From The Archives -- The Bradley Effect v. The Obama Effect
[Program Note: As many of you are aware, I've been spending time this month finishing up a book proposal I've been writing (for quite some time now). Many have asked "How's it going?" so I'm happy to update everyone. I'm within days of the final review draft of the first three chapters being finished. This is a notable milestone, and after completing it I will be swept up in the preparations for the Democratic National Convention. Because I spent today working on it, I'm running the following column repeat, which first appeared in August of 2008, during the last presidential election cycle. It's a good reminder for everyone who gets too close to politics at times. Opus's advice still stands the test of time, I should point out.]
Originally published August 11, 2008.
If you're sick of politics, and don't want to read another single thing about it before Election Day, then you should just skip this column. I recommend taking Opus' advice in this situation, personally.
For the rest of us wonks, before I get to examining Bradley v. Obama, today I'd like to remind everyone that August polls don't mean a whole lot. I'd be saying that no matter who was ahead, mind you. Because I think we all need a reminder that not everyone is like us (quick test: do you know who Mark Penn is? Or David Axelrod?).
Because if you really look at the polls, you'll soon notice that about a third of America just isn't paying all that much attention.
This is fairly normal, it should be pointed out. And lots of these people will actually vote this November. Call them the great mass of Undecideds.
This, to the average wonk, is mind-blowing. After following every nuance of one of the longest campaigns in history, it may be hard to accept that a lot of people, for whatever reason, just haven't made up their minds between Obama and McCain yet. A recent CBS poll [PDF], just as an example (other polls show the same thing), shows that when asked their opinion of the candidates, about a third answered "undecided" or "haven't heard" for both Barack Obama (30%) and John McCain (33%). Of those that preferred either Obama or McCain when asked who they'd vote for, 27% of Obama voters and 31% of McCain voters said that it was "too early to say their mind was made up" about voting for their preferred candidate.
Digging even deeper into the numbers, when people with a preferred candidate were asked "compared to the other candidate, do you like yours (a great deal better / somewhat better / a little better), and then only asking voters who answered "somewhat" or "a little" whether their minds were made up (a total of 44% of Obama voters, and 50% of McCain voters), the numbers were almost identical. Of the weak voters for Obama, 46% had their mind made up, 52% said it was too early to say. Of McCain's weak voters, 46% had made up their minds, 54% had not.
So even among Americans willing to answer a pollster's questions over the phone, somewhere around a third haven't really made up their minds who to vote for, one way or another. Something for all of us to remember. When three people get together, statistically, one of them hasn't decided how to vote. So which one of your two best friends is still wavering?
Heh. Actually, statistics don't quite work that way, but I couldn't resist.
But there are two other factors in this race that are unknown (and, to a large degree, unknowable) and they point in opposite directions, so they may even cancel each other out to some degree (meaning that, even after the election, it may still be impossible to accurately quantify these). The first of these is the infamous Bradley Effect. Will Obama's white voter support in the polls be higher than his actual support on Election Day? Will this be a regional factor, or a nationwide factor? And how big a factor is it? All unanswerable questions now, and possibly ever.
The other factor works in Obama's favor, but since it is such a unique phenomenon it too may be impossible to predict before the election. How overwhelming is Obama's youth support going to be? How many of them will actually turn out to vote? How many of them have no landlines, and are hence being woefully undercounted in the polls (which usually don't call cell phones)? Will "The Obama Effect" be a tidalwave of new votes, or will it fizzle as it has almost every time in the past? Impossible to know at this point.
Nate Silver, who created FiveThrityEight.com, tries to make some sense of the youth vote numbers in a piece he wrote for the New York Post. He, quite correctly, points out that there have been many campaigns which optimistically predicted that young folks would turn out in droves in the past -- most of whom lost. However, this may finally be "the year" for young people to stun the polling community. Anecdotal reports from just about everywhere point to an energized youth vote that is actually excited about a candidate this time around. Obama's strength in the caucuses and primaries were one place this was made apparent. And in a general election, this might even be more pronounced.
Silver ends on an upbeat note for Obama:
Barack Obama has an advantage that Howard Dean and George McGovern didn't have -- the partisan ecology is so favorable to the Democrats that he can win the election even without turning out young voters. But they are his ace in the hole. If he can get them to turn out in something resembling the proportion that older voters do, his election becomes a near certainty.
At least, with young voters, exit polls will be able to tell if there's a sea-change in their voting patterns. So maybe next time around, pollsters will be more accurate. But until another black man runs for the Oval Office, the Bradley Effect question may be still unknowable even after the 2008 election.
But again, I caution everyone that even though I'm an avid poll-watcher myself (as I suspect many of you are), it is still only August. The conventions haven't even happened yet. Obama will likely get a bump in the polls after Denver, but it may be followed almost immediately after by a bump for McCain, after the Republican convention. September's polls will show a general firming-up of the numbers for both, but with so many Undecideds out there it could go one way or another.
Until then, maybe we should all take Opus' advice....
-- Chris Weigant
Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant
Great article, Chris. Soooo much fun to look back.
Chris1962 -
Well, hey, y'know...
Heh.
-CW
Yes, this is all quite hilarious.
In the meantime, I wonder what the anti-Enlightenment effect will be on whether President Obama will have to contend with the nonsense and ignorance of a larger or smaller number of House and Senate republicans throughout his second term.
I know I can be a little... er.. "loquacious" at times, a little overbearing..
But I have to ask and I hope ya'all can answer honestly..
Is anyone worried about Obama's re-election chances??
I mean, look at the hits that Obama has taken this summer..
Groups that were instrumental in his 2008 meteoric rise to power are abandoning him by the tens of thousands... Support from the black community is going down for Obama and support from the youth vote is rising for Romney..
Add to that, all the negative campaigning, the blatant lies from Obama ads and surrogates that are actually getting press coverage.
Democrats who, in the past, have been Paul Ryan Democrats and have had a LOT of nice things to say about Ryan.
Gaffes from Team Obama and Obama himself that show how out of touch Obama's bubble is with ordinary Americans.
Then there are the scandals that show Obama is not the transparent President he claimed he would be..
All of this adding up...
I have to ask.... Is anyone worried??
Be honest now...
Michale.....
Michale,
I can't honestly say that I'm worried. I think the prospects for the president's reelection are quite good.
Michale,
But, I am worried that Obama will not have the effective Democrat majorities in the House and Senate that will be required through his second term to continue the fragile economic recovery and make it stronger.
I can't honestly say that I'm worried. I think the prospects for the president's reelection are quite good.
I'm not trying to be argumentative here (really I'm not.. well, not MUCH anyways.. :D) I am sincerely curious..
What do you base that on??
But, I am worried that Obama will not have the effective Democrat majorities in the House and Senate that will be required through his second term to continue the fragile economic recovery and make it stronger.
We've seen what Obama can do when he has strong majorities in both houses of Congress.. And it ain't pretty...
I truly shudder to think what Obama will do when, unfettered by re-election considerations.
And I would wager that, amongst Americans, I am not alone in that fear..
He has already stated he is going to sell us out to the Russians..
Gods know what other damage he is going to do..
Michale....
He has already stated he is going to sell us out to the Russians..
OK, that might have been over the top hyperbole..
Amend that to say, "Obama has already stated that he won't have any public opinion concerns when dealing with the Russians after his re-election."
Michale.....
Michale,
I haven't enough time to waste on your nonsense.
:D I understand completely... :D
It's gonna be rough for ya'all in 90 days, I can imagine.... :D
I am just trying to mentally prepare ya'all for the inevitable...
Yer welcome. :D
Michale..
This is beautiful, and very informative. Elizabeth, I know you hate clicking on links; but PLEASE check this out. I never knew any of this important history :)
http://www.esquire.com/blogs/politics/morrill-symposium-11778233
I can't resist...I've been thinking about this scene for several months. I admit, it is heavy-handed, but for a 43 year old movie it was certainly prescient about the 1% and their 26% followers. And Peter Sellers was a GOOD fictional example of a self-aware 1%er :)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cQxL0O1lYvg
What's the Esquire link all about, Kevin?
Michale,
I've never known you to be overbearing.
Shall we bet on the inevitable? :)
It's as I said above (or afore.. Not sure which...)
Hillary rejected VP slot to ready her own 2016 run
http://washingtonexaminer.com/hillary-rejected-vp-slot-to-ready-her-own-2016-run/article/2505206#.UC59GKBsKZS
Team Obama was begging Hillary to replace Biden and Hillary told him to take a flying leap... :D
I think we can all rest assured that there WON'T be 4 more years of Obama....
Michale.....
Elizabeth, it's an interesting history about public higher education in the U.S. and the story of the exceptional life of the man behind it. I'd never heard of the guy; but he was responsible for SO MUCH about what is good in the country. And this all happened in the midst of the Civil War !!! If you don't already know this stuff (and I didn't), I think you'll find it fascinating.
And one last poke and then I'll never mention it again...what was your quiz score? :)
Liz,
I've never known you to be overbearing.
You are too kind.. :D
Shall we bet on the inevitable? :)
Abso-tively and Posi-loutly!!
I think we should have a Weigantia-wide wager.. Something to get everyone involved...
Michale.....
I have to admit to being sad and disappointed.
I've been looking forward to the user contributions every Tuesday and Thursday. There are so many clever and prolific commenters around here, I fully expected that Chris would be swamped trying to pick out the best pieces from stacks of prospects.
Maybe that's it, Chris just doesn't have the time to run an editorial eye over the reams of submissions.
I know you won't let me down, looking forward to your article soon!
CWC,
I have to admit I was pretty excited about submitting some commentaries.. Unfortunately, my work schedule has me eating, sleeping and breathing laptops and tablets practically every waking moment. And many SLEEPING moments as well.
Plus some personal family matters has put a damper on my normal bubbly exuberance...
But I hope to have a burst of creative insight just hit me at Warp 10 and something actually makes it to "paper"....
Michale....
Michale [4] -
Not really. Romney has gotten a small bump from the Ryan announcement, and he'll get another small bump from the convention, but Obama should get a similar bump a week or so later from the Dem convention. The polling has been pretty consistent, and Obama still has the electoral vote situation pretty well in hand. If that changes, I will get worried, but so far the changes have been pretty minor. I'll let you know if it happens, how's that?
Kevin -
OK, I haven't looked at the link yet. Is it about Horace Mann?
CWC -
Actually, I have to take the rap on this one. I do have a submission waiting (ONE, so anyone who wants to add to that total, please send it along!), but it was kind of heavy on the formatting, and I was swamped for time yesterday. So I punted. So the blame is all on me for the re-run, just had to come out and admit it. You'll see this column next Tuesday, I promise.
Michale -
Write it down, send it in!
:-)
-CW
CW,
The polling has been pretty consistent, and Obama still has the electoral vote situation pretty well in hand. If that changes, I will get worried, but so far the changes have been pretty minor.
So your basing your opinion on strictly the Electoral College and not all the crap that has come down the pipe that's dragging Obama down..
Would that be an accurate assessment??
I'll let you know if it happens, how's that?
Fair enough. :D
Michale.....
Chris,
No, a man named Morrill. I may of heard his name in the past, but Pierce (the article isn't that long and takes about 2 minutes to read) did a wonderful job educating me about him.
If there was any misunderstanding, I'd hoped EVERYONE would read that excellent piece. I was just teasing Elizabeth specifically because of her announced aversion to links :) Didn't work, either...Sigh.
Michale [21] -
Yep. Since that's how we actually elect presidents, that's what I keep my eyes on. Think about it: if national polling had anything to do with being elected, Al Gore would have been inaugurated. Also, I think you're overstating the case that Obama's been "dragged down". His national poll numbers are still staying remarkably steady, and he's had a few pretty good weeks in the polls.
Kevin -
Wow, that is a cool article! I had never heard of him. I had heard of the land-grant colleges, but never of the man behind the plan.
Thanks for the read, and I recommend it to all. Vermont has always been on the cutting edge of political thought, all the way back to the beginning.
Ethan Allen, after being declared an outlaw, in 1771:
"By Virtue of a late Law in the Province they are Not Allowed to hang any man before they have ketched him."
Heh. Such feistiness lives on today in the Green Mountain State...
:-)
-CW
Chris,
You, especially, I thought would appreciate the piece. Pleased I was right :)
Chris,
I'm posting this here in hopes that you'll read it. If you liked the piece on Morrill, check this out:
http://www.esquire.com/blogs/politics/joe-biden-chains-11844801
It directly addresses the Biden topic which you've received some backlash about (here and on Huffpo), and it has the funniest opening sentence since I can't remember when.
There's a good reason he's cited and lauded on just about every progressive blog I read.