2012 Electoral Math -- Obama Solidifies Bounce
We last surveyed the electoral math a week and a half ago, but as we get closer to the election, the poll data will stream in faster and faster, meaning we've got to keep up by pacing these columns faster as well.
While the overall split between the candidates hasn't changed a whole lot since last time, the dynamics of the race underlying the overall numbers has indeed shifted for both candidates. The news was slightly better for each candidate in some regards, and slightly worse in others. All around, Barack Obama is holding onto and improving on his post-convention bounce, and Mitt Romney continues to struggle to make any ground, while slightly strengthening his base.
Here's how the election would break down if held today. Obama's electoral votes (or "EV") start from the bottom of the chart and are measured in blue, while Romney's start from the top and are in red, with ties colored white in the middle. As mentioned, this chart has stayed fairly stable:
[Click on any of theses graphs to see larger-scale versions.]
Both candidates spiked downward briefly, as states posted tied polls, but then mostly recovered. New Hampshire is still tied, bringing Obama down minutely to 61 percent. Romney ended as he started, around 38 percent.
Thirteen states this time around showed significant shifts in polling, but by the end of the period three had wobbled back to where they started. Michigan briefly lost support for Obama, then regained it, and each candidate lost a state to a "tied" poll before regaining it: Obama in Colorado, and Romney in North Carolina.
Romney's good news balanced his bad news, as two states got stronger and two got weaker. Polls in both South Dakota and Georgia showed Romney has locked up these two, while Indiana got weaker and Arizona got alarmingly weak for Romney.
Obama had more good news than bad this time around, as one state considerably weakened while five strengthened. Connecticut is now all but a lock for Obama, and four very critical swing states are looking better and better: Nevada, Ohio, Virginia, and Wisconsin. New Hampshire is still tied, which is a major drop in polling there for Obama.
Let's take a closer look at each candidate's chart, starting with Mitt Romney:
[Definition of terms: "Strong" means 10% or better in the polls,
"Weak" means 5% or better, and "Barely" is under five percent.]
Mitt Romney started out this period (from the last vertical line, signifying when the last of these columns ran) with Indiana dropping from Strong to Weak. He almost immediately offset this loss with two polls from rarely-polled states, Georgia and South Dakota, which moved them both into Strong Romney. A bigger blow to the Romney team was losing Arizona from Weak to Barely, continuing a downward slide for Romney in the state. Can Obama actually compete in Arizona? If I were Romney, that thought would be worrisome, to say the least. North Carolina was briefly tied, ominously putting Romney's total in the chart at below 200 EV for the second time this month.
Overall, Romney recovered and ended where he started, with a total of 206 EV. Within the categories, it was a mixed result, as Romney actually improved his Strong numbers from 128 EV to 136 EV, but lost ground on the more important "Strong Plus Weak" metric, falling from 181 EV to 170 EV. This is not only a low point for Romney's entire campaign here, but is also a full 36 EV lower than it was two weeks ago. That is a trend which is heading into some dismal territory for Mitt Romney's campaign.
By comparison, let's take a look at Barack Obama's chart:
Obama started off this period losing Michigan from Strong down to Weak, but by the end had captured it back. Colorado moved from Barely to Tied, but then bounced back as well. More worrisome (although proportionally much smaller) was the loss of New Hampshire from Weak all the way down to Tied, where it remains today. But from this point on, the news was all good for Team Obama, as Wisconsin and Virginia moved from Barely to Weak and Connecticut moved from Weak to Strong once again. The biggest news was at the end, when Nevada and Ohio also moved from Barely to Weak for Obama.
Overall, Obama's total didn't change much, and actually slipped back from 332 EV to 328 EV, with the loss of New Hampshire. Below the surface, however, Obama started with a small slump but then came roaring back. His Strong number started at 208 EV, fell to 192 EV, and then rose to finish at a whopping 215 EV -- nine more electoral votes than Mitt Romney's overall total, it bears pointing out. At the same time, Obama more than doubled his count in the Weak category, from 33 EV to 69 EV. The only bad news Obama got (other than New Hampshire) was that he didn't manage to steal away any Romney states -- which isn't all that bad of news, at this stage in the race.
