Missile Launch West Of Los Angeles?
[UPDATED BELOW -- 6:45 P.M., November 9, 2010]
A missile apparently launched out of the ocean 35 miles west of Los Angeles last night, and the Pentagon has no idea what or whose it was. Now, I realize that we've all gotten a bit blasé over such things since the end of the Cold War, but this should really be front-page news, don't you think? If anyone either in the military or outside of it (a private American contractor who builds missiles, for example) got permission for such a launch, the Pentagon really should know something about it -- which they appear not to. Because if this was merely a matter of missed communications, that's one thing -- but any other plausible reason would be truly alarming. And the lack of knowledge at the Pentagon is disturbing, to say the least, when we're talking missiles being launched that close to one of America's biggest cities.
Local CBS television news station KCBS shot the video, from a helicopter. They are estimating the launch was 35 miles off the coast, and roughly northwest from Catalina Island. The video is striking -- especially the size of the contrail. This is no model rocket launched off a party boat by some hobbyist -- this looks (to the admittedly untrained eye) like a real military missile launch.
But the really shocking part is the military's inability to explain what happened. From the article which broke the story from KCBS:
A Navy spokesperson tells News 8, this wasn't its missile. He said there was no Navy activity reported in that part of the region.
On Friday, November 5, Vandenberg Air Force Base launched a Delta II rocket, carrying the Thales Alenia Space-Italia COSMO SkyMed satellite, but a sergeant at the base tells News 8, there have been no launches since then.
News 8 showed the video to Robert Ellsworth, former U.S. Ambassador to NATO and a former Deputy Secretary of Defense.
He said it didn't appear to be a Tomahawk missile and said it would be safest to wait for definitive answers to come from the military.
Based on pure speculation, however, Ambassador Ellsworth said, with President Obama in Asia, perhaps this could have been a show of our military muscle.
"It could be a test firing of an intercontinental ballistic missile from an underwater submarine, to demonstrate mainly to Asia, that we can do that," he said, stressing that it was just a theory.
The Associated Press had some further information today, but all the information was of a negative nature, and not a full explanation:
"Nobody within the Department of Defense that we've reached out to has been able to explain what this contrail is, where it came from," Pentagon spokesman Col. Dave Lapan said.
Lapan said that "all indications" are that the Department of Defense was not involved within the mystery object, and that the contrail might have been created by something flown by a private company.
Normally any missile test would require notification so that mariners and pilots could be warned or air space closed, but that may not have been done in this case, Lapan said.
"It does seem implausible, and that's why at this point the operative term is 'unexplained'," he said. "Nobody ... within the Department of Defense that we've reached out to has been able to explain what this contrail is."
Missile tests are common off Southern California. Launches are conducted from vessels and platforms on an ocean range west of Point Mugu.
The North American Aerospace Defense Command, or NORAD, issued a statement jointly with the U.S. Northern Command, or NORTHCOM, saying that the contrail was not the result of a foreign military launching a missile. It provided no further details.
"We can confirm that there is no threat to our nation, and from all indications this was not a launch by a foreign military," the statement said. "We will provide more information as it becomes available."
NORTHCOM is the U.S. defense command and NORAD is a U.S.-Canadian organization charged with protecting the U.S. from the threat of missiles or hostile aircraft.
I'm sorry, but NORAD's "from all indications" does not exactly fill me with confidence. It sounds awfully close to: "Well, it didn't hit anything, so what's the big deal?" From the angle of the sunlight in the video, the missile looks to be heading to the northwest, give or take a few compass points. There is, indeed, nothing out in that direction than open ocean for quite a ways. But what is telling is that nobody seems to have even answered the basic question "where did it land?" yet.
So, to review: the Pentagon isn't even sure a missile launched, and have suggested it may even be an airplane. NORAD is saying there is no threat to our nation, but they'll only go so far as to say "...from all indications this was not a launch by a foreign military." NASA doesn't launch from sea, so we can probably scratch them off the list as well. Normally, when missile launch tests are carried out, pilots and boaters are warned about it, which doesn't seem to have happened in this instance.
This leaves only a few possible answers for what happened, if you assume it was indeed a missile and not a plane making that contrail:
(1.) A foreign government snuck a submarine very close to L.A., and then fired off a missile as a warning shot across America's bow, in a very literal sense.
(2.) An American submarine launched a missile, perhaps because they were running a test and didn't realize the missile was actually live and not in test mode.
(3.) An American missile contractor launched a test missile, but forgot to warn everyone or even get the necessary permission ahead of time.
(4.) A combination of (2.) and (3.) -- either the contractor told the Pentagon about the test, and someone in the Pentagon forgot to pass it along; or the contractor was running a test of the firing mechanism, and accidentally shot the missile off instead of it staying in test mode.
(5.) The Mexican drug cartels now not only have submarines, but subs armed with missiles.
(6.) Aliens have landed on the sea floor off Los Angeles and just sent a message rocket to their ship in orbit, with samples of Earth life on board.
(7.) The evil James Bond villain Stromberg (from The Spy Who Loved Me) isn't dead after all, and has built a new, missile-equipped undersea lair off the California coast.
(8.) The dolphins have evolved into a super-race, and boy are they pissed off.
OK, I fully admit that those last four are probably not the right answer (but you never know, do you, now?). The first one is also not very likely, because if a country like Iran or North Korea (for the sake of argument) had the technology and moxie to pull off such a warning shot so close to American shores, one would assume that they would right now be exploiting this in the world press, to get maximum propaganda value out of it. OK, China... maybe not. China could arguably pull this off and not have any need to brag about it, but it's still pretty far-fetched that this could happen at this point in time.
Which leaves us with either (2.), (3.), or (4.) -- somebody somewhere screwed up on what should have been a routine test launch. This is the most likely answer, and within the next few days we should hear a sheepish admission from someone in authority as to the exact nature of the SNAFU (sorry for using this military term, but when it fits, it fits).
But in these troubled times, it seems to me that we should be doing a better job than this. It is now over 24 hours after the news chopper caught this launch on video, and no explanation has been issued by the United States military as to what, exactly, happened so close to Los Angeles. People in New York City rightfully freaked out when Air Force One was flown close to the city for a photo op a few years ago, because they weren't warned about it ahead of time. It seems an unexplained missile launch should bring a similar level of scrutiny as to whose bad decision this was. And if it was merely an airplane, then let's please see some evidence of that fact.
I remember seeing a cruise missile test fly over my house, way back in the 1980s. It was disturbing on a number of levels, not least that I hadn't been aware such a test was taking place. We all squinted to make sure there were American markings on that missile from our backyard, I can promise you that. Of course, this was back in the Cold War, when the threat of Soviet missiles flying overhead was a very real worry for American citizens.
Nowadays our worries are different, because our possible enemies have a more limited ability to pose such threats to America. But that makes this lack of official explanation all the more mystifying. After all, if North Korea -- or even China -- were capable of pulling off such a "warning shot," it could totally change our military situation overnight. An enemy capable of getting this close to L.A. could also get just as close to New York City, or Washington D.C. Which means we really deserve a serious and detailed explanation as to what happened last night off Catalina Island.
[Note: I contacted the Pentagon press office prior to writing this article, but they had not responded by the time I went to press. If they do get back to me, I promise I will update this article to let everyone know what they had to say.]
[UPDATE:]
From the Pentagon press office, the full text of the statement by the Acting Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense, Colonel Dave Lapan:
While there is nothing at this time that leads the Department of Defense to believe this is a missile launch, the department and other US government agencies with expertise in aviation and space continue to look into the condensation trail (CONTRAIL) seen and reported off the coast of southern California on Monday evening.
All DoD entities with rocket and missile programs reported no launches, scheduled or inadvertent, during the time period in the area of the reported contrail. NORAD and USNORTHCOM confirmed that it did not monitor any foreign military missile launch off the California coast yesterday and has determined that there was no threat to the US homeland.
In addition, the FAA ran radar replays from Monday afternoon of a large area west of Los Angeles. Those replays did not reveal any fast-moving, unidentified targets. The FAA also did not receive reports of any unusual sightings from pilots who were flying in the area Monday afternoon.
If any new information comes to light in the coming days, we will update the press and public.
-- Chris Weigant
Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant
Foreign doesn't have to mean that a country did it. It could have been some freelance billionaire playing with really big fireworks.
Just because branches of the military that talk to the public don't know anything, that doesn't mean it wasn't done intentionally by No Such Agency of the US government. It doesn't have to be a sub: it could be a surface ship, or a floating missile silo dropped off by a ship. China knows we can fire missiles from subs, but maybe they didn't know we could do it from where they didn't think we had one.
dsws -
Hoo boy. And what billionaire would have a grudge against California right about now?
(cough, cough... Meg Whitman... cough)
Maybe I should change that to "Meggles' undersea lair"...
Heh. Where's James Bond when you need him?
:-)
-CW
This is surreal to say the least.I can't find another source for this story.Is Meg Whitman that upset that she wasted another 140 Million?
This is no model rocket launched off a party boat by some hobbyist -- this looks (to the admittedly untrained eye) like a real military missile launch.
I can assure you that to this trained eye (spent several years at Vandenberg and saw many a missile launch up close and personal) this was an ICBM launch. No two ways about it..
TPTB are trying to pass it off as a Jet contrail..
Sheeya, right... I may have been born at night, but it wasn't LAST night...
(8.) The dolphins have evolved into a super-race, and boy are they pissed off.
That one made me laugh.. :D
They probably are sick and tired of being mistaken for tuna.. :D
(1.) A foreign government snuck a submarine very close to L.A., and then fired off a missile as a warning shot across America's bow, in a very literal sense.
My money is on this one.. China is royally pissed about the US monetary maneuverings and is telling us in no uncertain terms that they (the Chinese) would be very happy to take an economic war and make it a real war. AND that they (the Chinese) have the power to do it...
Anyone ever read or see HUNT FOR RED OCTOBER?? Imagine the consternation if the Chinese or the Russians can park a sub 35 miles off our coast and perform missile drills and NO ONE knows it's there till the missiles start flying.. Less then 2 mins warning, if my estimates are accurate.
dsws,
It doesn't have to be a sub: it could be a surface ship, or a floating missile silo dropped off by a ship.
It definitely wasn't a ship.. I know of no ship in our arsenal that is capable of launching an ICBM. And it doesn't make sense to keep it a secret. As we learned very well in Dr Strangelove, a nuclear deterrent is ONLY a deterrent if it is known...
A floating missile silo?? Now THAT's an interesting concept.. I have never heard of it, but it would be a lot easier to conceal than an entire ICBM equipped ship..
Hmmmmmmmm
Now THAT brings up some interesting possibilities.. Imagine hundreds of this floating silos deployed, stealth materials and activated like mines..
Whooaaaaaa... That's pretty kewl... :D
Michale.....
This is the most likely answer, and within the next few days we should hear a sheepish admission from someone in authority as to the exact nature of the SNAFU (sorry for using this military term, but when it fits, it fits).
Yea... But will that be the REAL story???
I had a little time to think about this during my shower.. (sorry about the mental picture.. :D)
It IS pretty weird how there doesn't seem to be much interest in this.. Maybe it, as you say, the sign of the times.. Back in my military hay day, something like this would have panicked Americans all the way up to the Oval Office..
Have we become so blase' that we think, "Huh?? Unknown missile launch 35 miles off the coast?? hoo hum... Should I have a Big Mac or a McRib???"
I have also had time to contemplate my theory.. It would seem that, if it HAD been a Chinese launch the readiness of the US military would reflect that. You can't hide deployment orders of such a scale that an enemy missile launch would require.
I would HATE to think that our military leaders simply don't know..
That's likely the scariest scenario of all...
Michale.....
Michale
a nuclear deterrent is ONLY a deterrent if it is known.
We have plenty of declared deterrent, for now. But we well might develop more in secret, so as to be a jump ahead when someone else develops new countermeasures or new threats. Keeping it secret makes it harder for them to either copy it or develop countermeasures.
dsws,
Logical...
Michale.....
Since reading this post last evening I have been trolling the news for more info;alas no one seems very concerned so the best I can surmise is that it is some sort of secret test that went awry.Having lived in Central Florida for sometime now I have become accustomed to watching various launches of missiles and it definitely looks like a missile launch to me.I don't hold with any conspiracy theories as most are either juvenile and or illogical.
My favorite speculation was that some people were speculating that it was a model rocket of some sort. As a model rocket enthusiast I have to say that would have been a helluva model rocket. Of the Meg Whitman variety ... heheheh :)
It really doesn't look like a jet airplane either. That seems to be the gub'ment story.
I would have liked to be a fly on the wall when someone's butt got chewed out.
Now I'm going back to enjoying my McRib ... :)
-David
p.s. The world's largest model rocket launch ...
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2009/04/090427-worlds-largest-model-rocket.html
akadjian
That was a spectacular launch.No matter how many rocket launches I see they still bring out the awe of a nine year old boy.:)
That was a spectacular launch.No matter how many rocket launches I see they still bring out the awe of a nine year old boy.:)
I know exactly what you mean. It amazes me every time. As if the laws of physics might let me down. And then, everything works and you remember how cool it was. Better than you remembered even.
And if you have kids with you who've never see a launch, even better.
Michale -
I thought you'd like (7.) the best, personally. Hey, I even provided a photo link!
:-)
-CW
CW,
I thought you'd like (7.) the best, personally. Hey, I even provided a photo link!
I actually DID like #7 better, but the picture looks too much like *MY* Evil Underground Lair, so I choose #8 to throw all of you off the scent... :D
Heh... Looks like it was US Airways 808 from Honolulu to Phoenix. Someone checked the flight schedule then photographed the same plane the next day. Pretty much the same contrail. Well it was a good one while it lasted...
They're saying it was an airplane. From the bits of video I've seen, that seems like the most likely possibility. No one seemed to be presenting any strong reason to think it isn't. They just talked about the missile without addressing the possibility of an ordinary aircraft. Occam's razor says ... .
BashiBazouk, dsws -
Yeah, it was fun while it lasted, you're right. In the video (the later parts of it), it seems obvious that whatever's making that trail isn't moving all that fast. Also, the one point where "flames" seem to be visible also looks a lot like the setting sun reflecting off a shiny metal fuselage on a banking plane.
The contrail's tragectory seems weird, still, but that could be some species of optical illusion. Bashi, got a link to that photo?
I'm still not convinced it wasn't super-dolphins, firing a warning shot, though. SQUEEEE!
Heh.
-CW
Here is the link but the images probably won't load until tomorrow or so as the site has been slashdotted.
Of course, if we want to put on our tinfoil hats, the fun doesn't have to end. If it really was No Such Agency, they would already have had a bogus flight number in the system to blame the contrail on. Does anyone here actually know anyone who was on US Airways flight 808? And if you do, we can always denounce you as a bot being run by the minions of No Such Agency. In league with the super-dolphins.