The Impending Showdown
"It's quiet out there... too quiet."
This line (now a full-blown cliché) was usually uttered by sentries in the old Hollywood Westerns, right before a blazing battle erupted -- which is why it seemed so appropriate today. All's been pretty quiet on the political front this August, mostly because town hall "meet your congressman" public events are fast becoming a thing of the past. Oh, sure, there's been some random sniping going on, but no gigantic issue has overshadowed everything else on the political scene (as in 2010, for instance, when we spent all summer arguing over the "Ground Zero mosque"). But we seem to be poised for a showdown when Congress returns to town early next month, and one way or another it may wind up completely defining the midterm election.
The big question right now is whether President Obama is soon going to announce a sweeping change in deportation policy. He's been "running the idea up the flagpole" for a while now, and could announce a new policy in early September (the White House has previously said he was going to take all of August to measure all the options). But then again, he might wait until the continuing resolution to fund the government passes Congress. Or Obama could even wait until after the midterms (as, indeed, some Democrats seem to be begging him to do).
There are other issues brewing, though, even if Obama does hold off on his big immigration announcement. Republicans (Tea Partiers, especially) have latched onto an incredibly obscure issue (the "Export-Import Bank") and seem prepared to fight to the death over it during the upcoming budget negotiations, for some unfathomable reason. And that's just one issue which could derail the budget process -- there could easily be many others quietly lurking out there.
The beginning of October is the beginning of a new fiscal year for the federal government. What this means is that Congress is going to have to pass some sort of funding bill, or else face another shutdown. It was less than a year ago (how quickly we all forget, eh?) that Republicans did shut the federal government down, for a whopping three weeks. What Congress passed back then (after the Republicans caved) will turn into a pumpkin at the end of next month, so they've got to pass some sort of "continuing resolution" bill so the government can continue to operate. The original plan (this being an election year) was that this would be not very contentious, and that both House Republicans and Senate Democrats would pass an incredibly short-term extension of the budget (two or three months, likely), just to get them past the election. But this plan ignores the Tea Party faction, which is always fond of lighting the fuse on this particular bundle of dynamite and then tossing it onto the railroad trestle ahead of the speeding train. They probably won't shut the government down this time in another futile effort to kill Obamacare (not after last time), but they could indeed do so for a whole range of other issues.
What all this means is it might only be a question of who fires the first shot, because a showdown seems if not inevitable than at least more likely than not. This is all going to play out with less than two months to go before the election, which is why it could become the defining issue for the voters.
If President Obama goes ahead and announces sweeping changes to immigration policy, Republicans are going to immediately become apoplectic with rage. "Thar's a-gonna be a shootout," in other words (to continue our Western metaphor). They are likely not going to be able to resist showcasing the most extreme voices in their caucus. Some of them are already threatening to shut down the government over the issue, in fact. This will pit Obama against the House Tea Partiers, in a replay of last year's shutdown.
Obama is a bit weaker politically this year, but not by a whole lot (his job approval polling is about two or three percent lower than it was last October -- significant, but not overwhelmingly so). Establishment Republicans know that the American public has largely forgotten all about the last shutdown by now, and they will be horrified at the prospect of reminding everyone right before the midterms. The Tea Partiers, however, do not share this opinion. The last time around, John Boehner wasn't able to control the House Tea Partiers, and Ted Cruz was leading the Senate Republicans (much to Mitch McConnell's dismay). McConnell and Boehner may not be able to control Tea Partiers next month any better than they did last year -- especially with the provocation of Obama announcing big immigration changes.
Some enterprising Democrat working for the national party apparatus just put up a "Shutdown Broken Promises" website (the site just went up, and needs a lot more quotes posted to really be effective, I should point out). This site was created to absolutely taunt Republicans who, last year, swore up and down -- over and over again -- that they simply were not going to shut the government down. Right up until the time that they actually did so. This shows a certain amount of feistiness from Democrats over the issue, which can be read as an iron-clad promise to use the shutdown issue as a blunt political object from now until the election. Democrats overwhelmingly won the battle of public opinion last time, and there's no reason to think they won't do so again -- even if Republicans merely threaten a shutdown (without actually going through with it). Democrats will be making the case, out on the campaign trail, that they are the only ones with enough competence to actually govern rather than just hold political tantrums. This could very well resonate, with a public that holds Congress in unbelievably low esteem.
If Obama does announce immigration changes, Republicans may decide the issue is bigger than any competence issue, and go right ahead and shut the government down. But this doesn't automatically make the issue a winner for Democrats everywhere in the midterms, of course. Polling on immigration is pretty volatile, meaning it can jump around when the issue is on the news every single night (see: the children "border crisis" a few weeks ago). Polling varies widely by region and state, as well. Vulnerable Democrats in red states (and there are a lot of them this year, especially in the Senate) are already terrified that the issue could be successfully demagogued against them. Look for at least some Democrats to loudly and publicly break with Obama over immigration, right after his announcement, if it happens before the election. This could be convenient for some of them, since showing independence from Obama is already part of their campaign strategy -- it would give them a clear issue where they could tell voters: "See, I'm not just a rubber stamp for the White House!"
As with any showdown, it's almost impossible to accurately predict what the ultimate result will be, when the dust clears. Who will remain standing, and who will be sprawled in the dirt? Will immigration become the key issue in the 2014 midterms? Will we all learn to say "Ex-Im Bank," just like the citified, inside-the-Beltway folk do? Will the Tea Party rustle the Republican cattle once again? Will National Parks close their gates for the second time? Stay tuned, Buckaroos, because while it's quiet out there now, it probably won't be for very much longer.
-- Chris Weigant
Cross-posted at The Huffington Post
Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant
Someone let the fences go
Wild-eyed bunch moved in, ya know
Shootin’ up the streets
Shoutin’ everybody down
The dogs all runnin’ loose
Wrecked the paper
Closed the school
Tired old judge got roughed up too
No one left to make a stand
They whisper, “What’s the use?”
I think we need a gunslinger
Somebody tough to tame this town
I think we need a gunslinger
There’ll be justice all around
John Fogerty
That song was about the King George W and the GOP running amok. Obviously, we didn't get a gunslinger. We got BHO.
JFC -
Some folks are born made to wave the flag
Ooh, they're red, white and blue
And when the band plays "Hail to the Chief"
Oh, they point the cannon at you, Lord
It ain't me, it ain't me
I ain't no Senator's son
It ain't me, it ain't me
I ain't no fortunate one, no
Some folks are born silver spoon in hand
Lord, don't they help themselves, oh
But when the tax men come to the door
Lord, the house look a like a rummage sale, yes
It ain't me, it ain't me
I ain't no millionaire's son, no, no
It ain't me, it ain't me
I ain't no fortunate one, no
Yeah, some folks inherit star-spangled eyes
Ooh, they send you down to war, Lord
And when you ask them, "How much should we give?"
Oh, they only answer: more, more, more, oh
What he had to say about Vietnam. Still astonished that this song is used to sell pickup
trucks, personally....
-CW
"It's quiet out there... too quiet."
"The perimeter's quiet."
"Yeah, a little too quiet."
"Well, that was easy."
"Yeah, a little too easy."
"Look, it's Raph!"
"Yeah, a little too Raph."
-TEENAGE MUTANT NINJA TURTLES
:D
The big question right now is whether President Obama is soon going to announce a sweeping change in deportation policy. He's been "running the idea up the flagpole" for a while now, and could announce a new policy in early September (the White House has previously said he was going to take all of August to measure all the options). But then again, he might wait until the continuing resolution to fund the government passes Congress. Or Obama could even wait until after the midterms (as, indeed, some Democrats seem to be begging him to do).
Interesting conundrum Obama faces..
Does he do it before the midterms to galvanize the Hispanic vote but totally destroy the chances of Democrats keeping the Senate??
Or does he wait til after the midterms, totally depressing the Hispanic vote and risk a GOP tsunami that takes the Senate by storm??
It's a tough call.. :D
My guess is that Obama, being Obama, is more worried about himself and his legacy.. He will figure that he better do something BEFORE the GOP takes the Senate or else he might find himself unable to do anything..
September is my prediction..
There are other issues brewing, though, even if Obama does hold off on his big immigration announcement. Republicans (Tea Partiers, especially) have latched onto an incredibly obscure issue (the "Export-Import Bank") and seem prepared to fight to the death over it during the upcoming budget negotiations, for some unfathomable reason. And that's just one issue which could derail the budget process -- there could easily be many others quietly lurking out there.
Whatever keeps the little Tea Partyers happy and busy is all right by me.. :D
The beginning of October is the beginning of a new fiscal year for the federal government. What this means is that Congress is going to have to pass some sort of funding bill, or else face another shutdown. It was less than a year ago (how quickly we all forget, eh?) that Republicans did shut the federal government down, for a whopping three weeks.
And Democrats and Obama made sure that it hurt.. I believe those were the EXACT orders given to federal drones. "Make It Hurt"...
The pathetic and childish kind of "leadership" I have come to expect from Obama and Democrats..
This could be convenient for some of them, since showing independence from Obama is already part of their campaign strategy --
And why is that??
Because Obama is a failed leader and a failed leader is an albatross around any politicians neck, if they are of the same Party..
As with any showdown, it's almost impossible to accurately predict what the ultimate result will be, when the dust clears. Who will remain standing, and who will be sprawled in the dirt? Will immigration become the key issue in the 2014 midterms? Will we all learn to say "Ex-Im Bank," just like the citified, inside-the-Beltway folk do? Will the Tea Party rustle the Republican cattle once again? Will National Parks close their gates for the second time? Stay tuned, Buckaroos, because while it's quiet out there now, it probably won't be for very much longer.
It will be interesting to see what the make-up of Congress will be after the dust settles..
If there is any justice on the planet, the Republicans will have a Veto/Filibuster proof majority in the Senate and can get this country back on track...
For personal reasons, their first order of business should be to expand the powers of the CFPB!! :D
Michale
Some folks are born made to wave the flag
Ooh, they're red, white and blue
And when the band plays "Hail to the Chief"
Oh, they point the cannon at you, Lord
It ain't me, it ain't me
I ain't no Senator's son
It ain't me, it ain't me
I ain't no fortunate one, no
Gods, I love that song!!!
Ever see TROPIC THUNDER?? :D
Michale
Ever see TROPIC THUNDER?? :D
Speaking of movies, CW..
The wife and I have set aside a night early next week to watch PULP FICTION...
I'll let ya know.. :D
Michale
What he had to say about Vietnam.
Yea, back to a time when a vocal portion of this country thought that patriotism and American Exceptionalism were evil..
How far we have come, eh?? :^/
Michale
JFC,
if you want to hear a great song about W, listen to hugh blumenfeld's "King George III" - i can't seem to find the lyrics online, but you should be able to stream the audio for free.
michale,
The wife and I have set aside a night early next week to watch PULP FICTION...
if you can, see the long version; there are a few outstanding extended scenes that weren't in the theatrical release.
JL
if you can, see the long version; there are a few outstanding extended scenes that weren't in the theatrical release.
Pulp Fiction: Extended Edition
It says it has an extra 10 mins of footage..
Restored Scenes:
* Extended Drug Deal
* Mia Interviews Vincent
* Extended Jack Rabbit Slim?s scene
* Extended Cab Ride
* Monster Joe
Michale
Restored Scenes:
* Extended Drug Deal
* Mia Interviews Vincent
* Extended Jack Rabbit Slim?s scene
* Extended Cab Ride
* Monster Joe
yup, that's the one.
Woot!!! :D
Michale
Tropic Thunder ... a classic! And how the hell is Fortunate Son used to sell pickup trucks. Then again, Springsteen's Born in the USA is frequently used inappropriately.
It's not a nationalist song! Sheesh ... lyrics people. Listen to 'em.
:)
Heheh. Why I remember a time when patriotism meant questioning the government's wars. Not blindly going along with them.
Get off my lawn you kids!
And let us know what you guys think of Pulp Fiction, Michale. I'm not a big Tarantino fan but I think Pulp Fiction is by far his best movie.
-David
p.s. Obama should definitely move on immigration.
Heheh. Why I remember a time when patriotism meant questioning the government's wars. Not blindly going along with them.
What about thoughtfully going along with them??
p.s. Obama should definitely move on immigration.
yea, cuz we really need more criminals and ISIS terrorists here in the USA, eh??
First terrorist attack on US soil that can be traced back to the southern border, guess who is going to get the blame???
Democrats won't be able to be elected country dog catcher for a decade...
Michale
And let us know what you guys think of Pulp Fiction, Michale. I'm not a big Tarantino fan but I think Pulp Fiction is by far his best movie.
Yea, I am not a big Tarantino fan myself... He seems to have a buttload of violence and crap JUST for having violence and crap..
But I like Travolta and Samuel L, so we're gonna give it a go...
Michale
What about thoughtfully going along with them?
Me personally, I'm not comfortable with rich people sending other people off to war (when they won't send their own kids).
If we want to see real change in this country, all we'd have to do is bring back the draft. Make everyone go fight the wars.
I think you'd see more anti-war protests than ever before. The minute suburban kids could be called up is the minute we'd see change.
-David
Me personally, I'm not comfortable with rich people sending other people off to war (when they won't send their own kids).
OK, you personally.. No prob.. But you have to allow that others might feel different and they have a right to feel that way, no?? :D
If we want to see real change in this country, all we'd have to do is bring back the draft. Make everyone go fight the wars.
I would take a step further and follow Israel's model..
MANDATORY MILITARY SERVICE... At least 4 years.. I think Israel is 2 years, but we're better than that.. :D
Michale
But you have to allow that others might feel different and they have a right to feel that way, no?
Always. I can only speak for myself and I'm not interested in fighting a war that's making someone else rich.
MANDATORY MILITARY SERVICE
I believe war is a last resort. But if we are going to do it, I think everyone should be required to do it. Not just the unfortunate sons and as strange as you might think this is, Michale, I'd support mandatory military service because I think things would be different if wealthy and suburban kids had to serve in the military.
Here here!
-David
I believe war is a last resort. But if we are going to do it, I think everyone should be required to do it. Not just the unfortunate sons and as strange as you might think this is, Michale, I'd support mandatory military service because I think things would be different if wealthy and suburban kids had to serve in the military.
It might make our so-called leaders be more careful about heading us into a war if they knew their own kids would be on the front lines, I agree..
There is a Star Trek novel called DWELLERS IN THE CRUCIBLE that was just this kind of scenario...
For every Federation planet, the "codes" to start a war were implanted into the chests of the leader's oldest child's heart.. The only way to get the codes was to cut out the heart of the child. Therefore the leader would have to gut their own child if they wanted to go to war...
Of course, such an idea is ludicrous, but the symbolism is pretty heady stuff...
That's why I like Trek so much. I have often said and it's oh so true that there isn't much one CAN'T learn from watching and reading Star Trek...
Michale
"how the hell is Fortunate Son used to sell pickup trucks"
Apparently, it was jeans. I assume that baby boomer nostalgia is what the they were going for.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fortunate_Son
"I'd support mandatory military service because I think things would be different if wealthy and suburban kids had to serve in the military."
I'd support it just to test the Supremes in their commitment to Sincerely Held Religious Beliefs. I think their Hobby Lobby atrocity conflicts with that word "mandatory". I suspect that lots of Fortunate Sons would become Quakers.
I'd support it just to test the Supremes in their commitment to Sincerely Held Religious Beliefs. I think their Hobby Lobby atrocity conflicts with that word "mandatory". I suspect that lots of Fortunate Sons would become Quakers.
Not necessarily. There are many ways to serve that don't involve combat, so as to satisfy some religious belief...
Michale
The worst were the "conscientious objectors" who weren't opposed to war, but thought they could pick and choose which wars they would fight in..
Guess what??
AIN'T gonna happen...
Yer either against war or your not...
Michale
Pulp Fiction is a disgusting combination of extreme violence, vulgar dialogue, super freaky sex, and death-defying drug use with a little old testament gobbledygook all chopped up in the kitchen blender. I liked it a lot, but I think I'd have liked it better w/o space alien Travolta. Harvey Keitel was excellent and I liked Bruce Willis better than anything else I've ever seen him in.
Pulp Fiction is a disgusting combination of extreme violence, vulgar dialogue, super freaky sex, and death-defying drug use with a little old testament gobbledygook all chopped up in the kitchen blender.
I liked it but it wasn't that good :)
-David
Pulp Fiction is a disgusting combination of extreme violence, vulgar dialogue, super freaky sex, and death-defying drug use with a little old testament gobbledygook all chopped up in the kitchen blender.
And here I thought I wouldn't like it!! :D
but I think I'd have liked it better w/o space alien Travolta.
I actually thought BATTLEFIELD EARTH wasn't too bad... But then again, I thought THE POSTMAN was an awesomely EPIC pic.. :D No accounting for taste, eh? :D
and I liked Bruce Willis better than anything else I've ever seen him in.
Bruce Willis will forever be John McClane, but I also have a sneaky admiration for Corbin Dallas and The Jackal.. :D
Michale
Yo CW??
NNL.... :^D
Michale
A new interpretation of a series of recent scientific experiments suggests that the answer is simpler than anyone thought. That was the Oneness in that briefcase.
Quantum™ be upon you. The Singularity is near.
A new interpretation of a series of recent scientific experiments suggests that the answer is simpler than anyone thought.
Screw the answer...
What was the question???
And pass me another beer.. :D
Michale
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2014/aug/28/obama-admits-isil-dilemma-we-dont-have-strategy-ye/
That is Obama's problem..
He is simply incapable of making a decision. He lets situations unfold and then he REACTS to them..
It's exactly why James Foley died...
Dithering by Obama...
Michale
"We don't have a strategy, yet."
Well, that was a jaw-dropping public admission.
Not that anyone who has been paying attention over the course of the last several months wasn't already painfully aware that a comprehensive strategy to defeat IS has not yet materialized.
We should drone the evildoers with hellfire before they bring their sharia dope across the Rio Grande.
JFC
Non-state Actor
Michale [3] -
A recent Washington Post article had a slightly different take: Obama will announce immigration reform before the election because he's already given up on holding the Senate.
He was going to announce it over Labor Day weekend, but apparently that date's already slipped a week or two (this is from the rumor mill, don't know how true it is, I should mention).
For personal reasons, their first order of business should be to expand the powers of the CFPB!!
Never would have taken you for a fan of Elizabeth Warren. Heh. Couldn't resist. Seriously, though, if you want a strong CFPB, you should be voting Democratic. You do realize that, don't you?
:-)
nypoet22 -
There's a long version of PF? Wow, sounds like I need to watch that!
akadjian -
Yeah, it astonishes me no end that corporations use songs and DON'T LISTEN TO THE LYRICS beforehand. "Fortunate Son" is not a jingoist song. Neither is "American Woman," for that matter (written by a Canadian band)...
Michale [14] -
Don't forget Bruce Willis. He's in it too. Sam Jackson is downright scary in it...
