At 12:39 PM (Alaska time) Democratic challenger Mark Begich led the incumbent (and convicted felon) Senator Ted Stevens by 2,374 votes -- an improvement of over 1,300 votes in today's tally. By my thumbnail estimates, there appear to be just over 10,000 ballots left to count, meaning that Stevens' defeat seems likely at this point.

Today was the day when the final 25,000 votes were supposed to be counted by the state of Alaska. Again, just from my off-the-cuff figuring, it appears that around 14,000 of these ballots have now been entered into the totals for both Begich and Stevens. Meaning Begich increased his lead by a net 1,300, out of just 14,000 votes cast. And from what I hear, the remaining votes to be tallied today come from two districts where Begich either ran even on election day, or had a strong lead over Stevens. Meaning it would be something of a shock now if Stevens reverses the trend to hang onto his seat.

Ever since the mail-in ballots and questioned ballots began to be counted, Begich has steadily picked up votes. He started 3,200 votes behind Stevens... which shrank to 1,000 behind... then Begich pulled ahead by only three votes... then up by 800 votes... and finally (last week) increasing that lead to over 1,000. With today's figures added in, Begich has picked up over 5,500 votes since the post-election counting began, which is even more impressive when you consider that only about 310,000-320,000 people voted in Alaska.

Which means, if Begich does win, that Democrats can now claim 58 votes in the Senate (56 plus the two independents). Two races remain to be decided -- Al Franken's cliffhanger race against Norm Coleman, and the runoff election in Georgia where Republican Saxby Chambliss is fighting to hold onto his seat. Meaning a 60-vote filibuster-proof majority is still within reach for Democrats.

I've been to some right-wing websites since the election (out of sheer curiosity), and Stevens is being excoriated with language usually reserved for liberals. Because they have figured out that if Stevens loses, then they are going to lose yet another Republican Senate seat, and as far as they're concerned, it didn't have to be this way. If Stevens had stepped down before the election, their reasoning goes, Sarah Palin would have been able to appoint a Republican replacement, who could then have run as an incumbent (and who likely would have beaten Begich). I can't say that I fault the logic of this scenario, but I will refrain from repeating the strongly-felt language they are using to describe it.

My guess is that Ted Stevens honestly never really expected he would lose. He has been the Senator from Alaska since before they became a state. It was probably inconceivable to him that any Democrat could have beaten him, felony conviction or no felony conviction. In other words, a simple case of "pride goeth before a fall."

In the next few hours, the final vote count should be posted. But it's looking like it's going to be a good night for Alaskan Democrats in general, and Mark Begich in particular.

[Note: No word yet on the other election results that were supposed to be posted today, the finalization of Missouri's presidential vote count. Maybe later tonight....]

-- Chris Weigant