The 2014 election season is officially underway.

When I first wrote that opening sentence, I considered adding "[pause for groans]" at the end of it. For many, America's seemingly-unending electoral cycle is a source of cynicism (or worse), while for others it keeps the partisan edges sharp. Your mileage may vary, as they say online.

The biggest race of the week was the Texas primaries, but this firecracker turned into a fizzle, as the major candidates didn't have much problem defeating any of their upstart challengers. The general election race for governor will indeed be one to watch this fall, with Democrat Wendy Davis attempting to turn Texas at least slightly less red, but the primaries themselves didn't provide much in the way of surprises.

Next week, however, there will be a special election for a House seat in Florida, which the winning party (whichever it turns out to be) is going to proclaim as a bellwether for the upcoming 2014 midterms. No matter which side wins, the significance of the victory is likely to be wildly overstated, but that's not going to stop anyone from drawing their conclusions.

The problem with the race for Florida's 13th congressional district is a familiar one in politics -- there are many forces at play, and when the dust settles it is going to be impossible to tell which factor (if any) was the deciding one. Again, this isn't going to stop pundits from drawing all sorts of conclusions, warranted or not.

A special election is necessary because the incumbent died while in office. The district itself is about as purple as you can get (in a very purple state), which is one reason why it is attracting such interest. Millions of dollars have been spent on the race, much of it outside money (one accounting showed that over twice as much money has been spent on this one race than the incumbent spent in his last six races, to put things into perspective). The district itself narrowly went for Obama, but in normal midterms the Republicans usually have a big edge, meaning conclusions will be drawn over turnout (no matter which side wins). Since it is a special election, the winner will have to run again to retain the seat in November, meaning we could actually wind up with exactly the same matchup, before the year is out.

Caveats aside, though, it is an interesting election to watch. On the Democratic side is Alex Sink, who narrowly lost a statewide race for governor not so long ago (meaning she already has high name recognition, which can be crucial in smaller elections). On the Republican side is David Jolly, who has never run for office before.

The advertising attacks have been merciless, which is about par for the course for an election with oodles of money pumped into it. The Republican had to fend off a primary challenger, which took time and money out of his general election effort. The Democrat didn't have this to worry about, which freed her up to concentrate her resources on the general election. Sink has also raised more money than Jolly, although that doesn't count PAC money spent on both candidates' behalf (which has been significant). This has meant that Sink has had somewhat of an edge in the ad wars on television.

The character attacks have been pretty predictable. Republican Jolly used to work as a lobbyist in Washington, which isn't the most endearing résumé item for a potential politician to have, these days. He's been hit hard not only generically (just for being a lobbyist) but also over what he has previously lobbied for: privatizing Social Security. In a district with a high percentage of senior citizens, this is a potent issue indeed.

Democrat Sink has been hit with the charge that she'd just be a rubber stamp for Nancy Pelosi and Barack Obama. But, other than being a Pelosiite (Pelosian?), the Republicans are really trying to make the election a referendum on Obamacare. While Sink has adopted a "mend it, don't end it" stance on Obamacare, Jolly has painted her with a broader brush, trying to pin all the perceived sins of Obamacare on her candidacy -- which is the gameplan for many Republicans this fall, it should be noted.

This is one major reason why the election has garnered so much interest (and so much money). The result could be a precursor for how the Republican Obamacare attacks will fare in November. Then again, it might not be such a great indicator of how the issue will play elsewhere. Special elections are notorious for being intensely local affairs, and people who try to draw sweeping conclusions from them are often proved wrong (case in point: Democrats won several special House elections in early 2010, after which they went on to get their clocks cleaned in November).

But again, this won't matter to the punditocracy. The storyline is either going to be "Democrat loses as Republican ties anchor of Obamacare around her neck" or "Republican Obamacare attacks not as potent as previously thought." Watch for one of them to be the headline, next Wednesday, on a partisan website near you. [Actually, I'm being polite. If Jolly wins, the headline will no doubt be some form of: "Obamacare Sinks Sink," because the pun will prove to be irresistible.]

Neither candidate is a perfect one -- perfect candidates rarely exist in real life, after all. Both have had their problems on the campaign trail as well. Perhaps in the end the Social Security issue will decide the day, but even if this turns out to be true it may be ignored by people falling over themselves to draw a larger picture, even if it may not actually exist.

It's tough to tell who has an edge, in the final days of the campaign. The district itself could go either way, according to the polling. As I mentioned, the voters chose Obama, but Republicans have shown as much as a double-digit edge in past midterm elections, and the incumbent was a Republican. Early voting usually favors Republicans here, but so far the ballots which have been sent in only show a few points advantage for Jolly -- a worrisome fact for the Republicans. Of course, turnout may be key. If Democrats show up at the polls in larger numbers than expected, Sink may clinch a victory. If Democrats stay home, Jolly may emerge victorious. Of course, this is true on a certain level in any election.

Whichever happens, it is going to feed into a narrative from one partisan side or the other. If Sink wins, then Democrats will gleefully warn Republicans that attacking Obamacare just isn't going to be enough to actually win elections (they'll also point to Ken Cuccinelli's recent loss in the Virginia governor's race to bolster their claim). If Jolly wins, Republicans will become confident that there will be a 2014 landslide, and they will redouble their efforts to place Obamacare front-and-center in all the upcoming Senate races.

Oddly enough, whichever outcome takes place may become a sort of self-fulfilling prophecy. If the Republican loses, the Republican Party as a whole may decide to lean on different issues for the remainder of the year a bit more -- which would widen the debate across the board. If the Democrat loses, Democrats in other races may seek to put more distance between themselves and President Obama (and, of course, Obamacare). Which is why this particular race could prove to be very influential to the 2014 election season -- because no matter what happens, it could change the campaigns of a lot of other candidates as a result.

-- Chris Weigant

Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant