Poll Watch Preliminary Teaser
The sharper-eyed among you may have noticed that yesterday was supposed to be Obama Poll Watch day, where we offer up our monthly musings on the state of Barack Obama's public job approval rating. Well, since yesterday was a rather auspicious date on the calendar, we decided to push the poll-watching to Wednesday. Also, because we're still working on the charts.
By tomorrow, we'll have (hopefully) updated the site with current presidential comparison charts. This is a much bigger task than the normal monthly update, because we are going back and converting all previous presidents (back to Eisenhower) into single (two-term) charts, no matter how long they served. This will make comparisons with Obama much simpler to see, and the end product will hopefully justify the delay this month.
But the first such comparison chart seemed interesting enough to post today, as a preliminary look at tomorrow's much more in-depth column. Because Obama fans will note (with the appropriate horror) how closely Obama's current numbers are to George W. Bush's. Now, this isn't any sort of guarantee of future performance, since Obama has tracked (over the course of his presidency) approval ratings with many other modern presidents, which we've always been careful to note here. So we're not going to take a lot of time today to delve into the phenomenon in any way, but thought we'd at least toss out some interesting charts as we work on getting the rest of them in order for tomorrow.
First, here's a slight continuation of a chart created at the end of the 2012 election season. At the time, I had been using this chart to note how close Obama and Bush were in approval throughout the campaign. Since then, Obama got much more of a second-term "honeymoon bounce" in the polls, but now this has come right back down to matching up with the Bush trendline once again:
[Click on graph to see larger-scale version.]
That's disturbing enough, for Obama supporters, but the truly disturbing chart is the bigger one, which shows where Bush's trend headed from here. Now, as a caveat, Bush was in the midst of a ever-more-unpopular war at the time, which dragged his numbers down throughout his entire second term. Barack Obama doesn't really have the same sort of "anchor" with the public, unless you believe that mass hysteria is going to ensue when Obamacare is fully implemented over the next year or so. But still, this is a pretty sobering chart:
[Click on graph to see larger-scale version.]
As mentioned, we'll get into what (if anything) this all means tomorrow. For George W. Bush, this month was truly the turning point of his entire presidency, as his poll numbers had just entered a dive from which he was never to recover. After managing to get re-elected, Bush's approval never once approached 50 percent again for the remainder of his second term, and wound up hitting all-time lows in the history of presidential polling, down in the dismal 20s. Personally, I just don't see the same trajectory for Obama. Which, as I said, I'll explain tomorrow.
This is admittedly a poor excuse for a column, but the chart work is proving to be much more time-consuming than originally thought, so consider it just a preliminary look at tomorrow's Obama Poll Watch column, for now, like one of those news "teasers" they run for the teevee news ("Murder! Mayhem! Products in your home which can kill you!! Details at eleven...").
Much more tomorrow. For now, it's back to wrestling with Excel until the new charts are all done....
-- Chris Weigant
Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant
love the new format, looking forward to reading your interpretation. my sense of obama is that he is (at least poll-wise) the most consistently average rated president in recent history. in spite of all the passion and/or vitriol coming from both sides, my conjecture is that on this point the public may well be right.
~joshua
As of yesterday, Obama's numbers are officially, underwater, according to RCP.
As I see it, Obama's numbers will closely mirror Bush's numbers, but for different reasons.
Bush was actually a LEADER and did unpopular things for the good of the country, politics be damned..
Obama is clearly in it for himself and himself only, country be damned. The evidence on this is plentiful and it comes from the Right **AND** the Left... While Obama has absolutely no problem putting Party before Country, it's also very clear that Obama will put Obama before Party...
That's why Obama's numbers will continue to fall. My prediction that Obama's numbers will fall and fall fast came true. This new prediction will also be as accurate..
Michale
unless you believe that mass hysteria is going to ensue when Obamacare is fully implemented over the next year or so.
But is it really hysteria???
"Forty years ago, when I began practicing primary care medicine, medical decision-making and its funding were in the hands of patients and their physicians. The only protection patients had lay in the professional ethics of their doctors. In modern terms that sounds pretty skimpy, but think about it for a minute. The first precept was 'Do no harm'. Ask yourself: can you hold your government to that standard?
"The underlying principle was that the physician had to put his patients' interests ahead of his own. This was, of course, the Golden Rule, formalized into standards for professional care. It was also the reason I, and many in my class, applied to medical school. It was the reason my wife's older brother, who practiced medicine in a small town in West Texas, prided himself on the fact that much of the time he 'was paid in peas and pies'. Again, ask yourself, is there any health insurance company or government agency that you can count upon to put your health above their interests?
"The decades have rolled by, and the sea-changes have come. Costs have risen, and personalized care has faded. The monstrosity has been birthed, and soon you will look in vain if you are seeking a personal physician who knows you, cares about you, and to whom you have ready access. You will find only systems, ready to suck you up, give you a number, and provide you with federally approved accountable care in a sterile environment populated by highly regulated strangers. And it will cost you a lot! (Whatever anyone says, prepare for a future where your health costs will be higher and your choices fewer!)
"I am in my mid-70s and have both the capacity and willingness to care for patients for another decade. But I am retiring. I cannot stand it anymore. More than half of my time in the office is spent filling out forms, writing letters, responding to inquiries, and attending to 'urgent' matters that did not exist 10 years ago. And every year my income is less. At this point I would rather be paid nothing and have the freedom to decide what is right for my patients. ACA is only another straw, but for this tired camel, it will break my back."
-Dr John Curry, Fairfax VA
There is also the FACT that Insurance costs are going to rise sharply once ObamaCare is implemented. This FACT comes from none other than Obama's HHS Secretary...
Over 60% of doctors will be retiring because of ObamaCare. The doctors that remain will scale back or eliminate their Medicaid/Medicare participation.
So, let's put partisan politics aside and address the FACTS.
Is it REALLY "hysteria"??
Or a sobering acknowledgment that ObamaCare is not the savior of health care ya'all are touting it as...
I'm just sayin'...
Michale
Bush was actually a LEADER and did unpopular things for the good of the country, politics be damned..
i assume you're talking about his administration's commitment to torture and data-mining, not his responses to katrina, the 2000 budget surplus, "mission accomplished" or iraq's complete lack of WMD's (much less any connection whatsoever to 9/11). irrespective of obama's limitations as a leader, anyone who calls bush's presidency a study in leadership might want to check their breakfast for hallucinogens.
~joshua
i assume you're talking about his administration's commitment to torture and data-mining,
Abso-tively and posi-loutly..
As we see by Obama's actions, those policies ARE effective and DO produce actionable intel..
not his responses to katrina,
As we saw with Sandy, response to natural disasters are best left to STATE authorities.
Apparently, though, it's only REPUBLICAN State authorities that have the competence to respond properly to natural disasters..
irrespective of obama's limitations as a leader, anyone who calls bush's presidency a study in leadership might want to check their breakfast for hallucinogens.
Du auch.. :D
As history shows, Bush made some very unpopular decisions that showed in his low poll numbers.
In the here and now, Obama has proven beyond ANY doubt that those decisions were the RIGHT decisions to make.
Make unpopular decisions for the good of the country?
The very definition of good leadership...
Michale
Make unpopular decisions for the good of the country?
Like the Affordable Care Act?
Interesting that you still think Bush did "good" for the country. To me, it looks like there wasn't much country left after his 8 years in office.
But I guess if you care more about torture and data mining than the economy ...
-David
Like the Affordable Care Act?
Good of the country??
See comment number #3...
Interesting that you still think Bush did "good" for the country. To me, it looks like there wasn't much country left after his 8 years in office.
Really??
How bad would it have been under a President Gore where we would have just taken Al Qaeda to court over 9/11..
Or under a President Kerry where we would have totally and utterly decimated our economy to pursue the myth of Human Caused Global Warming (Yet The Planet Us Cooling)??
All things being equal, we made out quite well considering the Democrat alternatives given us..
But I guess if you care more about torture and data mining than the economy ...
Abso-frakin'-loutly...
Because an economy doesn't mean diddley squat if yer dead...
Wouldn't you agree??
Obama has proven beyond ANY doubt that torture and data mining saves American lives...
But hay.. If ya have a problem with them, take it up with Obama, not me.. :D
Michale
Like the Affordable Care Act?
Good of the country??
Do you know how I know that ObamaCare is bad for the country??
Because ya'all are very intelligent people and ya'all were against it. Before you were for it. :D
Before it became the Obama/Democrat flagship legislation..
Michale
And, on a humorous note:
“And in a groundbreaking move, the Associated Press, the largest news gathering outlet in the world, will no longer use the term ‘illegal immigrant.’ That is out. No longer ‘illegal immigrant.’ They will now use the phrase ‘undocumented Democrat.’ That is the newest – ‘undocumented Democrat.’”
-Jay Leno
:D
Now THAT's funny!! :D
Michale
To me, it looks like there wasn't much country left after his 8 years in office.
I am also constrained to point out that Democrats share as much of the blame for the economy as Bush. It was their pushing and pushing to force banks to loan money to people who couldn't afford it that directly led to the implosion.
Apparently, Democrats are pursuing a course that is the very definition of insanity...
Obama administration pushes banks to make home loans to people with weaker credit
http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/obama-administration-pushes-banks-to-make-home-loans-to-people-with-weaker-credit/2013/04/02/a8b4370c-9aef-11e2-a941-a19bce7af755_story.html
Doing the same wrong thing over and over hoping for a different result.. :^/
Michale
Obama administration pushes banks to make home loans to people with weaker credit
http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/obama-administration-pushes-banks-to-make-home-loans-to-people-with-weaker-credit/2013/04/02/a8b4370c-9aef-11e2-a941-a19bce7af755_story.html
It's a shame we don't have any lesson from history that might indicate how this will turn out..
Oh wait.... :^/
Michale
Make unpopular decisions for the good of the country?
The very definition of good leadership...
... or an example of the proverbial broken clock or blind squirrel. from the air national guard to the texas rangers to abu ghraib to the first round of bailouts, there are too many examples of bush's abject failure to lead. based on bush's track record, any part he may have played in obama's foreign policy success is highly unlikely to be anything other than coincidence. there are many dimensions of leadership, and bush excels at very, very few.
perhaps bush's greatest contribution to any success obama may have garnered is that every other country in the world was thanking the stars for someone, anyone other than george w. bush.
~joshua
Because ya'all are very intelligent people and ya'all were against it. Before you were for it. :D
You mean like how conservatives were for it, before it was an Obama plan?
Here's my quick rankings of a few healthcare ideas:
1. Single payer
2. Public option
3. Romney/Obama plan
4. Do nothing
I'm for the ACA only because it's better than option 4, Do Nothing.
But yes, you're right. There were better plans.
-David
David,
You mean like how conservatives were for it, before it was an Obama plan?
Yes, EXACTLY like that.. :D
I'm for the ACA only because it's better than option 4, Do Nothing.
So, rising health care costs, longer wait times, a shortage of doctors and an increase in bureaucrat-in-charge health care is "better" than what we had??
On what planet?? :D
Joshua,
... or an example of the proverbial broken clock or blind squirrel. from the air national guard
Falsified documents.....
to the texas rangers
Com'on.. Baseball??? How important is that in the large scheme of things??
to abu ghraib
Nothing more than college hazing... Again,there were more important things than embarrassing a bunch of scumbag terrorists...
to the first round of bailouts,
Which Obama and the Democrats embraced with gusto.. If THAT is an example of "failed leadership", then Obama and the Democrats are TEN TIMES the failure that Bush ever was...
there are too many examples of bush's abject failure to lead.
But in the things that REALLY matter such as, oooohhh I dunno.. life and death..... Bush proved his leadership mettle beyond ANY question...
Seven years w/o a terrorist attack on US Proper, despite hundreds, if not THOUSANDS, of attempts..
Bush's leadership made that happen.. He could have taken the easy way and bowed to DEMOCRAT pressure to coddle terrorists and treat them with kid gloves only to see a 9/11 every other month..
But Bush said "politics be damned" and saved this country in spite of the near treasonous actions of the Democratic Party whose SOLE position was based on nothing but crass Party agenda and nothing more..
Let's be honest here and give credit where credit is due..
Michale
Speaking of credit where credit is due...
Com'on, guys!! #11 was REALLY funny... :D
Wish I could take the credit for it, but it's hilarious nonetheless... :D
Michale
Speaking of ObamaCare....
Let me try to understand this: The key incentive for small businesses to support Obamacare was that they would be able to shop for the best deals in health care super-stores—called exchanges. The Administration has had 3 years to set up these exchanges. It has failed to do so.
http://swampland.time.com/2013/04/02/obamacare-incompetence/
Seems to me that Obama and the Democrats were more concerned about just getting something... ANYTHING... on the books and didn't really care whether it would actually HELP anyone....
I believe it's fitting that this abomination will "proudly" wear the name OBAMACare...
Michale
Joshua -
Yeah, I like the new graphs too. I changed the colors a tiny bit, but now all the previous presidents' graphs have been updated. Check them out at ObamaPollWatch.com or go to today's article and there are links in the last paragraph....
I'm going to look closer into the "most consistent president ever" phenomenon next month, because I think you're on to something (had too much to do with the charts this time around to delve into the data).
Michale -
Now why did I just KNOW you'd enjoy this month's column?
But I warn you not to put too much of your Easter eggs into the "Obama will be as bad as Bush" basket, personally. I think Joshua's right -- I bet I will be forced to start looking at "detail charts" soon, because Obama will hover in the 45-50 percent range unless outside events prove to be either wildly positive or negative.
Joshua [4] -
Bush's presidency was a study in leadership. It's called "How The Vice President Led The Country While Dubya Was On Vacation." Heh.
David [13] -
Not to add that Republicans are still for "do nothing." In all the hyperventilating on the Right over Romneycare... whoops, I mean "Obamacare"... they've proposed exactly NOTHING to take its place. So much for being a party of ideas, eh?
Michale -
OK, the Leno bit was funny. I caught it last night. Happy?
:-)
[Note: new OPW column up, everyone! Check it out!]
-CW
But I warn you not to put too much of your Easter eggs into the "Obama will be as bad as Bush" basket, personally. I think Joshua's right -- I bet I will be forced to start looking at "detail charts" soon, because Obama will hover in the 45-50 percent range unless outside events prove to be either wildly positive or negative.
Fair enough.. However, if *I* am right, I am sure I can be indulged for an "I TOLD YA'ALL SO" now and again, eh? :D
You know me.. I am never one to rub ya'alls nose it..
"{{cough}}bullshit!{{cough}}"
-IceMan, TOP GUN
OK, the Leno bit was funny. I caught it last night. Happy?
"Ecstatic...."
-Jafar, ALADDIN
:D
Bush's presidency was a study in leadership. It's called "How The Vice President Led The Country While Dubya Was On Vacation." Heh.
So, you are saying that CHENEY deserves the credit and not Bush??
Well, OK.. If that's what ya think.... :D
Michale