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All in all, it's looking like whether Newt Gingrich wants to admit it yet or not, by Super Tuesday this race will likely be pretty much over. Of course, this year, predictions of such a nature have certainly had a way of turning out wrong, but it's safe to say that Mitt Romney is feeling pretty good about things right about now.
As we wend our way through the Republican primary season, at times predicting the outcome of a single state's race is very hard to do. At other times, it is actually pretty easy. Florida looks to be one of the latter.
Well, that was an eventful week in politics, wasn't it?
Newt Gingrich may win the Florida Republican primary.
President Obama last night unveiled a new twist on an old idea in his State Of The Union address to Congress -- limit the loopholes and tax giveaways that very wealthy people use to reduce their taxes far below the rate honest workers pay. Obama called for a minimum tax rate of 30 percent on income over one million dollars. To some, this sounds like a radical idea, but it really isn't. It is merely a refinement of a part of the tax code that has been with us for decades: the Alternative Minimum Tax.
I haven't written one of these snap-judgment reactions to a speech in a while, so forgive me if this is a bit choppy and disorganized. As always, I am writing this before looking at other opinions of President Obama's just-completed State Of The Union speech. I feel this keeps my opinion unsullied by any sort of "groupthink" effect. Sometimes I read other speech reviews the next day and find I agree with them, sometimes not, but this way at least you know I'm not just regurgitating others' thoughts.
What a difference a week makes, at least in the Republican primary contest.
OK, to be completely honest, we just felt like beating up on some Republicans today.
It's still early days to even know if the economy is truly about to enter a strong recovery or not. A few data points on a graph do not always a trend line make, to put it another way. But from what I have personally seen in previous recessions, there always seems to be a real "tipping point" where American businesses collectively decide that things are going to be better soon -- and then they start hiring people and fulfilling their own prophecy. This could indeed be such a turning point.
If either Gingrich or Santorum (or even Perry) had managed to cement their status as the alpha "not-Romney" in the race at this point, they might have had a chance in that fabled "two-man race" (or, more properly, "two-man-plus-Ron-Paul race"). Adding Gingrich and Santorum's support in South Carolina easily shows that Romney could have been defeated here, if the field had narrowed. Florida would even be in play, likely.