The Rise And Fall Of Rick Perry
A recent CBS News-New York Times poll on the Republican nomination race has some stunningly bad news for Rick Perry. The poll, taken in the past few days, has Perry in fifth place, with only six percent support. Here are the percentage numbers for the whole field:
25 -- Herman Cain
21 -- Mitt Romney
10 -- Newt Gingrich
8 -- Ron Paul
6 -- Rick Perry
2 -- Michele Bachmann
1 -- Rick Santorum
1 -- Jon Huntsman
14 -- undecided
Two months ago, Perry led the field with 23 percent (to Romney's 16 percent second-place). Two months ago, Herman Cain was at five percent. Cain is now, to be blunt, eating Perry's lunch (insert your own pizza joke here). Even the Tea Party has all but abandoned Perry in favor of Cain, at this point.
That's a pretty monumental turnaround, especially considering the amount of money Perry has raised. This money flow could soon slow to a trickle -- even from wealthy Texans -- if Perry's numbers in this poll prove real.
That's a big caveat, for now -- this is but one poll, and two other recent polls had Perry at 13 percent and firmly in third place. So perhaps the CBS poll is nothing more than a statistical anomaly.
Perry had better hope so. He certainly doesn't seem aware of how fast and far he's fallen with the Republican voting public. If he were, he wouldn't be toying around with the thoroughly-discredited birtherism, because this just makes him look like a fringe, or crank candidate. Again, not something to breed confidence in his big-money backers, one would think.
Perry has, to his credit, announced two economic plans of late. He led with an energy plan, which can be summed up as "Drill, baby, drill!" -- which surprised precisely no one, seeing as how Perry comes from oil-rich Texas. To counter Cain's snappy 9-9-9 plan, Perry has now just announced his own version of a flat tax, one that seems (at first glance) to be much better thought-out than Cain's (Perry has exemptions in his plan so that the burden on the poor would be a lot less than Cain's, or at least that's what is being reported so far).
Although Perry's plans lend seriousness and heft to his campaign, it remains to be seen whether this will do him any good with the voting public or not. A lot of Republican voters have tuned in to one or more of Perry's disastrous debate performances, and they may have already made up their minds about Perry's viability as a candidate. And not in a good way, either.
Perry's rise in the polls was meteoric. He skyrocketed to first place, and held it for a while. But his fall may be just as notable. Right now, even with all Perry's built-in advantages, he is polling behind Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul. That's not a good place to be in, with less than 70 days until the voting starts.
Of course, there's a war which hasn't even been fought yet -- the battle of the airwaves. One thing Perry has going for him is a crack video production team. People from Texas know that Perry can be an excellent campaigner when it comes to the 30-second air war. And Perry still does have a hefty amount of money in the bank. So he certainly could stage a comeback, especially in the first-in-line group of voting states.
Still... six percent. Fifth place. Perry could just as easily be toast at this point. The next few months are going to get interesting, that's for sure.
-- Chris Weigant
Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant
Why else go birther, if not in desperation?
And please: bring on Alan Keyes, I mean Herman Cain. Please, I haven't been this happy about a matchup since Tim James threw his pandering hat in the ring and stepped into the lens in what seemed to be an "awkward pauses" routine. Cain will flame out, too. He can't help himself.
But I have to say I'm also excited by Newt. He's still at one in ten -- not bad, having lost as many staffers as Bachmann and still going on credit. Can he take Romney?
Here's a possibility, Chris. Suppose the process starts to play out next Summer, and Obama leads the winner by a mile. Is it fair to say the GOP will throw its attention and money on taking the Senate? Because that worries me.
And please: bring on Alan Keyes, I mean Herman Cain. Please, I haven't been this happy about a matchup since Tim James threw his pandering hat in the ring and stepped into the lens in what seemed to be an "awkward pauses" routine. Cain will flame out, too. He can't help himself.
Lemme ask ya something, Matt...
How would you feel if a large group of Americans pointed to your statements against Cain and accused you of being racist. Especially with your "bring on Alan Keyes, I mean Herman Cain." statement. This group could throw the accusation at you, that you think all black people look alike..
Think about it, Matt.. In your mind, you have perfectly legitimate and reasonable issues with Cain and what he stands for.
How would it make you feel if a large group of your fellow Americans reduced all your reason and logic down to one blatantly false accusation.
You don't like Cain because you are a racist..
Hope this makes you think for a moment...
Here's a possibility, Chris. Suppose the process starts to play out next Summer, and Obama leads the winner by a mile. Is it fair to say the GOP will throw its attention and money on taking the Senate? Because that worries me.
You have nothing to worry about, Matt.
Barring some cataclysmic catastrophe that gives Democrats the opportunity to be the saviors of the known universe, the GOP will gain the White House and the Senate with ease..
2012 will make 2010 look positively like a Left Love fest by comparison..
Remember, you heard it here first... :D
Michale....
Lemme ask ya'all something...
What do ya'all think the dynamics of a Cain v Obama would be like..
On the surface, it would seem to eliminate "the race card" completely. No one could make race an issue because both candidates are black.
However, I think the reality though would be just the opposite..
Given the acrimony and the US vs THEM mentality that has been growing exponentially in political circles.....
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/ed4439d4-fbeb-11e0-9283-00144feab49a.html
..... I think that race would become MORE of an issue.
A prelude to what an Obama v Cain contest could look like came with Cain's statement that Obama never really had "the black experience".. Whatever that is...
A Cain v Obama contest would be a really interesting event to witness, to be sure...
Michale.....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qhm-22Q0PuM&feature=player_embedded
1) Is that Herman Cain's campaign manager endorsing Herman Cain? He couldn't find anyone else?
2) Why is he smoking?
3) Herman is going to put the "United" back in United States? Did he just really say that?
-David
2) Why is he smoking?
Hay, I thought I was the smoking nazi around here... :D
3) Herman is going to put the "United" back in United States? Did he just really say that?
Why not??
It worked for Barack There-Are-No-Red-States-Are-No-Blue-States-Only-United-States Obama..
The difference is, we NOW know that Obama was full of bovine feces....
Time will tell if Cain is as well...
"That rhymes Marge, and you know it!!"
-Homer Simpson
:D
Michale....
Hay, I thought I was the smoking nazi around here... :D
Heheheh. I just don't understand what the smoking shot has to do w/ anything else. It's just bizarre.
Heheheh. I just don't understand what the smoking shot has to do w/ anything else. It's just bizarre.
I have to agree... It's weird..
And a total turn-off to me...
It's why I could never get into MadMen... :D
Michale.....
What do ya'all think the dynamics of a Cain v Obama would be like
A lot like the dynamics of the 2004 election for US Senator from Illinois after Jack Ryan was out of the running. With race not a factor, and establishment Republicans not taking their candidate seriously, Obama would win in a walk.
The poll, taken in the past few days, has Perry in fifth place
There can be only one anybody-but-Romney pick-of-the-week. Well, one at a time, anyway.
dsws,
With race not a factor,
I wish I had your faith in humanity..
As much as I would love to see that, I just can't see race NOT being a factor..
and establishment Republicans not taking their candidate seriously,
You are, of course, assuming Cain would not be taken seriously... :D
Obama would win in a walk.
I doubt that the economy wasn't a big factor in the 2004 Illinois Senate race....
Michale.....
I doubt that the economy wasn't a big factor in the 2004 Illinois Senate race....
Woops Double negative there...
Strike that to read...
"I doubt that the economy was a big factor in the 2004 Illinois Senate race...."
To expand on that (perhaps needlessly) barring a major terrorist attack in the next 12 months, the economy will the be numero uno issue of the 2012 election..
It's actually ironic. Given Obama's foreign policy and CT successes of the last couple years, a major terrorist attack on US proper might be a big boon to his re-election campaign.
Who would have thunked that a Carter-esque Democrat President could actually be saved by a terrorist attack on US soil...
"Strange times..."
-Dean Winchester, SUPERNATURAL
Michale.....
Michale [3] -
I think it'd be interesting to see a Cain-Obama match, for obvious reasons. I thought the Fiorina-Boxer race for Senate out here was interesting too, because both being women was barely even mentioned as an issue. This fulfilled a feminist quote (which I am too lazy to look up) from years earlier about a woman running for office: "It won't be a big day when a woman runs for high office, it will be a big day when TWO women run for that office, and nobody even notices."
Same sort of dynamic with Cain-Obama, although you can bet that it WILL be noticed, big time. Maybe the next time it happens, it'll be no big deal, though. Progress is slow....
dsws [8] -
I (and Michale with me) will never forget that Seven Of Nine created Barack Obama The Politician. [Hint: Look up Jeri Ryan, and why her husband dropped out of the race.]
:-)
dsws [9] -
Romney might do better if there were two strong anti-Romneys at the same time... I'm just sayin'...
-CW
I (and Michale with me) will never forget that Seven Of Nine created Barack Obama The Politician. [Hint: Look up Jeri Ryan, and why her husband dropped out of the race.]
A world w/o 7 of 9 would be a dreary place indeed... :D
Wish I had one of those "What If" machines to see what this country would be like if Jack & Jeri Ryan were still happily married.... :D
Michale.....