Obama's New August Strategy
President Obama, for the first time in memory, is not going to ignore August. Augusts haven't been kind to Obama in the past. But this time around it appears he's going to proactively go on the offensive for the month, rather than sitting on the sidelines during what is now known as "town hall season." How successful he will be in this effort remains to be seen, but it is at least refreshing to see him make the attempt.
Augusts have traditionally been long and languid on the political scene. Congress scarpers off to avoid the Washington miasmic heat, and up until the advent of YouTube, not much political news was ever made during this vacation lull. Then came the Tea Party Era, where videos of people screaming at their elected representatives became high entertainment. Politicians were caught rather flat-footed, since these "chat with the folks back in the home district" events had always been so low-key and low-risk. If some lunatic interrupted an event by ranting about his pet conspiracy theories, it might be a one-day story in the local newspaper -- but it certainly wouldn't even rate the front page of the Podunk Gazette, much less national airtime.
That all changed during the healthcare reform debate. The Tea Partiers had been riding a wave of popular attention, and now pretty much everyone had a video-capable cell phone to record even the most backwoods town halls in America. The national media gleefully went along for the ride, since August traditionally produced so little political news that they had nothing at all to compete with the videos of the ranters and ravers. Since that time, the politicians have become more savvy and they are taking these events a lot more seriously (those that haven't just cancelled all such events in pre-emptive retaliation). What this has meant is a whole month where the fringiest of the fringe are awarded center stage in our national political debate. Since the Republican Party has moved so far fringewards anyway, it was the party poised to actually benefit from airing their own fringe voices.
President Obama has, until now, mostly remained aloof during this period. To his detriment, as measured by public opinion polling. In both 2009 and 2010, Obama's job approval numbers took the biggest one-month hit in August that they would for the entire year. In 2011, Obama's worst three months were (in order): June, August, July. He broke the trend in the election year of 2012, while campaign season was underway. This year, it appears he's going to try something different, by launching a major political offensive on the economy and helping the middle class. His poll numbers so far this year have been sliding down from his post-election "second honeymoon," but they've reached dangerously low levels even before August begins. Perhaps this has something to do with his newfound boldness, or perhaps that's just too cynical. Either way, Obama doesn't have a lot to lose at this point in making the attempt to change the national political conversation.
The town hall season this year had been shaping up to be a big discussion (complete with extreme views being aired by a public not too concerned about political correctness) on immigration reform. This may still happen on schedule, given the fact that the most contentious town hall scenes happen during the "question and answer" period, and the crowd is going to ask what the crowd is going to ask -- no matter what else is happening in the political world. Republicans in the House punted working on immigration until after the August break, which puts the issue front and center for a lot of their base. Fears that bipartisanship might somehow break out in the House to pass the bipartisan Senate bill are the motivating factor for the Republican base. Rightwing talk radio has been whipping the issue up for months, and there are some people out there who are absolutely enraged that anything short of "round up the 11 million, ship them home tomorrow" is even under consideration. These voices will likely be heard during town hall season, no matter what Obama's talking about.
For the rest of the public, the contrast may be stark. Images of Republican House members trying to assuage anti-immigration reform types will be competing with Obama giving speeches about helping the middle class and improving the economy. The difference between the two types of image will be clear to all. Seen solely through the lens of politics, Obama has the chance to define both himself and his opponents and reap obvious political benefits by doing so.
Crass politics aside, however, Obama is setting himself up on the policy side of things very nicely as well. Because while immigration reform will be an issue for the House when they get back, there are two other looming issues which must be dealt with very soon. Immigration doesn't have any sort of hard-and-fast deadline, but the federal budget and the debt ceiling do. Both must be dealt with in September, in some fashion or another. This giant budget battle looms, which is why Obama has launched his speaking tour on the subject of the economy. He is preparing the ground for the September struggles.
So far, Obama has moved the debate to things he wants to talk about, although both the media and his opponents took the bait of Obama's "phony scandals" line and have mostly avoided direct discussion of the real economic theme of Obama's speeches. What, after all, is the Republican response to Obama's calls for Congress to get the job done and produce a budget he can sign?
Republicans were going to spend August talking up their own theme of "Fighting Washington." Obama has undercut this theme in a big way already -- by pointing out that anyone in Congress is not just part of Washington, but in fact they have a job description and they are failing miserably at doing the tasks we the people pay them to do. The federal budget is a yearly affair, it is not surprising or unique. The House has passed a budget document, and so has the Senate. But Republicans are refusing to even form a conference committee to work out a compromise, because "compromise" is an ugly and evil concept to their base. Specifically on the debt ceiling, some Republicans are already threatening to take the entire American economy hostage, once again, if they don't get every single item on their wish list from Democrats and the president. This is nothing new, really.
What is new, however, is that President Obama is fighting back, and he's doing so before Republicans have really even entered the ring. Some Republicans have begun to pivot from "Fighting Washington" to what I have decided to call the "Laurel And Hardy Defense." For those not up on classic comedy routines, the bombastic Ollie Hardy would, after some monumental screwup of his own making, turn to his hapless partner Stan Laurel and say with exasperation: "Now look what you've made me do!" This is precisely the line that some Republicans are now using to describe their own behavior versus the president's. Republicans hold the economy hostage and refuse to budge one inch in budget negotiations, and because Obama simply is not going to sign any bill which consists solely of Republican ideas, the congressional Republicans will take the economy over the cliff rather than compromise. As we enter free fall after either a government shutdown (if the budget isn't worked out) or the default of America's creditworthiness (if the debt ceiling isn't resolved), Republicans will smugly say: "Now look what Obama's made us do!" Or, perhaps (also from Laurel and Hardy): "Here's another fine mess Obama's gotten us into."
This showdown was likely always going to happen in this fashion. Anyone who has seen the modus operandi of the Republicans for the past two or three years should really not be surprised at how the upcoming budget fight is being set up. The only difference, really, is who will be playing offense and who will be playing defense. In previous years, Democrats have clung to the hope that Republicans would sooner or later realize that compromise was necessary, and by doing so they would be fairly muted in their public statements, especially about their opposition. Republicans, knowing in advance that they were in no mood to compromise, held no such illusions and felt free to characterize their opponents however they wished in public statements.
This time around, however, Obama has entered the field first. And Obama is attacking Congress and their refusal to do their jobs, pre-empting the Republicans' complaints about "Washington" before they can even get started. Because the House Republicans refused to act before August, they will face the heavy distraction of discussing immigration during their town halls. Democrats can lay out their case to the public in the meantime, which consists of their usual bargaining position: "We can compromise on many things, but there are a few deal-breakers which we will not even consider." This will be contrasted with the Republicans' position of: "We're not going to compromise on anything, we're going to fight battles we've repeatedly lost in the past all over again, and unless Obama signs on to the entire Republican list of demands, we will destroy the American economy for political reasons."
Now, I'm not saying that this is going to be a slam dunk for Obama. The media's idiotic insistence on "false equivalency" will lead them to attempt to paint both sides as being equally bad in the debate. So that's a headwind Obama and the Democrats face. But this time around, Obama is fighting back first -- he is attempting to start the conversation on his terms, before his opponents have even warmed up. And this time around, there are plenty of past examples of Republican brinksmanship to remind the public who is threatening to take the economy hostage, and who is trying to get something done for the American people and the middle class. So Obama's got a chance of building support for his positions this year -- a chance that hasn't really existed in years past. The difference is Obama seems to be eagerly charging into August, and (for once) taking the initiative and playing offense instead of defense. We'll see, in upcoming weeks, whether this strategy pays off for President Obama or not. But it certainly is refreshing to see him get out there and fight, this early in the game. Because it gives him a much better chance of winning the debate with the American people than in years past, when he all but ignored the month of August.
-- Chris Weigant
Cross-posted at The Huffington Post
Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant
The media's idiotic insistence on "false equivalency" will lead them to attempt to paint both sides as being equally bad in the debate.
For once, the media is actually getting it right.
Both sides ARE equally bad in this.
This whole budget issue could be solved in an hour or two if BOTH Party's would do one simple thing.
Forget about partisan Party politics and personal power/greed and simply do what's best for the country and the American people.
The fact that NEITHER Republicans NOR Democrats will do this shows that, in this case, the media does have it right...
Both Partys are to blame..
It's that simple...
Michale
But Republicans are refusing to even form a conference committee to work out a compromise, because "compromise" is an ugly and evil concept to their base.
It's going to be ugly until Republicans are actually held responsible for functional government.
Unfortunately, they've sold anti-government to their base. So all of the incentive is going to be to continue to be anti-government.
The real misfortune is that the 'liberal' media refuses to point out that it's one party gumming up the works.
This may be starting to change though as people and businesses become frustrated with the anti-everything approach.
http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Columns/2013/07/26/Ominous-Signs-for-the-GOP-in-2014.aspx#page1
-David
It's going to be ugly until Republicans are actually held responsible for functional government.
Same could be said for Democrats..
The real misfortune is that the 'liberal' media refuses to point out that it's one party gumming up the works.
That's because it's NOT just "one party" gumming up the works..
Democrats share the blame for trying the same old same old plans that have been PROVEN to be failures...
The very definition of insanity..
Take Obamacare.. If it was such a good idea, why is it becoming a "train wreck"... Why did Obama have to delay implementation??
Answer... Because it just won't work.. Insurance rates across the country are sky rocketing. Middle Class workers are seeing their hours cut dramatically.. Large corporations are doing away with full-time employees to avoid Obamacare...
How is ANY of this good???
Michale
Obama's new August strategy = the same as Obama's old strategy = give a speech that says nice things but then do or propose absolutely nothing policy wise to fix those issues.
http://rall.com/2013/07/29/sybil-obama
Answer... Because it just won't work.. Insurance rates across the country are sky rocketing. Middle Class workers are seeing their hours cut dramatically.. Large corporations are doing away with full-time employees to avoid Obamacare...
None of this is happening. You need to actually look outside and see the real world instead of believing right-wing-nut-world. Or just go and read fact-check or politifact for an hour and see how much absolute complete utter nonsense what Republicans are saying about Obamacare is.
Also ask yourself: if Obamacare is SO BAD why are Republicans lying through their teeth to denounce it?
It's the same reason why they invent fake socialist Obama to run against, because most of the policies implemented by Obama are ones they agree with (right of centre).
None of this is happening.
Actually, ALL of it is happening..
I could provide all the facts necessary to prove it beyond ANY doubt.
But it's of little use.. If the last month or so has proven ANYTHING, it's that facts mean very little around here when stacked up against partisan agendas...
Also ask yourself: if Obamacare is SO BAD why are Republicans lying through their teeth to denounce it?
Oh that's easy..
Republicans AREN'T lying..
Even DEMOCRATS are calling it a "train wreck" and trying to distance themselves from it.
Now, you ask YOURself.. If Obamacare is so good, why does it have to be delayed???
That's an easy one too..
Because it ISN'T good. It's not good at all..
Even the guy who WROTE it says that, for christ's sake!
Michale
Just ignore what Republicans are saying about Obamacare.
Just look at what DEMOCRATS are saying about Obamacare.
"Train wreck"
"Unmitigated disaster"
"utter failure"
I could go on and on with quotes from DEMOCRATS about Obamacare...
But, as I said.. Why bother...
"There are none so blind as those who will not see."
Just peruse Weigantia and see what WEIGANTIANS were saying about Obamacare before it passed..
They said everything I have said and a bunch more.. ALL Weigantians despised Obamacare more than I did...
But, once it became Obama's signature legislation, all of the sudden it was peachy keen wonderful...
Go figger... :^/
Michale....
74% of small businesses will fire workers, cut hours under Obamacare
washingtonexaminer.com/74-of-small-businesses-will-fire-workers-cut-hours-under-obamacare/article/2533131
Half of Small Businesses Will Cut Employee Hours to Avoid Obamacare Penalties
nbcnews.com/id/52527792/ns/business-small_business/t/half-small-businesses-will-cut-employee-hours-avoid-obamacare-penalties/#.Uffv8m0iz2Y
Half Of Small Businesses Say They'll Cut Worker Hours Because Of Obamacare: Survey
huffingtonpost.com/2013/07/18/small-business-obamacare_n_3617493.html
These are the facts, people....
