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Romney Inevitable?

[ Posted Tuesday, January 3rd, 2012 – 21:48 UTC ]

I thought I'd wait to write today until the Iowa results were in, because I haven't done one of these "snap judgment" sorts of things for a while. As I begin, roughly 85 percent of the votes have been reported.

Mitt Romney seems to have squeaked out a victory over Rick Santorum, at least if the numbers hold (the two are separated by less than 1,000 votes). Ron Paul has posted a strong third place, with the rest of the pack clocking in at under 15 percent.

What it all means is tough to say at this point. New Hampshire is only a week away, and there will be yet another debate held over the weekend before that happens. Towards the end of the month, South Carolina and then Florida will vote.

The likely storyline to emerge in tomorrow's newspapers may well be the "inevitability" of Mitt Romney. These stories may wind up being correct. Romney seems poised to win a decisive victory in New Hampshire, but that has been expected all along, so it will not shake much of anything up. Winning Iowa, however, could be a much bigger deal for Mitt, because even Romney himself didn't believe he could win here until a few weeks ago. Iowa is a heavily conservative and evangelical state, when it comes to the Republican electorate. Rick Santorum's strong showing certainly proves that. But Mitt's victory shows he can win in such a state, which goes a long way in the "electability" category.

South Carolina will be interesting, because it too is seen as a very tough race for Romney. After South Carolina, the field may be narrowed to only one other viable contender for the social conservative "not-Romney" vote. Because of this, it's going to be an absolute cage match for Santorum, Gingrich, Perry, and Bachmann. Only one may make it out alive, to be metaphorically blunt.

Of course, not all four may even make it that far. The pressure is going to become intense for Bachmann and Gingrich to drop out. Perry's got enough money to make it at least as far as Florida, but few other not-Romney candidates can make this claim. Bachmann, especially, may run out of money before she even gets to South Carolina. Florida is a very expensive state to run ads in, which means by the time they vote there will likely be only three or four candidates realistically left in the race.

Jon Huntsman has pinned all his hopes on New Hampshire, but it likely won't be enough. He seems like an intelligent enough guy to realize this, and will likely drop out before South Carolina. Rick Santorum will be the beneficiary of a large wave of money after his strong Iowa showing, and will likely be in the race at least through Florida. Ron Paul seems to be in the race for the long haul, no matter what, so it's unlikely we'll see him drop out at any point -- in fact, he may even decide later to take the third-party route (he's done it before).

Mitt Romney is unquestionably tonight's big winner, though. With the rest of the pack fighting for the one Republican slot to take him on, they have trained all of their attacks on each other. Mitt has been able to stand clear of this fray, for the most part, with virtually no attack ads run against him. This will undoubtedly change now, but with so many still left in the race they're still going to have the same problem of splitting the not-Romney vote. Santorum now seems to have the best chance of sewing this bloc up, and being the second man in a two-man race, but it remains to be seen how well he'll do in South Carolina. Santorum was incredibly lucky with the timing of his bounce in the polling, because it simply happened too late for any of the other candidates to train their fire on him. Like Romney, Santorum was able to stay clear of the fray. Also like Romney, this is about to change for Santorum.

While the news tomorrow will likely be of Romney's inevitability, I wouldn't go quite that far. The real test is going to happen in Florida, I believe. Unlike the other three early states, Florida is much more representative of America at large, and is much less of a one-issue type of state. It has a much larger population, and it's going to be expensive to reach all those people. If Romney wins Florida, then I will entertain thoughts of the inevitability of his nomination, but not before.

-- Chris Weigant

 

Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant

 

18 Comments on “Romney Inevitable?”

  1. [1] 
    jbl_inAZ wrote:

    I feel you're quite right, though I'll bet you wish you'd waited a couple more hours. A difference of 8 votes means talk of a victory will now be talk of a tie and will emphasize Santorum's equal showing. Your bottom line is probably not affected -- and waiting till after Florida is smart -- but still.

    Just saying.

  2. [2] 
    dsws wrote:

    He may be inevitable, but the Republican primary electorate will dredge the also-rans a bit longer, at least: Romney stayed at his ceiling, Ron Paul is Ron Paul, and Santorum has a problem with name recognition.

  3. [3] 
    Michale wrote:

    While I have nothing to doubt the Romney Inevitable claim, I am constrained to point out that everyone thought Hillary was inevitable too...

    I'm just sayin'... :D

    Michale

  4. [4] 
    akadjian wrote:

    Bring on Romney and his health care plan!

    Kidding. I don't know as he's inevitable or not yet. The interesting thing is, if you add up all of the "not Romney"s you get 75% of the vote.

    That means Romney needs the others in the race to split the remaining electorate along several lines so he can win. This has to be a huge concern for Romney which no one is talking about. Mike Huckabee when he won 4 years ago won with 34% of the vote.

    What happens if other candidates drop out? Who will their votes go to?

    This is what could decide the election. But the story we're likely to hear in the media is the inevitability of Romney because this is how he hopes to win. And he's got the most money by far of any of the candidates.

    -David

  5. [5] 
    nypoet22 wrote:

    the CNN horse-race coverage was exciting to watch, as the vote margin was under ten for the last hour or so and the lead kept changing. unfortunately it led to me not getting much sleep. romney, much like john kerry who he most reminds me of, suffers from the same "tin-man" issue. no matter how smart or disciplined a candidate he may be, he seems not to have any heart to speak of. santorum's speech last night really highlighted that by contrast.

