It's A Long, Long Way To Tipperary
Greetings from Ireland!
Sure and it's a long, long way to Tipperary, as they say. How long? I really have no idea, since it's not on our itinerary this trip. Finding the answer might be something worthwhile to do on my next trip, I suppose.
Wry attempts at humor aside, here's a quick rundown of our trip so far. Oh, and before I begin: this, it should be obvious, is not going to be the usual sort of column here at CW.com, since it's not going to have anything to do with American politics at all. Well, OK, there is one Biden gaffe to mention, but aside from that.... Anyway, you have all been warned -- skip this article altogether, if travelogues aren't your cup of tea.
My wife being Irish, we occasionally visit the Emerald Isle to see family and whatnot. I should mention that my wife is now a dual American and Irish citizen, but isn't "Irish-American" in the way that phrase is normally used in places like Boston and New York City. Her ancestors didn't move over from the Ould Country, she did. She was born and raised in Dublin (Southside, for those that know what that means), and thus doesn't have a "looking up the family tree" set of relatives here, but rather her immediate family from her childhood.
We've been to visit Ireland before, both in summertime and for Christmas (and, strangely enough, for Thanksgiving... Americans don't realize it much, but outside our own country, Canada is the only other country to celebrate Thanksgiving -- and they can't even manage to get the date for it right). Ahem, where was I? Boy, all this writing raises a powerful thirst. I believe I'll repair to the kitchen for a wee moment to refresh my glass of Sir Arthur's fine product (yes, Guinness Draught is available here in cans, too).
Ahhh... that's better.
So anyway, this year we decided it'd be fun to do something different, by arriving to see Saint Patrick's Day in Dublin. This quintessential Irish holiday is a very big deal here, as it is not just an excuse to put on a silly hat and drink a lot, it is in fact their biggest national holiday. It's akin to July Fourth for Americans, to put it another way. Most everyone gets the day off work, for instance. However, there is no green beer. Ask any Irishman, and he would be shocked at the very concept: "Why would you go turnin' perfectly good beer green then, Yank?" Heh. Sorry if it's disappointing to the American audience; but just as there are no fortune cookies in China, there is no green beer here -- it's a purely American creation. Also, a further important note for Americans visiting on Paddy's Day: the concept of pinching people because they're not wearing green is unheard of here. You have been duly warned, and when that bird at the pub slaps your face as a direct result of not understanding this, it won't be my fault.
We didn't get up early to see the parade, because the Irish are more sensible about such things and don't schedule them for the crack of dawn, but rather at a civilized hour such as noon. So we had plenty of time to get ready and walk down to the parade route. The rain, mercifully, ended right before we left the house so the experience of watching the parade was a bit cold (at least for a Californian like meself) but dry. The parade itself wasn't all that big a deal until very recently (the last decade or two), as it was also largely an American invention (there aren't too many high school marching bands in Europe, to put this another way). But after years of American tourists coming over from Boston and Chicago and New York City -- who were all massively disappointed to find out that their hometown's Paddy's Day parade was actually bigger than Dublin's -- the Irish finally relented and decided to put on their own big Paddy's Day show. After all, there's a pot o' gold to be had when those Yank tourists open their wallets and purses!
What I personally found surprising is that the Irish have also now largely embraced silly Paddy's Day costumes and hats and all the other ridiculous green geegaws. Again, this is a fairly recent thing from what I hear from the natives, but while Americans all know the silly hats I'm talking about (see: "frat party" and "St. Patrick's Day," for examples), I thought the Irish would be a bit disdainful of such things. I was wrong. Here is what I was given to wear to the parade, in case you haven't seen this photo yet. [And my apologies that this is the only photo in this article, I'm having technical difficulties and may post other photos when I get back home.]
The parade grounds were packed, as throngs of people lined the entire route. Whoever did the tech for the parade is to be commended, because there were also big video screens for everyone who couldn't see directly, and they had tied them directly into one of the traffic cameras in the immediate vicinity, so you got an image of whatever was passing right in front of you (instead of blocks away from where you were) -- a very simple thing, yet whoever came up with the idea deserves a raise (or, as they say here "a rise in pay"). The parade itself was great, very Irish in nature, but also with a few lucky American marching bands who got invited to join in to add the proper parade flavor for us Yank tourists. Americans weren't the only ones here to join in on the fun, as I heard at least six or seven other languages being spoken in the streets, some of which I couldn't even identify. On this one special day, everyone is Irish!
The rest of the day was a blur, but a good time was definitely had by all. That much, at least, I remember. Well, for all except possibly Joe Biden. While the story didn't garner a lot of attention in America, Biden was hosting a breakfast in America (not to get all Supertrampy here or anything) for the Irish Taoiseach (prime minister) and his wife. Biden decided to lighten things up with a joke: "If you're wearing orange, you're not welcome in here." The whole green / orange thing is so fraught with historical bad blood that it'd be impossible to adequately explain here, but suffice it to say that many people in Northern Ireland were not amused. And to point out to everyone complaining about the "unprecedented polarization" in American politics -- these people are still sore over something that happened in 1690.
Moving along from Biden gaffes and Paddy's Day, later in the week (unbeknownst to us) they had scheduled a solar eclipse for our entertainment. We only got about 90 percent coverage (you had to go to obscure northern islands to see a total eclipse), but it was pretty impressive. It was cloudy in Dublin, but at the best part (about 9:30 in the morning), the clouds thinned just enough to see the tiny crescent the sun had become. But hey, that was better than in the Faroe Islands, where 10,000 people paid a lot of money to see totality and were entirely clouded in!
Saturday was an enormous sports day in Ireland, as it was the final day of the Six Nations rugby championship. For those not in the know, rugby is sort of a proto-football (or "American football" as you must say here, to differentiate it from soccer). It's kind of (but not really) football without the forward pass, and without the concept of "downs." The Six Nations championship, I have to say, is (at least when you have a knowledgeable relative sitting next to you to explain stuff) equally as exciting as watching a close Super Bowl. This is a round of games between (obviously) six nations: Ireland, Scotland, Wales, England, France, and Italy. Each country plays each other once in the tournament, which leads to a complicated way to figure the overall victor by adding up the point spreads of all the games. Since there were three games on the final day, nobody knew who was going to win the trophy. Wales started off the day by demolishing the Italians, meaning the Irish had to beat Scotland by 21 points or more -- a three-touchdown (or "try") lead, in other words. They went on to accomplish this in spectacular style, but England still had a chance if they could beat France by a wide enough margin. This last game went down to the final seconds (both the Irish and the English games were extremely exciting, I have to say), but France scored enough to deny England the point spread they needed, and Ireland emerged victorious. The Irish won the championship for the second year in a row -- something which hasn't happened in over a half a century. The next day, the women's rugby team also won their own Six Nations cup, meaning it was a total Irish sweep.
OK, it's getting pretty late so I'll wrap things up for now and perhaps do another of these later in the week (warning: I may not have enough time tomorrow to even post a re-run column). We'll be heading to London for a few days (to see other relatives) before we return home, and England is experiencing a rather bizarre national milestone of their own this week. King Richard III is getting buried. Or "reburied," after his bones were found under a parking lot a few years back (you just can't make this stuff up, folks). This weekend, the coffin's procession went to Bosworth Field, where he became the last British king to die in battle. Shakespeare famously wrote this scene with the line: "A horse, a horse, my kingdom for a horse!" but Shakespeare was quite likely doing nothing more than writing political propaganda to make the victors look a lot better (Richard III was the last Plantagenet ruler, and his death ended the Wars of the Roses). In fact, Richard III was painted as a monster who killed two small boys to grab the throne, but after reading Josephine Tey's The Daughter Of Time, I was convinced by her argument that Shakespeare's version is hogwash and nothing short of blatant historical revisionism, and that Richard III was actually a pretty decent king (and that his rival was the one who had the two boys killed). Anyway, he traveled back to the scene of his death this weekend (the ceremony was complete with full-dress knights in shining armor), and his reburial is set for this Thursday. It's not every day you get to see a royal funeral in Britain (indeed, there hasn't been one in my lifetime, as far as I know), and this one is especially unique considering this king died 530 years ago.
Back to Ireland, though. Today, we visited St. Michan's Church here in Dublin, where we saw historical remains of a different nature: mummies. Yep, actual mummies. In the crypt of this church (the oldest on the north side of the River Liffey, originally built in 1095), atmospheric conditions are unique due to the limestone used to construct it, the constant cool underground temperature, and the seepage of methane (the tour guide, I should note -- already knowing my wife was "former Irish / current Californian" -- asked her pointedly if she still pronounced the word "mee-thane" rather than the American "meth-ane"... I informed him she now also says "aluminum" rather than "aluminium" as well... but I digress...) through the soil. The conditions were just right to mummify some of the people buried there, and they've been on display for hundreds of years (for a modest entry fee). There are two women, one most likely a nun; and two males, one purported to be a Crusader (but who likely isn't quite as old as the myths claim -- the church's own site states "in fact he is only 650 years dead"). In any case, at the end of the tour you get a chance to personally touch a mummy's finger ("Shake the hand of the Crusader, for luck!"), which of course I had to do. If you're wondering, it felt like parchment.
For music lovers, St. Michan's Church is also likely the first place the notes of "The Messiah" were ever heard, on their pipe organ. George Frideric Handel is reputed to have practiced it here while writing it, before the first public performance (which happened elsewhere in Dublin, in 1742).
Afterwards, we repaired to the historic Jameson's distillery and again, events became rather hazy, for some reason. Tomorrow, we're off to see Belfast, the Titanic Museum, and the Giant's Causeway. Hey, now that I wrote about Ireland here, can I write this trip off as a business expense? Heh. Sorry, it must be time for another Guinness.
By way of wrapping this up, anyone wishing to have a great Irish experience should consider traveling here next year, since it will be the centennial of the "1916 Easter Uprising" that eventually led to independence from Britain, and will likely be a grand old time.
-- Chris Weigant
Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant
"felt like parchment"
What with all the liming and dessication going on the skin probably is a kind of parchment. Too small to write a declaration on, but it will make someone a fine souvenir if tourists keep pickin' at it. The methane reference may just be a 650 year old "pull me finger" joke.
While the knight couldn't have fought in any of the better sort of crusades, he was old enough to have fought in the Crusade of Alexandria (1390) or Crusade of Nicopolis (1396). He would have been a bit old for the Hussite Wars 1420-1431, but those were technically crusades, too, presumably waged against Hussies instead of Turks. Probably just a Brian Williams/Bill O'Riley sort of thing.
The methane reference may just be a 650 year old "pull me finger" joke.
"I don't care who you are, that right thar was funny as hell, I tell yoo what!!"
-Larry The Cable Guy
:D
Michale
St. Michan's Mummies
https://c2.staticflickr.com/8/7077/7170166793_ed18f98e76_b.jpg
History or indifferent housekeeping? You decide. As an indifferent housekeeper about to tackle The Spring Cleaning of the Garage I understand how this can happen. Things pile up, containers disintegrate. Any Weigantian need a slightly mummified Aerodyne Exercise Bike?
From the St. M's homepage:
"Please note that occasionally tours of the crypt are cancelled to accommodate religious services."
From Father Ted (pure genius sit com):
Dougal: I'm no good at judging the size of crowds Ted, but I'd say there's about seventeen million of them out there
No green beer? Why that's blasphemy that they don't try to foist off some really crappy beer on more people by dumping lots of food coloring in it!!!
Interesting how they've imported some of our traditions though, like parades and awesome hats and greenwear (love the pic btw! It makes me want to say "They're always after me Lucky Charms").
Glad you're having an awesome time in the Old Country.
-David.
p.s. Oh Joe Biden, you wacky guy you.
It sounds like you're having a great time! Enjoyed your description. I read Josephine Tey's book years ago and felt very sorry for Richard III after that.
Has there been any references to Terry Prachett's death?
Well, OK, there is one Biden gaffe to mention, but aside from that....
Shocking. Positively shocking.
TheStig -
Thanks for the link, great photo. The "Crusader" is in the back. In front (L-to-R), the nun, unidentified man with no feet and no right hand, and unidentified woman.
Both the Crusader and the middle guy had no feet visible. This was due to the standard size of coffins back then -- if you were too tall, they'd just lop your feet off and chuck them in under you (no "open casket" funerals back then, obviously).
The nun is said to be over 100 years old when she died. The missing hand on the guy could have been accident, disease, or punishment (stealing, very Medieval justice...). But nobody really knows. Could be he was a reformed criminal who became a priest or something, it is speculated.
The "Crusader" myth came about because the guy's legs are crossed. This was a common way to bury Crusaders (their own legs "making the sign of the Cross"), so the myth sprung up. However, normally Crusaders are buried with their ankles/shins crossed, and this guy's thighs were crossed. No weapon (Crusaders were buried with their swords, normally), either, but that could have been snuck off to the pawn shop (or the equivalent) a few centuries back.
The "Crusader" was like 6'6" tall, exceedingly unusual back then (normal height for males was probably around 5 feet -- bad diet in childhood, mostly). So the crossed legs could have been just getting him all to fit (even with his feet chopped off) into the coffin. Sorry to be so morbid, but that's the truth of it.
The vaults were tiny -- not too many of them at all. At first, the only ones buried there were nuns and priests, but later they sold crypts to those with the money. An Earl is buried there, as well as two Fenian rebels (brothers), from an earlier failed revolution (there were a LOT of those in Irish history).
But as for the "housekeeping," you're right -- they just stacked up the coffins in the crypts, higgledy-piggledy, and the older ones on the bottom would occasionally just disintegrate. The mummies were found when some of the older coffins wore out -- there were dozens of other coffins down there which could also contain mummies due to the special circumstances of the atmosphere down there.
OK, your Father Ted quote was hilarious! Anyone with access, I STRONGLY recommend this show, as it is the funniest take on religion in Ireland I've ever seen, bar none. This is laugh-out-loud-roll-around-on-the-carpet-my-ribs-are-aching funny, folks.
I got a T-shirt I'll post a photo of later, of the older priest and the word "DRINK!"... thought you'd appreciate that one.
akadjian -
OK, you win the prize for best caption! Heh...
Paula -
Yeah, someone gave me the Tey book, and I found it fascinating. It's one of a series of a British detective, but for the whole book he's laid up in the hospital (or, being British, I should say "in hospital"). So he digs into the Richard III mystery, following clues in old sources. Only book I've ever read that is a crossover between detective story and what historical research is like. Anyway, like I say, it's pretty convincing. Shakespeare was the original political "spin doctor"... or Joseph Goebbels, take your pick....
We got here too late for the Terry Pratchatt media stuff, I think.
LizM -
Hey, sorry, but I did give him a MIDOTW not too long ago...
:-)
-CW
Hmmm, ~ ~ can't tell if the light-hearted wit derives from the company you're keeping, or those [casual?] references to ale. In any case, do have a fine time; not that much happening back here unless you consider Ted Cruz's announcement to be "news"? Have a fine old time.
not that much happening back here unless you consider Ted Cruz's announcement to be "news"?
Of unless you consider the Obama Administration totally and unequivocally throwing Israel under the bus with the announcement that the White House will side with Palestinian terrorists against Israel at the UN...
Other than that... :^/
Michale
Democrats may be able to mint millions of fresh new Hispanic voters..
But they are going to lose the Jewish vote and lose it big time...
Michale
M-10
Don't confuse the AIPAC lobby with American Jewish voters. Netanyahu is underwater with respect to American Jews: roughly 30% according to most polls. A majority of American Jews are offended by Netanyahu's meddling in American politics - and are also offended by the notion of an apartheid Jewish State. Roughly 80% of the American Jewish demographic favors a nuclear arms agreement with Iran. Votes, campaign contributions, still not exactly the same thing in the United States.
"What happens if, as our critics propose, we just walk away from a plan that the rest of the world were to deem to be reasonable?"
-John Kerry..
Well, I dunno...
Give us a plan that the world deems "reasonable" and we can discuss it..
But the current plan is nothing but a path to a nuclear armed Iran...
Michale
TS,
Don't confuse the AIPAC lobby with American Jewish voters.
Oh I am not...
