Let The 2016 Speculation Begin!
OK, let me start by saying that headline is really just a cheap joke. Sort of. The wonks of America will indeed start speculating about the 2014 and 2016 elections either tonight or sometime tomorrow morning, at the latest, but I'm going to refrain from such idle chatter for now, mostly because we've got this year's election to get through first.
I don't really have much to say today, other than to urge everyone to get out and vote for whomever you please. My wife will be voting in her first presidential election later today, so we're pretty excited just about the concept of "voting" in our household. She has voted before, but only in off-year elections (her first one was pretty disappointing, because it was an off-off-year election, so she had the thrill of voting for various dogcatcher type offices). But this one is a big one, surely we can all agree on that!
Voting is a pretty stunning thing, when you think about it. Not all the "civics class" patriotic stuff, but the actual nuts and bolts of it. Oh, sure, there are irregularities and machines that don't work and whatnot, but consider that everyone in America will have the chance to travel not-very-far and participate in an activity that is open to all citizens across the enormous width and breadth of our country. Not even gathering around the television to watch the Super Bowl ads comes close, really. Tens of millions of us will be making our way to schools, churches, community centers, and even graveyards (make your own "graveyard vote" joke here if you wish, but my precinct actually sets up shop at a local cemetery's building, so that is indeed where I'll be voting). The coordination and tactical problems alone boggle the mind. How many polling places are there in America? I know we have just over 3,000 counties, so make your own estimate of how many local voting operations must be set up simultaneously. As I said, it truly is an enormous undertaking (whoops, looks like I made my own graveyard joke, there).
Of course we'll have a few stories tonight about how things didn't go smoothly here and there. Dark mutterings will be muttered by one side or another about the conspiracies which led to this breakdown or that. But in reality, election day trickery is almost as old as our country itself. I've been reading American history all year, and it is downright astonishing to read of the dirty tricks of the past. I guess what shocked me the most was learning that the secret ballot is a fairly modern invention (they called it the "Australian ballot" when it was introduced in the later parts of the 19th century). People used to vote while being watched by their neighbors, bosses, friends, or anyone else who wanted to see which way you chose. Riots and street brawls often broke out on election day, between battling factions.
My favorite story (although, admittedly, I haven't even gotten up to the Tammany Hall machine politics era when the real hinky stuff began) is from very early on. I'd have to look it up, but I believe this was the 1820s or earlier. The polling places would open only for a few hours, perhaps in the morning (things weren't coordinated back then, so polling places had rather random schedules). A whole wave of, say, Antifederalists would flock into the polling location very early and take up all the available space. They would then proceed to take hours very slowly marking their ballots. When the polling place closed, that was it -- nobody waiting in line got to vote after then. So just by warming all the chairs for endless hours, one side could effectively block the other from casting any votes. Across town, the Federalists would be doing the same thing at another polling location.
Election cheating is as old as the Republic, to put it another way. I'm not trying to make some overarching point here, and am not trying to draw any parallels to anything which may be happening today, either. I'm really just killing time on the keyboard here until my lovely wife returns so we can go cast our ballots, and spinning a yarn or two which flitted through my brain. I'll be checking the comments here tonight, so this is really more of what some blogs call an "open thread" for election night than anything else.
So have fun voting, everyone -- we certainly will! It's your most important privilege and duty as a citizen, so treat it as the treasure it truly is. In my eyes, anyone who doesn't vote also doesn't get to complain about the results afterwards. But I'm pretty confident that almost all of you reading this will indeed vote today -- and the only ones who won't are our foreign readers (who get their own elections to have fun with). This year, my wife has successfully completed her journey to American citizenship and will be voting for the country's leader for the first time. Try to remember what you felt like, as a teenager, the first time you cast your ballot -- that's the way she's feeling today.
-- Chris Weigant
Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant
VT for Obama; KY, IN for Romney. No surprises yet...
-CW
So far, so good.
Mitt picks up WV... still no surprise...
Whole bunch of states called, still no big news yet...
I didna know we had a new commentary.. Lemme paste:
Michale wrote:
Barack Obama 3 EV
Mitt Romney 33 EV
Woot!!!!! :D
Michale.....