  6. [6] 
    akadjian wrote:

    BTW- Happy New Year to everyone! Here's to more great political conversations in 2012

  7. [7] 
    akadjian wrote:

    romney, much like john kerry who he most reminds me of, suffers from the same "tin-man" issue. no matter how smart or disciplined a candidate he may be, he seems not to have any heart to speak of.

    Agreed, nypoet. I miss Herman Cain. At least he had personality. I'll have to watch Santorum though as I haven't really heard him speak.

    It's also amazing to watch Romney dissemble when he talks about things like health care. I'd have more respect for him if he took credit for the health care plan in Massachusetts. In this respect, he is also like John McCain - he has to say things in which he doesn't really believe.

  8. [8] 
    Michale wrote:

    I think the comparison to John Kerry is dead on ballz accurate...

    Hopefully, history won't repeat itself...

    On the other hand, Mexico's Grand Warlock said that Obama is going to lose..

    Mexico's grand warlock predicts Obama will lose
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-16405116

    So, I think we're good.. :D

    Michale

  9. [9] 
    akadjian wrote:

    Mexico's Grand Warlock said that Obama is going to lose.

    God also told Pat Robertson that Obama is a radical who's going to bring on America's collapse.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PNhrNqS0lyE&feature=player_embedded

    It's hard to argue with God and warlocks ... :)

    -David

  10. [10] 
    Chris Weigant wrote:

    jbl_inAZ -

    Yeah, that's the problem with these snap judgment articles...

    After I posted it, I watched the race go back and forth between Romney and Santorum several times. It wasn't until right before I went to bed that the final # came through. 8 votes! Wow!

    Well, I'm just glad I got 1-for-3 in my guessing. If Santorum had won, I would have been 0-for-3.

    Just watched Bachmann's pullout speech. And then there were six... looks like Perry's ready to go, too.

    Huntsman will award himself some sort of consolation prize in NH, and then pull out. Looks like four candidates for SC and FL. The polls will be interesting to watch for the next week, that's for sure.

    Hey, forgot to mention, we MADE OUR GOAL! For the first time, CW.com will be a self-financing concern for the coming year. Woo hoo! And, after paying the monthly bills, looks like I'll even have about $50 or so as a "salary" -- that's impressive indeed, when you consider how few websites actually make it. Just so everyone won't think I'm rolling in the dough, I have contributed this $50 to Matt Osborne's site, to support our friends.

    THANKS to everyone who donated! When I started this site, I never dreamed people would actually send me hard cold cash for what I do, and I am truly overwhelmed at everyone's support. 2012 should be a banner year!

    -CW

  11. [11] 
    Michale wrote:

    David,

    It's hard to argue with God and warlocks ... :)

    Couldn't have said it better.. :D

    Michale

  12. [12] 
    Michale wrote:

    CW,

    Hey, forgot to mention, we MADE OUR GOAL!

    Woot!!!!!

    Michale

  13. [13] 
    Chris Weigant wrote:

    David -

    What's the saying?

    "Do not meddle in the affairs of wizards, for they are subtle and quick to anger."

    That's from memory, anyway...

    Heh.

    -CW

  14. [14] 
    DerFarm wrote:

    Well, I had Santorum tagged at 29%. I never thought that the Perry folks would hold to him. So far I'm batting 100%. Dead wrong all the time.

    I like the inevitable tag. Paul is not a national candidate. Too many people don't like him.

    We've seen what happened to Gingrich, no reason to think he'll be able to pull it out.

    I still think Santorum is a one-trick pony, and that trick has left the station. If he had any kind of national structure he could have a choice. Even tho he's Catholic, he'll run well in Baptist country. Bachmann and Perry leaving are going to help a lot, but even so, its late to be putting together a staff.

    Where is the non-Mitt $$$ going to go to? Better question: IS the non-Mitt $$$ going to come out? I guess with enough money you could create an organization overnight. Maybe even take over Perry's?

  15. [15] 
    DerFarm wrote:

    Well, it looks as tho the gods favor Mittens. Apparently, Perry is NOT leaving the race until at least after SC.

    The only person this could possibly hurt is Santorum. I wonder what Perry was promised, and who promised it?

  16. [16] 
    akadjian wrote:

    THANKS to everyone who donated! When I started this site, I never dreamed people would actually send me hard cold cash for what I do, and I am truly overwhelmed at everyone's support. 2012 should be a banner year!

    Well deserved, CW. 2011 was a splendid year of political writing.

    Now back to work! We expect a great 2012 for that $50 salary :)

    The only person this could possibly hurt is Santorum. I wonder what Perry was promised, and who promised it?

    Great question indeed. Mitt owes him big time. I hope he's at least getting something in return.

    -David

  17. [17] 
    jbl_inAZ wrote:

    For the first time, CW.com will be a self-financing concern for the coming year.

    Yippee-ki-yay! or, Congratulations.

    "Do not meddle in the affairs of wizards, for they are subtle and quick to anger."

    I prefer, "Do not meddle in the affairs of dragons, for you are crunch and good with ketchup."

    Of course, that's not so relevant; I just like it better.

  18. [18] 
    jbl_inAZ wrote:

    "crunchy"

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