Obama's Election Bounce
I know I normally do this at the beginning of every month, but since it's Tuesday and since it will be an abbreviated week anyway (I may re-run columns on Thursday and Friday, just to warn everyone in advance), I thought I'd just point out something President Obama will doubtless be thankful for come Turkey Day -- his job approval ratings are up. Way up, in fact.
This should come as no real surprise, since almost every incumbent president gets such a bump from a successful re-election effort. But it certainly is notable for Obama, who has struggled since the beginning of 2010 to gain a positive job approval rating from over half the country.
Barack Obama enjoyed a longer "honeymoon" period with the American public than some presidents, with his approval rating starting at a very high 65 percent at the beginning of his first term. His numbers then stayed above the 50 percent mark all throughout 2009, until approximately Thanksgiving. Once his job approval sank below the halfway point, Obama has only managed to get them back above 50 on two separate occasions. The first time was in the spring of 2011, right after the lame duck Congress (the 2009-2010 Congress) actually forged an agreement on all sorts of things at the very end of its term, in December of 2010.
Right around when Obama gave his State of the Union speech in 2011, his job approval briefly spiked up over 50, hitting 51.0 percent at its apex. But as the 2010 Congress got to work, Obama's approval slid back down to the 45 percent range within months.
This is where Obama's second 50-plus spike occurred, when the death of Osama Bin Laden was announced to the world. By the end of May, Obama's daily average approval rating hit 52.6 -- the highest he's seen since his "honeymoon" was over. This bump didn't last, either. Within a few months, Obama hit the lowest point he has so far charted, dropping down below 43 percent approval towards the end of 2011.
That's pretty low, right at the beginning of an election year. The rule of thumb for presidential approval ratings is that presidents running above 50 percent get elected, presidents below 45 percent do not, and presidents in the danger zone in between are on awfully shaky ground.
But since this nadir, Obama steadily climbed back. For all of 2012, Obama fluctuated in the 46-49 percent range. Until the Democratic National Convention, which gave Obama the boost he needed. Obama got a convention bounce and Mitt Romney didn't, to put it simply. Even more importantly, Obama's convention bounce lasted, instead of melting away. But even it almost wasn't enough. From the convention on, Obama stayed largely between 49 and 50 percent, but never quite managed to get over 50.0 percent. Until Election Day, when he finally charted 50.1 percent. It sounds like a cheesy Hollywood plot line, but it's the truth -- other than the two bumps in early 2011, Obama only climbed above 50.0 percent on the day he got re-elected, and even then by the thinnest of margins.
Since then, however, Obama has been enjoying a mini "second honeymoon" with the public. His daily job approval average has climbed above 51.0 percent, and today stands at 51.3 -- the highest number (not related to Bin Laden) he's charted since 2009. This rolling daily average could be headed even higher, as pre-election polls drop off from the consolidated data (RealClearPolitics.com uses roughly two weeks' worth of polls in their average, but there are currently four polls out of the six being aggregated that were taken before the election). Gallup's daily job approval number now stands at 53 percent. Rasmussen has Obama at a whopping 55 percent approval today.
Of course, this could all not mean very much. Perhaps Obama's post-election bounce will fade away as quickly as the public's approval of the Bin Laden killing. We're heading into a very contentious few weeks after Thanksgiving with Congress, as the fiscal cliff negotiations begin in earnest.
But I bet Barack Obama will be giving thanks this week that he'll be heading in to these negotiations with more people than actually voted for him approving of the job he's doing. If his numbers jump up to 53-54 percent in early December, he will have a lot more "political captial" to bring to bear when struggling with House Republicans. Which could impact the negotiations in significant ways.
-- Chris Weigant
Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant
I haven't forgotten our semi-official wager..
Starting at 0000hrs tonight, I will begin numbering my posts and comments.
I will donate $1 for each post I make between 0000hrs 22 Nov 2012 and 0000hrs 2 Jan 2013.
And may the gods have mercy on your souls!! :D
" Bones! Buckle up! "
-James T Kirk, STAR TREK 90210
:D
Michale.....
All things being equal, I'd prefer Obama's national approval to go up, but politics is still largely local.
So,
1) How many Republicans are retiring this year, and willing or eager to get on the right side of history and compromise?
2) How many represent genuinely competitive districts or states, where compromise is simply a smart political move for the next general election.
3) How many live in districts with a well organized Tea Party base, which can engineer a credible primary change, given a bit of outside help with money and media, trumping (2).
4) Are out of state big pocket donors still willing to part with cash after the 2010 experience of fielding weak tea which went on to lose in the general election?
I suspect all of the above are shifting in the Dems favor, and that changes in popular opinion are actually lagging indicators of how smart Republican operators adjust to the situation, and how adjustment in turn affects how they talk to the news media. Rabble rousing seems much reduced in the GOP and this trend may even work it's way into Fox and AM radio.
1) How many Republicans are retiring this year, and willing or eager to get on the right side of history and compromise?
This, of course, assumes that DEMOCRATS are "on the right side of history"..
A VERY large leap of faith, considering how bad they have done the last 4 years...
Michale.....
Michael, I take your point, but:
nobody really knows what the right side of history will be (there will be more than one, once the articles, books and movies trickle out over the decades) but politicians will make their best guess in the here and now and move forward. This could be called political relativity.
Michael, I take your point, but:
nobody really knows what the right side of history will be (there will be more than one, once the articles, books and movies trickle out over the decades) but politicians will make their best guess in the here and now and move forward. This could be called political relativity.
Agreed.
I was just pointing out, as David and I agreed to in the previous commentary, that not EVERYTHING Democrats want to do is automagically good..
Just as not EVERYTHING Republicans want to do is automagically bad..
That's what's so great about being a registered NPA...
I feel no obligation to go Right just because the Republicans SAY it's right...
Just as I feel no obligation to go Left just because the Democrats say it's left... er... correct..
Michale.....
How many represent genuinely competitive districts or states, where compromise is simply a smart political move for the next general election.
Zero. The next general election is an off-year election. Low-turnout. Featuring the base, not even all the base, and nothing but the base. Compromise is for legislators from safe districts, starting about a year from now.
I suspect all of the above are shifting in the Dems favor
So do I. Last time was The Shellacking. This time we're just in for a shellacking.
Michale,
Please take pity on the rest of the poor Wiegantians like me.
Thanking you in advance.
Seriously!
$1 per post!? Did you up that wager in place of no inflation? Heh.
LizM and Michale -
Oh, dang, I gotta get the kittens ready, don't I?
Heh.
-CW
Don't worry, Liz.
Things are tight this year, so I might have to be frugal...
But don't worry CW.. Ya know what a problem I have keeping my mouth shut.. Or, in this case, my fingers.. :D
Michale
001
Michale,
You will have to give your 007 comment special consideration ... in view of the 50th anniversary of all things Bond on the big screen, you know. :)
Chris,
Those irresistible kittens get me all the time! :)
I think this approval rating bounce is a 'reality bounce' across America.
During election time people become more partisan and this election is probably one of the most partisan ever seen, with Republicans predicting the end of the world as we know it should the evil overlord Obama be re-elected.
I'd imagine a lot of people have awoken to reality in the past few weeks and seen this nonsense for what it is. The right-wing media are victims of their own delusion in this sense: they attempted to convince people into thinking a 47%-guy landslide was imminent and lost their credibility in doing so.
This means a lot of people are only just realising that Obama isn't the evil overlord the right-wing media made him out to believe. That he is actually quite popular across the country, his policies 'aren't so bad' - in fact are very popular and maybe, perhaps he didn't walk into Libya and shoot the ambassador himself as the right-wing echo chamber practically said in their exaggerated attempts to make this an election issue...