[ Permalink ] [ Tuesday, November 6th, 2012 at 17:47 PST ]
[43]
Michale wrote:
With 1% of the vote counted in Ohio, Romney votes nearly doubles Obama votes
[ Permalink ] [ Tuesday, November 6th, 2012 at 17:50 PST ]
[44]
Michale wrote:
Romney still has the edge in the POP vote..
Apologies to dsws.. Looks like the POP vote *IS* going to be close... :D
Michale.....
[ Permalink ] [ Tuesday, November 6th, 2012 at 17:52 PST ]
[45]
Michale wrote:
http://washington.cbslocal.com/2012/11/06/obama-i-have-a-concession-speech-ready/
Looks like Obama is not as confident as ya'all are... :D
Michale....
[ Permalink ] [ Tuesday, November 6th, 2012 at 17:53 PST ]
[46]
Michale wrote:
It's gonna hit the fan in about 5 minutes.. :D
Michale.....
[ Permalink ] [ Tuesday, November 6th, 2012 at 17:55 PST ]
[47]
Michale wrote:
Romney just took GA...
Obama 3 EV
Romney 49 EV
If anyone wants to change their story, now would be a good time... :D
Michale.....
[ Permalink ] [ Tuesday, November 6th, 2012 at 17:56 PST ]
[48]
Michale wrote:
GOP beating DEM in both HOUSE and SENATE numbers as well...
I was thinking about hittin' the sack as I have to be up at 0300 EDT...
But this is too good a show to pass up.. :D
Michale....
[ Permalink ] [ Tuesday, November 6th, 2012 at 17:58 PST ]
[49]
Michale wrote:
George Allen is beating Tom... er... TIM Kaine...
THAT'S gotta hurt.. :D
Michale.....
[ Permalink ] [ Tuesday, November 6th, 2012 at 18:03 PST ]
[50]
Michale wrote:
Looks like OBAMA just picked up a bunch...
Obama 79
Romney 71
[ Permalink ] [ Tuesday, November 6th, 2012 at 18:04 PST ]
[51]
Michale wrote:
Romney increasing his lead in the POP vote...
Which, I know, means absolutely NOTHING... :D
Michale.....
[ Permalink ] [ Tuesday, November 6th, 2012 at 18:05 PST ]
[52]
Michale wrote:
Obama won Indiana in 2008..
It's completely Romney now...
[ Permalink ] [ Tuesday, November 6th, 2012 at 18:08 PST ]
[53]
Michale wrote:
Romney's increasing his POP vote total..
MS and AL went Romney
[ Permalink ] [ Tuesday, November 6th, 2012 at 18:10 PST ]
[54]
Michale wrote:
Romney is decimating Obama in VA...
[ Permalink ] [ Tuesday, November 6th, 2012 at 18:11 PST ]
[55]
Michale wrote:
Romney is killing Obama in TN, but looks like Obama might take NC
[ Permalink ] [ Tuesday, November 6th, 2012 at 18:13 PST ]
[56]
Michale wrote:
Romney just pulled ahead in FL....
Looks like FL is a Romney state... I called that one.. :D
Romney is further padding his POP Vote lead....
Romney just pulled ahead in NC
Romney 82 EV
Obama 79 EV
Romney is extending his FL lead...
Akin is slapping down McCaskill..
Another one that's gotta hurt..
And it was soooooooo nice 'n quiet 'n peaceful around here ... electoral bliss, you might say ...
Nice of you to join us, Michale!
Romney is killing in Missouri
Looks like Romney is going to take NC
Polls close in PA...
Romney 61%
Obama 36%
Romney just took Arkansas...
Obame 78 EV
Romney 88 EV
Nice of you to join us, Michale!
Dunnow how much longer I can hang on.. I took some Ambien a bit ago and it's kicking in.... :D
Will hang as long as I can...
Romney is destroying Obama in the POP vote....
Stay as long as you are able ... to withstand an Obama re-election victory.
Oh, and, pleasant dreams.
Hehehehehehehehehehehehehe!
I think Camp Romney can write off OHIO
I don't care about the POP vote.
That's not how you choose your presidents, is it?
I think Camp Romney can write off OHIO
Ha! You better believe it!
That's not how you choose your presidents, is it?
True... I only mention it for the irony factor...
After the 2000 election, the Left swore by the POP vote..
Many people here in Weigantia also swore by the POP vote...
Of course, they'll change their tune now.. :D
Michale....
OBAMA hasn't been ahead in the EV race yet....
Romney ahead by 10K in NC with 54% reporting
Romney can have NC. See how generous I am. :)
I tell you what ... Romney can have Virginia, too!
Like ya have a choice :D hehehehehehe
It's looking bad for Obama....
Yeah. It's looking soooooo bad. Shall I make yours a double, Michale?
Yea, it looks like Romney will take VA
Obama has yet to lead in the EC vote :D
You're so impatient, Michale. Give Obama a little more time - he'll win the EV race, eventually. :)
I am gonna try and stay awake until they call FL
FL is a tossup, but the only counties not reporting are panhandle counties and they are solid Romney
michale,
i'm guessing your per-message donation has started?
:)
Are you sure? 'Cause Obama will probably have this thing all wrapped up before Florida is officially called. :)
Time will tell... Lotsa polls closing at 2100 EDT
nypoet22 -
michale,
i'm guessing your per-message donation has started?
BWAH hah hah! Now that was funny!
-CW
Now a musical interlude... :D
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V0O0nzkESTI
Back this hitch up into the water
Untie all the cables and rope
Step onto the astro turf
Get yourself a coozie
Let's go
Who said anything about skiin'?
Floatin' is all I wanna do
You can climb the ladder
Just don't rock the boat while I barbeque
[Chorus:]
On the pontoon
Makin' waves and catchin' rays up on the roof
Jumpin' out the back, don't act like you don't want to
Party in slow motion
Out here in the open
Mmmmmmm...motorboatin'
(Hoo hoo hoo)
Reach your hand down into the cooler
Don't drink it if the mountains aren't blue
Try to keep it steady as you recline on your black inner tube
[Chorus:]
Pontoon
Makin' waves and catchin' rays up on the roof
Jumpin' out the back, don't act like you don't want to
Party in slow motion
Out here in the open
Mmmmmm...motorboatin'
(Hoo hoo hoo)
(Hoo hoo hoo)
[Bridge:]
5 mile an hour with aluminum side
Wood panelin' with a water slide
Can't beat the heat, so let's take a ride
[Chorus:]
On the pontoon
Makin' waves and catchin' rays up on the roof
Jumpin' out the back, don't act like you don't want to
Party in slow motion
I'm out here in the open
Mmmmmmm...motorboatin'
On the pontoon
(Hoo hoo hoo)
On the pontoon
(Hoo hoo hoo)
Back this hitch out into the water
On the pontoon
(Hoo hoo hoo)
(Hoo hoo hoo)
Joshua,
michale,
i'm guessing your per-message donation has started?
Nope.. Just practicin by doing the play-by-play announcing...
How do you think FL will go?? Obama is barely ahead and the only outstanding counties are Panhandle Counties...
Romney still decimating in the POP vote
2 Minutes..
Get yer game faces on.. :D
Holy crap, the EV map just went red!!!!
Obama 123
Romney 154
I'm amazed at how close NC is... thought Romney had a bigger lead here...
-CW
Michale -
Don't forget, the West Coast is solid blue, and we've got more EV than all those red states in the middle...
:-)
-CW
WOW Less than 1000 votes separate in FL
Don't forget, the West Coast is solid blue, and we've got more EV than all those red states in the middle...
Yea, I know...
But if Romney makes his chops as we travel west, it might not matter.. :D
Michale
Michigan goes blue... no surprise, at least to me.
-CW
Romney still killing in the POP vote
NC and VA going Romney
Romney barely in the lead in FL.. But the two counties left are solid RED
PA just got called for Obama.... Not looking good...
CBS just called PA for Obama.
The fat lady is warming up, in the wings...
:-)
-CW
Romney leading by less than 1000 in FL
OK I can't hang any longer.. Hopefully I will wake up to President Elect Romney....
Ni all
Obama up 10K in FL.
Looks like my rash prediction actually has a chance of coming true...
-CW
WI goes to Obama.
It's almost over...
-CW
Thank God!
Sherrod Brown takes Ohio ...
And Elizabeth Warren in Pennsylvania ...
And Obama up in Ohio ... looking good!
Just got back from voting. Woo hoo!
-CW
Hey Chris,
Will Prop 30 win tonight?
LizM -
I kinda doubt it. There were two battling props on the ballot, 30 and 38. The woman behind 38 financed a huge ad buy against 30, and the result is that both will probably fail. Which is a shame.
-CW
florida will be decided by less than a thousand votes.
nypoet22 -
Will that be during the first recount or the second?
Heh.
-CW
CW,
Will that be during the first recount or the second?
that depends on ohio
;p
~joshua
Now what happens when Romney wins the popular vote ...
:)
-David
Just watched Fox News call the whole shebang for Obama. Through gritted teeth...
-CW
So far I'm 46 for 46... five left to go, and only 3 of them are even in question.
Not bad, if I do say so, not bad...
:-)
-CW
It must be over if Fox called it.
Ohio!
-David
Not bad at all!
It was a very satisfying evening ...
Two things, here at the end.
(1) The MSM is obsessing about how Romney is ahead in the popular vote. I guess, 'cause they've got nothing better to talk about. But what none of them admit is that California IS STILL COUNTING. My guess is that Obama will gain a healthy pop vote from CA, but none of them even admit the possibility. Sheesh.
(2) I bet there'll be no recount, anywhere. Because it won't matter. WITHOUT any of the following: OH, FL, VA -- WITHOUT them, Obama's got 272 EV. So none of it matters, and recounts are a waste of everyone's time.
-CW
Marijuana seems to be doing well. Legalization is ahead in CO & WA and medical is passing in MA. Looks like a states rights fight coming up fought by liberals. How ironic.
Maybe Obama will support it now he has no further elections ahead of him.
Bashi -
One can only hope!
Romney not conceding yet. Didn't write a concession speech. Sounds like a sour loser to me...
-CW
Bashi -
One of the stations just said MJ legalization won in CO. No word on WA.
Gay marriage was approved in ME, too.
CA prop results trickling in...
-CW
MJ legalization looks to be going down hard in OR. Two out of three is not too bad...
Politico has it winning in WA 55% to 44% with 50% reporting.
CBS calls VA for Obama.
48 for 48.
And still Alaska to go, which is an easy pickup, really.
:-)
-CW
Romney concedes with a very nice speech, actually. Guess he had to write it quickly, since he didn't plan ahead.
Obama speech up next...
-CW
In honor of how LizM, I'm going to call Obama's second-term victory speech the "Happy Warrior" speech from this point on.
And with that... I'm done for the night. See you all tomorrow...
-CW
A couple of other big winners: Nate Silver and Sam Wang.
Randall Munroe texted Sam Wang: "BREAKING: Numbers continue to be best tool for determining which of two things is larger."
Good night for your prognostication, as well, Mr. Weigent.
LeaningBlue -
"This just in... science works!"
Heh. Couldn't resist...
:-)
-CW
Michale -
This morning, we have for your pleasure:
Corneille avec les ouefs
or, perhaps,
Cuervo con huevos.
Heh.
OK, I'll stop now.
:-)
-CW
Well, this is utterly depressing...
CW,
Naw, you've earned it.. It's gonna be a rough week ahead for me.. :^D
Michale
http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2012/11/07/president-obama-should-make-effort-to-compromise-with-republicans-in-second/
Makes sense to me...
Michale
Well, at least it's been established that Peer-Reviewed science sometimes could be dead wrong...
:D
That will help in future debates..
Michale.....
Gonna give ya'all a day to bask in your glory..
I'll start raining on your parade first thing tomorrow morning.. :D
Michale....
consider that everyone in America will have the chance to travel not-very-far and participate in an activity that is open to all citizens...
... except felons and children. If someone committed a felony at age 20, does it really make sense to still disenfranchise them at age 80? Especially when a whole lot of felonies are crimes at all only because of our insane drug laws.
... except felons and children. If someone committed a felony at age 20, does it really make sense to still disenfranchise them at age 80?
Most states have a process by which civil/voting rights can be restored to a felon...
Michale.....
Michale,
You won't be depressed for very long ... not if you care about an improving economy for all Americans; not if you care about meeting the debt and deficit challenges in a prudent and effective manner; not if you care about America moving forward in the world as a strong leader.
You may not see this now but, give it about four years or so (with any luck, it will only take two years, if you know what I mean and I'm sure that you do!) and you may be quite surprised to find yourself eager to change your political affiliation to DEMOCRAT!!!
Don't worry, though ... there'll still be things to debate. :)
Chris,
"The Happy Warrior Speech" has a very, very nice ring to it! :)
And, what about Prop 30!? You must be very pleasantly surprised. Congratulations to you and to all Californians who believe in moving FORWARD!!!
Wow the right-wing-nut-case media came crashing down to reality with a bang yesterday. All 3 gay marriage votes went the pro gay marriage way (4 if you include the Presidency).
CW, looks like Obama will just take Florida making both our predictions of 332 EV (a 62-38% Obama win correct). I'd like to say two things
THANK YOU AMERICA
To Americans who voted for sanity yesterday, the rest of the world appreciates it. Everyone I was watching with met the victory with a huge sigh and a sense of relief that America didn't un-do all the good work of the last 4 years and put the fragile economic recovery at stake.
THANK YOU FOX NEWS ET AL.
And a HUGE thank you to Fox News, Rush Limbaugh, Rasmussen, other lol-right pollsters, right-wing media and the entire right-wing echo chamber so far out of touch with reality. Thanks to all these people a wonderful, wonderful site called In-Trade was filled with similar reality-challenged people vastly over estimating the odds of a Romney victory, meaning anyone who wanted to could make a huge chunk of cash (just in the arbitrage between In-Trade and other sites alone, with $0 risk). I personally bet heavy on Obama and used the arbitrage to hedge my losses through other sites, so that if Romney won I would've net out at $0. THANK YOU!
PS. There is still a chance the Democratic Senate lead will be increased correct? I'm not sure but the 2 Indies caucus with the Democrats so they are currently at 53? 2 more to come could put them at 55?!
Naw, you've earned it.. It's gonna be a rough week ahead for me.. :^D
Well played, Michale. It's only an election and you fought hard.
I'm just not sure the folks you're fighting for even know what they're fighting for anymore.
If you ever want to come fight against corruption or a capitalism that works better, come join us!
Even if it's just a single issue. No joke that I'd be honored to fight with you.
Respect & beer,
-David
BTW, here's also to hoping that conservatives recognize this loss of ideas in their party and look to become something other than xenophobic fear mongers.
Why? Because they used to have good ideas and I'd like to see that Republican party again.
My guess is that it won't happen but it would be nice ...
http://www.npr.org/blogs/itsallpolitics/2012/11/07/164567090/republican-response-likely-to-be-tactical-not-transformative?utm_source=NPR&utm_medium=facebook&utm_campaign=20121107
-David
Sorry but I just read the comments on here and they are amazing! My favourite might be:
Akin is slapping down McCaskill..
Another one that's gotta hurt..
:)
On the Senate topic, best result of the night (aside from the likely fact Democrats will extend their lead) has to be the absolute pasting Scott Brown took.
The guy who bought the domain http://natesilveriswrong.com/ is probably wanting his money back now...
Fwiw Florida is Obama's. I found out why. The only ballots left to be counted in Florida are from Miami-Dade which Obama is leading 62-37. It's in the bag! If you don't agree, In-Trade will give you 1.5% on Romney winning Florida ;)
LOL http://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/math.png
Most states have a process by which civil/voting rights can be restored to a felon.
True and worth mentioning. But that still leaves a bunch that don't. I don't remember the numbers.
Karl Rove disagreeing when Fox called the election for Obama. Amazing. Even when reality comes knocking they still can't see it!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=x8yXRiv3lGI
Most states have a process by which civil/voting rights can be restored to a felon.
True and worth mentioning. But that still leaves a bunch that don't. I don't remember the numbers.
If Americans have learned anything from this election (and 2000) it is that elections need to be federally regulated and controlled. Republican Governors have shown time and time and time again they are too childish to be left in charge of controlling voting...
David,
If you ever want to come fight against corruption or a capitalism that works better, come join us!
When you start fighting against ALL politicians, you KNOW I'll be there... :D
Respect & beer,
Now that's just schweet... :D
dsws,
True and worth mentioning. But that still leaves a bunch that don't. I don't remember the numbers.
To be honest, I would be very surprised if there was a state that DIDN'T have this option..
Michale
'I Want To Congratulate The President,' Romney Says In 240,000th And Final Lie Of Campaign
:)
http://www.theonion.com/articles/i-want-to-congratulate-the-president-romney-says-i,30283/?ref=auto
When you start fighting against ALL politicians, you KNOW I'll be there... :D
Heheh. I'm not against all government. I'm just against bad government.
It's a balance. If I thought there were too much government, I'd be against it, but it seems rather the reverse.
Concentration of power is the issue to me. It can be concentrated too much w/ certain large corporations (think 'too big to fail' or any type of monopoly). It just happens to be one of the things government is needed for.
-David
Just wanted to chime in that I am doing my best Snoopy happy dance this morning!
Thanks to all these people a wonderful, wonderful site called In-Trade was filled with similar reality-challenged people vastly over estimating the odds of a Romney victory, meaning anyone who wanted to could make a huge chunk of cash (just in the arbitrage between In-Trade and other sites alone, with $0 risk).
Brilliant!
It's a balance. If I thought there were too much government, I'd be against it, but it seems rather the reverse.
That's where we differ.
You seem to think more government is the answer..
I feel that more government is the problem..
Michale
Ya can't make this stuff up.
A redstate blogger, pining for the 400+ electoral win of Harding over Wilson:
Obamanites will realize one day how much of a bozo their Saviour is, and hopefully in 2016, we’ll have our own Warren Harding.
Anyone catch Trump's tweets? Down with the electoral college and a call for revolution. This was before California was counted and Mitt was ahead in the popular vote. Still, someone should stopped him from drinking and tweeting...
You seem to think more government is the answer.
Not at all. I think the right mix of government/private sector is the answer.
There's some things government does well, some things the private sector does well.
For example, the private banking sector does not do a good job regulating themselves. Government doesn't do a particularly good job setting prices.
Let's figure out what each does best and go from there.
-David
meaning anyone who wanted to could make a huge chunk of cash (just in the arbitrage between In-Trade and other sites alone, with $0 risk).
Anyone whose financial institution would fund their InTrade account, that is. ;-)
There used to be a subscription site (maybe still is; I've lost the link) which scanned all the on-line betting sites worldwide and found arbitrages. They'd find things like British football, Indian cricket, and, I assume, Canadian Profession Curling (made that up). Something like a 5% return. Not per annum: per arb.
I took the offer of a free three day subscription, and spent a fun weekend with an Excel spreadsheet, and the online sports sections of the old Empire's newpapers. It was fun.
Anyone catch Trump's tweets?
Oh yes! A night of classic cognitive dissonance. At least with our old friend Karl, we can generate a plausible conspiracy theory along the lines of the Duke brothers in Trading Places ("Get those brokers back in here; turn those machines back on!"). That is, he might have been sure they fix was still in, and we just had to wait for it.
Trump, on the other hand, was just a clown.
You seem to think more government is the answer..
I feel that more government is the problem..
More or less is not the real problem.
Rather, it's the lack of leaders anywhere in the political spectrum who remember that government is supposed to promote the general Welfare, and secure the Blessings of Liberty, and spend money as though it were their own, and they were doing that as though it were for their own family.
I know, that's a foolish dream.
Montana Senate just called for Democrats, meaning that they have now expanded their lead in the Senate by 1, with 1 vote to come.
I guess I missed the Tea Party in my list of people to thank for these sort of results, although they were included in the 'reality challenged' people.
Could someone post some Donald Trump tweets for my amusement and enjoyment? :)
One more thing, and then I have to run. It's not just the Republican party that is facing a demographics-related cliff.
The Democrat machines are at risk, as well. Those of the neo-liberal "public private partnership" ilk, which enriches those on both sides of that partnership at the expense of the common good, will not as easily get their slam dunk boondoggles.
Those for whom invasive nannyism is all right because they (and the lobbyists from whom they take their money and their tips) Know Best will have to compete with direct electoral matters which are beyond their control.
It's small stuff, local stuff. But stuff with more than just local significance, because the organization and the electoral composition is not confined to Colorado. Read at: http://www.salon.com/2012/11/07/progressives_win_big_in_colorado/
LB,
I took the offer of a free three day subscription, and spent a fun weekend with an Excel spreadsheet, and the online sports sections of the old Empire's newpapers. It was fun
The problem is where sites are in $ and some in GBP. They set it up with awful FX rates so you lose a lot on the rate...
But yeh the arbitrage on the election was unreal, In-Trade was a lunacy market. At one point In-Trade had Romney at 33% and he was LITERALLY half this at 16% on UK sites. So you could bet Obama on In-Trade, Romney on the other sites and bank the 16% return. Insane!
Rather, it's the lack of leaders anywhere in the political spectrum who remember that government is supposed to promote the general Welfare, and secure the Blessings of Liberty, and spend money as though it were their own, and they were doing that as though it were for their own family.
Ding, Ding, Ding....
WE HAVE A WINNER!!!
North Dakota Senate just called for Democrats. Democrats gained TWO seats in the Senate this means, for a 55-45 majority. Who would've predicted that a few months back??
I actually agree with Trump it will be a disgrace for democracy if Republicans end up with a large House majority despite losing the popular House vote (tbd) because they re-districted it to make it harder for Democrats to win. Another win for Republicans at the expense of Democracy.
This might be my favourite image of the day, being someone who has followed polls and models tracking the election for weeks now.
http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2012/11/pundit_scorecard_checking_pundits_predictions_against_the_actual_results.html?wpisrc=most_viral
This might be my favourite image of the day, being someone who has followed polls and models tracking the election for weeks now.
Outstanding infographic.
The other big loser of the day was Gallup ...
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/20/us/politics/in-national-polling-its-gallup-vs-the-rest.html?_r=1&
-David
David,
Yeh but Gallup didn't do State polls. It's a shame that Sandy gave Gallup an excuse from their lololol +5-7% tracking poll they had running a couple of weeks back.
Rasmussen (the 'most accurate pollster' according to the right LOL) had their 2012 FINAL POLLS saying Romney was ahead/tied:
- Colorado (+3, actual result -4)
- Iowa (+1, actual result -6)
- Wisconsin (tied, actual -7)
- Ohio (tied, actual -2 and counting)
- Florida (+2, actual -1)
- Virginia (+2, actual -3)
But anyone who follows things knew they weren't the 'most accurate pollster' the right claimed. Their national result in 2008 was close, sure, but their State polls (which is what really matters) were -4.6% to Obama on average in 2008. Looks like they may have topped this inaccuracy even more in 2012!
Of course, this is all part of the large dose of reality that smacked the right in the face yesterday. It will probably be forgotten in a little while and Rasmussen will return to being the 'most accurate pollster' because... well because reality and facts don't matter to them! Facts can be disgarded again in the future when they don't like them...
Nice graph of Rasmussen results: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/files/2012/11/rasmussen_fail.jpg
Compare these 6 polls to PPP, laughed at and (also laughingly) with a (D) beside their name on RCP (which was founded by Conservatives btw):
- Colorado (+6, actual result +4)
- Iowa (+2, actual result +6)
- Wisconsin (+3 actual +7)
- Ohio (+5, actual +2 and counting)
- Florida (+1, actual +1)
- Virginia (+4, actual +4)
I remember reading the twitter reaction when PPP published their Colorado and Virginia polls. People were going crazy! 'No way Obama wins Colorado/Virginia that easy/you're biased/you're going to be a laughing stock'!
Oh and let's not forget Nationally I guess:
Rasmussen: Romney +1 (actual -2)
PPP: Obama +2 (actual +2)
Btw Massachusetts is the only State that gave Obama almost exactly the same lead as he had in 2008. All other States he was doen on his 2008 lead. Given this was his opponents home State, that tells you everything you need to know about his opponent who shall hereafter be referred to as 'that 47% guy who ran against Obama in 2012' ;)
To be honest, I would be very surprised if there was a state that DIDN'T have this option..
It's not as bad as I thought. It sounds like only Virginia has life-long disenfranchisement with no way for the felon to do anything about it. Florida and Kentucky also have fairly extreme felony disenfranchisement laws.
It's not as bad as I thought. It sounds like only Virginia has life-long disenfranchisement with no way for the felon to do anything about it. Florida and Kentucky also have fairly extreme felony disenfranchisement laws.
There's a very easy way to avoid this...
Don't commit a felony.. :D
Michale...