The biggest news for Obama is that he has now hit a significant milestone in the electoral race, one he has already managed to accomplish three times already -- Obama's Strong Plus Weak number now stands at 284 EV, which is 14 more than he needs to win a second term. If the election were held today and all the polls stayed firm, to put this another way, it would not matter how Colorado, Iowa, North Carolina, and Florida voted, because Obama would win without their votes.
Obama managed to increase his Strong Plus Weak number by 43 EV this time around, while Romney lost ground in this category. Last time we compared the two, Obama had a 60 EV lead over Romney, but this time Obama's Strong Plus Weak is a monumental 114 EV better than Romney's add up to. That could be the start of an insurmountable lead, although we still have almost six weeks to go and things could always change.
My Picks
As always, my picks rely more on my gut than just raw poll numbers, and are nothing more than how I am personally filling in the electoral map these days. Slightly different categories are used, to avoid too much confusion, and full lists of each category's states appear at the bottom, along with a check on which states either haven't been polled at all this year, or haven't been polled in quite a while.
Likely States -- Obama
Safe Obama (15 states, 186 EV)
Obama gains one state in the rock-solid "Safe" category, as Connecticut -- even with its bizarre Senate race -- seems like a total lock for Obama at this point.
Probable Obama (6 states, 74 EV)
Lots of movement within the Probable category, as Obama loses two states (one up, one down) and gains two to replace them. Connecticut moved up to Safe Obama, but New Hampshire fell down to only Leaning Obama. To replace them, we're moving up Virginia and Wisconsin. By polling numbers alone, these two states look better and better for Obama, and I've got a good feeling about both of them, so they land in Probable Obama this time around.
Likely States -- Romney
Safe Romney (19 states, 156 EV)
Romney adds two states to his Safe category, as Georgia and South Dakota move upwards.
Probable Romney (2 states, 14 EV)
Romney loses three states here, as Georgia and South Dakota move up and Arizona moves down to Lean Romney.
Tossup States
Lean Obama (5 states, 63 EV)
This category saw the most action during this period, as Obama loses three states, holds onto one, and adds one to Lean. Wisconsin and Virginia both moved up to Probable Obama, which was the good news. The bad news was New Hampshire moving down here. I almost moved New Hampshire all the way down to Too Close To Call, but I think they just had one bad poll and Obama is stronger than an actual tie in the state. Colorado also weakened, and has been weaker than New Hampshire recently, so I did move it down to Too Close To Call. Four states stayed in this category since last time around. Florida and Iowa still can't be seen as stronger than Lean Obama, and while a case could be made to move up Nevada and Ohio, their firming up is so recent that more time must be given to see whether Obama can hold onto his edge.
Lean Romney (2 states, 21 EV)
Missouri stays weakly in Romney's camp, and Arizona can't be seen as any stronger than Lean Romney right now, either. Arizona could even migrate down to Too Close To Call eventually, but more polling is needed before such a drastic move.
Too Close To Call (2 states, 24 EV)
Mitt Romney's hold on North Carolina remains tenuous at best. Colorado moves into this category as well this time, as Obama's advantage is just as razor-slim as Romney's in North Carolina right now.
Final Tally
Barack Obama not only got a bounce from the Democratic National Convention, he consolidated it and began setting a very positive trendline in the Electoral College. By my figuring (feel free to disagree in the comments, as always), Obama has 260 EV in his pocket right now. Mitt Romney has slipped to only being able to count on 170 EV. Obama needs only ten more electoral votes to cross the finish line out of all the tossup states, while Romney needs an even 100 EV to do the same.
As time goes by, it's getting harder and harder to see how Mitt Romney is going to accomplish that mighty feat. President Obama, on the other hand, needs only Florida, North Carolina, or Ohio to nudge him into victory -- or any two of New Hampshire, Iowa, and Nevada. His paths to victory are becoming ever more numerous, while Mitt Romney still has to capture virtually every single tossup state remaining -- Romney needs 100 EV out of only 108 EV available.
Of course, we are heading into debate season, so things could always change, but at the moment it is looking decidedly good for an Obama win.
[Electoral Vote Data:]
(State electoral votes are in parenthesis following each state's name. Washington D.C. is counted as a state)
Barack Obama Likely Easy Wins -- 21 States -- 260 Electoral Votes:
Safe States -- 15 States -- 186 Electoral Votes
California (55), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (20), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (11), New Jersey (14), New York (29), Oregon (7), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Washington D.C. (3), Washington (12)
Probable States -- 6 States -- 74 Electoral Votes
Michigan (16), Minnesota (10), New Mexico (5), Pennsylvania (20), Virginia (13), Wisconsin (10)
Mitt Romney Likely Easy Wins -- 21 States -- 170 Electoral Votes:
Safe States -- 19 States -- 156 Electoral Votes
Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arkansas (6), Georgia (16), Idaho (4), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (8), Mississippi (6), Nebraska (5), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (9), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (38), Utah (6), West Virginia (5), Wyoming (3)
Probable States -- 2 States -- 14 Electoral Votes
Indiana (11), Montana (3)
Tossup States -- 9 States -- 108 Electoral Votes:
Tossup States Leaning Obama -- 5 States -- 63 Electoral Votes
Florida (29), Iowa (6), Nevada (6), New Hampshire (4), Ohio (18)
Tossup States Leaning Romney -- 2 States -- 21 Electoral Votes
Arizona (11), Missouri (10)
Too Close To Call -- 2 States -- 24 Electoral Votes
Colorado (9), North Carolina (15)
No polling data since June:
(States which have not been polled since the beginning of July, with the dates of their last poll)
Maryland (5/21), Rhode Island (2/22), South Carolina (1/13), Tennessee (5/9), Texas (5/13), and Utah (6/21).
No polling data at all, yet:
(States which have not been polled so far this year)
Alaska, Delaware, Hawaii, Idaho, Kansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Washington D.C., Wyoming.
Electoral Math Column Series Archive:
[Sep 17][Aug 22] [Aug 8] [Jul 18] [Jun 25]
-- Chris Weigant
Cross-posted at Business Insider
Cross-posted at The Huffington Post
Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant
Could we just hold this next Tuesday so we could end the barrage of campaign ads?
Sincerely,
Ohio
Applying the definition of a toss-up State as "a State which either candidate leads by <2 points" there are only 2 toss-up States left: North Carolina and New Hampshire. NH is also one of the least polled battleground States.
Every other battleground is now solidly leaning Obama. Colorado and Florida are closest to moving back to toss-up. Arizona and Missouri are indeed moving the wrong way for Romney but there is not enough polling data to confirm this shift.
A couple of Florida polls actually showed Romney losing the elderly vote, which must have been a concern of his/target of Obama's after his selection of Ryan. If this holds true he is doomed.
Could we just hold this next Tuesday so we could end the barrage of campaign ads?
Feeling a little stressed out??? :D
Thank the gods we don't see commercials here. It would probably drive me ape-sheet..
I'de be throwing stuff at the TV left and right..
Literally.. Left AND Right.. :D
Michale....
Feeling a little stressed out??? :D
Fortunately I don't watch much TV ...
But I don't think people in non-swing states understand the barrage we're under. Literally, all of the commercials between shows will be political ads.
Every ... one ...
I think legislation should be introduced which makes all ads equal in all states so that if we have to be subjected to this crap, everyone should
:)
-David
David,
But I don't think people in non-swing states understand the barrage we're under. Literally, all of the commercials between shows will be political ads.
Every ... one ...
I can only imagine what it must be like for the clueless undecideds:
- OMG Obama is evil, I love Romney!
- Romney did what?! Screw him I love Obama!
- Obama is a socialist?? No way! I'm voting Romney!
- Oh wait Romney doesn't care about the poor. I'm voting Obama!
- Screw Obama and Romney I'm voting Cam from Modern Family!
- Screw Obama and Romney I'm voting Cam from Modern Family!
LOL ... this is what I think it's like for everyone.
The interesting thing is that w/ ad levels at saturation point, this might actually impact their effectiveness.
All I think anyone hears is blah, blah, blah ...
-David
- Screw Obama and Romney I'm voting Cam from Modern Family!
Considering that he's dating Charlize Theron (an African American no less!!) Cam gets MY vote too!!! :D
Michale......
Though I do have to say this could be one of the best political ads ever ...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B9xCCaseop4&feature=player_embedded
Sorry, Michale ... don't watch if you don't want to get angry.
Why I think it will be an effective ad is because it is simply Mitt Romney speaking. It's not the usual unnamed scary voice trying to fill you with fear.
-David
Sorry, Michale ... don't watch if you don't want to get angry.
Why would I get angry??
Everything Romney said was absolutely true.
Those people WILL vote for Obama regardless.. They don't want their sugar train to derail..
Did you see the YouTube of that lady, "Obama gave me a phone!!! He's got my vote!!!"
That's the ONLY way that Obama can GET votes..
He has to BUY them...
Pretty pathetic, if you ask me..
Did you ask me??? Or were you just makin' chit chat?? :D
Michale.....
As far as Romney saying "It's not my job to worry about them", he was saying that in the context of, "They are going to vote for Obama no matter what"
But, I think you already knew that.. :D
Michale.....
Did you see the YouTube of that lady, "Obama gave me a phone!!! He's got my vote!!!"
Obama's giving out phones? Sign me up!
-David
Those people WILL vote for Obama regardless.. They don't want their sugar train to derail
Lol I'd love to take a tour of Michale-world one day. You do know who 'those people' are?
Don't make me have to hit you with facts again...
We'd like to welcome "Chris Weigant" as a new commenter. Your first comment was held for moderation, and you should now be able to post instantly...
Heh. OK, sorry folks, I am beginning to emerge from a week spent in the darkest depths of Style Guide Mordor, otherwise known as "how to properly write citations of other works in footnotes and endnotes."
I have learned many new and wond'rous things. Well, maybe not -- "new" is true, at any rate. Such as "s.v." is the abbreviation for sub verbo. Why is this important, you wonder? Well, mostly it's not, unless you have to cite a dictionary. Say you use "of course, the dictionary definition is..." or "Webster's says..." in your writing. When citing it, you don't cite the page number, but rather the word (For instance: Webster's Third Edition, NYC, 2012, s.v. "quatloo").
Also, I've been possessive-izing names wrong when they end in "s" -- which is not Chris' fault but most definitely now is Chris's fault.
What else? Page numbers now exist on their own, without "p." or "pp." to introduce them.
Sigh. Is anyone falling asleep? Sorry, I'm beginning to bore even myself. So you can see what kind of week it's been. I'm almost done, and so I'm playing hooky and answering blog comments, which I have again become shamefully lax at doing.
akadjian [1] -
OK, now THAT was funny!
:-)
michty6 [2] -
Obama is even now teasing Romney by "leaking" that they might open up some offices in AZ. Talk about hitting a man when he's down (snerk).
David [4] -
Isn't that "National Popular Vote"? It should have the same effect on TV commercials...
michty6 [5] -
Search out "Saturday Night Live sketch undecided voters" if you want a laugh...
David [8] -
Search out "Samuel Jackson WTFU ad". Heh. Now THAT'S a funny ad!
OK, that's it for now... they don't seem to be handing out Obamaphones around here...
-CW
Obama's giving out phones? Sign me up!
Wow... Yer easy... :D
I would hold out at LEAST until Obama offers to pay your mortgage... :D
Michale....
I have to wonder if ya'all would be as flippant if this lady said the same thing about Romney..
No, actually, I don't have to wonder.. :D
Michale.....
Obama is even now teasing Romney by "leaking" that they might open up some offices in AZ. Talk about hitting a man when he's down (snerk).
It ain't Romney who's down in Arizona: http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/arizona/election_2012_arizona_president
CB,
Shhhhhhhhhhh
We are at war with Eurasia....
We have always been at way with Eurasia.....
Don't upset the Liberals.... :D
Like I said, iddn't it ironic that it would be the DEMOCRATS who ushered in 1984.... :D
Michale.....
LOL! I read somewhere, today, that voter registration for Dems is waaaaaaaaaay down in some of the critical swing states.
I get the funny feeling that a lot of these pollsters are using 2008 models, like they're expecting the same immense turnout that O got the last time. I really don't see that happening. I don't see tons of "yutes" turning out again, for starters.
David,
I feel your pain ... I really, really do!
Also, I've been possessive-izing names wrong when they end in "s" -- which is not Chris' fault but most definitely now is Chris's fault.
:::snicker::: Now it's gonna drive you crazy every time you see that mistake made by a journalist.
I get the funny feeling that a lot of these pollsters are using 2008 models, like they're expecting the same immense turnout that O got the last time. I really don't see that happening. I don't see tons of "yutes" turning out again, for starters.
Yea, Dems are really going to be in for a shock on 7 Nov....
They are trying to relive the hey days of 2008, but they are going to have a rude awakening when they discover that it's going to be 2010 on steroids... :D
Michale.....
"Don't boo, vote," President Obama often says in his stump speech whenever crowds boo a Romney plan.
The off-hand call to vote may be by design. It comes amid a precipitous decline in Democratic voter registration in key swing states -- nowhere more apparent than in Ohio.
Voter registration in the Buckeye State is down by 490,000 people from 4 years ago. Of that reduction,. 44 percent is in Cleveland and surrounding Cuyahoga County, where Democrats outnumber Republicans more than two to one.
foxnews.com/politics/2012/09/27/drop-in-ohio-voter-registration-especially-in-dem-strongholds-mirrors/#ixzz27l3V19ep
If I were Democrats, I would be VERY worried..
But, of course, they're not...
http://tinyurl.com/85qsefo
:D
Michale.....
This report compiles data from Secretaries of State in each of the 8 key swing states with partisan voter registration and found striking never-before-released statistics. The number of Independents is up 3.4% in those states—while Democrats have dropped 5.4% and Republicans have fallen by 3.1%. That means 254,310 new Independent voters to woo in 2012, and 825,708 fewer Democrats. Our analysis also predicts that 2012 will see the highest turnout rate among Independents in 35 years—since Ford v. Carter in 1976. That means if President Obama performs at the levels Democrats did in the 2010 midterms with Independents, it would spell disaster, with 5 key swing states in the loss column and the others substantially tightening, no matter how well Obama does among Democratic voters.
(emphasis mine)
http://www.thirdway.org/publications/470
For the record, The Third Way is a LEFT leaning Think Tank...
Shall we start marinating the Crow for the 7 Nov feast??? :D
7 Nov is going to be SUCH a fun day... :D
Michale.....
It ain't Romney who's down in Arizona: http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/arizona/election_2012_arizona_president
It's useless to post a poll around here that DOESN'T support Obama..
Even though Rasmussen was the most accurate poll taking service in 2008, the criteria for polls in Weigantia seems to be:
Poll Supports Obama = Dead On Ballz Accurate Poll
Poll Doesn't Support Obama = Totally skewed Right Wing Poll That Should Be Burned And Pollsters Should Be Arrested For Racist Hate Crime
Michale.....
Even though Rasmussen was the most accurate poll taking service in 2008, the criteria for polls in Weigantia seems to be:
Did I mention that all polls are shit?? :D
Michale.....
Obama is even now teasing Romney by "leaking" that they might open up some offices in AZ. Talk about hitting a man when he's down (snerk).
Meh I doubt he'll do this. There is really no point. Trying to get 350 EV instead of 340 is kinda pointless. I don't think Obama is trying in Arizona or Missouri which is why he'll lose those. He is definitely still trying in NC and has a slim lead now (still toss-up)...
Michale
That means if President Obama performs at the levels Democrats did in the 2010 midterms with Independent
Lololololololololol amazing. You actually think a Presidential election is similar to a midterm???
It's useless to post a poll around here that DOESN'T support Obama..
I know what you mean that biased liberal media machine Fox News is again showing Obama +5 today. The people at Fox are in for a huge shock when their socialist President that they are propping up comes falling down...
Even though Rasmussen was the most accurate poll taking service in 2008
Get this Michale: I believe Rasmussen will still be up there in the most accurate for 2012. Unfortunately this mainly because accuracy is just measured by the last poll they release the day before the election, not the average of their entire polls...