No Jewish American voter in their right mind would think that a Palestinian state is viable in the here and now..
I mean, seriously.. Look at it.. Look at what Obama is proposing..
Obama is proposing that Israel gives a physical state to a government whose mandate is to DESTROY the State Of Israel...
Now, you tell me...
What leader in their right mind would deem that to be acceptable??
Israel is not blocking the path to peace..
Netanyahu is not blocking the path to peace..
Palestinians who support terrorism and support the annihilation of the State Of Israel.....
THOSE are the people who are blocking the path to peace..
And THOSE are the people who Obama insists that Netanyahu makes peace with...
On what planet in the entire universe would that be reasonable???
If Obama sides with the terrorists against Israel in the UN, Democrats will lose the Jewish vote..
That's not an AIPAC talking point.
That is a simple fact...
Michale
The first episode of Father Ted, in its entirety, on YouTube.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eT9K0TAfiIQ
Best quote:
"What would you say to a cup of tea?"
"Feck off cup!"
The first episode of Father Ted, in its entirety, on YouTube.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eT9K0TAfiIQ
Not one for sitcoms since TWO AND A HALF MEN went to hell....
But I gotta admit. That's pretty funny.. :D
Michale
M-13
Some Jewish Voters already buy what you're selling, the majority don't. Anticipate little if any shift.
Great fundraiser for AIPAC to use on right wing evangelical donors. It's all about the fund raising, not the ballot box. That a simple fact.
Some Jewish Voters already buy what you're selling, the majority don't. Anticipate little if any shift.
It's not what "I'M selling"...
It's the facts..
Now, if what you are saying is that there are jewish voters who are buying the BS that Obama and the some Democrats are selling, then I would agree with you..
But that number is few and shrinking...
Why??
Because reality and the facts are staring them in the face...
And the facts are that the Palestinian government is a terrorist government (as designated by the US State Department) and no amount of spin will change the fact that Obama wants Israel to give a state to a terrorist government..
And no Jewish person, no AMERICAN would agree that THAT is a good thing...
"These are the facts. And they are indisputable."
-Captain Jack Ross, A FEW GOOD MEN
As an aside, I bet if one were to research it, they would discover that THAT movie quote is probably the most quoted here in Weigantia... :D
Michale
And in other news...
"Bowe Bergdahl, once missing U.S. soldier, charged with desertion
http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/checkpoint/wp/2015/03/25/bowe-bergdahl-once-missing-u-s-soldier-charged-with-desertion/?hpid=z1
Obama's White House is, once again, on the receiving end of an unmitigated and unequivocal PR disaster....
Once again, we are faced with the White House spin on one hand and reality and facts on the other...
Despite Obama's most fervent attempts to initiate undue command influence, facts and reality win out...
Michale
Obama's White House is, once again, on the receiving end of an unmitigated and unequivocal PR disaster....
As only Jon Stewart can tell it.. :D
A Magnificent, Complicated, Clouded, Controversial Story
http://thedailyshow.cc.com/videos/1jh7tu/a-magnificent--complicated--clouded--controversial-story
Let's face the facts people..
Obama tried to make the Berghdahl story a win to cover up some bonehead mistake..
And THAT became an even BIGGER bonehead mistake...
That's what comes from having an amateur as POTUS...
Michale
But as usual, I am open to being proven wrong...
Does anyone have any FACTS to show that the Palestinian government is not a terrorist organization??
Does anyone have any FACTS to show that the Palestinian government does not have a mandate that calls for the destruction of the State Of Israel??
"Anyone??? Anyone??? Buehler??"
{cchhhiiiirrrrrppppppp} {{chiirrrrppppppp}}
Michale
Michale -
Like other countries, Israel is a democracy. Thus, it has a full spectrum of views within it. There are hard righties, hard lefties, and moderates. The hard righties are ascendant right now, but keep in mind Likud won 30 seats -- 25% -- of the parliament. That means that 75% of Israeli voters didn't vote for them. Granted, some of those 75% voted for other rightwing parties, but Israel is not any sort of monolithic political society.
So why would you expect American Jews to be monolithic? My guess, if there's a shift in Jewish voting in 2016, it will be on the order of 5-10%, at best. That's a big shift, but it still would give the majority of the Jewish vote to Democrats. Many Jews are horrified at the GOP's stance on social issues here in America, and that's a bigger influence on their vote than posturing on Palestine.
-CW
TheStig [14] -
I don't use the word lightly, but Father Ted fits the description of downright subversive TV. When you think of the Irish audience it was pitched towards...
I loved the housekeeper character, in the background.
"Ah, g'wan, willya have a cuppa tea then? Ah, g'wan..."
-CW
LizM -
I'm surprised you didn't complain about that cheap shot on Canadians, re: Thanksgiving. Heh. I did wonder, when I wrote that, "What will LizM think?" But then I went ahead and wrote it anyway...
:-)
-CW
Chris,
When I read that, I just thought that I'm pretty sure that the Canadians have the date right.
But, by the time I read that, I was still recovering from another cheap shot on Biden. Ahem.
:-)
Chris,
For penance, I think you should write a column sometime on why Biden should be the next President of the United States. Heh.
I'd like to add a few comments to the good ones made by CW (21).
Israel is a democracy, but its governments are highly unstable coalitions that can collapse quickly and require new elections. Forming a coalition is a matter of wheeling and dealing in smoke filled rooms. Forecasting Israeli politics is very difficult.
A five to ten percent change in US Jewish voting patterns seems highly unlikely to me, but that's not politically very important. Jews make up 3% of the US population and 10%
key slip - moving right along....
of 3% is not going to shift national politics very much. The Republican/AIPAC/Netanyahu alliance is all about fund raising, especially bundled pack money. Increasingly, a lot of that PAC money comes from right wing evangelical Christians. Not all Jews wear beards, but some AIPAC Jews are Beards who bundle donations from those who wish to remain anonymous. All legal, if not exactly Kosher.
Israel faces multiple existential threats. They manage the military one pretty well. Israel faces a demographic threat that is much more intractable in the long run. Demographics is the Palestinian's best card. Economics is another genuine existential threat. The egalitarian Israel of the founders is long gone. Modern Israel is an oligarchy, 20 families own most of the economy, and 21% of Israeli's live below poverty line. Costs of living are high and climbing. When quality of life declines, more people emigrate, especially young talented people. Immigrants, especially young talented ones don't replace them. Relevance is another long term existential threat. If Israel doesn't reflect Jewish values (which transcend religious practice or lack thereof) than a US propped up Israel becomes a quasi 51st apartheid US state. An isolated state, diplomatically and economically isolated. Irrelevant and ultimately destined to wither.
It's pointless to emphasize just one at the expense of the others. That's Netanyahu's game, and it's politically expedient. It's not good leadership, but to be fair, most of Israeli society isn't doing all that much better. Good leaders are hard to find.
CW,
So why would you expect American Jews to be monolithic?
I am sure there are outliers.. But there is a common thread that all American jews hold dear and that is the love of Israel..
Any threat to Israel that is the fault of the US Administration (ANY US Administration) will cause American Jews to band together, much as the entirety of the US banded together in the aftermath of 9/11..
Let me turn your question around..
When the US sides with Palestinian terrorists AGAINST Israel at the UN, when the White House gives Palestinian terrorists the means to destroy Israel, when Obama hands Iran nuclear weapons on a silver platter......
How could you NOT expect American Jews to desert the Dem Party en-masse??
TS,
Israel is a democracy, but its governments are highly unstable coalitions that can collapse quickly and require new elections. Forming a coalition is a matter of wheeling and dealing in smoke filled rooms. Forecasting Israeli politics is very difficult.
And yet, I called it did I not?? It's not that difficult as you might think..
One just has to think logically and use a little common sense.. :D
Granted, it doesn't ALWAYS work out, but more often than not, it's dead on ballz accurate.. :D
It's pointless to emphasize just one at the expense of the others.
I can tell you why it's NOT pointless to emphasize one over the others..
As in the US, National Security trumps all considerations..
Because economic problems, demographic problems, social problems, all those problems disappear if your country is destroyed...
The overriding threat to Israel is a military threat...
Which is why the people of Israel overwhelmingly, by commission or omission, voted Netanyahu back into power...
Because Israelis realize that cost of living and economic problems pale considerably when one considers Tel Aviv or Haifa as a smoking nuclear crater...
But I'm curious...
Ya'all are ignoring the issue of Netanyahu's refusal to endorse a Two State solution in the here and now..
Is that because ya'all agree that it's ridiculous for Netanyahu to even CONSIDER such a solution??
Michale
And, in another YOU CAN'T MAKE THIS STUFF UP segment...
US Administration officials are complaining that Israel was spying on the LET'S GIVE IRAN NUCLEAR WEAPONS talks.
How does the US Administration know this??
Because the US Administration was spying on Israel!! :D
The chutzpah of the Obama Administration is mind-blowing...
Michale
M-(28) "I am sure there are outliers.. But there is a common thread that all American jews hold dear and that is the love of Israel.."
Change ALL to "69%" and LOVE to "very or somewhat attached to" and you arrive at one of those "facts" that you talk so much about.
Besides the topic "divinity of Jesus," the closest thing to consensus among authorities on Judaism (rabbis) is who is a Jew. Virtually all agree it's handed down thru the X chromosome. The State of Israel agrees with that. Move to other topics and consensus breaks down rather quickly, roughly along generational lines, and Orthodox, Conservative, Reform or Mostly Non-Observant status.
If you want empirical evidence of how much consensus there is among American Jews on the subject of Israel, wrangle yourself an invite to a sedar. It's not that hard, but make sure that at least 3 generations are represented, preferably more. Wait for the 4th cup of wine to go down. Compare and contrast the views Israel along the gradient from WWII generation thru the boomers to the college girl with pink hair and a tattoo of great grandmother's camp serial number on her forearm. Expect surprises.
A link to a summary of the poll numbers, which contains another much more detailed link.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/poll-american-jews-identifying-as-more-cultural-less-religious/2013/09/30/249ce2f4-29db-11e3-8ade-a1f23cda135e_story.html
Change ALL to "69%" and LOVE to "very or somewhat attached to" and you arrive at one of those "facts" that you talk so much about.
I disagree, but I readily concede my experiences are IN Israel (so I am extrapolating from that) and are somewhat dated..
However, having said that, even if we agree to the 70% (rounded up for clarity sake) that still means millions and millions and MILLIONS of voters leaving the Dem Party...
Put another way...
If 70% of American Jews vote GOP, I don't even think that the millions of fresh new minted Dem voters will save the Dem Party..
Agreed??
Michale
M-
Consider the history of the militant apartheid State of Sparta and the dangers of over emphasizing military threats vs other existential threats. Watching The 300 or other Hollywood epics does not count.
Also consider Judea post Hellenistic Occupation and subsequent acceptance of client status (by the Maccabees of all people) to an up and coming Rome. It did end well.
One thing I learned in flight school - you have to actively manage everything. Hyper focus on one hazard will get you killed just as surely as daydreaming. This applies to life in general.
Change ALL to "69%" and LOVE to "very or somewhat attached to" and you arrive at one of those "facts" that you talk so much about.
I am also constrained to point out that the poll question does not really address the point I am trying to make..
For example..
If you ask American Jews, "How attached are you to the State Of Israel??" it's reasonable that 69% would respond "very or somewhat"...
But if you ask a poll question closer to the point I am making, "How attached are you to the State Of Israel vis a vis seeing Israel overrun by terrorists or attacked by a nuclear armed Iran??" I would be willing to wager that the "very or somewhat" would approach 100%...
Wouldn't you agree??
Michale
Watching The 300 or other Hollywood epics does not count.
Awww crap!! :D
lso consider Judea post Hellenistic Occupation and subsequent acceptance of client status (by the Maccabees of all people) to an up and coming Rome. It did end well.
I see your point and it's a good one..
But I think the more accurate point is this..
If you are facing 2 armed assailants and one has a .357 in your face and the other has an M-16 Full Automatic with his back to you....
Which is the bigger threat??
For Israel, the terrorist/nuclear threat is the .357 in the face and the socio/economic/koom-bye-ya threat is the M-16 with his back turned...
Michale
Our child-POTUS at work... :^(
US Declassifies Document Revealing Israel's Nuclear Program
Obama revenge for Netanyahu's Congress talk? 1987 report on Israel's top secret nuclear program released in unprecedented move.
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/193175#.VRQt2fl4rXw
Please tell me again how there is no daylight between the Obama Administration and Israel??
In all the temper tantrums by our President, I seem to have forgotten..
Michale
One thing I learned in flight school - you have to actively manage everything. Hyper focus on one hazard will get you killed just as surely as daydreaming.
Using your example, the security issues facing Israel is the mountain you are about to crash into..
The social and economic issues are the landing gear that won't extend...
In several hours, that landing gear issue MIGHT be a real danger...
But the mountain in front of you is, by far, the much MUCH bigger threat...
If yer pulverized into the side of the mountain that will solve the landing gear issue most definitively...
Wouldn't you agree??
Michale
Watching The 300 or other Hollywood epics does not count.
What about MEET THE SPARTANS?? :D
Michale
M - 31
"that still means millions and millions and MILLIONS of voters leaving the Dem Party...
Whoa, whoa watch where you're pointing that rhetoric pal. Millions and million and millions of voters is at least 6 millon, which is more than all the registered Jewish voters in the United States.
M - 33
"But if you ask a poll question closer to the point I am making, "How attached are you to the State Of Israel vis a vis seeing Israel overrun by terrorists or attacked by a nuclear armed Iran??" I would be willing to wager that the "very or somewhat" would approach 100%..."
No disagreement on that. I think the equivalent question regarding Great Britain it would approach 100.% I think if you asked American Jews the equivalent for Germany it approach 75% - 85% if the you sample those under the age of 65. Almost no American likes to see a country overrun by terrorists or nuked. I mean really, the US went to aid of invaded France twice, and we don't even like the French very much.
M - 35, I've waiting for this one to rear it's puddin' head.
First, the release occurred in February, so it's not Revenge on Net-on-you-know-who.
Second, the material released is from a 25 year old OPEN SOURCE STUDY. In other words, all the material comes from unclassified sources freely available 25 yrs ago, it's just neatly edited and collated into one 129 page pdf. But the document released was classified you will say. That is so. Simply putting a lot of unclassified stuff in one one document can result in the synthesized documented being classified. SOunds crazy, but happens all the time in the grand ol' analysis biz. "It's like the transubstantiation of Christ Dougal. There's no rational explanation, no discernible change, you just have to stand in line and have faith." From - "A Few Good Priests," a never completed episode of Father Ted.
Third, Obama didn't release it. It was released as a result of a three year old freedom information lawsuit requesting information on Israeli nuclear technology. A three year lag is about par for the course.
Here is the sum total of info on the Israeli N bomb program. Have your notebooks and decoder rings ready.
"The SORBO and the Dimonal/Beer Shrva facilities are the equivalent of our Los Alamos. Lawrence Livermore and Oak Ridge National Laboratories. The
SOREQ center run the full nuclear gamut of activities from engineering, administration and non-destructive testing to electro-optics, pulsed power, processes, engineering and chemistry and nuclear research and safety. This is the technology required for weapons design and fabrication."
a few lines later
"As far as nuclear technology is concerned the Israelis are roughly where the US was in the fission weapon field in 1955 to 1960."
"It should be noted that the Israelis are developing the kind of codes which will enable
them to make hydrogen bombs. That is, codes which
detail fission and fusion processes on
microscopic and macroscopic levels. However,
it is doubtful they have the codes to
completely design such devices as the involve more
chaotic radiation transport and are
multidimensional. The Israelis do not yet have the
capability to carry out these kinds of
calculations."
All this was widely published in trade journals and even news magazines of the 1970s and 80s. It would be hard to rule against releasing this kind of stuff. It's like outing Jim Nabors in 2015, or noting your great aunt has hair on her upper lip. We know, we've known this since the '70s and '80s, even earlier...so now you have to go and bring this up.
Final fourth point. Much is made about the fact that NATO allies have been redacted in the release. Nothing sinister about it. The suit asked for info on Israel, not the allies. Why cheese 'em off?
All,in all, it's just more Foxy Boxing, lazy journalism, whipping up the reactionary base. Situation normal.
Whoa, whoa watch where you're pointing that rhetoric pal. Millions and million and millions of voters is at least 6 millon, which is more than all the registered Jewish voters in the United States.
Oh, come on... Next you'll be wanting to clarify what the definition of 'is' is..
No disagreement on that.
Well all right... Now we're getting some where..
First, the release occurred in February, so it's not Revenge on Net-on-you-know-who.
Uhhh.. It was also in Februrary that it was learned that Netanyahu was invited to speak to Congress..
The timing is so exact that there is no other conclusion save that it was a knee-jerk retaliation from Obama..
Third, Obama didn't release it. It was released as a result of a three year old freedom information lawsuit requesting information on Israeli nuclear technology. .
Yea?? The guy who requested and sued for the release was amazed that the US actually released it..
He said it was the first time that a US Administration has actually confirmed that Israel was a nuclear power..
A three year lag is about par for the course
Yea?? Prove it.. :D
ll,in all, it's just more Foxy Boxing, lazy journalism, whipping up the reactionary base. Situation normal.
Once again, it's amazing that there is always NOTHING to anything that comes out against Obama..
Millions and millions and millions of episodes of smoke, but NEVER a fire...
"Fascinating"...
-Spock
You can mitigate and equivocate and define the meaning of 'is' all you want..
But it's clear from the facts that this is nothing more than our petulant child-president throwing a tantrum because he couldn't get his way...
Michale
Millions and millions and millions of episodes of smoke, but NEVER a fire...
I mean, what are the odds of that actually happening??
Every scandal against the Obama Administration and NONE, not ONE SINGLE ONE of them has any merit whatsoever...
If we employ Occam's Razor, what is the more likely possibility??
1. That EVERY scandal to hit Obama and/or his administration is nothing but overblown partisan rhetoric and there is NEVER anything to ANY of them??
or
B. That those who always make the claim of 'overblown partisan rhetoric' are responding as politically ideological partisans and not as politically agnostic persons??
Employing Occam's Razor, the answer is clear...
Wouldn't you agree??
Michale
U.S. Caves to Key Iranian Demands as Nuke Deal Comes Together
http://freebeacon.com/national-security/u-s-caves-to-key-iranian-demands-as-nuke-deal-comes-together/
Interesting negotiating technique Obama has...
Give the Iranians everything they want...
What could POSSIBLY go wrong... :^/
Obama is so desperate for a deal to soothe his savaged ego, he'll throw the entire region into a nuclear tailspin...
Ya remember my reasoning for voting Democrat back in 2008???
"If they frack up, how much damage can they do??"
-Michale, Presidential Election 2008
Well, I guess I am finding out because he is doing the maximum amount of damage possible...
Michale
Ya'all are so concerned that there will be a war if this awful bad deal is not pushed thru...
If this deal goes thru, it all but guarantees that Israel, with Saudi Arabia's assistance, WILL attack Iran..
And THAT will lead to a full regional war...
Which is rather humorously ironic when ya look at it. Pushing this bad deal thru will ignite the very war that deal proponents claim the deal is designed to prevent..
In effect, deal proponents are supporting the instigation of the very war they claim to want to prevent..
All because no one has the testicular fortitude to stand up to Obama and say, "Dood.. Yer frakin' up.. Big time!!"
Michale
And in other news....
Harry Reid Says He Won’t Seek Re-Election
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/28/us/politics/senator-harry-reid-retire.html?smid=tw-bna&_r=1
Didn't you call that, CW??? :D
Michale
Credit where credit is due..
At least Reid called it far enough ahead of time to give his Party a chance to retain his seat...
That's honorable..
At least as "honorable" as a Party ideologue can be.. :D
Michale
Reid's retirement is a pretty solid indication that Democrats will not regain the Senate in 2016....
You heard it here first.. :D
Michale
Yea?? Prove it.. :D
http://www.foia.gov/data.html
over the period 2008-14 about 6% of moderate to complex DOD cases take longer that 400 days to process.
Some subdivisions of DOD take much longer...40% Defense Intelligence Agency cases take longer than 400 days. It seems likely the FOIA request in question went through DIA wicket...but we all know that DOD, being a govt agency knows no logic :)
Some cases take a lot longer to process than others. DIA has 10 cases unprocessed after 7 years.
Processing time doesn't mean the plaintiff wins. Appeals typically take months to many years, DIA taking the longest.
All in all, 3 years is nothing out of the ordinary, especially for requests involving intelligence
Fair enough. Point conceded...
All in all, 3 years is nothing out of the ordinary, especially for requests involving intelligence
But what IS out of the ordinary, what IS unheard of, what has NEVER happened is that a US Administration has confirmed the existence of Israel's Nuclear arsenal...
This coupled with the timing.... There is only one rational and logical explanation...
But I get it..
It's all just smoke.. No fire... {{wink, wink}} :D
Michale
But what IS out of the ordinary, what IS unheard of, what has NEVER happened is that a US Administration has confirmed the existence of Israel's Nuclear arsenal...
Should read:
But what IS out of the ordinary, what IS unheard of, what has NEVER happened is that a US Administration has PUBLICALLY confirmed the existence of Israel's Nuclear arsenal...
My bust...
Michale
Uhhh.. It was also in Februrary that it was learned that Netanyahu was invited to speak to Congress..
Oh I see, Obama was taking revenge on Congress (issuing the invite) and/or Netanyahu (for accepting it). Sort a preemptive strike. How dare you even intend to invite and/or speak. But, if Obama is trying to make those points, why was there no fanfare regarding the release? Nobody picked up on it until late March. That's like punishing the dog a week after he/she threatens to pee on the rug.
The other thing is that punishment is supposed to hurt. All the stuff in the report was 25 years old and well known. Israel has never denied it has nukes, it simply refuses to confirm or deny. It can still do this...and the Islamic states can still pretend or not pretend to notice. Nothing of substance has changed, just a confirmation that our intelligence agencies aren't clueless.
One more thing. I noticed the report was never even a classified document. Distribution was controlled, that was it. Very hard to make a case you can't release it.
Oh I see, Obama was taking revenge on Congress (issuing the invite) and/or Netanyahu (for accepting it)
Uh... Yea.. You don't recall all the vitriol coming from the White House when news of the invitation became public??
I am sure the backchannel chatter had Obama telling Netanyahu to refuse the invitation or else the US would publically confirm the existence of the Israeli nuclear arsenal..
Bibi told Obama to frak off and there you have it..
But I get it.. No fire.. Just a bunch of smoke...
As far as the Middle East??
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/saudi-arabia-says-it-wont-rule-out-building-nuclear-weapons-10139229.html
The MidEast Nuclear Arms Race begins...
Again, just a bunch of smoke....
Amazing that there is all this smoke and not one single Obama fire whatsoever...
Michale
Amazing that there is all this smoke and not one single Obama fire whatsoever...
Doubly amazing when one considers that, during the Bush years, it was ALWAYS fire.... Every bit of smoke was caused by a Bush fire...
Yet ALL this smoke and not one single Obama fire...
It's downright gabberflasting... :D
Michale
The other thing is that punishment is supposed to hurt.
It's a betrayal... You can bet that, for those in the Israeli government who count on the US discretion...
It hurt.. It hurt big time...
As for us on THIS side of the pond??
It's just one more indication that Obama is putting a LOT of daylight between his administration and Israel....
Michale
Doubly amazing when one considers that, during the Bush years, it was ALWAYS fire.... Every bit of smoke was caused by a Bush fire...
I mean, seriously...
Step back from the partisan divide for a brief moment and look at things logically and rationally...
Aren't the odds utterly astronomical that Bush would have done everything WRONG and Obama has done everything right??? So astronomical that they defy calculation??
So, either Obama is not as perfect as ya'all claim (and, conversely, Bush is not Satan-incarnate) or else we are living in a fantasy reality...
Once again.. Employing Occam's Razor, what's the more logical possibility??
Michale
For years, members of the Obama team have grappled with the chaotic aftermath of the Arab Spring. But of late they have been repeatedly caught off-guard, raising new questions about America’s ability to manage the dangerous region.
