It is a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.
William Shakespeare, Macbeth, Act V, Scene V

Now that we're done with both Round 1 and Round 2 of this year's annual budgetary battles, and while we have a pause here before Round 3 starts up, it's worth taking a moment to ponder the near-term future of the Republican Party.

The shutdown really consisted of two internal fights between factions of Republicans. The first of these, obviously, was the ongoing Tea Party takeover of the establishment Republicans. In fact, to mark the occasion of this fight moving squarely into the spotlight, from now on I'm going to honor the wing of the party with a fully-capitalized name, and will henceforth refer to the Establishment Republicans.

The second fight was more subtle, and is explained by this "only told in Washington" type of joke:

A freshman member of the House was being shown around during his first days in office by an older and wiser member of his party. The old pol was explaining how the seating worked in the House chamber. "Our side sits over here, and the other party sits over there."

The young politician responded, with all the fervor only a freshman can bring: "You mean that's where the enemy sits?"

The older gentleman sighed and said in a patient voice: "No, no... that is what we call the loyal opposition." He then walked the new representative out of the chamber, dragging him into the Rotunda in the center of the Capitol. With his back to the House wing, he pointed the other direction and asked the freshman: "What is over there?"

The freshman, now thoroughly confused, said: "That's the Senate."

To which the old pol responded: "That's right, son. That is the enemy."

Like I said, that joke doesn't travel well outside the Beltway, but you get the idea. Republican senators were the angriest at the House Tea Partiers of any group in Washington for the past few weeks, and not a few of them were willing to vent that anger to the television cameras. This is a result of John Boehner ceding all leadership to the Tea Partiers (and to Ted Cruz), but it is also part of an age-old power struggle within the Capitol.

In any case, those are the lines of division. The question then becomes: What next? What is the Republican Party going to do now? They are faced with alarming public opinion polling and a shrinking base. Midterm elections are just over one year away. We've got one more round of budget battles to get through early in 2014, and then America will need a whole new fiscal year's budget on October 1st, one month before the election happens.

Which way will the Republican Party go? As I see it, they've got three basic choices.

Lurch Right

While the past three weeks have broken the intraparty power struggle out into center ring, some voices of moderation and sanity did emerge from the Republican ranks. However, there weren't all that many of them -- especially on the House side. While John McCain and a few other senators made a strong case that Ted Cruz and his crusade was doomed to fail from the get-go, there weren't all that many House Republicans who were willing to publicly back this position up. They are terrified of the Tea Party "primarying" them in their own district, to be blunt.

But the next round of budget battles is going to happen right before primary season. The fear of the Tea Party will be acute and immediate. While 87 House Republicans are already on record voting against the Tea Party's wishes, few of them were willing to take a public stand even this time around. Next time, they might be rethinking their vote and be pushed to the right as a result. I have no idea if the Tea Partiers will be stupid enough to cause a second shutdown, but their position may indeed be strengthened by the more timid Establishment Republicans looking to burnish their conservative credentials right before primaries happen.

Taking a slightly longer view, no matter what happens in the budget battles to come, the Republican Party could cut hard right in the 2014 elections themselves. Putting aside the question of whether they'll keep control of the House or not, the ratio within the party of Tea Partiers to Establishment Republicans could shift in the Tea Party's direction. To put this another way, no matter the size of the Republican caucus, within the caucus itself the Tea Party could get a lot stronger after the elections. This would, by definition almost, chart a much more rightward course for the party as a whole. It may even get to the point where some moderate Republicans consider jumping ship (see: Arlen Specter), or re-registering as an Independent.

Civil war drags on

Sadly, this is the most likely option. The status quo continues. Because the national Republican Party is a very powerful organization, neither side may be marginalized any time soon in the struggle for control. The prize is such a big one that it'll be tough for either side to fully concede it to the other.

This doesn't bode well for Congress in the meantime. After all, we've just experienced a three-week fratricidal fight between the wings of the Republican Party, and it wasn't pretty. The mainstream media keep predicting, optimistically, that "now the fever has broken," just as they have since 2012. They've always gotten this wrong before, and the chances are pretty darn good they're going to get it wrong this time, too. Tea Partiers are just never going to wake up one day and have an epiphany and declare the Tea Party goals to be silly and unreachable. This is a very emotion-driven movement, and expecting them to suddenly end their fervor is just not very realistic.

This civil war may become entrenched, and it may start being fought on different battlefields. Major Republican donors (from the world of Big Business and Wall Street) are seriously disappointed in the Republican Party right now. They are not so disappointed that they're about to start funding Democratic candidates, but they are looking into funding more reasonable candidates than whichever Tea Partier screams the loudest. This seems like a subtle shift, but it could result in a very different playing field in the 2014 elections and beyond. If the big Republican dollars start flowing away from the Tea Party and towards Establishment Republicans only then it would signal an important shift backstage.

Of course, the civil war is going to be (temporarily) won in one way or another in the 2016 races. Eventually the Republican Party is going to have to rally around a single candidate for president. Whether it's Chris Christie causing angst with the Tea Partiers or Ted Cruz annoying the Establishment Republicans, the party is going to have to pick one direction for the 2016 campaign. Of course, if they lose, whichever faction got slighted will renew their efforts with vigor, saying: "I told you so! We need to move towards/away from (pick one) the Tea Party!" Which will start the civil war back up all over again.

Lurch Center

Because I am being polite, I will not insult Republicans by suggesting that the party "lurch left." Instead, we speak of the option that they lurch toward the center. Ahem.

The Republican Party is battered, right now. They just lost an enormous battle. One wing of the party told the other, at the start of this battle: "This is a stupid battle to fight, we're not going to win, and it is going to hurt us -- badly -- with the public." Turns out, they were right. There are many Republicans who told the party leaders (behind closed doors, away from the press, for the most part) not to shut the government down and not to hold the debt ceiling ransom, because it would end in disaster. It has now, indeed, done precisely that.

So maybe this strengthens the position of the Establishment Republicans. Maybe it will seriously weaken the Tea Partiers. Maybe the intra-party argument will now become: "You can work with us and get something done, or you can follow the Tea Party who only knows how to lead you into destruction and defeat -- but you can't do both." Maybe the cry "Remember the shutdown!" will be heard in Republican caucus meetings from now on -- the best worst example of Tea Party magical thinking.

Maybe John Boehner and Mitch McConnell will use this opportunity to boost their power and -- Boehner in particular -- will begin showing strong leadership when a minority faction starts having tantrums. Boehner could quite easily do so, by informing his caucus of some new House scheduling -- we pencil in these two weeks for Tea Partiers to pass whatever crazy bills they feel like, to run absolutely amok and shout as loud as they can on the battlements, but then after this date the Tea Party will then sit down and shut up and we will hold the important votes this bill needs. For instance, if there's a deadline on February 7th, then the Tea Partiers can have all of January, but come February the adult votes will take place, where Establishment Republicans will cut some sort of deal with the Democrats to allow America to function.

The biggest way to signal that the Republican Party is interested in repairing some of the damage it just did to itself would be for the House to begin debate on immigration reform. The party right now needs a way to convince the public that it is indeed interested in governing, and this would be the perfect way to do so. Republicans who are interested in growing their party and reopening the "big tent" of Republicanism once again could ignore their nativist fellow members and work with Democrats to pass something along the lines of the overwhelmingly bipartisan Senate bill. That could signal a major shift in the party, and it would do them a world of good heading into the 2014 elections, and beyond.

However, while I left this option for last because I knew it'd be the most fun to contemplate, I also think this is the least likely path for Republicans to choose. I think they're going to have to lose another few elections -- and lose big time -- before the party truly realizes that the time for change has come.

-- Chris Weigant

Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant