Gas prices up, Obama polls down

This is going to be the shortest one of these columns I've ever done.

Every so often, I write a column and it is out of date very soon after it is published. On occasion, my columns are out of date as they are published, because I cannot read the news and write at the same time. But I don't think I've ever written a column before which was provably out of date before I even wrote it. That describes this month's Obama Poll Watch column, however, because the news of Obama's polling numbers in April is already secondhand news. So I wouldn't blame you a bit if you just skipped the whole column entirely, this month.

The death of Osama Bin Laden on the second day of this month has overshadowed Obama's poll numbers from last month already. Obama's poll numbers in May are going to be a lot more interesting (to put it mildly) than his poll numbers from April are going to be. I realize all of this, but I still (for completeness' sake) feel obligated to put out this monthly report of where Obama stood last month with the public.

As I said, this is going to be a very short column, far shorter than our usual in-depth look at what is going on in the polling world. Let's just start with our monthly chart:

[Click on graph to see larger-scale version.]

April, 2011

April was a pretty miserable month for Barack Obama, poll-wise. It cannot be denied -- Obama slid heavily in the polls last month, mostly due to the high price of gasoline at the pump. Continued good news at the beginning of the month on the unemployment front barely registered, as American drivers saw gas prices jump steeply to over four bucks a gallon.

Obama's poll numbers continued the same trend set last month, and the average of his job approval ratings fell 1.7 percent, after falling 1.3 percent the month before, a total slip of 3.0 percent in two months' time. Obama ended the month at 46.4 percent approval. His disapproval numbers suffered an even steeper change. After climbing 1.9 points in March, Obama's disapproval average rose 1.8 percent last month, to end at 48.2 percent. This puts Obama only slightly better than he was last December, erasing almost all gains since then.

Overall Trends

For the second time in his presidency, Obama's approval numbers crossed over his disapproval numbers. But this period of being "underwater" will be a lot shorter than the last one, because May is already shaping up to be one of Obama's best months ever, for one very obvious reason.

The two questions right now among those who pay attention to polling are how big a bump Obama will get from the successful killing of Osama Bin Laden, and how long it will last. But whatever the answers to those two turn out to be, May is going to be a very good month for President Obama in the polls. By June, his numbers may settle back down, but May looks like a victory lap for Obama in the polls, at this point.

[Obama Poll Watch Data:]

Sources And Methodology

ObamaPollWatch.com is an admittedly amateur effort, but we do try to stay professional when it comes to revealing our sources and methodology. All our source data comes from RealClearPolitics.com; specifically from their daily presidential approval ratings "poll of polls" graphic page. We take their daily numbers, log them, and then average each month's data into a single number -- which is then shown on our monthly charts here (a "poll of polls of polls," if you will...). You can read a much more detailed explanation of our source data and methodology on our "About Obama Poll Watch" page, if you're interested.

Questions or comments? Use the Email Chris page to drop me a private note.

Column Archives

[Mar 11], [Feb 11], [Jan 11], [Dec 10], [Nov 10], [Oct 10], [Sep 10], [Aug 10], [Jul 10], [Jun 10], [May 10], [Apr 10], [Mar 10], [Feb 10], [Jan 10], [Dec 09], [Nov 09], [Oct 09], [Sep 09], [Aug 09], [Jul 09], [Jun 09], [May 09], [Apr 09], [Mar 09]

Obama's All-Time Statistics

Monthly
Highest Monthly Approval -- 2/09 -- 63.4%
Lowest Monthly Approval -- 8/10 -- 45.3%

Highest Monthly Disapproval -- 9/10 -- 49.7%
Lowest Monthly Disapproval -- 1/09 -- 19.6%

Daily
Highest Daily Approval -- 2/15/09 -- 65.5%
Lowest Daily Approval -- 10/17/10 -- 44.2%

Highest Daily Disapproval -- 9/26/10 -- 51.2%
Lowest Daily Disapproval -- 1/29/09 -- 19.3%

Obama's Raw Monthly Data

[All-time high in bold, all-time low underlined.]

Month -- (Approval / Disapproval / Undecided)
04/11 -- 46.4 / 48.2 / 5.4
03/11 -- 48.1 / 46.4 / 5.5
02/11 -- 49.4 / 44.5 / 6.1
01/11 -- 48.5 / 45.7 / 5.8
12/10 -- 45.5 / 48.1 / 6.4
11/10 -- 45.5 / 49.0 / 5.5
10/10 -- 45.5 / 49.1 / 5.4
09/10 -- 45.7 / 49.7 / 4.6
08/10 -- 45.3 / 49.5 / 5.2
07/10 -- 46.6 / 47.4 / 6.0
06/10 -- 47.6 / 46.7 / 5.7
05/10 -- 48.1 / 45.5 / 6.4
04/10 -- 47.8 / 46.5 / 5.7
03/10 -- 48.1 / 46.4 / 5.5
02/10 -- 47.9 / 46.1 / 6.0
01/10 -- 49.2 / 45.3 / 5.5
12/09 -- 49.4 / 44.9 / 5.7
11/09 -- 51.1 / 43.5 / 5.4
10/09 -- 52.2 / 41.9 / 5.9
09/09 -- 52.7 / 42.0 / 5.3
08/09 -- 52.8 / 40.8 / 6.4
07/09 -- 56.4 / 38.1 / 5.5
06/09 -- 59.8 / 33.6 / 6.6
05/09 -- 61.4 / 31.6 / 7.0
04/09 -- 61.0 / 30.8 / 8.2
03/09 -- 60.9 / 29.9 / 9.2
02/09 -- 63.4 / 24.4 / 12.2
01/09 -- 63.1 / 19.6 / 17.3

-- Chris Weigant

Cross-posted at The Huffington Post

Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant