Onward To 2016!
With one week to go until the 2014 midterm elections, almost all of the punditocracy world is absolutely chomping at the bit for this cycle to already be over, so they can concentrate on the much-more-fun 2016 presidential election season. This is pretty obvious, with some media now swooning over Jeb Bush's possible candidacy and the Clintons out stumping for other Democrats (and being covered more in the news than the actual candidates).
This is because the punditocracy knows full well that the outcome of the upcoming election isn't going to matter all that much, in the grand scheme of things. Also, they know the public's pretty bored with midterms in general, and more than a little disgusted with Washington as a whole. Whether Harry Reid or Mitch McConnell is running the Senate, not a whole lot is expected to get done in the next two years. It'll either be stories of "House passes Republican bill, Senate passes Democratic bill, no compromise seen possible," or it'll be "Senate Democrats filibuster Republican House bill on floor, no compromise seen possible," or perhaps "Obama vetoes his 119th bill this year, no compromise seen possible." In terms of real-world outcomes, there is not a whole lot of difference between any of those, but those are really the only three possible results. This means that Washington might as well just shut down and go home for the next two years, and it also means the most exciting political storylines are going to come from the next presidential election.
Since everyone else seems to be doing it, since I had to post something before watching the sixth game of the World Series, and (most importantly) since it's the week before Hallowe'en, I thought I'd peer into my pundit's magic crystal ball for a prediction on what the storylines will be for the next year or so (through the end of primary season, at any rate) out on the 2016 campaign trail. I'll still (of course) be doing my annual spooktacular "nightmares for both sides" bedtime stories this Friday, but I thought I'd be just a wee bit more realistic (while still keeping tongue firmly in cheek), and take a crack at predicting the flow of storylines for the two upcoming nomination races. I may not get them all right (I may not get any of them right!), but I'd be willing to bet that I'll get more right than not. So, for those of you tired of 2014 already and who want a peek into the future, here's my guess for what the headlines will be during the two races, in rough chronological order (and in shorthand, because there are so many of them). Disagree? Let me know about it in the comments.
Democrats
Hillary Clinton is inevitable. All other Democrats would be fools to run, she's got the whole thing locked up already.
Hillary Clinton is the clear frontrunner, anyone else will have to fight even to get national name recognition in Hillary's shadow.
Hillary Clinton is a centrist. Just look at her husband's political record, and look at where she's been on progressive issues -- mostly a follower, not a leader.
Hillary Clinton is not a progressive. Several prominent progressives criticize Hillary's positions (or lack thereof) on a host of issues central to progressives' agenda.
Hillary Clinton is not a populist. Economic populism and solving the income and wealth gap is not part of who Hillary is. She is too close to Wall Street, big banks, and hedge fund managers, and is out-of-touch with the problems of Main Street.
Who else can the Democrats convince to run? There are quite a number of possible second-tier candidates who will likely mount campaigns in an effort to convince Hillary to name them her veep, when the time comes. But these candidates will not launch any frontal attacks on Clinton, because they're really shooting for the second spot on the ticket. Possible names: Martin O'Malley, one of the Castro brothers from Texas, Cory Booker, etc.
Hillary Clinton is inevitable. Nobody else can touch her. Her candidacy is an unstoppable freight train running downhill.
Lefties: "Oh, for the love of God, will anyone but Hillary please run?" Panic on the left edge, as Hillary says some nice things about hedge fund managers at a particularly inopportune moment.
Lefties: "Bernie Sanders? OK, well, I guess he'll do." Sanders officially announces as a Democratic candidate, promising to hold Hillary's feet to the populist fire.
Hillary moves slightly to the left. Realizing she's got to shore up the base, Hillary claims she was misunderstood about the hedge fund managers, and professes a new love for bringing back Glass-Steagall. She starts including income inequality in her stump speeches, but is vague about what she'd actually do about it.
Hillary has awkward moment on campaign trail. Not being anywhere near the natural politician her husband is, Hillary has a cringe-worthy moment trying to relate to an average voter on the campaign trail. Republicans pounce on it with glee.
Sexism rears its ugly head both on campaign trail and in media. Hillary criticized for how she looks by some "reporter" on national television. Too hot, not hot enough -- whatever the storyline, it'll be "Clinton has wardrobe malfunction" on one level or another. Sexism will also start to creep in from Republican candidates, as well.
Hillary is inevitable. Bernie Sanders is having lots of fun, but not drawing nearly enough actual voters to his message. Polling in Iowa, New Hampshire, and the other early states show clear double-digit lead for Hillary.
Hillary will be history-making campaign, first woman nominated to major party presidential ticket. This will be a recurring theme, all campaign long.
Bill says something funny while campaigning. Bubba won't be able to contain himself at some point, and let a knee-slapper rip. Democrats are delighted, and Republicans cry a river of crocodile tears over how faux-offended they are at Bill's joke. The media loves the whole fracas. Hillary takes Bill out to the woodshed, behind the scenes.
Hillary disagrees with Obama! This will also be a recurring theme, as Hillary paints herself as a "different sort of Democrat" than Barack Obama. She will have to walk a tightrope to do so, however, since whatever issues she chooses to differ on will anger at least part of the Democratic base. Still, watch for this to be a major story at least a few times during the campaign. It's pretty much inevitable.
Hillary makes her 2008 dream come true, and actually does lock up the Democratic nomination on Super Tuesday, and the rest of the primary season is precisely the easy ride she expected back then.
Republicans
The clown car enters center ring! Its door opens, under the spotlights...
Everybody decides to run! The field is flooded with candidates as all of the following decide to throw their hat into the ring: Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, Chris Christie, Jeb Bush, Paul Ryan, Mike Huckabee, Rick Santorum, Bobby Jindal, Scott Walker, Dr. Ben Carson, Marco Rubio, Rick Perry, Mike Pence, Rob Portman, Mitch Daniels, Carly Fiorina, John Kasich, and Donald Trump (but nobody takes him seriously, it should be added). Condoleezza Rice is begged to run, but wisely declines. Joe Scarborough thinks people are begging him to run, but he is mistaken. Sarah Palin announces a $199.95 "Election Coverage Dontcha Know" pay-per-view package, which features round-the-clock commentary by her whole family.
Will the Tea Party get their favorite candidate elected? The whole Tea Party / Establishment Republican civil war will be endlessly debated. Within each faction, the infighting will be brutal, as several vie for the "favorite" title.
Centrists from the Establishment wing pick their preferred candidate, who will go on to get no actual votes (think: Jon Huntsman). They will choose either Rob Portman, Mitch Daniels, or John Kasich, most likely.
Whichever candidate the Establishment chooses, the inside-the-Beltway crowd falls all over themselves to anoint this person as the inevitable Republican candidate for the nomination, since it is so patently obvious that he would be the best candidate for the general election. Immediately afterwards, the chosen candidate will sink in the polls, never to be heard from again.
The cage match in Iowa begins early. Fierce fighting over the straw poll is worth a month of stories, alone. The more extreme candidates all but move their entire operation to Iowa in the hopes of wowing the conservative Tea Party base.
Such fierce infighting in Iowa spills over the rest of the campaign, as the extremists force every other candidate far to the right. More moderate Republicans will try to out-do each other in staking out ever-more-radical positions. This will be a continuing and recurring theme throughout the Republican primary season.
The big money goes to both Chris Christie and Jeb Bush. The biggest bankrollers in the Republican Party line up behind the two candidates who would actually have a decent shot in the general election -- if they can only survive the primary cage match.
Rand Paul shakes the whole field up with some libertarian, out-of-the-mainstream-Republican position. The media focuses intently on one statement Paul makes during a speech, and begins pressing the rest of the GOP candidates to respond. Vitriol is heaped on Paul from all and sundry, but Paul's standings in the polls are not affected. Paul is holding around 15-20 percent steadily in the polls, and will continue to do so throughout the entire campaign -- never falling below this floor, but never climbing above this ceiling, either.
Everyone leads the race! Because there are simply so many choices in the field, no Republican can break 25 percent in the polls. One will rise, then fall back a bit as a new flavor-of-the-month appears. The "frontrunner" position will be held by numerous candidates in turn, each of whom will eventually falter in the spotlight and give way to the next guy (or gal) in line.
A side-race develops between Mike Huckabee, Rick Santorum, Ted Cruz, Rick Perry, and Bobby Jindal for what might be called the "theocratic vote." Christian evangelicals are courted, and the candidates all try to top each other on who can be more biblical on social issues.
Even despite this smaller fracas, what is notable is how seldom gay marriage is mentioned by any of the Republican candidates. Stock responses will become: "I don't agree with the courts, but it's a settled issue," or "we've got bigger battles to fight," or "until we can pass a constitutional amendment, there's not much that can be done."
The first debate has 18 candidates on the stage. As a result, each candidate will get less than five minutes to speak. The public will not be impressed by the fiasco.
One candidate will attempt to make a name for himself by stating that he will be leading the push for the official Republican position on abortion to become an absolute: none, ever -- with no exceptions for rape, incest, or the health of the mother. The other candidates will be so frightened by this that they will all agree with it.
There will also be, during the early debates, an absolute stampede to the right on immigration and disparaging Latinos. Candidates with previously moderate positions on the issue (Bush, Rubio) will be the ones leading this stampede, in a desperate effort to rebut their previous positions. Bush will state that he didn't know his wife was a Latino when he married her (well, OK, that last one is a bit far-fetched, even I have to admit).
All Republicans will claim the economy is getting better because Wall Street heard they were running for president, and so the economic good news is all to their personal credit.
In the eighth debate, one candidate proposes resurrecting literacy tests for voting. No other candidate on the stage is brave enough to disagree, and all agree that it would be a fine idea for voting citizens to be well-educated. No candidate will publicly admit there is any sort of history attached to this, proclaiming "these are different literacy tests than the old ones!"
All Republican candidates will largely agree that everything that is good with Obamacare will continue, but that all the bad parts will be repealed. They will universally proclaim that this will happen because all the good stuff will magically pay for itself. None will ever answer any question that presupposes otherwise.
The 12th debate will only have 14 candidates on the stage, and some will only get 30 seconds to speak.
During this debate, the candidates will vie for who promises to cut Social Security more, although every single one of them will speak of such deep cuts as "saving Social Security."
Finally, Iowa and New Hampshire will vote, and each state will push four candidates forward. Between the two states, however, only two will overlap, leaving six who can claim some sort of "frontrunner" status.
It will be revealed that four or five of the Republican candidates are being essentially financed by a single billionaire donor each. This "battle of the billionaires" will eventually be shown to be meaningless, as the candidates chosen for such largess will all flame out in one way or another on the campaign trail.
South Carolina and Nevada will vote, but the number of frontrunners will actually increase.
The 15th debate has only eight candidates on stage. Finally, candidates get more than a single question each.
Former president George W. Bush will not be invited to campaign with any candidate, even his brother.
From Super Tuesday onwards, the attrition rate will become brutal, as the money dries up for multiple candidates (whether financed by traditional means or by a single billionaire who decides to cut his losses). The field is finally whittled down to three.
Unfortunately for the Tea Party, two of the three will be hardcore Tea Partiers, which serves to split the remaining states' votes.
The most well-financed of all the Republican field, Jeb Bush eventually becomes the nominee after "the most brutal primary season in the party's history," but (unfortunately for him) he will have been forced at that point to take several positions best described as "to the right of Attila the Hun." He will begin furiously tacking back to the center in preparation for the general election season.
-- Chris Weigant
Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant
I know, I know...
The Democrat Thumpin' that's about to happen is too painful to bear..
Better to simply ignore it and think about a possibly better time of it in 2016... :D
Michale
Here is something to consider while ya'all wistfully fantisize about 2016...
If the GOP turns this country around and brings this country back from the brink that Demcorats have been trying so desperately to push this country over....
2016 might just be another banner year for the GOP.... :D
Yea, I know.. I know... I should piss all over ya'all's parade... :D
Michale
Yea, I know.. I know... I should piss all over ya'all's parade... :D
Freudian slip??
That should read : Yea, I know.. I know... I shouldn't piss all over ya'all's parade... :D
My bust
Michale
The problem here is that the Democrat Party has lost the Black vote...
youtube.com/watch?v=BUSRZo1BE5o
And they are well on their way to losing the Hispanic vote...
washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2014/10/28/hispanics-on-a-gop-senate-sure-why-not/
It's not too difficult to postulate a scenario where an international crisis will spark after the mid-terms.. A crisis of such magnitude that Obama will be forced to postpone and likely cancel the Amnesty For Criminals push...
If this likely scenario comes to pass, Democrats will be an endangered species in government after the 2016 elections..
Michale
Before commenting on this column, I'd like to congratulate Chris "Damn the probabilities full speed ahead" Weigant on being substantially ahead of the media pack with regards Kentucky, Georgia and Alaska.
I think Onwards to 2016: The Democrats is going to look uncanny, but that's the easy one.
For the Republicans, I predict headlines for the early "debates" are going to reflect the "one question per candidate" format. Smart candidates (or trainable and well coached candidates) are going to anticipate the pitch and try and knock it out of the park, Newt Style. At least one or two otherwise marginal candidates will pull it off, resulting in headlines roughly along the lines of "Candidate X surges to unexpected lead following successful debate." Followed by more headlines featuring an influx of millions cash to candidate X from Sheldon Adelson, or some other mogul with money to burn. These one hit wonder debaters will percolate for a few weeks, muddying the waters to the detriment of candidates like Christie, Bush or Romney.
Before commenting on this column, I'd like to congratulate Chris "Damn the probabilities full speed ahead" Weigant on being substantially ahead of the media pack with regards Kentucky, Georgia and Alaska.
Yet, Democrats are still going to lose. :D And I am willing to wager that..
You?? :D
For the Republicans, I predict headlines for the early "debates" are going to reflect the "one question per candidate" format.
The problem with your "predictions" is that they are based on "wish-casting" and ideology rather than reality...
The GOP is going to be in a really good position to get things done...
Add to that the fact that the GOP doesn't need a Supermajority to be effective, as Democrats do...
All these factors, plus Obama's well-known and well-acknowledge propensity to be completely and utterly incompetent.....
Well, I can't see how ANYONE can say 2016 will belong to Democrats...
Followed by more headlines featuring an influx of millions cash to candidate X from Sheldon Adelson, or some other mogul with money to burn.
Funny how ya'all go after the rich GOP'ers with such disdain, but always fail to mention the rich Democrats that do the same thing with Dem candidates..
Why is that???
As much as ya'all would like to believe it, it's the Demcorat Party who is the party of the rich, not the GOP....
On a completely un-related note.....
I just took the plunge and "upgraded" to Windows 8.. I never could see the logic in upgrading to a touch-screen based OS without having a touch-screen system. But talking with some knowledgeable people, I decided to see what it's like...
So far, it's not too shabby... Not nearly as big of a change as I thought.. At least that's my initial impressions..
Anyone else recently take the plunge??
Michale
How Reid Doomed Democratic Senators
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2014/10/29/how_reid_doomed_democratic_senators_124483.html
Interesting take on how Reid, as much as Obama, has royally scrooed over Democrats running for re-election....
Can't argue with the logic...
Michale
M 1-4
Republicans are clear favorites, but I think you're a bit overconfident. Democrats are actually getting some good news from the polls, but it's just no where near enough to tilt the overall odds in their favor, or even get them into the 50:50 range. The central tendency of the NYT, 538 and HuffPO is vibrating near 60:40 on any given day, advantage Republicans. Even WAPO is giving the Dems a 6% chance! But, WAPO is essentially putting a lot of faith in who is ahead in individual state polls. That approach leaves no genuinely competitive states at all. That seems highly risky to me.
Assuming 7-10 competitive races, there are still a lot of plausible paths to Democrats holding the senate. I think CW has described these paths quite well. At least one path involves a runoff election. There are also a lot of "icebergs" threatening polling outfits, who still can't adequately cope with the rise of smart phones. Or demographics and ground games.
According to my analysis, the Big 4 don't seem to be calling this cycle as a "wave election." They seem to be treating the individual states as behaving very independently. If they are wrong, my models suggest Democrats are in a substantially better position than they think: maybe as high as 55:45 advantage Republicans.
As you've said many times we'll see...but just possibly well after election day.
M-6
I've been running W8 on one of my desktop machines for a long time. No problems, no clear advantage other than overall compatibility with other devices. MS will probably drop support for W7 as soon as they think they can get away with it.
I'm still looking for a good 8 bit loader so I can run my legacy version of Mathematica on a modern machine. I've got a dedicated old beast for that and a few other programs, running something pre XP! No internet, no updates, no malware. Downside, my office is very cluttered.
What I really really want for Christmas is a state of the art machine that can run some of the newest combat flight simulators! Planes with challenging handling and machine guns! Mig Alley was flawed greatness! Battle of Britain highly flawed near greatness.
Speaking of 2016...
"Don't let anybody tell you that, you know, it's corporations and businesses that create jobs."
-Hillary Clinton
That will go down in history as the STOOPIDIST comment ever uttered by a politician..
That ranks right up there on the stoopidity scale with Obama's "You have a successful business?? You didn't build that" stoopidity...
Do Leftist politicians have less brain cells than Right Wing politicians???
Michale
I've been running W8 on one of my desktop machines for a long time. No problems, no clear advantage other than overall compatibility with other devices. MS will probably drop support for W7 as soon as they think they can get away with it.
Yea, that's been one of my concerns...
The other one is I have been turning away customers who come in for FnRs with Win8.. More and more recently. That's $$$ that I am just letting walk out my shop... So I figured I better learn the damn OS...
I'm still looking for a good 8 bit loader so I can run my legacy version of Mathematica on a modern machine. I've got a dedicated old beast for that and a few other programs, running something pre XP! No internet, no updates, no malware. Downside, my office is very cluttered.
I have been wanting to pick up an AMIGA 1000 just for old time's sake...
Wife says no way until I clean my room.. :^(
What I really really want for Christmas is a state of the art machine that can run some of the newest combat flight simulators! Planes with challenging handling and machine guns! Mig Alley was flawed greatness! Battle of Britain highly flawed near greatness.
I never have time for games or simulations any more...
I just dusted off the old BATTLE STATIONS series on a slow day... Plus I have dove back in to the fun and excitement of killing 75+ million Russians in DEFCON.
Now THERE is an exciting game...
Michale
Plus I have dove back in to the fun and excitement of killing 75+ million Russians in DEFCON.
Now THERE is an exciting game...
At least for someone who has a "morbid desire to face the end of the world.."
:D
Michale
So....
Anyone wanna throw an ELECTION NIGHT/DEMOCRATS ARE GONNA GET CREAMED party on Tuesday night?? :D
Michale
Plus I have dove back in to the fun and excitement of killing 75+ million Russians in DEFCON.
Now THERE is an exciting game...
At least for someone who has a "morbid desire to face the end of the world.."
http://sjfm.us/temp/defcon1.jpg
"THAT'S IT!!! GAME OVER MAN!!!"
Corporal Hudson, ALIENS
:D
Michale
"the candidates will vie for who promises to cut Social Security more, although every single one of them will speak of such deep cuts as "saving Social Security.""
I hope that the Dems have learned their lesson on this subject, but I'm not optimistic. There is absolutely no upside to even talking to Republicans about "fixing" SS. The Republicans want to destroy it and they want the Dems to do their dirty work for them. The Dems should not collaborate with them. All that chained CPI talk was one of Obama's biggest mistakes.
The Republicans want to destroy it
yea, and they drink blood and pledge fealty to Lucifer too..
Gods, it's incredible that there really are such fanatics in the world...
Michale
Millennials Bolt Obama for GOP in Midterms
http://www.nationaljournal.com/politics/millennials-bolt-obama-for-gop-in-midterms-20141029
I just gotta ask...
How can so much promise in 2008 degenerate to so much animosity a measly 6 years later???
Michale
"Jeb Bush eventually becomes the nominee"
Clinton vs Bush is really depressing and it'll be brutal for that clan when the score is:
Clinton 2 Bush 0
Have they really thought this through? They should wait for George P. It's not their turn.
Clinton vs Bush is really depressing and it'll be brutal for that clan when the score is:
Clinton 2 Bush 0
What planet do you live on??
Here on planet Earth, the score is:
Clinton 1
Bush 2
Michale