Obama Poll Watch -- August, 2012
Program Note
This is going to be the shortest Obama Poll Watch column of all time. I am in the midst of packing and running around getting ready to travel to the Democratic National Convention. I will be flying all of tomorrow. So you're getting your OPW column early this month. There simply wasn't any other time to fit it in.
There will indeed be a column Monday, and it'll be somewhat of a surprise for convention week, so I encourage everyone to tune in as usual on Labor Day.
Back to the polling, you're going to have to draw your own conclusions this month. I'm going to present the raw data and the charts, and that's all I have time for. Obama's approval numbers went up, but so did his disapproval numbers, so you can interpret this any way you'd like. Here's the new chart, updated for August:
[Click on graph to see larger-scale version.]
August, 2012
Obama's average monthly job approval rating gained 0.6 percent this month, to finish up at 47.8 percent. His job disapproval rating slightly ticked up 0.2 points, to close at 48.3 percent. This leaves Obama a half a point underwater in the polls -- better than last month's 0.9 percent down.
Of note this month is how closely this election season is tracking George W. Bush in 2004. Check out the Obama/Bush comparison chart to see how their numbers were almost exactly the same at this point in their first terms. Also of note is the extremely low undecided number -- now down to 3.9 percent, lower than it has been for his entire term. It's election season, folks!
Overall Trends
Here's our "closer look" chart for your edification:
[Click on graph to see larger-scale version.]
Obama decisively reversed the trend downwards from last month in his approval, but his disapproval continued upwards on the same slope as last month. This was possible since more undecideds made up their mind.
OK, sorry, but that's all I've got time for. Join us tomorrow as our convention coverage begins!
[Obama Poll Watch Data:]
Sources And Methodology
ObamaPollWatch.com is an admittedly amateur effort, but we do try to stay professional when it comes to revealing our sources and methodology. All our source data comes from RealClearPolitics.com; specifically from their daily presidential approval ratings "poll of polls" graphic page. We take their daily numbers, log them, and then average each month's data into a single number -- which is then shown on our monthly charts here (a "poll of polls of polls," if you will...). You can read a much-more detailed explanation of our source data and methodology on our "About Obama Poll Watch" page, if you're interested.
Questions or comments? Use the Email Chris page to drop me a private note.
Column Archives
[Jul 12], [Jun 12], [May 12], [Apr 12], [Mar 12], [Feb 12], [Jan 12], [Dec 11], [Nov 11], [Oct 11], [Sep 11], [Aug 11], [Jul 11], [Jun 11], [May 11], [Apr 11], [Mar 11], [Feb 11], [Jan 11], [Dec 10], [Nov 10], [Oct 10], [Sep 10], [Aug 10], [Jul 10], [Jun 10], [May 10], [Apr 10], [Mar 10], [Feb 10], [Jan 10], [Dec 09], [Nov 09], [Oct 09], [Sep 09], [Aug 09], [Jul 09], [Jun 09], [May 09], [Apr 09], [Mar 09]
Obama's All-Time Statistics
Monthly
Highest Monthly Approval -- 2/09 -- 63.4%
Lowest Monthly Approval -- 10/11 -- 43.4%
Highest Monthly Disapproval -- 9/11, 10/11 -- 51.2%
Lowest Monthly Disapproval -- 1/09 -- 19.6%
Daily
Highest Daily Approval -- 2/15/09 -- 65.5%
Lowest Daily Approval -- 10/9/11 -- 42.0%
Highest Daily Disapproval -- 8/30/11 -- 53.2%
Lowest Daily Disapproval -- 1/29/09 -- 19.3%
Obama's Raw Monthly Data
[All-time high in bold, all-time low underlined.]
Month -- (Approval / Disapproval / Undecided)
08/12 -- 47.8 / 48.3 / 3.9
07/12 -- 47.2 / 48.1 / 4.7
06/12 -- 47.8 / 47.8 / 4.4
05/12 -- 48.1 / 47.8 / 4.1
04/12 -- 47.8 / 47.1 / 5.1
03/12 -- 47.7 / 47.2 / 5.1
02/12 -- 48.2 / 47.2 / 4.6
01/12 -- 46.3 / 48.3 / 5.4
12/11 -- 45.1 / 49.5 / 5.4
11/11 -- 44.4 / 50.2 / 5.4
10/11 -- 43.4 / 51.2 / 5.4
09/11 -- 43.5 / 51.2 / 5.3
08/11 -- 43.8 / 50.7 / 5.5
07/11 -- 46.2 / 47.8 / 6.0
06/11 -- 48.5 / 46.0 / 5.5
05/11 -- 51.4 / 43.1 / 5.5
04/11 -- 46.4 / 48.2 / 5.4
03/11 -- 48.1 / 46.4 / 5.5
02/11 -- 49.4 / 44.5 / 6.1
01/11 -- 48.5 / 45.7 / 5.8
12/10 -- 45.5 / 48.1 / 6.4
11/10 -- 45.5 / 49.0 / 5.5
10/10 -- 45.5 / 49.1 / 5.4
09/10 -- 45.7 / 49.7 / 4.6
08/10 -- 45.3 / 49.5 / 5.2
07/10 -- 46.6 / 47.4 / 6.0
06/10 -- 47.6 / 46.7 / 5.7
05/10 -- 48.1 / 45.5 / 6.4
04/10 -- 47.8 / 46.5 / 5.7
03/10 -- 48.1 / 46.4 / 5.5
02/10 -- 47.9 / 46.1 / 6.0
01/10 -- 49.2 / 45.3 / 5.5
12/09 -- 49.4 / 44.9 / 5.7
11/09 -- 51.1 / 43.5 / 5.4
10/09 -- 52.2 / 41.9 / 5.9
09/09 -- 52.7 / 42.0 / 5.3
08/09 -- 52.8 / 40.8 / 6.4
07/09 -- 56.4 / 38.1 / 5.5
06/09 -- 59.8 / 33.6 / 6.6
05/09 -- 61.4 / 31.6 / 7.0
04/09 -- 61.0 / 30.8 / 8.2
03/09 -- 60.9 / 29.9 / 9.2
02/09 -- 63.4 / 24.4 / 12.2
01/09 -- 63.1 / 19.6 / 17.3
-- Chris Weigant
Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant
Chris,
Bon voyage, safe journey and have lots of fun in Charlotte!
It'll be nice to have you in the Eastern time zone for a change. Heh.
LizM -
Thanks!
Yeah, maybe I won't have to get up at 4:00AM to get interviewed!
:-)
Check back tomorrow, there's a cool auto-post column that should be up by noon Pacific time, and everyone will want to read it... if something goes wrong with the auto-post, I'll fix it by midnight East Coast time, I promise, so keep checking back.
-CW
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J5VMX2JahrU&feature=player_embedded
That says it all...
"If I can't turn this economy around in 3 years, I don't *DESERVE* another term."
I say, we take Obama's advice...
Michale......
Michale,
How do I break this to you ...
The economy was turned around in LESS than three years! Much less, in fact.
Granted, we still have a ways to go to get back to where we started from (that is to say right about the end of the Clinton admnistration) but we are on the right track with no desire to go backwards now.
The economy was turned around in LESS than three years! Much less, in fact.
Yea... And last summer was the "Summer Of Recovery".... Or was that the summer before???
You ask ANY average American if they feel the economy has "turned around". I doubt you would find ONE who would say that the economy has turned around..
Other than someone who has a vested interest in making the claim.....
Any American who is not a political ideologue will tell you unequivocally that they are NOT better off than they were in Jan of 2009...
How much was gas when Obama took office?? $1.95 a gallon..
Now, we would kill to have such low prices again, what with seeing $3.92 a gallon these days...
Americans are NOT better off than we were in Jan of 2009...
Even Joe Biden can't explain how Americans are better off. Of course, he blames the heat, but hay.. You know ol' Joe.. :D
We're not better off.. It's that simple...
Will we be better off under Romney?? At least Romney understands business. He KNOWS who to make a business successful... If he can do that with a business, he can do that with a country...
Obama and the Democrats had their chance...
They blew it..
Time for a clean sweep...
It's really THAT simple...
Michale.....
To look at a map searching for Democrats of the future though, is to be reminded of a painful truth for the party gathering in Charlotte: President Obama is their undisputed leader, but the Obama presidency has been a time of deep Democratic decline.
-John King, CNN
CNN is a standard water-carrier for Obama.
Even THEY recognize how bad Obama and the Democrats have been for this country...
How else does one explain the Great Democrat Shellacking of 2010???
Michale....
Oh Sorry... I forgot that everyone here LOVES facts..
When Obama took office, 56 Senate seats were Democrats. It's 51 now...
Democrats had 257 seats in the House when Obama took office. That number has shrunk down to 190 plus 3 Dem vacancies waiting to be filled..
Obama had 29 Dem governors when he became POTUS.. Now he has 20...
Of State Legislative seats, 4073 were Democrats in Jan of 2009.. Now??? 3319 are Democrats...
No matter HOW you slice it, no matter WHAT litmus test you use, the FACTS clearly indicate that the time of the Democrat has come and gone...
LEAD, FOLLOW OR GET OUT OF THE WAY...
It's time for Democrats to get out of the way...
Michale.....
No matter HOW you slice it, no matter WHAT litmus test you use, the FACTS clearly indicate that the time of the Democrat has come and gone...
LEAD, FOLLOW OR GET OUT OF THE WAY...
and how did this turn of events come to pass? republicans have regained much of their power by being IN the way, then successfully framing the stagnation on democrats. democrats would have to be fools to behave any differently. oh wait...
framing = blaming
and how did this turn of events come to pass?
Simple..
Republicans saw how Democrats behaved when they had complete unchallenged and unequivocal control of the government..
They reasoned, correctly in MNSHO, that *these* Democrats simply cannot be trusted to run the government..
So, they decided that, WHATEVER it took, they were going to make sure that these Democrats could not be in a position to cause any more damage to this country..
The Ends Justifies The Means...
A concept that Democrats have whole-heartedly embraced in the last 3 years...
Michale.....
Anyone wanna talk about this new Documentary that is making a HUGE splash??
2016; OBAMA's America???
If the Leftest of the Left Steven Spielberg calls it fair and truthful, then it's definitely a movie to see..
I'll be watching it today and I'll report back.. :D
Michale.....
Hill Poll: Voters say second term undeserved, country is worse off
http://thehill.com/conventions-2012/dem-convention-charlotte/247263-hill-poll-voters-think-second-term-undeserved
Doesn't look good for the Home team...
Michale.....
Someone here posted that Democrats don't lie as much as Republicans..
Oh really??
For more than 200 years, our party has led the fight for civil rights....
democrats.org/about/our_history
Democrats have a long and proud history of defending Civil Rights and expanding opportunity for all Americans.
democrats.org/issues/civil_rights
Somewhere, there is a puppet rolling in his grave...
I think we can put to rest the complete and utter fantasy that, somehow, Democrats are less liars than Republicans....
"Just the facts, ma'am"
-Detective Joe Friday
Michale...
Speaking of polls....
It should be noted that, Labor Day 1980, President Carter lead Reagan by 6 points in the election polls...
As I indicated earlier, we all know how THAT election turned out...
Other than the unequivocal desperation of the Left and Team Obama, I see nothing to indicate that history will not repeat itself....
Michale.....
"...Fifty-two percent of likely voters say the nation is in “worse condition” now than in September 2008, while 54 percent say Obama does not deserve reelection based solely on his job performance...."
Gee, that's roughly the percentage of voters who voted O into office. I'm smelling a bit of buyer's remorse.
Excellent OpEd piece on why Israel cannot expect ANY help from Obama AFTER the election..
http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2012/09/04/why-obama-has-abandoned-israel-and-jews-should-abandon-obama/
If Obama is elected, Israel will likely cease to exist in Obama's next term...
Michale.....
Democrats set to move Obama's big speech from 74,000-seater outdoor stadium to 20,000-seater indoor arena
Democrats are poised to avoid the danger of President Barack Obama accepting his party’s nomination before a partially-empty stadium by shifting his speech to an indoor arena and citing ‘severe weather’.
The Obama campaign have been working desperately to ensure that the 74,000-seater Bank of America stadium in Charlotte would be filled.
Buses for students from across North Carolina and even members of black churches in neighboring South Carolina have been arranged.
Images of rows of empty seats at the stadium, home of the Carolina Panthers, as Obama speaks on Thursday night would be politically disastrous – an enduring image of the contrast between his campaign of ‘hope’ and ‘change’ in 2008 and his dour, negative struggle for re-election in 2012.
Now, it looks like the weather has come to the President's rescue.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2198206/Democrats-set-Obamas-big-speech-74-000-seater-outdoor-stadium-20-000-seater-indoor-arena.html
The magic is gone...
Michale.....
One thing that is REALLY going to affect the Dem Convention is the Unemployment numbers this Friday...
If they're worse, it's going to underscore the futility of keeping Democrats in office..
If they're better, it might allow Dems to get back some MUCH needed credibility...
Michale.....
Dems bring in crowds by the busload to fill stadium for Obama speech
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/09/03/dems-bring-in-crowds-by-busload-to-fill-stadium-for-obama-speech/#ixzz25Woz0u25
Dems bring in crowds by the busload to fill stadium for Obama speech
And that STILL didn't fill up the stadium... They had to move the venue for the speech that had 40,000+ less seats so as not to make Obama look like an idiot..
Too late! :D
Michale.....
And that STILL didn't fill up the stadium... They had to move the venue for the speech that had 40,000+ less seats so as not to make Obama look like an idiot..
That would be *50,000+* less seats!!! :D
"Whatta maroon!"
-Bugs Bunny
:D
Michale.....
Oh yea.....
Tiny convention floor!
http://washingtonexaminer.com/tiny-convention-floor/article/2506813#.UEZQw5anzUJ
Democrats know how to throw a party!!!
NOT!!!!!
:D
Michale.....
Pro-Israel Language Removed From Democratic Party Platform
http://freebeacon.com/pro-israel-language-removed-from-democratic-party-platform/
I think between Comment #16 and the above, it's completely clear that Obama and the Democrats have utterly and completely thrown Israel under the bus...
As much as it pains me to say, Netanyahu and Israel don't owe a damn thing to the Obama Administration..
"Kick the tires and light the fires"
-Harry Connick Jr, INDEPENDENCE DAY
Kick Iran's ass, Israel! The majority of Americans are with you, even if our government is not...
Michale....
“It is unfortunate that the entire Democratic Party has embraced President Obama’s shameful refusal to acknowledge that Jerusalem is Israel’s capital. Four years of President Obama’s repeated attempts to create distance between the United States and our cherished ally have led the Democratic Party to remove from their platform an unequivocal acknowledgment of a simple reality. As president, I will restore our relationship with Israel and stand shoulder to shoulder with our close ally.”
-Soon-To-Be-President-Elect Mitt Romney
If anyone needs a reason to vote for Romney, there it is...
Michale.....
Wow Michale so much nonsense I don't even know where to begin. Maybe you could try and stick to the point of the main blog post just a little bit? So far you've got the economy, 2010 elections, Israel, the convention, unemployment and more in your list of rants. Calm down!
Sorry if you can't keep up, Michty..
But ALL of those points you mention have relevance to the upcoming election AND with the polls, which is (after all) the subject of this commentary.....
OBAMA POLL WATCH
:D
I'll try and slow down for you, but I can't promise anything.... :D
You might have to up your game a little... :D
Michale
Haha I'll wait until you realise you are basically talking to yourself!
Haha I'll wait until you realise you are basically talking to yourself!
I understand...
Such rapid fire information, while common in my former profession, is kind of hard for civilians to keep up with..
I'll attempt to dumb it down for ya, but don't hold yer breath.... :D
Michale....
Well I was more interested in debating and discussing things - posting a string of right-wing rhetoric on many different topics, that most people are just simply ignoring, doesn't really accomplish much!
that most people are just simply ignoring,
Yea, ask the Jewish people here in America if they are "simply ignoring" this issue??
I bet you will be surprised... :D
Michale.....
Just out of interest since you've actually settled on 1 topic, I thought you didn't like religion Michale? You think basing a foreign policy entirely on religion is a good thing? You think what the Middle-East needs is MORE US interference? Or are you just arguing this because you don't like Obama?
First, let me say, no offense to any religious people reading this...
I hate religion...
Religion is the biggest crutch ever conceived...
My admiration and support of Israel has absolutely NOTHING to do with religion and EVERYTHING to do with the respect I feel for Israelis, especially their military.
I have been deployed to Israel on many occasions and have always been honored and privileged to work with the best of the best.
I admire the tenacity and the never-say-die attitude of the Israeli people.. If there ever was a people and a culture that DESERVED to survive, it would be the Israelis...
While I am somewhat chagrined about having to support a foreign country against my own, I am firmly convinced that Israel and the Israeli people are worthy of that support...
I have nothing to do with, nor nothing in common with the Jewish people, as far as their religion goes..
But I would gladly take up arms to defend the nation of Israel as ferociously and with as much dedication as I would defend my own nation...
So.... Yea.. Count me in Israel's corner.. :D
It has absolutely NOTHING to do with religion or politics.. And everything to do with honor and a debt that is owed..
Michale.....
Good post Michale.
Danke..
Michale,
While I am somewhat chagrined about having to support a foreign country against my own...
You're gonna have to give me a freakin' break on that one, my friend.
What on earth do you really mean by that, anyway?