Obama Should Wait (A Little) On Immigration Announcement
I don't want to deceive anyone by that headline, so allow me to explain its meaning up front. President Obama has the whole political universe holding its collective breath on when he's going to make his announcement of a change in immigration and deportation policy. News reports last week guessed that the announcement could come "as early as next week." Now that next week has become this week, everyone in Washington is expecting an announcement any moment.
Obama should wait, though. Not for long -- just for a few weeks. Obama should wait until just after Congress passes the next budget bill and puts it on his desk. Harry Reid has already called on the president to wait, and I have to say that I agree with him. The difference in timing of the next few weeks could have rather large consequences, not only for the president politically, but for America as a whole. It would be worth the wait of a few weeks to try and avoid the worst possible outcome over the budget. It may happen anyway, but the chance that it won't is worth taking, especially when it means merely a few weeks of waiting.
Republicans are already apoplectic over Obama's upcoming announcement, and they don't even know what he's going to announce yet. When he does actually unveil his new policy, it is guaranteed that Republicans will get even more upset. That's a given, really. The only question is precisely how ballistic they will go.
The Republican leadership is currently considering three options for the budget bill. The first, favored by the Establishment Republicans and most of the leadership, would be to pass a budget that carries us all the way to next October. The government would be funded until then, and the new Congress will still have the 2016 budget to fight over next year. Establishment Republicans prefer this because it would put the "government shutdown" idea off the table for a full year.
The next option would be to have a knock-down, drag-out budget fight in the next few weeks. This option is favored (no surprise) by the Tea Partiers. They want to use the budget bill to de-fund whatever Obama will soon be announcing on immigration reform. This could very easily lead to another standoff, and the government could shut down right before Christmas (Congress will reportedly have to act on the budget by December 11). The Tea Partiers feel justified in picking this fight now, much to the horror of the Republican leadership.
The third option would be some sort of compromise between the other two. A "continuing resolution" would pass to kick the budget deadline can down the road a few months. This punts the problem to the incoming Congress, and the outgoing Congress could all go home happily for the holidays. Then in February (most likely), the fight would start all over again. This may be the route Republicans actually take, since it is a compromise between their two factions.
The thing Obama should be considering is whether the timing of his immigration announcement could influence which option actually happens. Would it be more or less likely that the Tea Partiers stage a pre-Christmas battle if Obama announces his new policy this week? Would it be more or less likely that some sort of budget bill will pass before Christmas if Obama holds off for a few weeks?
To me, the answer is pretty obvious. It would improve chances of getting a budget bill done if Obama waits until afterwards to announce his new policy. Once again, there is no guarantee that waiting will produce a good outcome -- the Tea Partiers may work themselves into a frenzy just waiting for Obama's announcement. They're already doing so, and prolonging the wait might just cause Tea Partiers so much angst that they decide to pre-emptively strike against Obama's new policy -- even if it hasn't been announced yet. It's a real possibility.
Politically, it seems in Obama's best interest to wait, no matter what happens. If he waits and the Republican leadership succeeds in passing a budget for the whole of this fiscal year, then America gets some stability in the economy until next October. That would be a win for everyone, really. If Obama waits and the Republicans pass a budget bill only taking us into February or March, then Obama has that time to make his case to the country on his new policy. There'll be a big fight with the incoming Congress, but big fights with the incoming Congress are already pretty much of an inevitability anyway. If Obama waits, and the Republicans take us to the shutdown brink once again, then Obama can rightly say that Republicans can't get their act together even without the immigration issue in the mix. If things head over a cliff before the end of the year, it will expose the weakness of both John Boehner and Mitch McConnell in getting their caucuses to do the bare minimum of governing. Importantly, if we do reach such an impasse, Republicans won't have Obama's new immigration policy to blame, if it hasn't even been announced yet. Oh, sure, they'll try to blame Obama (they always do), but few people are going to listen.
I realize that Obama's immigration announcement is already long overdue. He promised to act this summer, and then punted to beyond the election, at congressional Democrats' request. His new promise was to act "by the end of the year" -- which doesn't have to mean this week. I have always assumed he will act close to either Thanksgiving or Christmas, to take advantage of the family-oriented holiday goodwill, which will help him make his case for not separating families. After the media reported last week that the announcement was imminent, it's been assumed that he will act before Thanksgiving. But I think Christmas is a better target to shoot for. The budget battle will likely take place during the first two weeks of December, and will likely be over by mid-month, one way or another.
