Election Projection
So there are a few interesting primaries happening today. But, since we're all sitting around waiting for the returns, I'd like instead to talk about a generic idea, rather than specifics of individual races, and what it all means. Actually, that's the idea I want to talk about right there -- "what it all means." Because, as in all election seasons, 2010 so far looks to be just like every other election for the past twenty or thirty years (or even longer), in one basic respect -- the media is going to oversimplify what "the public is thinking" and likely draw some very wrong conclusions that will become accepted history in due time.
Now, I fully admit, I will likely be contributing to this flood of (if you'll excuse the expression) reading the election's tea leaves. But, unlike almost everyone else doing so, I at least am aware of (and admit) that the entire exercise is really one of what psychiatrists would call "projection." This, generally defined, is ascribing opinions you yourself have to others, when it may not (in reality) apply. In other words, projecting your own views onto others with no real evidence for doing so.
To be blunt, a lot of political reporting is based on such projection. As a politics-watcher, you sift through the stories you read, the interviews you watch, what your friends think, what blog commenters think, and what you yourself think, and you somehow come up with a "read" on "what's going on out there." And it shouldn't even need pointing out that these "reads" are often wrong. Such is the nature of guesswork, which is what a lot of political reporting really is, when you get down to it.
Now, the more scrupulous will pay attention to public opinion polls, rather than just what they hear at well-heeled Washington cocktail parties (which, sadly, is where a lot of Washington "conventional wisdom" from politicians and reporters alike comes from). But even public opinion polls are inherently flawed, due to their very nature. The only way to really understand what "the voters are thinking" in any particular election would be to actually ask them -- with no multiple-choice answers provided -- "Why did you vote the way you did?" Call up the scientifically-adjusted polling sample (which, it has to be said, also has its problems with methodology), and then write down what people say, and then sift through all of this data and try to identify loose trends among the answers.
But that is simply too much work. It would take a lot longer, and a lot more effort, to conduct a poll in such a fashion. Which leads us to multiple-choice answers. But this method has large problems as well. Take the health reform debate, for example. After the public option was jettisoned from the bill, a lot of people on the Left starting telling the pollsters they were against the bill. But very few pollsters bothered to ask the followup question which they really should have asked: "Do you not support the current bill because it is too strong, or because it is too weak?" This is just one example of how multiple-choice questions can give misleading results, which are then used by pundits everywhere to claim things which are a lot more subtle than they've noticed.
The mainstream media has also fallen in love with cutesy labels for "the key voter" in any particular election, often aided and abetted by politicians with their own spin of the situation. Nixon was (in my memory) probably the first to attempt this, with his "Silent Majority." Later, the "Moral Majority" (or, more generically, the "Christian Right") had its heyday. Sometimes these labels are personified, as with the "Reagan Democrats," or personified in a different way as "Soccer Moms" or "NASCAR Dads." But these labels are largely media creations. I don't know of a single woman (at least, before the media began batting the term around) who self-identified as a "Soccer Mom," for instance. The mainstream media, in its relentless pursuit of the overly-facile storyline, gloms onto these terms and touts them as "the most important factor" in any given election. But this doesn't mean they're accurately portraying reality, just that they've managed to pigeonhole voters in a way they feel comfortable with.
This time around, there are a few obvious contenders for the "most important 2010 voter" label. There are, of course, the "Tea Party Voters." Democrats are desperately trying to spin (and they could be right, who knows?) the feeling "out there" as an "anti-incumbent" feeling (as opposed to an "anti-Democratic-Party" feeling). Some completely arbitrary aspect may get latched onto by the media as well (such as driving your kids to either a soccer game or a NASCAR race, for instance).
The only thing for certain, at this point, is that one or another of these labels will become conventional wisdom of "what the voters are feeling" for the 2010 election. And I will, at some point during the election campaign or afterwards, likely start using the labels as well, tossing them around in just as cavalier fashion as the rest of the pack. The herd mentality in the media world is almost impossible to resist, at times, so I can't swear here and now that I'll totally eschew whatever labels are bandied about this election cycle -- because I just know I'll slip up at some point. Nobody's perfect, in other words.
But I can promise to, at the very least, attempt to examine the labels with a lot more scrutiny than most political pundits. Because I really do believe that such oversimplification is not a valuable thing. I think, instead, that it can mask what really is going on "out there" with the voters.
So whoever wins the primaries in Kentucky, Pennsylvania, Arkansas, and elsewhere, I promise not to attempt shoehorning them into some grand design which I have already decided upon. Because (for instance) what happens with Rand Paul may be entirely different than what happens with Marco Rubio (not to pick on the Tea Partiers, it was just the first example which sprang to mind). This may lead to less definitive articles than you may find elsewhere, I realize, but I think it's important to try to dig a little deeper than what the mainstream media decrees, when it comes to "voter feeling." And, most importantly, I will try to use the phrase "I really don't know what the heck is going on out there" when appropriate. No matter what my personal feelings are, I will try my hardest not to project these feelings on others, with no solid evidence for doing so. In other words, I will continue to do election projections, but attempt to keep my election projection to a minimum.
-- Chris Weigant
Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant
Heheheh. There will be the obvious spin from both parties. And it will be interesting to see which story the MSM backs.
But I'm interested in what is really going on.
So far it seems to be an "anti incumbent" crowd. Both Republicans and Democrats.
But perhaps this is because the base is who tends to vote in primaries. And the base of each party is not very happy w/ many of the incumbents.
Now this could translate into the general election as the base may be the biggest turnout in a non-Presidential election year.
Or it couldn't. Will be interesting to see.
I'll do some unofficial polling of my conservative friends from N. Kentucky (completely scientific and involving beer, of course), but my suspicion is that they see Grayson as a party insider and they like the supposedly "more authentic" Rand Paul. Though they probably know more about his father than him.
-David
p.s.
@Elizabeth
I only wish I could've seen the webcam pic of "me" and the volcano :).
DAVID!!!!!
Welcome back!! :D
I have chilled a little while ya were gone...
"No, not really. I can't back that up."
-Dr Evil, AUSTIN POWERS, The Spy Who Shagged Me
:D
So far it seems to be an "anti incumbent" crowd. Both Republicans and Democrats.
Perhaps...
But do you know how many GOP seats are threatened by a DP challenger??
Wait for it.... Wait for it....
ONE.....
It's become plainly and clearly obvious that this "anti-incumbent" feeling is also a testimonial on the Obama Administration..
Obama is 0-4 in getting his chosen ones elected...
Can't wait for Nov 3 to see who is right and who is left.. :D
Michale.....
This, generally defined, is ascribing opinions you yourself have to others, when it may not (in reality) apply. In other words, projecting your own views onto others with no real evidence for doing so.
It's called "Wish-Casting"... It's a common malady amongst meteorological types.. :D
We all do it.. Some more than others.. :D
Michale.....
Heheh. It's good to be back, Michale.
I think what is happening is that the Democrats are getting better at primaries. Was very happy to see Joe Sestak win in Pennsylvania and Bill Halter do well in Louisiana.
These are candidates who will fight more for progressive ideals.
What I'd like to see is Democrats doing a better job of winning in the arena of ideas. This seems to be where people like Rand Paul did well. He brought more ideas to the table than his opponent. (Ideas I disagree with, but nonetheless, ideas.)
I think the Dems need to do a better job of branding themselves as the party of balance. A party that will work to balance the interests of both business and the people.
Right now, their brand still suffers. They are still largely defined by the opposition as the party of big government. This is not what they stand for, but it is how they are defined.
If people know what they stand for, I think they would have more support in a general election. More on this later as I have a lot of work to catch up on.
Cheers
David
Very well reasoned points..
One minor nit to pick...
Right now, their brand still suffers. They are still largely defined by the opposition as the party of big government. This is not what they stand for, but it is how they are defined.
It's their actions that are defining them, not any outside influence..
As I posted to LD in a previous commentary, Obama and the Democrats have more than quadrupled the deficit in less than two years of governing..
With THAT ^^^^ kind of stat (hopefully the graph displayed properly), it's no wonder the Democrats are being defined as BIG GOVERNMENT.
Michale.....
GRRRRR
Of course, it didn't display properly.. :(
http://blog.heritage.org/wp-content/uploads/2009/03/wapoobamabudget1.jpg
There's the graph...
Michale.....
Democrats are desperately trying to spin (and they could be right, who knows?) the feeling "out there" as an "anti-incumbent" feeling (as opposed to an "anti-Democratic-Party" feeling).
Yet, as I pointed out to David above, there is only ONE race where a GOP'er is threatened by a DP challenger..
Yet, there are more than 20 races where the reverse is true..
Ergo, the LOGICAL assumption is that it IS an Anti-DP feeling..
Or, maybe that is just more "wish-casting"... :D
Michale.....
It could just as easily be argued that Republicans are the party of big government.
They took us into 2 wars which have cost about a trillion dollars so far. They increased the power of the Presidency and first began the stimulus package.
But my point is not to get into a back and forth about Dems vs. Republicans.
Just to ask the question, who gets seen as "big government"?
Democrats.
Why? Because conservatives have done a better job at branding.
If they want to change this, the Dems need to define how they see government and it's role. And brand themselves this way.
If you asked the average Joe on the street what's the Democratic view of government, I'd bet they couldn't tell you or they would give you the answer that a conservative would - "bigger government".
This is a real problem for Democrats. Because perception is fact for many people.
And that's why I think Democrats need to talk about the role of government as making sure "the economy works for all".
This is their differentiator: balance. Because the conservative view is that government should primarily benefit the wealthy.
Crap. Now I've really got to go work :)
-David
You didn't address at all why the average Joe sees the Democrats as "Big Government"...
It has nothing to do with "Branding"...
It has EVERYTHING to do with the fact that Democrats have quadrupled the deficit to provide more entitlements and the like..
Like I said... The Democrats are scene as "Big Government" not because of branding or perception but rather because of the actions of the DP to MAKE a "big government"...
The facts are self-evident...
Michale.....
Like I said... The Democrats are scene as "Big Government" not because of branding or perception but rather because of the actions of the DP to MAKE a "big government"...
if that's the case, then BOTH parties should be seen as parties of "big government." Dems are the party of big government that tries to pay for it and improve it (occasionally succeeding, e.g. clinton)...
... while Republicans are the party of self-hating big government. they speak against the government, but somehow manage to make it even bigger, more expensive and less efficient, then blame the failings of government in general for their own personal failings (or as you yourself said, the party of do what i say, not what i do).
neither party has earned much trust in recent decades, and most are owned by corporate interests. but the democrats, despite their myriad failings, have been the party least likely to screw things up completely and utterly. in today's political climate, that's about the most ringing endorsement i could come up with.
neither party has earned much trust in recent decades, and most are owned by corporate interests. but the democrats, despite their myriad failings, have been the party least likely to screw things up completely and utterly. in today's political climate, that's about the most ringing endorsement i could come up with.
Boy, aren't we the ones to come up with the political slogans, eh?? :D
Vote Democrat... They are the least likely to screw things up domestically..
or
Vote Republican. They'll screw the pooch on domestic issues, but at least the country will be kept safe from terrorist attacks...
Yer right.. Not the most ringing of endorsements for EITHER Party.. :D
Michale....
I have little experience with the ‘anti-incumbent crowd’ except for my less than pleasurable encounters with them at the Huffington Post. Based solely on those interactions and what I can gather from the rest of the media, I can only conclude that the apparent disenchantment with incumbents is premised on largely inaccurate perceptions of what has happened over the course of the last couple of years - particularly having to do with the financial crisis and how it is being resolved.
The funny thing is that most of this faux populist anger is being directed at an administration that has been in a constant struggle to clean up a monumental mess - on any number of fronts - left behind by the previous administration and has been making progress. What really surprises me is the degree of cynicism that is being displayed by so-called progressives and other Democrats since almost from the day Obama/Biden were sworn in.
It seems to me that it is just easier for people to allow their healthy skepticism to rise to the level of irrational cynicism and outrage than it is to form a clear understanding of the complicated issues and difficult challenges that face this administration and all of us.
P.S. Welcome back David - and, get back to work!
So, you’re saying that wasn’t you on the edge of the volcano? Did you make it to Iceland alright?
I’m still waiting to get to Hamburg and, with any luck, the Iceland volcano - which I still can't pronounce - will allow for a late June/early July trip.
Elizabeth,
If you watch the television show COPS, you would think that almost all crime in America is committed by black people.
And if you watch the news, you'd think everyone's angry with Obama. I don't think that's the case. I think there's some frustration from the left that he's not acting aggressively enough and a great deal of puffed up right wing outrage. But all in all, if there was another election right now, I don't see a competitor strong enough to challenge him.
But I think you're right in that some amount of patience is going to be required. It's not as simple as just electing Obama and being done with it. Republicans and many Democrats have bought into neo-conservative economic philosophy and they will want to keep it in place. And did I mention they spend a lot of money on elections?
Everyone seems to recognize that there's a problem in government. But there's so much disinformation that there's a great deal of confusion around what this problem really is.
I think this, more than anything, explains the election results yesterday.
This post would not be complete w/o a Biden reference so I will say I was happy to see him talk about Arlen Specter. He talked about how courageous Specter was to vote for the recovery act and switch parties. If Specter had been able to say what Biden said, he wouldn't have lost the election.
http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalpunch/2010/05/vp-biden-on-sen-specters-primary-defeat-one-of-my-closest-friends-who-served-pennsylvania-with-deter.html
Cheers
-David
p.s. We lost a day on the way over. All flights into Reykjavik were canceled. So we flew to Glasgow. And then back to an airport in Akureyri, Iceland. From there, it was a 6 hour bus ride to Reykjavik. Epic. And beautiful.
The Icelanders don't feel that the volcano is going to stop anytime soon. But the ash is heavier than initially. So it doesn't seem to be rising as high. And a lot seems to depend on the winds. So hopefully it'll be better by late June!
David,
Thanks for the Biden article - I hadn't seen anything about his reaction to the Specter loss. The two of them go a way back and Biden had been working on Specter's conversion back into the Democratic fold for a long time.
Specter was one of the more colourful characters in the Senate but it is probably true that Sestak will be a much stronger candidate in November and will, with any luck, hold onto that seat. I understand that Specter has already endorsed him!
I can imagine that the scenery in Iceland is breathtaking. And, you kind of lucked out with the disruption in your travel plans - you were probably able to see a lot more of the landscape than you otherwise would have.
I guess I'll be keeping one eye on those volcano webcams until I go and just hope for the best.
Ya know what is really interesting???
Ya'all crow about Crist's win, thereby holding on to John I-Never-Met-Pork-I-Didn't-Like Murtha's seat for the Democrats..
But no one mentions HOW Crist beat the GOP'er for that seat??
He did it by campaigning to the RIGHT of the GOP'er..
Yep, you heard me right. Crist won the seat by beating up on Obama and CrapCare...
Matter of fact, ALL of the election victories of the past year or so have come from candidates who slammed Obama and his reckless so-called "leadership" and spending...
If ever there was an indication of what the mid-terms will be like, THAT is it..
Those who win, DP or GOP, will win by slamming Obama and his administration...
Michale.....
Michale [15] -
Hey, I wrote about it the very next day! Read Wednesday's article again, it's in there. Oh, and it's "Critz" -- "Crist" is the Florida guy. I know, I know, it's already giving my spell-checker fits (or should that be "fitz"?).
-CW
Thanx for the correction.. I knew when I wrote it that 'Crist' didn't feel right..
As for Weds article?? Gimme a break!! I barely remember what happened this morning, let alone a couple days ago! :D hehehehe
But all that being said, it WILL be interesting to see how far Dems will go to distance themselves from Obama...
Michale....