Obama Hits A Milestone
For those of you who still feel it is "too soon" after the Tucson tragedy to discuss such a crass subject as politics, I would strongly advise just skipping the rest of this column, because it's only going to annoy you. I have not yet discussed any of the political ramifications from last Saturday's shooting rampage, which (as it turned out) was probably a wise choice, because we've all had a bit too much of that sort of thing already by this point. Giant logical leaps to the Land of Conclusion have been happening pretty steadily since the news first broke, and many of these did not have soft landings (to put it mildly). It's always risky to attempt to draw any conclusions by extrapolating from a very tiny set of data (or a single data point, at times), because predicting trends is an almost impossible task from such shaky ground. And when there simply is no data available, pontificating about "what it all means" becomes downright dangerous, since it is no more than wild speculation (which usually leads to what the psychiatrists call "projection" -- ascribing your own thoughts and views upon the subject at hand). Which, as we've seen all week, can lead to some spectacular backfires. But having said all of that, I am about to engage in exactly what I've just warned everyone else not to do -- identify a trend from mere shreds of data. So, up front (and with apologies to Emile Zola, of course), I'd just like to pre-emptively say: "Je m'accuse!"
With the obligatory self-accusation out of the way, I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that President Barack Obama is having a pretty good month. Now, that can be read two ways -- that Obama has had a good 30-day period, and that Obama is having a good January. Both may prove to be true in the end. Reaching back to mid-December, Obama has enjoyed rising job approval levels due mostly to the fact that the tax deal he cut with Senate Republicans was seen by most Americans as a positive thing (much to the Left's consternation), and the rest of the lame duck Congress did nothing but put icing on this cake for Obama. Currently, Obama is enjoying the traditional "rally 'round the president" effect which shows up after any national tragedy. His speech last night is going to propel him to an even higher spike, because it was exactly the speech America needed to hear right now, delivered masterfully by our Orator-in-Chief. And, in less than two weeks, Obama is going to close the month out with his State of the Union speech to Congress.
Obama's mojo has apparently returned, to some extent or another.
Now, some may scoff at a rise in approval ratings after such a tragedy as not being authentic. This may be true to some extent, but the reality is Obama's approval ratings had shown a definite "bump" before the tragedy even happened. Last week, both Gallup and Rasmussen had Obama consistently higher (in the 48-50 percent approval range) than in the past few months. The bump, in other words, pre-dated the tragedy.
Since then, of course, Obama's approval has gone even higher. It seemed to be building on Friday, likely because of the unexpectedly large drop in the unemployment rate which was announced. Saturday's news overshadowed all of this, and Obama's numbers continued to climb. This is to be expected immediately following a national tragedy, though. Sometimes the "rally 'round the president" bump lasts for years (as usually happens when war begins), and sometimes it is fleeting and falls back after the tragedy fades into memory. But, again, Obama is a week-and-a-half away from giving his biggest speech of the year -- which could send his numbers even higher (even if only temporarily).
But before we get to the milestone Obama hit today, though, a few caveats are necessary. Since mid-December, there hasn't been a whole lot of polling done (due to the holiday season). Mostly, the field has been left open to the two organizations who do "daily" polling -- Rasmussen and Gallup. Meaning we don't have a whole lot of data to examine. Complicating the numbers even more is the fact that right before this bump started to appear, an outlier poll was posted which had Obama lower than just about every other poll at the time (with only a 40 percent approval rating) -- which skewed the data quite a bit. As new polls appear this month, the averages should settle down closer to actual reality.
Having said all of that, though, today was truly a red-letter day for Obama poll-watching fans. Because I write about Obama's poll numbers every month, I always keep an eye on these things, and have been watching the slow and steady climb Obama's approval has been experiencing since mid-December -- but even I was impressed, today.
Because today Obama decisively hit a milestone he has not managed since last July -- his daily approval rating (as averaged by the site RealClearPolitics.com) is now above his daily disapproval rating. Decisively so. For the past six months, Obama has been anywhere from just slightly down in the polls to a low point of 6.7 percent "underwater" (the negative gap between his approval and disapproval ratings). Two days ago, he was 1.3 percent underwater. Yesterday, he was 0.6 percent below the waves. Today, he is three full percentage points up. His approval today is charted at 49.0 percent, and his disapproval at 46.0 percent -- an enormous spike as these daily ratings go.
Which could, admittedly, reverse as quickly as it appeared. And which also could be an aberration in the way the RealClearPolitics site figures their rolling daily averages (they normally only average roughly the last two weeks, but due to the dearth of data, I think until today they were still figuring early-December polling into the mix).
But for now, Obama is officially above water once again -- for the first time since July 20, 2010. He's hit a daily high he hasn't hit since mid-May, as well. His January numbers are looking decidedly up, and he's still got a nationwide speech scheduled before the end of the month. Last night's speech is one big factor in all of this -- but by no means the only factor. His rise in poll numbers started almost four weeks ago, and while it'll be impossible to separate out exactly what caused it all in this trifecta of: a productive lame duck session, a beautifully-delivered speech after tragedy, and his annual address to the Congress and the country; it seems to be a developing trend for the better for Obama. Even if it proves to be illusory in the end (even if this entire article is wildly, optimistically wrong, in other words), Obama hit a milestone today in polling that is worth pointing out on its own. Ask any politician, they'll tell you -- being above water in the polling is a lot better than the alternative.
-- Chris Weigant
Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant
Chris,
Given the trifecta you point out, it’s not all that surprising that Obama has reached a milestone in the polling data. Specifically, his Tucson speech hit all the right notes and was apparently well-received by everyone who counts.
But, if I may veer off on a bit of a tangent, it appears that most of what I’ve heard in the aftermath of the tragedy - from the media types and politicos, alike - with respect to the sharply partisan and vitriolic political discourse in the country misses the point, entirely and not surprisingly.
Everyone seems to be focused on the impact of inflammatory political rhetoric while they ignore its critically more important predecessor - namely, nonsense political rhetoric that has no basis in reality or reliance on the facts of any given issue. And, those responsible for contaminating the debate with misinformation and lies are not limited to any one position along the ideological political spectrum. In other words, the toxic and dysfunctional media and political culture in which we live may be less a function of vitriolic partisan rhetoric than it is a product of political rhetoric based on ignorance, at best, and on an intentional effort to mislead and debase the truth, at worst, and which goes largely unacknowledged and unchallenged in this post-press era.
Perhaps it’s not too much to hope for that more responsible members of the media/blogosphere/punditocracy - of all political persuasions - will make a concerted effort now to expose nonsense political rhetoric and shut it down purely on the basis of its complete lack of veracity before it can degenerate into the inflammatory political discourse we are so inundated with today. I can only happily imagine what effect that kind of widespread responsible behavior might have on this president’s poll numbers - or any president’s poll numbers, for that matter.
One thing I know for certain and that is that if more members of the media/blogosphere/punditocracy took their cues from the excellence in journalism on display here, everyday, on how to behave responsibly and provide informative and reality-based political commentary, then we wouldn’t have to deal with such a toxic and dysfunctional media and political culture that literally prevents us from solving the already difficult and critical challenges of our time.
"the tax deal he cut with Senate Republicans was seen by most Americans as a positive thing (much to the Left's consternation)"
In a few years they won't see it as a good thing.
But why is it "Left" to dislike the idea of our government having to go hat-in-hand to foreigners for a bailout in a few years? Rich people will lose money too, when the market for US bonds finally panics. Is that ok with Right and Center, just because most of the world's poor will suffer worse?
liz,
perhaps we should apply a "value-added" formula to reporters and pundits, so we can pay them based on a mandatory standardized test of content knowledge taken by their readers/viewers.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/sabrina-stevens-shupe/how-about-a-measures-of-e_b_807918.html
Two things, Chris:
(1) David Neiwart has the count at nineteen incidents of right-wing violence since June of 2008, 17 since the election of Obama. That's real, actual, not-imaginary violence. Now, I don't know of any blogger who says Palin or Beck or Limbaugh should be arrested, as they didn't pull the trigger; but the tide of tea is just one part of a reactionary wave that's been going on since 2007, and the severe rhetoric of the echo chamber is a BIG part of that. A CBS poll earlier this week found that Republicans are as likely to approve of anti-government violence as Pakistanis are to approve of al-Qaeda. What I find hilarious is in the history of the conservative movement, comic books caused crime, Dungeons and Dragons and backwards lyrics caused suicide, rap caused rape, and video games cause murder -- but Sarah Palin's crosshairs have no relationship whatsoever to these "isolated" incidents of right-wing violence. Please, someone explain to me how that works.
(2) The White House had the foresight to pick its battles and prepare the terrain for dealing with the new Congress. There won't be a debt limit battle with the Senate, for instance, but there may be one with the GOP-controlled House. It's possible for Obama's numbers to keep improving each and every time they pick a fight he knows he can win. You mentioned the tax deal, which punted the issue to 2012 -- when he'll be happy to have that winner to run on. I expect his polls to keep improving, and I'm betting long on this presidency.
CW,
While it is undeniable that Obama's numbers have been inching up, I believe the big bump you witnessed was due to the impressive leadership Obama showed in the aftermath of the Tucson attack.. You will recall how Bush's numbers soared in the aftermath of 9/11..
So, while I don't mean to take anything away from Obama, as I was one of the ones who was impressed, I would be hesitant to call this a trend. As you so eloquently pointed out. In other words, I completely agree with you. :D
How Obama responds to the repeal of his vaunted CrapCare will be a true test of whether or not he has learned anything from the "shellacking" of the mid-terms..
Liz,
Specifically, his Tucson speech hit all the right notes and was apparently well-received by everyone who counts.
Awwww p'shaw... :D
And, those responsible for contaminating the debate with misinformation and lies are not limited to any one position along the ideological political spectrum.
Truer words were never spoken..
OInk,
David Neiwart has the count at nineteen incidents of right-wing violence since June of 2008, 17 since the election of Obama.
Nineteen WHOLE acts??? In 3 years??? WOW.. As a police officer and former intelligence analyst, I can assure you that such few acts spread out over such a long period of time would be classified as isolated incidents..
Especially if the connections to any ideological groups are as tenuous as I suspect these connections are..
To that end, what standards does Mr Neiwart use to quantify an act of "right wing violence"?? How are his connections made?? What is his methodology?
Further, I 'spose Mr Neiwart didn't chronicle the acts of LEFT WING violence, did he??
Gee, how come??
Given the history of the Left, do you REALLY want to compare acts of violence??
Seriously???
but Sarah Palin's crosshairs have no relationship whatsoever to these "isolated" incidents of right-wing violence. Please, someone explain to me how that works.
I would be happy do so..
However, you must clear something up for me first..
How is it that "Palin's crosshairs" on Congressional Districts cause or incite violence, but the Left's gun target bulls eyes "targeting" Republicans BY NAME and the Left's archery bulls eyes are perfectly acceptable??
Give it up..
Trying to blame the Right for Tucson is like trying to blame the moon for the Nazis...
There is absolutely ZERO evidence to support your claim.
ZERO... ZILCH... NADA... NONE...
I expect his polls to keep improving, and I'm betting long on this presidency.
Well, yer track record ain't too keen in this area, but time will tell.. :D
Michale.....
nypoet,
perhaps we should apply a "value-added" formula to reporters and pundits, so we can pay them based on a mandatory standardized test of content knowledge taken by their readers/viewers.
I'm sure I wouldn't know anything about that.
liz,
i'm referring to the "value added" formula for teachers, the latest insane imposition of silliness in education. see wednesday's article.
~joshua
joshua,
Yes, I know.
However, I try not to comment on things I know nothing about. Keeps me out of trouble. :)
liz,
well i know you're pretty well-versed in economic issues, so think of education that way. one criticism of our writing that i've heard a couple times is that the 26 billion to save public service jobs actually was an important stimulus (the implication being that i shouldn't criticize it for propping up the status quo of administrative waste). do you think that might be a valid criticism?
~joshua
joshua,
I am only somewhat versed in economic issues and then only insofar as they relate to the financial crisis of 2007-2009 and what Obama/Biden/GEITHNER have done to mitigate its impact on the lives of Americans and on the rest of us out in the world.
On the face of it, eliminating administrative waste and implementing an important stimulus program do not strike me as necessarily being at odds.
But, as far as what might be a valid criticism of this admnistration's education policies or of your analyses of education policy, I really do have to beg to defer to you and the other experts. This is not a field that I bring any knowledge to, whatsoever. And, it is not really one of my top area's of interest, to be brutally honest.