As for mandatory military service, I'd be for it if they followed the French model, where you can do your national service either in the military or in the government somewhere else. Not everyone belongs in uniform, but universal service is an interesting idea.
akadjian -
Yeah, I have a big problem with "sending poor kids off to die" as a military model, too.
Michale [18] -
That's a pretty interesting way to assure wars don't start over stupid reasons. Almost sounds like it was written by Harlan Ellison...
John From Censornati -
I could have SWORN I heard it in a pickup truck ad. About 5 years ago or so. In the summertime, around the 4th, even. But maybe it was just a local dealership, that could be....
Hey, you're right -- SCOTUS has said corporations are people, so they should serve in the military too! Heh.
[23] -
BWAH hah hah! That was funny! Best description of a Tarantino movie I've ever read... thanks!
:-)
OK, that's it for now, gotta go watch the news....
-CW
Neither is "American Woman," for that matter (written by a Canadian band)...
Bonus points, by the way, for anyone who knows who that phenomenal Canadian band is and who's its equally phenomenal lead singer.
No other version of American Woman can presume to compare ...
Flashback to 1970 ...
http://ultimateclassicrock.com/guess-who-american-woman-top-100-classic-rock-songs/
CW,
Never would have taken you for a fan of Elizabeth Warren. Heh. Couldn't resist. Seriously, though, if you want a strong CFPB, you should be voting Democratic. You do realize that, don't you?
Yea, that's the theory. But, by no means a guarantee...
I have had some issues with my bank recently. Seems they re-ordered the incoming transactions to generate more fees for the bank. I also have had issues where I made deposits based on what the online system was telling me and the information was wrong and more fees were generated..
I as curious to see if such re-ordering and false information was against banking laws. So I researched it and lo and behold, the CFPB *HAS* been investigating banks for just those issues..
Talk about being between a rock and a hard place!! :D
I had a comment whisked off to NNL...
Can ya check the filters??
Michale
OK, so Republicans were "hostage taking" during the government shutdown..
Now Democrats are pushing Republicans into another government shutdown as a means to increase their chances in the upcoming midterms..
In a manner of speaking, Democrats are "hiring" Republicans to do their (Democrat's) dirty work so as to take the blame for it..
Sounds to me that Democrats are MORE guilty of hostage taking...
"There's nothing worse than a dirty cop."
"Except the guy who hired him."
-Time Cop
So what do ya'all have to say for Democrats???
Don't tell me, let me guess..
The Ends Justifies The Means
:D
Michale
He was going to announce it over Labor Day weekend, but apparently that date's already slipped a week or two (this is from the rumor mill, don't know how true it is, I should mention).
The date has slipped because Obama and Democrats are planning to goad the Republicans into a government shutdown.
So, they want to move the announcement closer to that debate to have the maximum effect..
See my comment above...
Michale
Liz,
Well, that was a jaw-dropping public admission.
It was jaw-dropping in the sense that it was made at all...
You DON'T tell the enemy that you haven't a clue how to deal with them!!!
I had THOUGHT that not even OBAMA was THAT stoopid!!!
I mean, seriously...
I HOPE this is some sort of disinformation stunt for some secret military plan...
To come out and blatantly state how clueless and impotent one is???
It boggles the mind...
Michale
It was jaw-dropping in the sense that it was made at all...
Precisely.
Pulp Fiction is a disgusting combination of extreme violence, vulgar dialogue, super freaky sex, and death-defying drug use with a little old testament gobbledygook all chopped up in the kitchen blender.
And here I thought I wouldn't like it!! :D
but I think I'd have liked it better w/o space alien Travolta.
I actually thought BATTLEFIELD EARTH wasn't too bad... But then again, I thought THE POSTMAN was an awesomely EPIC pic.. :D No accounting for taste, eh? :D
and I liked Bruce Willis better than anything else I've ever seen him in.
Bruce Willis will forever be John McClane, but I also have a sneaky admiration for Corbin Dallas and The Jackal.. :D
Michale