Obama officials were surprised earlier this month, for instance, when the Iraqi government joined with Iranian-backed militias to mount a sudden offensive aimed at freeing the city of Tikrit from the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant. Nor did they foresee the swift rise of the Iranian-backed rebels who toppled Yemen’s U.S.-friendly government and disrupted a crucial U.S. counterterrorism mission against Al Qaeda there.
http://www.politico.com/story/2015/03/barack-obama-yemen-isil-middle-east-116440.html
No matter how partisans will spin it, the Obama Administration has shown amazing incompetence in dealing with the region..
This is fact whether anyone here wants to admit it or not...
Michale
"Why was the phone busy, who were you calling?"
"The psychic hotline."
"I advise you to take this more seriously."
"Hey, this is public phone. What do you want me to say?"
"You can simply say that there was a fat woman on it and it took you a minute to get her off."
Do you understand???
Michale
Peaking of the Bush years, it looks like Dubya scooped Obama on the Israeli nuclear program. Twice!
Betrayal! Betrayal!
http://mediamatters.org/research/2015/03/27/conservative-medias-fantasy-that-obama-leaked-i/203074
Funny, can't remember hearing anything about it at the time from Fox or Rush or.....anybody. 'Cause Israeli nukes weren't news to anybody paying attention.
Looks like another trial balloon is losing pressure.
Media Matters???
What's next??
You'll be quoting HuffPoop???
How would YOU respond if I posted a FoxNews link trying to make a point, TS??
Probably in the exact same manner.. :D
The timing of the release is the damning evidence..
I know, I know.. It's not enough evidence for you...
But then again, NO AMOUNT of evidence is enough evidence....
So, what's the point??
Obama can do no wrong..
Democrats are pure as the driven snow...
Everything evil and bad in the world is Bush's and Republican's fault..
"...and so it goes and so it goes..."
-Billy Joel
Michale
Funny, can't remember hearing anything about it at the time from Fox or Rush or.....anybody. 'Cause Israeli nukes weren't news to anybody paying attention.
The fact that Israeli nukes were or were not news is not relevant to the point.
Yes, EVERYONE knows that Israeli's have nukes.. Former President Jimmy Carter made certain of that..
But the ambiguity is part and parcel to a stabilizing factor in the Middle East... It was part and parcel to OUR ALLIES policy..
And Obama just pissed all over our "allies" policy....
In other words, by word and deed, Obama has made it clear that he no longer views Israel as an ally... Obama has placed a buttload of daylight between Israel and the US...
I can't make it any more clear than that...
Michale
M-58
I'd look up the links and use the critical content reading skills I was taught in high school. Then I'd Google for a few other reference links and make a cup of coffee, cross reference and synthesize Then I would likely post a reply.
M-59
Israeli ambiguity aka opacity is just good public relations. It doesn't matter how many times they are outed, they can still decline to comment. Since outside sources disagree on details, all press reports appear more speculative than they really are.
That's the power of no comment. Let your critics argue with each other about petty details. Other middle eastern countries have little incentive to talk about Israel's nukes...why remind your citizens that you are technologically inferior? Clever psychology on Israel's part. Opacity IS a stabilizing factor, and the signature of a stable system is that when you push it, it goes back to the stable position.
Israeli ambiguity aka opacity is just good public relations. It doesn't matter how many times they are outed, they can still decline to comment. Since outside sources disagree on details, all press reports appear more speculative than they really are.
That's the power of no comment. Let your critics argue with each other about petty details. Other middle eastern countries have little incentive to talk about Israel's nukes...why remind your citizens that you are technologically inferior? Clever psychology on Israel's part. Opacity IS a stabilizing factor, and the signature of a stable system is that when you push it, it goes back to the stable position.
No disagreement...
But what does any of that have to do with the fact that, apparently, the US Administration policy is now to not support Israel's opacity??
You have yet to provide any evidence that Obama's policy has not shifted away from supporting Israel and moved towards supporting Israel's enemies...
The official disclosure of Israel as a nuclear power is simply one example in a plethora of examples..
That's been my point the entire discussion..
Michale
If you have any evidence that the Obama Administration is still supporting Israel.....
"I'm all ears...."
-Ross Perot, 1992 Presidential Debate
:D
Michale
M-61
"The official disclosure of Israel as a nuclear power is simply one example in a plethora of examples.."
Ah, the document released is not US policy. It is a US funded, non governmental think tank analysis that can support the formulation of US policy. Actually, more like a literature search than an analysis. The paper is 25 years out of date, open sourced and released after a nice soak in the Freedom of Information Act process. The latter is US law. The US has opacity capability too, and has always used it in matters of diplomacy...and pretty much everything else if they can get away with it. There is no opacity gap.
M -62
If you have any evidence that the Obama Administration is still supporting Israel.....
1/3 of US foreign aid goes to Israel. Technology transfer, trade agreements, access to oil supplies to name a few.
1/3 of US foreign aid goes to Israel. Technology transfer, trade agreements, access to oil supplies to name a few.
That's the US Government supporting Israel.. Treaties and agreements that Obama CAN'T change... Although I would be willing to wager a million quatloos that petulant child-President has told his people to research what he CAN change...
Do you have any evidence that the OBAMA ADMINISTRATION is supporting Israel??
Because, to date, all we see is Obama saying he is going to allow the UN to condemn Israel, etc etc etc... Just because Obama doesn't like Netanyahu and he doesn't like the fact that Obama's minions could sway the election against Bibi...
Michale
“If you hate the president of the United States more than you distrust the ayatollah, then you probably shouldn’t be in the United States Senate.”
-Martin O'Malley
Well, if you hate America's greatest ally in the Middle East more than you distrust the ayatollah, then you probably shouldn't be the President Of The United States....
I'm just sayin......
Michale
A previous generation had it's MUNICH AGREEMENT...
Our generation will have it's LAUSANNE AGREEMENT..
And, from all indications, it's likely that history will repeat itself...
Our current crop of (so-called) leaders obviously haven't learned from the mistakes of their predecessors..
Appeasing tyrants only emboldens tyrants...
Michale
Iran Wants More Nuke Concessions as Talks Hit Critical Stage
http://freebeacon.com/national-security/iran-wants-more-nuke-concessions-as-talks-hit-critical-stage/
Iran is realizing just how desperate Obama is for a deal...
Michale
It's pucker time!!
-NASA Official, ARMAGEDDON
What ya'all think??
Deal or No Deal??
I am not sure.. It's obvious to any political agnostic that Obama is desperate for a deal... I can see him saying, "Look, Ayatollah... I'll drop ALL the sanctions and personally deliver a dozen nukes to your front door if you just sign off on this deal!! Please!! I'm beggin' ya!!!"
So, this frog can jump either way...
I mean, Obama might surprise me and actually show a glimmer of testicular fortitude and walk away...
It could happen...
It's about noon in Lausanne, Switzerland right now. So I guess we'll know in about 12 hours by 1700hrs EDT...
Michale
I mean, Obama might surprise me and actually show a glimmer of testicular fortitude and walk away...
I mean, Obama could say to himself:
"Wait a tic... These guys I am trying to deal with EXECUTE people for being gay... These guys sponsor terrorism around the world that have killed THOUSANDS of innocent women, children and men.. These guys are scums of the earth... I don't want to deal with them!!!"
I mean, it could happen, right??
Obama could actually come to his senses??
Right???
Michale
M 68-69
As Spock would say... "interesting."
The US (and the rest of the West) are in the position of the consumer who has negotiated (haggled)a nice price on a brand new car. Consumer goes to pick up the car, carefully reads the agreement, and notices the salesperson has added $400 worth of undercoating and delivery charges to the bill. Reprehensible, but fully expected. It's an F'IN' CAR DEALERSHIP!!!!, with plastic flags and air driven wiggly men!
The wise consumer turns and walks, ignoring any gibberish about "the sales manager." Not that this is the end of the deal. The wise consumer waits for the phone call from the sales person. They still have your number. Wait for 1 or 2 more calls. Inform him/her you don't want undercoating or any charges.... That you are negotiating with X other dealerships. If the salesperson wants the deal, if it's profitable, he/she'll concede. The lower price comes out of the commission. Market forces rule.
I've had this experience on every single new car I've ever purchased from a dealership. I've always gotten the phone call back. Usually the imaginary undercoating and delivery charges disappear. I've done my homework, and I self finance. When it doesn't, I know I've been too aggressive (cheap), but I know what I'm willing to pay. There's always another deal out there. Be patient.
Will Obama walk? Probably, if conditions don't change in the last minute. It would play well at home if he did walk. Standing tough. The negotiations don't end, they just go longer. How long? Who knows? The Iranians know how to haggle. So do we. Extended haggling will play very well in Israel. One thing is sure...the Iranians will make The Call.
TS,
Will Obama walk? Probably, if conditions don't change in the last minute. It would play well at home if he did walk. Standing tough.
I completely agree... :D
. The negotiations don't end, they just go longer.
Actually, this would be the 3rd(or maybe the 4th) extension of talks..
It's universally accepted that they will not be extended again..
. Extended haggling will play very well in Israel.
I disagree.. Haggling = Time...
And time works in Iranians favor..
Which is why it's universally accepted that there will be no more time..
The US (and the rest of the West) are in the position of the consumer who has negotiated (haggled)a nice price on a brand new car. Consumer goes to pick up the car, carefully reads the agreement, and notices the salesperson has added $400 worth of undercoating and delivery charges to the bill. Reprehensible, but fully expected. It's an F'IN' CAR DEALERSHIP!!!!, with plastic flags and air driven wiggly men!
The difference being that, in a car negotiation, worse case scenario is that the consumer does not get his new car and the salesman doesn't get his commission...
With these negotiations, worse case scenario are mushroom clouds over Tel Aviv and the country of Iran is a shiny new glass parking lot...
Michale.....
It's universally accepted that they will not be extended again..
On the other hand, I could be wrong.... :^/
LAUSANNE, Switzerland (AP) — Wrapping up six days of marathon nuclear talks with mixed results, Iran and six world powers prepared Tuesday to issue a general statement agreeing to continue talks in a new phase aimed at reaching a final agreement to control Iran's nuclear ambitions by the end of June, officials told The Associated Press on Tuesday.
Officials had set a deadline of March 31 for a framework agreement, and later softened that wording to a framework understanding, between Iran and the so-called P5+1 nations — the United States, Britain, France, Germany, Russia and China.
And after intense negotiations, obstacles remained on uranium enrichment, where stockpiles of enriched uranium should be stored, limits on Iran's nuclear research and development and the timing and scope of sanctions relief among other issues.
http://bigstory.ap.org/article/cda4e341054649f2bf027ebf37b93fa3/differences-persist-deadline-day-iran-nuke-talks
Obama's desperation for a deal is bigger than I thought...
I don't think Democrats in Congress are going to give Obama more time...
New sanctions legislation will be sent thru Congress with a veto-proof bi-partisan majority...
You heard it here first...
Michale
M-66
The Munich Agreement. The Mummuu of historical analogies, one size fits all. Flatters a flabby argument, or so it's said. President's have cited it in going to war in Korea, Vietnam and Iraq.
I humbly suggest that the globe trotting owner of this site should write a piece on the MA, which is a lot more complicated and even seamier than most people think it is. It was a land grab, and not just Germany was grabbing. Hello, Poland? Hungary - we see you too! Hitler might have backed down, many of his generals thought they weren't ready to take on France and Britain, but France and Britain really weren't ready to take on Germany either.
Hitler consistently took risks his generals opposed. Militarily speaking, Czechoslovakia is on the wrong side of Germany. Would Britain and France have fared better by accepting an invitation to the Second World War in '38 rather than '39? That's one of those things historians argue about, but either way, if Hitler gambles, Czechoslovakia gets gobbled.
"England has been offered a choice between war and shame. She has chosen shame, and will get war." - Churchill.
True, but Britain also bought valuable time to rearm, survive it's expeditionary debacle and hunker down to engineer ultimate Nazi defeat. Would this have been possible had BOTH France AND Britain had capitulated by '39? War and strategic defeat? What would be the United States military option had a less well prepared Britain sued for peace? No island bridgehead to continental Europe is the option. Shame is bad, strategic defeat is worse.
Fast forwarding to the 21st century, Iran is engaged in an arms race, but not an outright military annexation of somebody's real estate. Should France and Britain have bombed Hitler's armaments industries in '38? That a direct analogy between the Munich Meme and what's going on now with Tehran, but not even Churchill advocated that. As in '38, geography is a key to understanding viable military options.
Fast forwarding to the 21st century, Iran is engaged in an arms race, but not an outright military annexation of somebody's real estate.
Really??
Beruit??
Syria??
Yemen??
Each an example of Iran, at best, exerting it's will...
At worse, a prelude to annexation and/or protectorate status.....
There are more simarities between Munich and Lausanne than there are differences..
At it's core, both are a prime example of the folly of appeasement..
A better choice then was to keep the pressure on Hitler and Nazi Germany.
A better choice now is to keep the pressure on Iran.. Increase the sanctions.. Turn the screws...
I mean, why loosen sanctions when the are finally having the desired effect??
I would also be interested in your thoughts regarding dealing with a regime who executes people for being gay...
Call me silly, but the hysterical Left gets all bent out of shape because a a christian baker won't bake a gay couple a frakin' wedding cake..
Yet, ya'all are supporting a deal with a regime that EXECUTES gay people..
Something does not compute....
Michale
M - 71,72
Diplomatic deadlines are notoriously soft barriers.
As Churchill himself said, "To jaw-jaw is always better than to war-war."
"time works in Iranians favor.."
Nuclear program yes, economic sanctions no. The sanctions hurt, and they hurt a lot and they hurt now. A prototype bomb would be a demonstration of Iranian technical prowess in maybe one or two years, but deliverable weapons would take longer, and eat up a lot more Iranian economy which makes the impact of sanctions even greater. Only the Iranian leadership knows how they evaluate the tradeoff across time. US - Iranian evaluations are probably not zero sum, which makes everything even more complicated. Throw Israels calculus on top to make things even more interesting.
I would not be surprised to see 4,5,6,7 extensions. With a bit of sanction ratcheting from the West with each extension. More daring black ops from Israel, maybe an airstrike, although the risk is high for what would amount to just another delay if all goes well.
"With these negotiations, worse case scenario are mushroom clouds over Tel Aviv and the country of Iran is a shiny new glass parking lot..."
Not just these negotiations. It's been a truism since the 1950's. Experience suggest the probability of the worst case scenario is low, and it won't get any lower if Iran gets on board. Still the incremental risk won't increase by that much....the now normal risk of miscalculation or outright accident. There ought to be a flip sign on the front of the UN building ...25568 days since our last Armageddon. (That's a rough approximation, I'm too lazy to get an exact count).
http://paulklipp.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/days-since-accident-300x191.jpeg
Remember the cold war? It never entirely went away.
The sanctions hurt, and they hurt a lot and they hurt now.
Actually, Gallup Poll* shows that Iranians are hurting a lot less since sanctions have eased..
Further, Iran cares much MUCH less about the welfare of the peanut gallery than more civilized nations..
A mushroom cloud over Tel Aviv is going to bother the government of Israel than the masses starving will bother Iran...
In other words, Iran can hold the citizens of western countries hostage... Western countries don't have that option even if they were inclined to put it in those terms..
I would not be surprised to see 4,5,6,7 extensions.
If there were no consequences to the extensions, I would agree with you...
But there WILL be consequences to the extensions... If the form of veto-proof legislation from the US Congress...
Negotiating with these fanatics is pointless.. Anything they WOULD agree to would just be to serve their purposes..
And it's not as if they can be trusted to adhere to any agreement that they WOULD agree to...
The IAEA has clearly stated that Iran is not in compliance with even the most basic PMD disclosures....
What makes you think the Iranian government can be trusted on ANYTHING???
Michale
M -74
Yeah, really.
Iran has not annexed Beirut, Syria or Yemen. Iran trains, supplies and finances militant operations in these countries, but has not annexed them. Meddling is not annexation. As CW has pointed out, Iran is a de facto ally of the US in parts of Iraq. Things can get pretty messy in the ol' Levant
and...
What a surprise! A one day extension of the talks.