I am wondering though: if Obama matches the results being predicted for him in the polls will this ALSO be a liberal media conspiracy? Will it be proof the election was rigged??
ME: Applying the definition of a toss-up State as "a State which either candidate leads by <2 points" there are only 2 toss-up States left: North Carolina and New Hampshire. NH is also one of the least polled battleground States.
NH gets an Obama +7 poll today moving him to +2.5 on the average and we're down to 1 toss-up State - North Carolina!
I'm curious, michty...
What's going to be your reaction when Romney becomes our next president??
Besides the massive ingestion of a crow-like substance?? :D
Michale.....
Here's a non-Fox take on Ohio voter registration:
Ohio has gone from an unaffiliated majority state in 2008 (54.20%) and 2007 (64.86%) to an unaffiliated blowout state in 2011: 78.51%. Both the Democratic and Republican parties have taken a hit here, but the Democrats have taken the heavier hit. What was a DEM +10.57% registration edge in 2008 and a +2.21% registration edge in 2007 is now a GOP +0.83% edge, but both parties are so in the low teens that anything is possible. This is a jump of +13.64% for the unaffiliateds over 2007 and a +24.31% shift to the affiliateds over 2008.
http://rosenthalswelt.blogspot.com/2011/06/complete-vr-statistics-for-june-2011.html
"Ask not what your country can do for you, but what you can do for your country"
-John F Kennedy
http://www.weeklystandard.com/sites/all/files/images/-7.img_assist_custom-640x572.png
"Ask not what you can do for your country, but what I can give you, at taxpayer's expense, to buy your vote."
-Barack Obama
I mean, forget all aspects of INCOMPETENCE on Obama's part..
Obama doesn't DESERVE to be President...
Michale.....
What's going to be your reaction when Romney becomes our next president?
Lol not having to live in your country it wouldn't bother me too much if Romney won. I'd shift my portfolio and reduce American stocks - you can ride the austerity train on your own. The way I see it if your country is stupid enough to elect this guy then quite frankly you don't deserve to be the world's no.1 super-power for much longer. And Romney will take care of that in his first term probably. The demise of America means less to me than to you guys...
Of course I would like to see a solid America leading the world economically and in social standards. But it's your country - you can choose to wreck it if you like!
Lol not having to live in your country it wouldn't bother me too much if Romney won. I'd shift my portfolio and reduce American stocks - you can ride the austerity train on your own. The way I see it if your country is stupid enough to elect this guy then quite frankly you don't deserve to be the world's no.1 super-power for much longer. And Romney will take care of that in his first term probably. The demise of America means less to me than to you guys...
Yea, cuz Obama has done SOOO much good for us, eh?? :D
I have to give you credit though.. At least you actually answered the question... Most ObamaBots around here would have simply refused to even consider the possibility let alone articulate it...
So, credit where credit is due.. : D
Michale.....
I'm a numbers guy. Until the probability of Obama being elected hits 100%, which it never will until actual election day, I'm always going to be prepared for the idea that something could happen and ready to adjust.
And I always see the glass half full: either America continues it's current path in world economic and social leadership or it goes on a whole other crazy path that will probably result in a another global recession and the removal of America as the world's number 1 economy. If you choose the latter you live with the consequences!
And I always see the glass half full: either America continues it's current path in world economic and social leadership or it goes on a whole other crazy path that will probably result in a another global recession and the removal of America as the world's number 1 economy.
I actually choose the former, but it's obvious that Obama can't deliver that..
Can Romney???
I dunno.. But, in THIS case, the devil we DON'T know is infinitely preferable to the devil we DO know..
Michale.....
Can Romney?
Well I'd suggest you ask yourself that first. But as we both know you don't give a crap about Romney's policies. Romney could have a policy to 'nuke every Democratic State or 'sell the entire military to China to pay off the deficit' and you'd still vote for him because you hate Obama so much.
PS. I kind of like the last policy a little ;)
Romney could have a policy to 'nuke every Democratic State
Ever read a book called THE LAST PRESIDENT???
You would like it. :D
Michale