Ya know.. FACTS.. Something ya'all USED to cherish...
Before the advent of Emperor Barack The First....
Hey Michale-
If businesses are going to cut worker hours to avoid providing health care, shouldn't we fix this "loophole"?
-David
I would have no issue with working to fix ObamaCare. Do you think Republicans would be willing to work on fixing it?
I would have no issue with working to fix ObamaCare. Do you think Republicans would be willing to work on fixing it?
Garbage In, Garbage Out. If something is so horrible to start with, it's useless to throw good money after bad.
Obamacare has little redeeming value. Even Democrats recognize this.
Better to start from scratch..
If businesses are going to cut worker hours to avoid providing health care, shouldn't we fix this "loophole"?
So, we're going to have the federal government order businesses to give people x number of hours so they can qualify for health care??
Why stop there??
Why not just have government take over all the businesses in the country and run them...
What could go wrong?? :D
That's the problem when government takes on an adversarial role to free enterprise...
That's the problem when government has a "my way or the highway" way of governing....
2016 simply CAN'T come soon enough...
Michale
David,
You're close to letting Michale oppose "something" i.e. Obamacare with "nothing".
Michale,
What do you propose for health care in the US? Are you in favor of passing the costs of care on the hospitals? Be positive, be specific. What are you in favor of?
It's the same reason why they invent fake socialist Obama to run against, because most of the policies implemented by Obama are ones they agree with (right of centre).
maybe that's why most dems don't like it very much. i realize that there are many positives - for example, these ten:
http://money.usnews.com/money/blogs/the-best-life/2013/07/15/10-good-things-about-obamacare
in many ways obamacare is better than nothing. just... not by all that much.
JL
Better to start from scratch.
But you never thought anything was wrong to begin with.
At least be honest and admit that you just want to undo it.
-David
What do you propose for health care in the US? Are you in favor of passing the costs of care on the hospitals? Be positive, be specific. What are you in favor of?
I am in favor of what works...
Beyond that, I do not have the knowledge or expertise to know exactly what that might be.
I DO know that, if the people who had a hand in creating something that they now call a "train wreck", defending said "train wreck" as "better than nothing" doesn't seem to me to be a viable past time...
At least be honest and admit that you just want to undo it.
Let me put it this way...
If I have a spike thru the middle of my head that is causing me an excruciating amount of pain, what is my best course of action?
Trying to work with the spike in my head to make it more palatable??
Or do my damndest to "undo" (IE remove) it...
in many ways obamacare is better than nothing. just... not by all that much.
Since insurance rates are skyrocketing all over the country and since employers are cutting people's hours (hence pay) I would say that Obamacare is WORSE than "nothing".. By quite the large margin...
Again, I only have to remind ya'all of your OWN comments you made about Obamacare before it BECAME Obamacare to show that this is true...
Michale,
"I am in favor of what works".
I can safely say we all agree.
So is the current system "working"?
So is the current system "working"?
The "current" system pre-Obamacare was working a LOT better than the current Obamacare system is working...
The problem is with the thinking that healthcare is an inalienable right, on par with freedom of speech and life, liberty and the pursuit of happyness...
In a perfect utopia, yea that would be the case..
But we don't live in a perfect utopia...
SOMEONE's gotta pay for all the benefits...
The problem with the Left's line of thinking is that it's all free and money can be printed...
That's just not the way it works in the real world...
Michale
The "current" system pre-Obamacare was working a LOT better than the current Obamacare system is working.
Working better for who?
The 30 million people w/o insurance?
I know you're fighting for business, Michale. And your concern is that somehow if we don't do everything that businesses tell us to do (more tax cuts, more deregulation, more corporate welfare) this is going to bring down the economy.
But it's been implemented before without the end of the world. Massachusetts is a great example.
Business has become the great welfare experiment of the last 30 years. With the idea that the benefits will trickle down. Only they haven't.
Time to end the experiment.
-David
The 30 million people w/o insurance?
As opposed to under ObamaCare where insurance rates are skyrocketing, people are being forced out of their plans and away from their doctors and middle class workers are seeing a huge hours/pay cut??
You are correct when you say that the system needs fixing.
*MY* only argument is that Obamacare is making things worse...
And I have the facts to back it up..
I know you're fighting for business, Michale. And your concern is that somehow if we don't do everything that businesses tell us to do (more tax cuts, more deregulation, more corporate welfare) this is going to bring down the economy.
I am fighting for a little common sense...
Time to end the experiment.
And replace it with a "Let Them Eat Cake" mentality??
Why can't you see how bad Obamacare is for the middle class?
Why don't you acknowledge the fact that workers are getting screwed so that Democrats can claim a victory based on their train wreck legislation??
What's more important here??
Obama's ego or middle class Americans??
Michale,
"I am fighting for a little common sense..."
Good, so are we. What do you propose?
"The problem is with the thinking that healthcare is an inalienable right."
So health care should be based on the ability to pay for said care? Health Care for the wealthy?
Just tryin to understand?
I am fighting for a little common sense.
Me too. If something is broke, let's fix it.
How would you improve Obamacare, Michale?
How could we make it better without going back to the 30 million uninsured state of before?
-David
Bravo David,
By George, I think you've got it.
It's easy to oppose "ObamaCare" & Michale does. But when asked to provide specific solutions he, & Republicans in general, get vague & quiet.
Now, I object to any system that forces private hospitals to care for all who present, regardless of ability to pay. There are several ways around it & I don't much care how you get around it, but you can't stick the hospitals with the cost of the care of the uninsured.
Good, so are we. What do you propose?
As I said above, I don't have the expertise to know what DOES work..
But I do have a BUTTLOAD of common sense and said buttload tells me that devising a system whereas the economic incentive to cut worker's hours/pay is risen to overwhelming proportions...
Well, that doesn't seem to me to be a viable system..
NOT if one is a "warrior for the middle class" as ya'all claim to be...
In short, I don't know what WILL work..
But it is painfully obvious to anyone without a partisan agenda what DOESN'T work....
And ObamaCare simply doesn't work..
And, apparently, Obama agrees with me. Which is why he postponed the mandate...
It's easy to oppose "ObamaCare" & Michale does. But when asked to provide specific solutions he, & Republicans in general, get vague & quiet.
Bull donkeys I get silent! Have you EVER known me to "get silent"???
ON ANYTHING!????
RePost of #7
74% of small businesses will fire workers, cut hours under Obamacare
washingtonexaminer.com/74-of-small-businesses-will-fire-workers-cut-hours-under-obamacare/article/2533131
Half of Small Businesses Will Cut Employee Hours to Avoid Obamacare Penalties
nbcnews.com/id/52527792/ns/business-small_business/t/half-small-businesses-will-cut-employee-hours-avoid-obamacare-penalties/#.Uffv8m0iz2Y
Half Of Small Businesses Say They'll Cut Worker Hours Because Of Obamacare: Survey
huffingtonpost.com/2013/07/18/small-business-obamacare_n_3617493.html
These are the facts, people....
Ya know.. FACTS.. Something ya'all USED to cherish...
Before the advent of Emperor Barack The First....
=============================
Silent, my left butt cheek! :D
How would you improve Obamacare, Michale?
Hmmmmmm
How to improve on this spike stuck thru the middle of my head...
Hmmmmmm
Tell ya what...
Let's remove the damn thing first.
THEN we can talk all ya want about "improving" on a spike thru the head...
Deal?? :D
No Deal Michale,
We know you oppose ObamaCare. Citing the same story from three differents sources adds quantity, not quality. But you've got us. We know you don't like it.
If you think the present system isn't broken; just say so.
If you've got a better system; put it out here. We can discuss it.
As it is though; you just oppose anything labeled ObamaCare.
I've got it!!!
Would you support RomneyCare?
We know you oppose ObamaCare. Citing the same story from three differents sources adds quantity, not quality.
Actually, it's called "Independent Confirmation"...
It shows that that accuracy of the reporting is likely 100% since it is cited from several different sources, as opposed to sources simply reporting the same report...
THAT makes it "quality" not quantity..
If you think the present system isn't broken; just say so.
I never said that. Matter of fact, I am on record as saying (MANY times) that the current system needs fixing.
Just as I am on record as saying (MANY times) that Obamacare doesn't fix anything. It simply makes a bad problem worse..
To date, not ONE single person here has been able to refute that claim...
Care to comment why the middle class is getting screwed because of Obamacare???
No???
Didna think so.. :D
If you've got a better system; put it out here. We can discuss it.
For the third (fourth?? fifth??) time. I do not have the expertise to formulate a plan that works..
I doubt anyone here does..
But I am smart enough to realize what DOESN'T work.
And Obamacare simply does not work as advertised..
The conflict here is that ya'all support it, simply because it IS *Obama*care...
Before it became Obamacare, ya'all hated it as much as I did.
Once it became Obamacare that hate automagically disappeared...
Ya'all gotta ask yourselves..
Why did Max Baucus call Obamacare a "train wreck"??
The guy is a Democrat who had a hand in writing the damn thing..
He has absolutely NO REASON to lie about it, no partisan agenda to say anything but the truth...
So, if the guy who wrote the damn thing calls it a train wreck and, if one ignores ALL political agendas......
Wouldn't it seem prudent to consider the possibility that Obamacare IS a train wreck???
Isn't it even slightly possible??
Why did Max Baucus call Obamacare a "train wreck"?
Why indeed? Another quote taken out of context.
http://www.slate.com/blogs/weigel/2013/05/24/the_secret_history_of_max_baucus_s_train_wreck_quote.html
What would cause the "train wreck"? Insufficient awareness of how the law worked. Not the law itself.
Insufficient awareness because budget was cut by Republicans.
I think Obamacare will likely work just fine in states that actually work to implement it.
Any bets on that one? What if it only fails in places where Republicans actively work to f*ck it up?
What would that say about conservatives? (I mean, other than that they've just about gone completely insane)
-David
Why indeed? Another quote taken out of context.
That's just spin...
If you have to spend over HALF A BILLION dollars to "explain" a law so it won't be a "train wreck" then I submit that the law is ALREADY a "train wreck"..
I think Obamacare will likely work just fine in states that actually work to implement it.
Despite ALL the evidence to the contrary..
Why won't anyone here address the FACT that employers are already cutting back on people's hours/pay because of Obamacare??
How is that, in ANY way, shape or form, a good thing??
Insufficient awareness because budget was cut by Republicans.
Over half a BILLION DOLLARS to "raise awareness"???
Do we really want or NEED a law that requires half a BILLION dollars to explain???
I thought all we had to do was PASS the law to learn what's in it?? No one said ANYTHING about having to spend a half a BILLION DOLLARS to understand it...
Let's face it.. That half a billion dollars will simply create a propaganda machine that Goebbels would envy...
A "Spin Machine".... A Half A Billion Dollar Spin Machine....
Nothing more...
Nothing but screaming and "anti Obama".
No solutions. No "let's fix this".
*sigh*
-David
No solutions. No "let's fix this".
It CAN'T be fixed!!
That's the whole point.
It's GARBAGE....
Garbage In. Garbage Out...
The simple fact that it requires half a billion dollars to "explain" it is a huge clue how bad it is..
I realize that, since it's Democrat legislation, you want to find a rose or a diamond SOMEWHERE in the mess...
But it's simply not possible...
Even if it WERE possible, I don't have the knowledge or expertise to know what will and will not work..
None of us do...
But it's simply undeniable to think that this legislation is going to work as promised..
It's not...
The facts SHOW us it's not..
I won't even bother getting into the fact that Obamacare is unconstitutional...
It's a tax... And, according to the Constitution, legislation that has anything to do with taxes must originate in the House.
But I doubt anyone on the Left cares about the Constitution...
Except when it suits the agenda, I mean... :D