We've waited this long, I think we can afford to wait another couple of weeks. It might not change anything -- it might not influence congressional Republicans in the slightest -- but there is a chance that it could. That chance is worth taking. This is why I would counsel President Obama to wait -- just a little bit longer -- to make his big immigration announcement.
-- Chris Weigant
Cross-posted at The Huffington Post
Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant
By advocating waiting, ya prove my point perfectly...
It's not about helping the downtrodden...
It's all about politics...
If the immigrant criminals TRULY needed and deserved help, then the election wouldn't matter one single bit..
If those people are REALLY deserving of aid and comfort, then Obama SHOULD have done it during the summer, like he promised..
The simple fact that Obama is waiting until the best POLITICAL moment proves beyond ANY doubt that it's not about altruism...
It's all about the Democrat Party partisan agenda...
PERIOD...
Michale
Michale,
Because you so often equate our silence with acquiescence, I am compelled to point out, for your information, that the US invasion of Iraq in 2003 was the complete opposite of success, any way you slice it.
Here's another FYI ... silence does not mean acquiescence. On the contrary, it only reflects an immense level of frustration with comments that are so far removed from reality that I, for one, will not waste time responding to them.
Forgive me, Michale, if you've already answered this but, what would be your approach to dealing with the millions of illegal immigrants who are living in the US now and who have been for a long time?
It sounds to me like your answer to this immigration problem is mass deportation. How would that work, exactly?
Just curious, if we see an executive order after budget, before Xmas, is there any play in D "surrogates" suggesting that we are accepting Christians/Catholics (most of the 11M undocs, using CW numbers).
Could be a strong play if done well and subtly, especially in the south.
Because you so often equate our silence with acquiescence, I am compelled to point out, for your information, that the US invasion of Iraq in 2003 was the complete opposite of success, any way you slice it.
History, and the facts, say different.
It's common knowledge amongst military circles that, after Bush's surge, Iraq was a smashing military success.
It's also common knowledge in those same circles that Obama made a HUGE blunder by leaving too soon..
Here's another FYI ... silence does not mean acquiescence. On the contrary, it only reflects an immense level of frustration with comments that are so far removed from reality that I, for one, will not waste time responding to them.
Yea, that's the common meme around here.. :D
But yet some comments do get debated when there is an argument to be made...
So, if ya'all have an argument for SOME of the comments, it's only logical to conclude that when some of my comments go un-responded-to it's because there is no argument...
"Simple logic"
-Spock, STAR TREK IV, The Voyage Home
:D
Forgive me, Michale, if you've already answered this but, what would be your approach to dealing with the millions of illegal immigrants who are living in the US now and who have been for a long time?
I am not sure.. Will have to think of that one..
But I know that the one thing that SHOULDN'T be done is to give them an All-Day E-Ticket to use up resources and take jobs that SHOULD go to American citizens...
Wouldn't you agree?? Obama agreed with me..
It sounds to me like your answer to this immigration problem is mass deportation.
I've heard of worse ideas... :D
How would that work, exactly?
It really wouldn't be that hard..
All it takes is the political will...
No country on the planet would allow such illegal immigration to stand.. Especially when the illegal immigrants are killing and raping so many American citizens.
Why should the US??
Michale
It sounds to me like your answer to this immigration problem is mass deportation.
It's worked before...
How Eisenhower solved illegal border crossings from Mexico
How Eisenhower solved illegal border crossings from Mexico
By John Dillin JULY 6, 2006
WASHINGTON — George W. Bush isn't the first Republican president to face a full-blown immigration crisis on the US-Mexican border.
Fifty-three years ago, when newly elected Dwight Eisenhower moved into the White House, America's southern frontier was as porous as a spaghetti sieve. As many as 3 million illegal migrants had walked and waded northward over a period of several years for jobs in California, Arizona, Texas, and points beyond.
President Eisenhower cut off this illegal traffic. He did it quickly and decisively with only 1,075 United States Border Patrol agents – less than one-tenth of today's force. The operation is still highly praised among veterans of the Border Patrol.
http://www.csmonitor.com/2006/0706/p09s01-coop.html
All it takes is to develop the mindset that the health and safety of American citizens is a bigger priority than the immigrant criminals.. And take politics out of the equation..
Michale
But I know that the one thing that SHOULDN'T be done is to give them an All-Day E-Ticket to use up resources and take jobs that SHOULD go to American citizens...
Wouldn't you agree?? Obama agreed with me..
I mean, seriously. Isn't that JOB #1 of a government?? To take care of it's citizens first and foremost??
Apologies if this is one of those questions that " that are so far removed from reality"
:D
What you call "removed from reality" is usually nothing more than common sense that is undeniable and therefore, unadressable...
Michale
Michale,
If what you say about the thinking in military circles is true (and I think that's a pretty big IF) then it's really amazing how those in military circles can be so easily self-deluded. And, it's that kind of delusion that doesn't bode well for the success of current and future US military adventures.
Apologies if this is one of those questions that " that are so far removed from reality"
Well, that has become pretty much a given ... :(
But I know that the one thing that SHOULDN'T be done is to give them an All-Day E-Ticket to use up resources and take jobs that SHOULD go to American citizens...
It's easy for you to say what shouldn't be done, on any given issue. But, a serious discussion will remain elusive until you come up with serious proposals about what SHOULD be done.
If what you say about the thinking in military circles is true (and I think that's a pretty big IF) then it's really amazing how those in military circles can be so easily self-deluded.
Yet the ONLY counter to the fact is what POLITICAL leaders are saying...
And it's easy to point out that POLITICAL (so-called) leaders are the epitome of delusional beliefs..
One only has to remember the run-up to the Great Nuclear Shellacking Of 2014 to know this is true..
Well, that has become pretty much a given ... :(
I am sure, by ya'all's reckoning, this is true..
But I would be happy to list all the common-sense points that I have made that no one can address...
How much time ya got?? :D
Michale
I'm all out of time for that kind of nonsense, Michale. :)
I'm all out of time for that kind of nonsense, Michale. :)
"Allllllll righty then"
-Ace Ventura
"There are none so blind as those who will not see"
-John Heywood, 1546
:D
Michale
Indeed.
Indeed, indeed.... :D
Michale
Here's one of those common sense observations that ya'all think are "nonsense"...
For years, ya'all have vilified health insurance companies and for the last couple years ya have sung the praises of TrainWreckCare...
And then we come to find out that Obama and those same healthcare insurance companies have been in bed together, conspiring to give the companies TRILLION dollar profits in the form of OBAMACARE...
Health Care Law Recasts Insurers as Obama Allies
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/18/us/politics/health-law-turns-obama-and-insurers-into-allies.html
Ya'all can ridicule me all you want, go on and on about how I spout nonsense...
But at least *I* have been consistent and true to my principles...
With ya'all's unwavering and undying devotion to Obama, ya'all cannot make the same claim...
Think about it...
Michale
Something else for ya'all to think about...
The American people have stated unequivocally that they are overwhelmingly against Amnesty For Immigrant Criminals...
The American people have SHOWN that they are overwhelmingly against Immigrant For Immigrant Criminals by totally decimating the Democrat Party in the Great Nuclear Shellacking Of 2014....
If Obama insists on going against the will of the people and the Republicans FIGHT that with the powers that they have....
WHO do you think is going to get the blame??
The Republicans who are fighting FOR what the American people want???
Or the Demcorats who are going AGAINST the wishes of the American people..
Democrats will get the blame for ANYTHING that happens..
It's not rocket science, people... If Democrats insist on being AGAINST the American people...
The Democrat Party will get the blame for any consequences...
It's that simple...
Michale
Michale [1] -
I actually wanted him to do it last summer, for a (possibly) similar reason. I thought it should be hashed out in the election. Congress wouldn't act (the House, at least), so I thought it was an important issue all politicians should have taken a stand on. If Obama had acted when he promised, it would have been front-and-center in the election. This might not have helped Democrats but to my way of thinking, that's how the electoral process should play out. Call me an idealist if you will...
Some Senate Dems begged him not to, and Obama gave in to them. They all got beat anyhow, from what I can see. So Obama should have just gone ahead anyway.
LizM [3] -
Excellent point. You'll enjoy this article -- lots of GOPers can't answer this question, because they are scared of saying what they really think.
Speak2 [4] -
Yeah, my thinking was, Thanksgiving: "keeping families together," or Christmas: both "goodwill toward men," as well as Feliz Navidad."
Michale [5] -
"Smashing military success"? Um, yeah, OK... if you say so.
As for "deport them all," two questions. (1) How much do you think that's going to cost? Are we just adding those costs to the deficit, or what? (2) Why do you think so few Republicans are willing to advocate this, if it's such an obvious answer? Politics, maybe?
[7] -
Isn't that JOB #1 of a government?? To take care of it's citizens first and foremost??
You mean, like, "promote the general welfare"? Like make health insurance affordable for all?
Heh... couldn't resist.
If you really want to understand what our country stood for at its founding, re-read the Constitution, and note where it says "citizen" and where it says "person." Where it doesn't specify citizens, it is written for all persons in the US. That's why they specifically used two terms. You might be surprised at how little "citizen" is specified, especially in the Bill of Rights.
Michale [16] -
Lefties all along have said that Obamacare was NOT "nationalized health" or "government taking over the health care market." Glad you read an article that showed you the light. Lefties were annoyed that there was no public option, and that it was essentially Romneycare -- a plan proposed by a right-wing think tank back in the 90s to boost health insurance company profits.
In other words, we've been telling you this all along. While the conservatives scream about "government takeover"... which is laughable, now that you've read that article, right?
And it's not "trillion dollar profits" it's $2 trillion of subsidies. There's a difference.
-CW
Some Senate Dems begged him not to, and Obama gave in to them. They all got beat anyhow, from what I can see. So Obama should have just gone ahead anyway.
I wasn't impugning your integrity at all. Like I have said before, I am sure that ya'all are sincere..
My only point was the fact that Obama waited until after the election PROVES that he doesn't care about the plight of the illegal immigrants..
For Obama and the Democrats, it's all about politics and remaining in power.
You mean, like, "promote the general welfare"? Like make health insurance affordable for all?
That's a stretch... :D
It says PROMOTE the general welfare. Not INSURE the general welfare...
It's like "the pursuit of happiness".. The Declaration Of Independence doesn't insure that everyone WILL be happy.. It simply guarantees that everyone is free to PURSUE happiness...
In other words, we've been telling you this all along. While the conservatives scream about "government takeover"... which is laughable, now that you've read that article, right?
So, if ya'all think that health insurance companies are the epitome of evil and that TrainWreckCare is nothing but a huge profit for the health insurance companies, the you MUST believe that TrainWreckCare is the epitome of evil..
QED
But, because it's "OBAMA"care, ya'all support it.. Even if it's the anti-thesis of all you believe in...
THAT's my point... THAT has been my point all along..
Michale
My only point was the fact that Obama waited until after the election PROVES that he doesn't care about the plight of the illegal immigrants..
"If you gave an order that Santiago wasn't to be touched and your orders are always followed, why would he be in any danger? Why would it be necessary to transfer him off the base???"
If the plight of illegal immigrants is so dire and they are so deserving of relief, why did Obama wait until after the election??? Why was it necessary to delay such needed relief??
"The fact is, there was no transfer order. Santiago wasn't going anywhere, isn't that right, Colonel?"
The fact is, Obama doesn't give a rat's ass about the plight of the illegal immigrant. He just wants millions of freshly minted Democrat voters...
My logic is impeccable and indisputable...
Michale
It says PROMOTE the general welfare. Not INSURE the general welfare...
No pun intended... :D
Michale
CW-
I disagree.
This effort to time the announcement is feeling like me trying to time a one-time purchase on the stock market -- "if I wait just one more week..." -- only to find the opportunity still isn't quite as good as it could be.
It stretches credulity to think the WH doesn't know what they're going to announce. They've had months to prepare courtesy of the midterms deferment. Tweak a adjective, round a number, but, really, by now it's ready or it never will be.
At some point, the tactical political calculus needs to stop and leadership to a new policy plateau begin. If it's the right thing to do, then do it. If it's not, then don't.
Too often what the Obama presidency could have been has been lost in either too careful posturing or an apparent lack of conviction. 90% of the time, I admire and approve the deliberate and pragmatic nature of this WH, but on this matter, it's about doing the right thing, not about when it's convenient.
No more waiting. Pres. Obama should announce the immigration EO now and then stand behind it.
If it's the right thing to do, then do it. If it's not, then don't.
Well said...
Which is the point I have been making...
Michale