If life were but a metaphor, the headlines would now be reading: "Train Does Not Wreck, Pulls Into Station 7 Minutes Early." Of course, I am speaking of Obamacare, a subject which Republicans have all but reduced (in their own minds, at least) to a mumbling mantra: "trainwreck... trainwreck... trainwreck." But as more and more good news appears, the real story (with apologies to Sir Arthur Conan Doyle, of course) is "the train which did not wreck in the night."

The most recent good news for Obamacare came from two different sources: insurance companies, and the Congressional Budget Office. The C.B.O. just issued a report which states that 12 million more Americans will have health insurance this year -- that's "12 million more than if Obamacare had never passed," mind you. It also had good news on the budgetary front: the costs will be $5 billion less than expected for the first year, and over $100 billion less than was estimated for the first decade. So Obamacare will achieve its main objective -- bringing health insurance to people who didn't have it -- and in doing so will cost less than previously thought.

That is pretty good news, but it doesn't stop there. Health insurance companies are showing a goodly amount of optimism about the law's second year, as well. Companies are indicating that they're going to jump into more states' insurance markets than they did in the first year, and that the marketplace idea is going to do exactly what it was designed to do: keep prices down by competition. Here's the beginning of the Politico article which broke this news:

Health insurers got their first taste of Obamacare this year. And they want seconds.

Insurers saw disaster in the fall when Obamacare's rollout flopped and HealthCare.gov was a mess. But a strong March enrollment surge, along with indications that younger and healthier people had begun signing up, has changed their attitude. Around the country, insurers are considering expanding their stake in the Obamacare exchanges next year, bringing their business to more states and counties. Some health plans that skipped the new marketplaces altogether this year are ready to dive in next year.

At least two major national insurers intend to expand their offerings, although a handful of big players like Aetna, Humana and Cigna, are keeping their cards close for now. None of the big-name insurers have signaled plans to shrink their presence or bail altogether after the first rocky year. And a slew of smaller health plans are already making moves to join more states or get into the Obamacare business for the first time.

That's good news indeed, especially when you consider that the insurers themselves have the biggest vested interest of all in Obamacare's success or failure. If the train had wrecked (or "were wrecking," or even "is headed for a wreck next year"), then the insurers would be fleeing the system in droves. They are not. Because it is working exactly as designed.

Obamacare (or, more accurately, the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act) was designed as a tradeoff for the insurance companies. They would be forced to accept anyone (even with pre-existing conditions) and forced to get rid of the worst abuses of the old system (such as lifetime caps or charging women more). In return for these changes, they would get a lot of new customers -- and enough healthy customers to offset the costs incurred by the first part of the bargain. The deal, at heart, was an economic one for them.

Republicans have now convinced themselves that Obamacare cannot work, will not work, and has not worked so far. It is a matter of faith, to them. But the facts say otherwise. If the trainwreck had already happened (or was going to happen soon), all the insurance companies would have to do to see the wreckage would be to look at their own bottom line. They are starting to do so, and they are seeing that the system is not only sustainable, but that even more money can be made by expanding into new markets. That is a good definition of success.

Another good definition of success is the metric reported by the C.B.O. -- the number of people who will have health insurance this year who would not have had it without Obamacare. They peg this number at 12 million. It's a good measuring stick to use -- much better than "how many have signed up on the website," in fact -- and it should be treated as the bottom line on whether Obamacare succeeds overall. The main purpose of passing Obamacare in the first place was to get more people insured, after all. So the best metric to use is the one that shows how many people got health insurance who would not have had it without the Obamacare law. And that number is now targeted to be 12 million people in the first year (rising to 26 million throughout the decade -- a full million more than previously estimated).

The third definition of Obamacare's success is the budgetary cost. Now, the C.B.O. report isn't a balance sheet for the entirety of Obamacare, just the direct costs. The report points this out, stating that overall Obamacare is still projected to save the federal government more money than it costs. But just looking at the costs for the first decade, the C.B.O. reports their previous estimate of $1,487 billion was too pessimistic, and lowered it to $1,383 billion -- a drop of slightly more than $100 billion, or almost exactly 7 percent. Which is why I snarkily used "Pulls Into Station 7 Minutes Early" in my metaphorical headline.

These are all ready-made talking points for Democrats. Obamacare will insure 12 million people who would be out in the cold if the law hadn't passed. Obamacare is going to cost 7 percent less than expected, because the exchanges are indeed providing enough competition. And that competition is going to heat up next year, as insurance companies expand their offerings to new states -- which they wouldn't be doing if the train were actually wrecking.

What this all means politically is anyone's guess. But sooner or later, voters are going to start seeing the entire Republican "Obamacare trainwreck" mantra as nothing more than the refrain from an old song: "Who are you going to believe, me or your lyin' eyes?" Because my guess is that this won't be the last of the good news for Obamacare, as better and better data is released throughout the rest of this year.

-- Chris Weigant

Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant