What Is The Republican Plan If The Economy Gets Better?
The White House has, of late, been quietly expressing a bit of confidence that the economy is going to pick up in the last two quarters of this year. They aren't shouting it from the rooftops, exactly, but they have been publicly predicting that the recession will officially be over in the next six months or so. Which raises the question -- since the Republicans have pretty much doubled down on Obama's failure, what are they going to do if the economy gets better next year? When the midterm congressional election season gets under way in full force, what are they going to run on if people are happy with Obama's policies at that point?
Now, this all may seem a bit Pollyanna-ish to some. So allow me to be clear -- I am not (nor ever have been) an economist. I regularly admit my shortcomings in this area, unlike most pundits who seem to think they know what they're talking about (even when they quite obviously don't). So I have to rely on others for broad analysis and predictions about the state of the economy. Which means I listen to a lot of people on the subject, and measure what they say against what actually happens.
Which is why it is interesting to me that President Obama's team seems to think the country is on the verge of turning a corner. If they're right -- and I'm not saying they will be, just taking them at their word, mind you -- then this is going to alter the political landscape considerably next year. Which is worth examining, even if it does have a rosy-colored-glasses feel to it at this point.
Here's how it would work. The stock market is supposed to be a "leading indicator" for the economy. When it goes up, good times and growth follow. When it goes down, recessions follow. That's a vast oversimplification, but reduced to a nutshell, that's the theory. The job market, on the other hand, is a "lagging indicator," meaning when times have been good for a while, then new jobs appear afterwards. When times have been bad for a while, jobs disappear after a lag. Again, that's the theory.
Right now, unemployment is extremely high. But the stock market is going up. The optimistic scenario, then, begins with two things in the next few months. The first is a continued climb in the market, with the Dow making news in a month or two by breaking through 10,000 points. The second is that the stimulus money finally gets out into the economy. Obama's stimulus was criticized when it was passed for not getting the money out fast enough. This criticism continues today, in ever-increasing volume, from Republicans. But if you look at how the money was scheduled to get out the door, a lot of the "shovel-ready project" money was slated to go out starting this summer -- now, in other words. People are seeing the results of this, as they take summer road trips, because a lot of highway projects are now either beginning or are already in swing. So, in the next few months, this money will start to truly flow around the economy as it finds its way into people's pockets (those folks doing the highway construction, for instance). Meaning its effect will start to truly be seen in the third quarter of the year.
If the retail sector has a decent back-to-school season, and then a good Christmas season, then that will drive the economic numbers upwards, finally reversing their downward slide. As businesses do better than expected, the layoffs will slow, then stop, and then some time next year companies will begin to hire again, instead of firing people. Meaning the unemployment numbers will still be historically high, but they'll be getting better starting at some point next spring or summer.
Add to all of this a fact which kind of got lost in the Wall Street bailout debate -- the money we taxpayers shoveled at Wall Street, as I understand it, was in the form of a loan, not what people normally call a "bailout." It wasn't just handed out to anyone -- Wall Street, or the car companies, or anyone else -- it was loaned to them. And they're starting to pay it back. If this fact ever gets past the news media's ignorance, then it will show up in smaller-than-expected deficit numbers. This will ease some of the public anxiety about "runaway spending" in Washington. Obama will be able to say something like: "We loaned out 750 billion dollars, and have now been paid back -- with interest -- over 500 billion of that. We anticipate when all is said and done actually making a profit on the investment we made with taxpayer money."
This, if it ever happens, will go a long way towards calming people down, I predict.
Picture the American political scene a year from now, under some version of what I've laid out here. Unemployment going down, jobs reappearing, stocks are up, consumer spending rebounding. People in general feeling better about the present, and more optimistic about the future.
Of course, the White House could be bluffing everyone, and things could wind up being nowhere near this good next year. That has to be pointed out, lest you think I'm making an actual prediction rather than just taking them at their word and projecting out a year in a political "what if" exercise. I think that next year's elections are going to largely hinge on where the economy is, and it could indeed be much worse that what I've described here. But I truly wonder whether the right wing folks have done the same sort of projections, and come up with any answer other than "the economy will still be in the toilet."
Picture your average Republican politician next year, attempting to get re-elected to Congress. For the past year, the core argument they've been making will have been: Obama's economics (Obamanomics?) are a recipe for disaster and will fail and will drag this country down to destruction. The only answer is to elect more Republicans. Because Republicans must be given more power in Washington to stop this president's dangerous agenda for the future.
So far (to me, at least) this seems to be their campaign strategy. But what will they do if it turns out they're wrong? What are they going to do if things are better, and people think they're going to get better still? What will they be talking about if the economic recovery is demonstrably underway?
I'm sure they'll think of something.
-- Chris Weigant
What it basically comes down to is a track record..
I readily agree that, if the economy does turn around and we are all hunky dorky in 8-15 months, then the GOP will be devastated.. We will be looking at a Dem majority and a Dem in the White House for a long time to come, possibly for the rest of my life anyways...
BUT....
And, like my own, it's a BIG but... :D
The current Administration doesn't really have a track record in accurate prognostication. Time after time, the Obama Administration gave us a cup-is-half-full scenario and more often than not, the cup turned out to be not only spilled but shattered into pieces on the floor (Ooo watch yer step if yer barefoot!! :D)
So, while I freely acknowledge that the Republican Party would be utterly and completely nuked if the economy DOES become rosy in the next year or so, the chances of that actually happening are Slim and None and Slim just left....
Michale.....
Michale -
You'll notice that, as always when talking about the economy, there are a lot of caveats in there from me.
But I disagree about Obama's track record. I still say it is much too early to tell. When he introduced the stimulus, for instance, he always told his aircraft carrier story -- how a powerboat can turn on a dime, but something the size of the American economy just can't. The question -- and I still say it'll take approximately 6-12 more months to fully see the answer to it -- is "is the economy turning?"
Much is made of the unemployment projections they made back then. But, every single time Obama talked about the economy in the first three months of his term, he always said "it's going to get worse before it gets better" and "this is going to take some time to fix."
People ask me what I foresee for the midterms, and my answer is always the same -- it depends on the economy next summer. We'll see, we'll see...
-CW
Can't help thinking about that Pinky and the Brain cartoon when Pinky says, "Hey, Brain. What are we going to do tonight?"
And Brain responds: "The same thing we do every night. Try to takeover the world."
I always think to myself, surely Republicans will try to reform their message. And they do, they double down on extremism.
It will be interesting to see if they have finally driven a wedge between their extreme right-wing Christian base and the fiscal conservatives of the party.
- David
akadjian, I have a Pinky & the Brain episode you should see.
Chris, the leading indicators are in. The economy IS recovering. And what's more, by election time it will be clear that stimulus has an effect.
The real questions are what long-term deals Obama has made with the banks...and I noticed this item earlier:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/07/28/house-panel-votes-in-favo_n_246541.html
OK you guys,
If you can remember individual Pinky and the Brain episodes, maybe you can answer me a question. When writing Monday's column, a cartoon clip flashed into my brain, but I cannot remember where it comes from.
It's shown on a TV inside the cartoon, and whatever the characters are watching on television breaks for a commercial. The commercial's entire text, sung in a catchy, upbeat tune, consists of:
"Beer, beer, beer! Beer beer beer!
Beer beer beer beer, beer beer beer!
(etc.)"
But I can't remember where it's from. Not Beavis & Butthead, I don't think, not the Simpsons (even the Simpsons are more subtle than that), but I can't quite place it. Ren & Stimpy, maybe? South Park? Any help?
-CW
[The moderator is warning me we're getting off thread, but I am ignoring such impertinence...]
CW,
You'll notice that, as always when talking about the economy, there are a lot of caveats in there from me.
Sho nuff.. Point conceded...
But I disagree about Obama's track record. I still say it is much too early to tell. When he introduced the stimulus, for instance, he always told his aircraft carrier story — how a powerboat can turn on a dime, but something the size of the American economy just can't. The question — and I still say it'll take approximately 6-12 more months to fully see the answer to it — is "is the economy turning?"
Will all the talk of a THIRD Stimulus package being needed, I would say the answer to that is "No"...
Much is made of the unemployment projections they made back then. But, every single time Obama talked about the economy in the first three months of his term, he always said "it's going to get worse before it gets better" and "this is going to take some time to fix."
If it is a given that Unemployment would continue to rise at the onset of an economic recovery, if it is common economic knowledge that this is true, then here's the thing.
Why did Obama make the claim that, if Congress passes the Second Stimulus, unemployment would remain below 8%??
Either Obama and his vaunted economic team were ignorant of this (now) common knowledge economic indicator or Obama lied to the American People to sell the second stimulus package.
Either way, I DON'T GIVE A DAMN WHAT YOU THINK YOU ARE ENTITLED TO!!! Ooopss Sorry, off on a tangent.. :D
Seriously, either way, it doesn't say anything good about the Obama administration. It says that Obama and his team are liars or incompetent.
Chris, the leading indicators are in. The economy IS recovering. And what's more, by election time it will be clear that stimulus has an effect.
The ONLY indicator that indicates recovery is the Market rising above 9000.. Hardly enough to make such a grandiose prediction that recovery is right around the corner..
Michale.....
I'm stumped, Chris.
I remember Homer singing "When I was seventeen, I drank a very good beer ..." to the Sinatra tune.
And, looking on the Internet there's a South Park beer song. But it is completely different and starts "What is the malted liquor, what gets you drunker quicker, what comes in bottles or in cans!"
Ren & Stimpy is a good guess as they often had short cartoon within cartoon bits. The one that sticks in my mind is "Log".
We need a famous cartoon beer songs list!
- David
What Is The Republican Plan If The Economy Gets Better?
Personally, I think a MUCH better question is "What Is The Democrat Plan If There Is Another Attack That Dwarfs 9/11?"
But, we can save that question for another commentary.. :D
Since a tangent to TV is already established :D and since I mentioned 9/11 here is an interesting tid-bit of SciFi trivia...
On the new SciFi (I absolutely REFUSE to use that silly new moniker of theirs! SyFy. Indeed... ) Warehouse 13, here is a still from a scene...
http://anything-goes.us/temp/911.jpg
I posted this bit o trivia to the TV.COM Episode Guides forum and a moderator had the temerity to ask if there is any proof that this was not just some random coincidence. Go figger...
Anyways, back to economics and Republicans..
As an aside to CW, I dunno if you are still following your Beer Thread here.. But I just made an entry I think you and the missus will find interesting.. :D
Michale.....