Quick Pick For Illinois
Once again, it's primary day! Woo hoo!
Well, OK, that was kind of snarky. Just barely over the halfway point, it's to be expected that predicting the outcomes of the Republican nominating contests has gotten less fun and more of a chore than anything else, so we'll keep things mercifully short today.
First, a quick review of how things stand. Mitt Romney unsurprisingly swept Puerto Rico, after Rick Santorum visited the island and informed them -- incorrectly -- that there was a constitutional requirement that they adopt English as their official language before they could become a state. Statehood is an enormous issue in Puerto Rico, and Rick pretty much buried any hopes he held of picking up a few delegates by this one offhanded remark.
I called this correctly last Friday, which slightly improved my overall tally of making accurate predictions this year.
Total correct 2012 primary picks so far: 36 for 55 -- 65%.
Today's contest is a big one, with 69 delegates up for grabs. However, the state of Illinois is a pretty easy one to call, as Mitt Romney's been out in front in the polling in recent days, at times opening up a double-digit lead over Rick Santorum. Illinois has more urban and suburban voters than the past few states, which also plays to Romney's strengths. Santorum might have had a chance here, because Illinois is smack in the middle of the contiguous block of states he's so far picked up in the Plains and Midwest, but so far in the more urban of the Midwestern states (Ohio and Michigan) Romney has managed to eke out victories. Illinois is also a fairly expensive state to campaign in, giving Romney's far-better campaign organization and his far-deeper campaign chest a decided edge.
I'm betting that there won't be any surprises or upsets tonight, and that Mitt Romney will walk away with a clean win, and also pick up the lion's share of the delegates. Rick Santorum will place comfortably in second, with Newt Gingrich far behind him in third, edging out Ron Paul.
Those are my picks, what are yours?
[Previous states' picks:]
[IA] [NH] [SC] [FL] [NV] [CO, MN, and MO] [ME] [AZ and MI] [WA] [Super Tuesday: AK, GA, ID, MA, ND, OH, OK, TN, VT, and VA] [Guam, KS, Virgin Islands, Northern Marianas] [Puerto Rico]
-- Chris Weigant
Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant
Time for people to start admitting that Romney is the nominee. But the MSM loves a horse-race, and the Republicans will want to go with their original plan of getting media attention for their nominee by drawing out a made-for-tv primary process, so my guess is it's not going to happen quickly.
dsws -
It won't happen until Newt and Rick drop out. Newt, I think, will be gone after this weekend (Lousiana), but Rick will likely be in it to the end, as the later states in the primary schedule favor him, so he'll be holding out hope until the bitter end.
Of course, I could be wrong. I've already predicted Newt will be out of the race like three or four times now, I think...
-CW