Meddling is not annexation.
It's a LOT more than just "meddling"...
Obama held up Yemen as, what were his words, a "model of US partnership in the fight against terrorism"??
And now Yemen is well on it's way to becoming an Iranian Protectorate...
There are none so blind as those who will not see..
I guess DENIAL is not just a river in Egypt..
What a surprise! A one day extension of the talks.
Yea, I guess Obama's promises are like the "red line" in Syria.. Non binding on Obama... :^/
Since you insist on dodging the question, I'll ask again..
Negotiating with these fanatics is pointless.. Anything they WOULD agree to would just be to serve their purposes..
And it's not as if they can be trusted to adhere to any agreement that they WOULD agree to...
The IAEA has clearly stated that Iran is not in compliance with even the most basic PMD disclosures....
What makes you think the Iranian government can be trusted on ANYTHING???
Michale
What a surprise! A one day extension of the talks.
We were going for a "Framework" of a deal with Iran..
Even THAT low bar was unobtainable..
Now, the US is hoping for an "understanding"... :^/
What's next??
"We're just hoping to agree on a lunch order"...
An increase in sanctions is the ONLY thing that will force Iran to capitulate...
Michale
TS,
I concede your point on the Munich Agreement..
It WAS a lot different than the Lausanne Agreement.
Chamberlain was sincere in his diplomacy and not looking to his place in history, as Obama is..
Barack Obama has been compared to British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain , who concluded the ill-fated Munich Pact with Hitler in 1938. But Chamberlain acted out of a sincere belief that he was avoiding a greater evil. Chamberlain was not thinking of his place in history. He was thinking only of the Britain that he loved, a Britain that was all but disarmed, exhausted, and vulnerable. He was dealing with a nation that had been decimated by the Great War, a nation whose “best and brightest” five years earlier had declared in the infamous Oxford Oath that they would not fight for king or country, and a nation that was as materially unprepared for war as Germany was prepared to fight. Chamberlain dealt from a position of weakness, one that Hitler continually exploited in the negotiations, even by changing the time and place to make it more inconvenient for the British leader to attend them.
In sharp contrast, Mr. Obama is acting out of personal aggrandizement. He believes he is replicating President Richard Nixon’s historic opening of China. For Mr. Obama, the Iranian nuclear arms deal is about his place in history. Mr. Obama is dealing from a position of strength that he refuses to use. The sanctions have hurt Iran. Falling oil prices only add to Iran’s vulnerability. Instead of using the sanctions to pursue his original promise that Iran would not get the bomb, Mr. Obama has moved the goal post. Iran would not get the bomb immediately. It would be permitted to enrich uranium well beyond the 5 percent need for generating nuclear energy and be left with a breakout capacity to create a bomb.
http://observer.com/2015/03/president-obama-must-not-complete-a-disastrous-deal-with-iran/
So, I agree with you. There are substantial differences between Chamberlain and Obama...
Michale
It's rather apropos that Obama is being played for a fool by Iran on 1 Apr 2015....
:^/
Michale
And, in other news..
House Speaker John A. Boehner, Ohio Republican, extended an invitation to Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to speak to Congress on April 29, which happens to be Showa Day in Japan, a national holiday celebrating the birthday of Hirohito.
Ruh Roh...
Congress has invited another world leader to speak....
The Left is gonna go hysterical bat-shit crazy again!! :D
Michale
"Yesterday an Iranian general brazenly declared and I quote: 'Israel's destruction is non-negotiable', but evidently giving Iran's murderous regime a clear path to the bomb is negotiable. This is unconscionable. I agree with those who have said that Iran's claim that its nuclear program is only for peaceful purposes doesn't square with Iran's insistence on keeping underground nuclear facilities, advanced centrifuges and a heavy water reactor. Nor does it square with Iran's insistence on developing ICBMs and its refusal to come clean with the IAEA on its past weaponization efforts. At the same time, Iran is accelerating its campaign of terror, subjugation and conquest throughout the region, most recently in Yemen."
-Israeli Prime Minister
Hard ta argue with the logic...
The Obama Administration is negotiating with a regime that promises time and time again Israel's destruction..
Ya gotta wonder how Americans would feel if Britian was in the midst of negotiating with the USSR after Kruschev's WE WILL BURY YOU" speech...
"What's good for the goose is nobody's business but the gander's!"
-Ralph Furley, THREES COMPANY
Michale
The general consensus amongst Americans, both Right and Left is that the US should walk away from the negotiating table..
Iran is not negotiating in good faith..
Frak 'em....
"We should probably begin. After all, the Sindareen Peace Initiative would probably proceed far more smoothly without the Sindareen actually being involved..."
-STAR TREK, IMZADI
:D
Michale
And another extension of the "deadline"....
This is Obama's "red line" in Syria all over again..
It is EXACTLY why Obama has absolutely ZERO credibility as POTUS...
Michale
http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2015/04/01/obamas-folly-in-iran-needs-page-from-reagans-playbook/
Couldn't have said it better...
Obama needs to channel his inner Reagan...
Oh wait. Obama doesn't HAVE an inner Reagan..
We're scrooed...
Michale
"We should probably begin. After all, the Sindareen Peace Initiative would probably proceed far more smoothly without the Sindareen actually being involved..."
-STAR TREK, IMZADI
It's somewhat ironic how the Sindareen in Star Trek parallel the Iranians of today..
Like the Iranians, the Sindareen were warlike and liked to prey on innocent weaker planets. In Picard's time, a "Sindareen Peace Initiative" was conceived whereas the Federation would give economic assistance to the Sindareen and the Sindareen would behave itself..
The Sindareen (after murdering Counselor Troi) reneged in all the agreements and using the newfound wealth from the Federation Economic Assistance, became a major threat to peace and stability in the galaxy...
That was the altered history..
In the (for lack of better term) "real" timeline, the Federation opted NOT to give the Sindareen any economic aide. This was mainly due to Counselor Troi's discovery that the Sindareen were being duplicitous and had every intention on reneging on the agreements. Hence, her murder that created the alternate timeline..
Of course, the moral of the story is to not prop up tyrannical and murderous regimes. Let them collapse and then give aide to help pick up the pieces. This way, the aid givers have a lot more control over where the aid goes and how it is used...
Surely, ya'all can see the parallels to the Iranian situation...
"That's fiction!!" ya'all exclaim. "That could never happen in real life.."
And yet, that is EXACTLY how the USSR was brought down and eliminated..
There is simply no logical or rational reason to give Iran any consideration whatsoever.. Their actions all across the region gives lie to their claims of innocence..
The *ONLY* reason to support a deal with Iran, the only *POSSIBLE* reason to support dealing with this murderous thuggish regime is to soothe Obama's fractured ego..
Obama's ego is the ONLY reason this deal is still being considered and supported...
Michale
Like the Iranians, the Sindareen were warlike and liked to prey on innocent weaker planets. In Picard's time, a "Sindareen Peace Initiative" was conceived whereas the Federation would give economic assistance to the Sindareen and the Sindareen would behave itself..
I swear.. There ain't nothin' in the world of the here and now that ya can't learn from Star Trek! :D
Michale
Diplomacy, Obama Style...
"After months and months of negotiating, the United States and Iran agree that we MIGHT be able to agree at the end of June..."
Jeezus H Chreest...
Either pee or get off the pot....
Michale
Iran Accuses U.S. of Lying About New Nuke Agreement
http://freebeacon.com/national-security/iran-accuses-u-s-of-lying-about-new-nuke-agreement/
Oh yea...
We can deal with these clowns.... :^/
Michale
"So this deal is not based on trust, it’s based on unprecedented verification.”
-President Barack Obama
That little bit of BS is right up there with "IF YOU LIKE YOUR HEALTH PLAN, YOU CAN KEEP YOUR HEALTH PLAN" and "I WELCOME THE DEBATE ON MY DOMESTIC SURVEILLANCE PROGRAMS.
The fact that Obama seems to think he has ANY credibility or that he thinks ANYONE can believe what he says...???
It's mind boggling..
Keep hearing from (the usual suspect) that President would like to visit Iran before end of his presidency - now 21 months away
Think we can convince Iran to keep him???
Michale