In one week, House Republicans will vote on a replacement for Eric Cantor, who will be stepping down from his Majority Leader position (due to his loss in this week's primary). This vote will provide a test of strength for both the Tea Party faction and for the Establishment Republicans. Who wins this power struggle may eventually determine the direction of the Republicans in the House for years to come, meaning it'll be a fairly important vote.

Since Cantor's unexpected and shocking loss, the jockeying to replace him has been fast and furious. The three House leadership positions, in descending rank, are: the Speaker of the House, the Majority Leader, and the Majority Whip. Speaker John Boehner has publicly stated that he will not be taking sides in the battle for the number two position, and he also (if rumors are to be believed) very quietly leaked that he will not -- as some have speculated -- be stepping down from his own leadership position after this year's midterms. This assumes the Republicans will retain the majority in the House, which is a pretty safe bet, at this point.

Cantor, however, has stated he'd like the current Majority Whip to replace him as Majority Leader. The representative who holds this job is Kevin McCarthy, from California. At this point, he is the clear frontrunner from the Establishment Republican faction. The Tea Party has not rallied around a single candidate yet, although at this point it looks like Pete Sessions from Texas may be who the Tea Partiers get behind. An intra-Texas rivalry between Sessions and Jeb Hensarling was avoided when Hensarling decided to take himself out of the running (this was important, because Texans alone represent a full ten percent of all House Republicans).

This is, obviously, an incredibly fast-moving story. All of the above -- the announcement that Cantor would step down, the various candidacies to replace him, and Hensarling's exit from the race -- have all happened within the last 48 hours or so. The vote itself will take place one week from today. We may not even learn the details of the final result, since the voting for leadership positions within a party is by secret ballot (and there's nothing to stop the Republicans from refusing to announce the vote total afterwards).

Whether Boehner stays in his job for the next two years or not, this is still a pivotal moment for the party. The Majority Leader's job is essentially to be the person who decides what legislation will move to the floor for final votes. To put it another way, he sets the agenda for all House Republicans. If Boehner does ever step down while Republicans enjoy a majority in the House, the Majority Leader will be the first in line to replace him (Cantor has long been assumed to be next in line for the speakership, which is obviously now never going to happen).

The Tea Partiers have one point that seems valid, which is that all their current leadership hail from blue states. They make the case that it's time for a red state Republican to wield some power in the chamber, which may be somewhat persuasive. But they may have to settle for a leadership swap -- since if McCarthy is elevated to Majority Leader, he will leave the Majority Whip position open. This may be the basis for a compromise of sorts between the two factions: have the Establishment Republican move up to the number two spot, and give a Tea Partier the chance at the number three spot.

This may be the best outcome for all concerned (excepting, of course, Sessions), but it is by no means certain. McCarthy wouldn't be all that big a change in leadership style (in terms of the Republican agenda) than Cantor, really. For Democrats wishing to actually get something (anything!) done in the next two-and-a-half years, this may be the best option. For Establishment Republicans, elevating McCarthy would retain control of the House's direction by those who take the national party's aspirations into account, rather than a radical. Tea Partiers would move into the leadership, although at a reduced level -- which may give them a springboard to later move up the ladder. Having a Tea Partier as Majority Whip might be the best they can hope for, at this point.

While the Tea Party has quite a bit of leverage within the House Republicans, their power is still far less than a majority of the Republican caucus. Depending on how you define "Tea Partier" (or, more accurately, depending on how individual House Republicans define themselves), there are roughly 50-70 Tea Partiers out of over 230 Republicans in the chamber -- which, while substantial, is still less than one-third of the caucus as a whole. This may mean they just don't have the strength to install one of their own as Majority Leader, and it may also mean they would gladly settle for claiming the Majority Whip position.

Of course, all of this is the sheerest of speculation. House Republicans are going to have a frantic week, as the candidates all lobby the entire caucus for support. Anything could happen as a result, and since the vote will be secret, we may have nothing but speculation about what happened even after the outcome is announced. The only thing which can now be definitively said is that the race to replace Cantor is now officially on, and the gladhandling and pleas for support are going to get more and more intense for the next seven days within the Republican caucus.

-- Chris Weigant

Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant