Obama Poll Watch -- June, 2013
A big drop
Welcome back to our monthly review of President Obama's job approval polling numbers. This is going to be an abbreviated version of our normal column, because it got squeezed out of the Monday slot by the 150th anniversary of the Battle of Gettysburg, so apologies for this month's brevity in advance. June wasn't a particularly good month for Obama's numbers -- in fact it was a fairly bad month for him, as his numbers went "underwater" for the first time in his second term. Let's take a look at this month's chart:
[Click on graph to see larger-scale version.]
June, 2013
Last month, this column predicted that stormy days were ahead for Obama's poll numbers, and this indeed turned out to be the case. While there was news on the legal front all month long (beginning with Eric Holder throwing in the towel on the "Plan B" morning-after pill fight, and ending with some momentous Supreme Court decisions), it didn't do much for Obama in the polling, up or down.
But June was when the scandals and leaks all seemed to catch up to Obama in the polling. The Eric Snowden N.S.A. leak story dominated the news cycles all month long, and Obama couldn't do much more than seethe in frustration as Snowden led the media on a foreign adventure (or at least that's how it got reported).
While the public was busy digesting the major Supreme Court action on the Voting Rights Act and gay marriage, the immigration bill in the Senate managed a big victory with a final 68-32 vote. This story has so far not been getting a whole lot of attention by the mainstream media, but it will continue to be in the background all summer long (that's my guess, at any rate).
For the month, Obama's monthly job approval average fell to 46.5 percent, a drop of 1.8 points. His average disapproval reflected this movement, rising 1.6 points to finish at 48.5 percent. This ends the nine-month run Obama has had above water (when approval polling is better than disapproval), as he falls to 2.0 percent below the polling waves -- the first time he's been upside-down since August of 2012.
Overall Trends
The overall trends aren't particularly good for Obama fans. Obama did rally at the beginning of June, to spend three days above water, but the entire rest of the month was underwater territory. And his numbers seemed to be on a more-gradual downward trend towards the end of the month. Which means the safe money is on Obama's numbers slipping even more next month, although possibly bottoming out (the trendline is flattening, in other words).
In July, there are a few opportunities for Obama to improve his numbers. The first thing he could champion is getting the student loan rates back down -- Congress ignobly slunk out of town and missed a deadline, leading to a doubling of the interest rate charged. They can (and should) fix this retroactively, but Obama would do himself some good by publicly shaming Congress into action in the intervening time. The House may debate immigration bills throughout July, which Obama is not going to get in the middle of, so this may have a limited effect on the president's approval numbers. This month's unemployment number could help Obama out if it is positive, but then again that could go either way.
So, realistically, a good outcome in July would be if Obama stopped the slide in his numbers and flattened out the lines. If he can bottom out, and start bringing his numbers back up, that'll be about as good as he can expect next month (barring any unforeseen events). But, as I said, the safe bet is that Obama's numbers will go down a bit more next month before they have a chance to get better.
[Obama Poll Watch Data:]
Sources And Methodology
ObamaPollWatch.com is an admittedly amateur effort, but we do try to stay professional when it comes to revealing our sources and methodology. All our source data comes from RealClearPolitics.com; specifically from their daily presidential approval ratings "poll of polls" graphic page. We take their daily numbers, log them, and then average each month's data into a single number -- which is then shown on our monthly charts here (a "poll of polls of polls," if you will...). You can read a much-more detailed explanation of our source data and methodology on our "About Obama Poll Watch" page, if you're interested.
Questions or comments? Use the Email Chris page to drop me a private note.
Obama's Second Term Statistical Records
Monthly
Highest Monthly Approval -- 1/13 -- 52.7%
Lowest Monthly Approval -- 6/13 -- 46.5%
Highest Monthly Disapproval -- 6/13 -- 48.5%
Lowest Monthly Disapproval -- 1/13 -- 42.6%
Daily
Highest Daily Approval -- 1/31/13 -- 52.5%
Lowest Daily Approval -- 6/(20, 21, 29)/13 -- 45.6%
Highest Daily Disapproval -- 6/17/13 -- 49.6%
Lowest Daily Disapproval -- 2/24/13 -- 42.3%
Obama's Second Term Raw Monthly Data
[All-time high in bold, all-time low underlined.]
Month -- (Approval / Disapproval / Undecided)
06/13 -- 46.5 / 48.5 / 5.0
05/13 -- 48.3 / 46.9 / 4.8
04/13 -- 48.6 / 46.8 / 4.6
03/13 -- 48.5 / 46.3 / 5.2
02/13 -- 51.1 / 43.0 / 5.9
01/13 -- 52.7 / 42.6 / 4.7
Second Term Column Archives
[May 13], [Apr 13], [Mar 13], [Feb 13], [Jan 13]
First Term Data
To save space, the only data and statistics listed above are from Obama's second term. If you'd like to see the data and stats from Obama's first term, including a list of links to the full archives of the Obama Poll Watch column for the first term, we've set up an Obama Poll Watch First Term Data page, for those still interested.
-- Chris Weigant
Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant
Bout time we see some movement, eh!! :D
If Obama's numbers had been unchanged, I would have said we might as well chuck the entire polling, because there would have obviously been something rotten in Denmark...
CW, do you think the Snowden debacle is going to be with us for a while??
Michale
Obama leery of intervention in Mideast
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20130703/DA79SPAG0.html
That's our POTUS..
Still following his "Lead From Behind" (AKA Coward Of The County) policy because, obviously, it has worked so well in the past.. :^/
No wonder Obama's approval numbers are heading south..
Michale
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-qkeWcCGDZ0Y/UdItUdTkHOI/AAAAAAABNRA/XkM3Gy0ZIUM/s600/130701-obama-egypt-054.jpg
WOW....
Oh how the mighty have fallen...
Looks like Egypt is going down in flames...
If only someone could have predicted this back when "lead from behind" was the order of the day...
Oh... wait....
Michale
Looks like the only way to get any action around here is for Obama's approval numbers to be up, not down!! :D
Michale
Employer Mandate? Never Mind
Obama decides not to enforce the heart of his health-care law.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323899704578583493972896364.html
And the hits just keep on coming...
Don't look for Obama's numbers to rise any time soon...
How do ya'all like ObamaCare now, eh? :D
Michale
So, let me see if I understand the "new and improved" ObamaCare...
The BUSINESS mandate is suspended for a year because the Administration doesn't have a handle on the all the rules let alone a way to handle all the paperwork and verification..
But the PERSONAL mandate is still in place. The personal mandate will require individuals to purchase insurance if their employer doesn't provide it.
But how is the government going to know which employers provide insurance and which employers don't if there isn't any verify mechanism in place for businesses???
Do ya'all see the complete and utter train wreck that is ObamaCare???
Some may say that at least Democrats got SOMETHING on the books with ObamaCare...
But it's becoming clearer and clearer that this "something" makes things a WHOLE lot worse than things were before ObamaCare..
If Obama had ANY sense, he would join Republicans in repealing ObamaCare and do HealthCare reform right...
Michale
If Obama had ANY sense, he would join Republicans in repealing ObamaCare and do HealthCare reform right...
If Republicans want to do health care right, why not just fix it?
Let's be honest. They have no interest in fixing health care. That's why they're pushing REPEAL and reform.
Because they know that once they get it repealed, they can block any attempt to fix it.
Show me your plan to fix it and I might go along. But REPEAL and reform?
You're just lying to me about any attempts to reform.
-David
Garbage In, Garbage Out
When DEMOCRATs start calling Obama's signature legislation a "train wreck" you KNOW it's a disaster...
Name me ONE good thing that has come from ObamaCare that didn't have a disastrous side-effect...
Michale
David,
Obamacare probably can’t be fixed short of dumping it and starting over, but this would require an admission by the president and his men (and women) that they’re as incompetent and maladroit as events reveal them to be. The president’s acolytes in the media hail the delay as a genius stroke of politics, something to get the Democrats past the 2014 congressional elections before “the fiasco for the ages” is displayed in full.
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2013/jul/5/pruden-obamacare-called-fiasco-ages/
Comments?? :D
Michale
Comments?? :D
It would actually be easier to fix health care legislation than repeal it because you'd likely have Democratic support.
So why aren't Republicans talking about fixing it?
Why don't they point out what the problems are and say "Let's fix it!"?
Because ...
They really don't care about fixing health care
It's pretty simple really.
-David
p.s. The Washington Times is ... how shall I say it ... a bit biased :)
Name me ONE good thing that has come from ObamaCare that didn't have a disastrous side-effect.
Kids can stay on their insurance until 26.
You can't be denied insurance due to pre-existing conditions.
Your insurance company can't drop you if you get sick.
Insurance plans will now cover more preventative types of treatments such as mammograms and colonoscopies, flu shots, and counseling for quitting smoking.
Come to think of it ... name one thing that has had a disastrous effect?
-David
Come to think of it ... name one thing that has had a disastrous effect?
80% increase in insurance premiums in some markets..
Michale
Matter of fact.. Substantial increase in premiums in EVERY market....
ObamaCare was supposed to bring DOWN prices...
Not shoot them up...
Win The Future!!! :D
Michale