE THE PHOTO?!?
Michale -
It's one of those things that only would have worked on Monday or Tuesday night. You're right, the shelf-life of the cake has passed now. But for Pete's sake, didn't anyone at ANY news bureau ask "Where was McCain when Katrina hit? Where was Bush?"
BLaws -
This is one of those things poli-sci students will argue about for years, but I do indeed think that the Obama speech sunk in on its own, with very little filtering from the media, and that this helped Obama enormously.
I think the benefit was subliminal, no matter how hard the Republicans tried to look like compassionate, feel-your-pain... well, Democrats. The image was: "hurricane -- GOP -- remember Katrina?" That didn't help them much at all, I think, even without the photo.
Michale -
As for FEMA, it goes through cycles just like hurricanes. Although very few folks remember it, Katrina showed a FEMA that didn't work, and true, it's been improved since then... but this is the same cycle that happened under Clinton. Didn't they blow the response to a big one (maybe even Andrew, I forget), and then radically improve FEMA as well? Floridians know what I'm talking about, I would guess... I'm a little fuzzy on the details, but almost certain this same cycle happened on Clinton's watch.
Thanks for commenting, gotta run.
-CW
It's one of those things that only would have worked on Monday or Tuesday night. You're right, the shelf-life of the cake has passed now.
My point was that it's meaningless because it requires 20/20 hindsight to be effective.
but this is the same cycle that happened under Clinton. Didn't they blow the response to a big one (maybe even Andrew, I forget), and then radically improve FEMA as well?
That's kinda my point. Tragedies such as this don't bear the mark of Republicans or Democrats. To try and lay the blame at the feet of one party or another is simply nothing but political pandering..
I realize that ya'all are trying to win an election here. I simply decry the entire process that all but requires to demonize fellow Americans..
Michale.....
Chris,
I know you're a busy guy so here's a link for ya...
http://www.thecomedynetwork.ca/Default.aspx?a=b&u=1&d=1&c=CA&time=1220476365&hash=9201bd344aac3850bf5653548ed10c9c
It may not take you right there but it's close enough.
Yes, he most certainly did show THE photo...and then some...and dat's all I'm gonna say about dat! It was a quick clip so don't blink - it comes after the first commercial break of the September 2 show.
...leave it to the daily show, eh?
@Michale
We're midway between Daytona Beach and St Augustine, about 10 miles from the ocean.
Flagler Beach or Palm Coast? I lived in Daytona and Ormond by the Sea for 6 years while I went to college at ERAU.
Closer to Palm Coast, but in the outskirts..
Looks like we're dodging the bullet on Hanna, but Ike is now a Cat 4 monster and is expected to STAY that way until it comes close to FL.
I have a feeling that Ike is going to be a FLOYD twin that doesn't turn at the last minute. We rode out Floyd at our home which, at the time, was on a barrier island in St Augustine.
We lost everything we had in the Oregon Floods of '96 and have vowed never to leave our home again. We did evac our kids inland during Floyd. What a cluster-f*** that was. Took them 13 hours to travel what is normally a 1 hour trip...
But I digest... :D
Michale.....