Can Mitt Romney Lead His Own Party?
Mitt Romney is now embracing his inner Etch A Sketch, it seems. With the news that even Newt Gingrich has finally decided that the race is over, Mitt now has no real obstacle along his way to securing his party's nomination for president, or to cement his support among Republicans. No real obstacle except himself, of course.
Conventional political wisdom in America dictates that any candidate "tack" to the extreme wing of his party in order to win the primaries, and then "pivot" back to the center in an effort not to seem too extreme to the independent voters which will wind up deciding the race in November. So, Etch A Sketch jokes aside, this was entirely predictable.
But the first issue Romney chose to show a glimmer of independence from Republican orthodoxy is an interesting one, because the deadline for action is right around the corner. Which means it will serve as a very important test for Romney's candidacy as a whole: can Mitt lead his own party -- especially in a direction in which they are not that interested in going?
The issue at hand is student loans. President Barack Obama is pushing the issue hard, in an effort to enthuse the young voters who were so critical to his election victory in 2008. The interest rate on student loans is slated to double, starting this summer. If Congress doesn't act by the end of June, the rate will jump from 3.4 percent to 6.8 percent. This will be a burden on every college student who relies on such loans to pay the insanely-high price of a good college education in America.
Barack Obama is for keeping the rate where it is. Congressional Republicans (big surprise!) are against what Obama is for. This could be because they don't want to spend any money, or it could just be because they are against anything Obama suggests (on the general principle that if Obama wants it, it must be a bad thing).
Mitt Romney, this week, just came out in favor of Obama's plan to keep the rate low and more affordable to students. This is due to the fact that Obama has a whoppingly-large edge with younger voters, and Mitt is desperately seeking their support. Mitt, during the primaries, seemed to suggest he was against the concept of any non-wealthy students getting any sort of societal help in attending college. Now, Mitt has flip-flopped (or perhaps "Etch A Sketched"?), and supports this "socialist" concept. Which leads to the question: can Romney convince the Republicans in Congress to vote for the idea?
Mitt Romney is now the de facto leader of the Republican Party. He is running for the job of leader of the country (or, as the more jingoistic would put it: "leader of the free world"). He claims, as his campaign's core rationale, that Obama is a weak leader, and that he would be a strong leader.
Here is his chance to prove it. Before the end of June, Mitt needs to get enough Republicans in both the House and Senate on board the proposal to keep student loan rates low in order to pass the bill. Romney will have to overcome the resistance from his party in Congress to be seen as handing any sort of "legislative victory" to Barack Obama in an election year -- which is a high hurdle indeed.
To achieve this, Romney will have to sell his own spin on the issue. It wouldn't be that hard to do. Here's a quick suggestion: "President Obama talks about how he wants to bring the country together, but without my help this bill would never have passed -- it was only through my leadership that we were able to bring Republicans and Democrats to the table to agree on doing the right thing. If you want continued gridlock in Congress and nothing to get done, vote for Obama's weakness. If, on the other hand, you want to see real progress get made in Washington to improve people's lives, then you should vote for me. My leadership has made possible what Obama's weakness could not."
Spinning it thus, Romney might turn the tables and squash any attempt by Obama to proclaim a legislative victory. Then again, it might not -- college students are not stupid, and they know full well which party supports student loans and which party does not. But it might just resonate with independent voters, even if it falls short with the youth vote.
Because Romney is now on record as supporting this effort, it is going to become a test of how far his influence reaches within his own party. Barack Obama can likely get every single Democrat in the Senate (and almost all of them in the House) to vote for this proposal, even if the vote were held tomorrow. The real movement -- and the bill's chances for passage -- needs to happen on the Republican side.
Which means it is largely up to Romney to make happen. If Romney successfully shepherds the legislation through, he could make a claim for leadership on the issue. If he can't lead enough of his own party, however, he will have failed a true test of leadership in the early stages of the general election. Can Mitt lead? We're about to find out.
-- Chris Weigant
Cross-posted at Business Insider
Cross-posted at The Huffington Post
Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant
To achieve this, Romney will have to sell his own spin on the issue. It wouldn't be that hard to do. Here's a quick suggestion: "President Obama talks about how he wants to bring the country together, but without my help this bill would never have passed -- it was only through my leadership that we were able to bring Republicans and Democrats to the table to agree on doing the right thing. If you want continued gridlock in Congress and nothing to get done, vote for Obama's weakness. If, on the other hand, you want to see real progress get made in Washington to improve people's lives, then you should vote for me. My leadership has made possible what Obama's weakness could not."
In future, try to limit that sort of advice to yourself and the four surrounding walls.
:-)
Conventional political wisdom in America dictates that any candidate "tack" to the extreme wing of his party in order to win the primaries, and then "pivot" back to the center in an effort not to seem too extreme to the independent voters which will wind up deciding the race in November. So, Etch A Sketch jokes aside, this was entirely predictable.
It's also worth noting that, in the 2008 Elections, it was this sort of TACK TO THE CENTER that won Obama the presidency... :D
Barack Obama is for keeping the rate where it is. Congressional Republicans (big surprise!) are against what Obama is for. This could be because they don't want to spend any money, or it could just be because they are against anything Obama suggests (on the general principle that if Obama wants it, it must be a bad thing).
Let's be fair about this.
When Obama was Senator, he didn't think Student Loans were any big deal.. He didn't even bother showing up when they were voted upon..
TWICE....
Once again, Senator Obama is doing in President Obama...
This is due to the fact that Obama has a whoppingly-large edge with younger voters, and Mitt is desperately seeking their support.
Unless you have some new information, this isn't entirely accurate. It's the younger voters that are abandoning Obama in droves...
Michale.....
it will serve as a very important test for Romney's candidacy as a whole
No, it won't. It will be another forgotten campaign promise.
Your suggestion would be a bold move. If he could pull it off, it could change the whole campaign. But I don't think this is the right campaign promise to try it on.
Did you write this to soon Chris?
You wrote:
Barack Obama is for keeping the rate where it is. Congressional Republicans (big surprise!) are against
But just tonight I read:
the House Republicans have offered a solution to the student loan interest rate hike that loomed in July. The bill, which the House will vote on this Friday, will keep the rates from doubling 3.4% to 6.8%. Essentially, the biggest difference in the GOP proposal from the Democratic one stems from where the money comes from, with the GOP attempting to avert a tax increase.
So it is not about Student Loans but tax rate increases....
Cross posted from HP
Liz -
Yeah, it kind of made me shudder, how easy it was to write that. Spin's easy to come up with, no matter what side it comes from, I guess.
Michale -
Oh, I agree -- the "tack to the center" is expected, because it virtually always happens, no matter the candidate or the party. That's why it's "conventional wisdom" (although in this rare case, it is actually correct... heh).
As for students, the real question is how many young people turn out. I think Obama will win them by a margin of at least 25-30 points, personally. At LEAST. Whether they'll be a factor or not is the question: how many are disillusioned with the entire political system at this point, and simply won't turn out to vote? That's what could harm Obama, not them suddenly falling in love with Romney.
dsws and tinsldr2 -
Looks like the congressional Republicans have wised up. They're now all for the idea, but want to have a squabble about how to pay for it. Reminds me of the payroll tax holiday last December -- they realized how bad a political position they were in, and decided to support Obama's idea, but stage a fight over it to distract the media.
-CW
Whether they'll be a factor or not is the question: how many are disillusioned with the entire political system at this point, and simply won't turn out to vote?
Now, come on.. Let's be fair.. The question won't be how many are disillusioned with the entire political system, but rather how many are disillusioned with Obama...
That's what could harm Obama, not them suddenly falling in love with Romney.
Agreed. The chances of them falling in love with Romney are Slim and None and Slim just logged off.. :D
Michale.....
Ok a bit off topic Chris and I guess I dont really get a say in your Friday most Impressive Democrat of the week but can I recommend this Clip of Harry Reid saying:
"Seniors Love getting junk mail, sometimes it is their only way of communicating and feeling they are part of the real world"
You can see the video at:
http://townhall.com/tipsheet/erikajohnsen/2012/04/25/senate_democrat_we_can_save_the_post_office_with_wind_farms
But that is a right wing site and poorly moderated so read the comments there at your own risk
Oh and for tilting at windmills I vote Tom Carper and his "windmills will save the Postal service" as the honorable mention....
Just a thought...because Dems are so impressive :- )
tinsldr2 -
Everybody gets a say, as long as I get the veto!
Heh.
Interestingly enough, I got polled by Rasmussen last weekend. It was a robo-poll obviously paid for by the RNC leadership, because the questions they asked in-depth (they didn't even ask the standard stuff like Obama job approval) were all about two major issues: student loans and the postal service. The results must have been a shock to the GOP, because I see they've taken a stand on both counter to what their stand was last week: voting to keep post offices open, and now suddenly supporting keeping student loan rates low.
Maybe my answers to the poll swayed them, whaddya think?
Heh.
-CW
Michale -
I'll meet you halfway on this one. Yes, the young folk got disillusioned with Obama. But in my experience, the first major disappointment in a young person's political life (in this case, Obama) sours them not just on one man or even one party -- it usually disillusions them from the entire system, sometimes for over a decade. They become "why bother to vote" -ers. Um, maybe why-bother-to-vote-ers(?). Anyway, you see what I mean.
But I will meet you halfway and agree that disillusionment with Obama is the root cause in this particular case. I just think it may go deeper for some of them.
-CW
CW,
Complete and unequivocal agreement... :D
While I may be able to get a shot or two in on tonight's commentary, just let me say here that ya'all are getting another mini-vacation from "he who shall not be named".. :D
I am taking my lovely wife on a 4-Day Bahama/Caribbean cruise to celebrate our 30th wedding anniversary, starting tomorrow morning at 0800 sharp! No Internet access to be had... Well, it's probably available, but the wife has put her foot down. No Net for me... :D (Did ya'all put her up to that!??? :D)
So, I'll catch up with things on Tuesday.... :D
Hasta Lasagna, don't get any on ya... :D
Michale.....
Bermuda Triangle, here I come!!!!! :D
Michale.....