The GOP Race At The Bottom
Please note that today's headline does not refer to a GOP race "to the bottom," but rather "at the bottom." Examining Republicans racing towards the bottom (however you define that concept) would be an entirely different subject, but what I'm talking about today is what is likely to become the most fierce fighting within the Republican Party's primary campaign -- the race at the very bottom of the polling -- because it will soon have an outsized importance for the overall contest to see which Republican will become the presidential nominee.
The Republican National Committee has (so far) successfully ducked responsibility for what is shaping up to be a very contentious issue: who, exactly, is allowed on stage at the Republican debates. They've essentially passed this baton to Fox News, which will be hosting the first debate of the season (on the sixth of August). Fox recently announced that they'll only allow 10 candidates on their stage, to be determined by an average of the five most recent nationwide polls. This is a lot of candidates, to be sure, but even so, the Republican field is expected to have somewhere around 15 candidates (perhaps as low as 14, but also perhaps even more than 16). This means some are guaranteed to be left out in the cold.
Now, I don't blame Fox for limiting the field in such a fashion. If there were only, say, six candidates and they decided to exclude one or two of them, a good argument could be made that it would be discriminatory towards a possibly-viable candidate. However, with over a dozen vying for stage space, the debates themselves could turn into nothing but allowing two or maybe three soundbite answers from each candidate -- which would diminish the impact of even having debates in the first place. If 15 candidates were on stage in a 90-minute debate, this would mean each would only proportionally get six minutes of speaking time -- minus the time it took to ask the questions. Even with only 10 onstage, it still means an average of only nine minutes each -- not much time to lay out a platform, or even make a name for yourself.
What will get very interesting is the jockeying for the final few positions above "the cut." While there will be at least five or six candidates who are clearly in the front ranks, the real fighting is likely to be over the eighth, ninth, and tenth spots. To see why, let's take a look at the posted current polling averages (numbers taken from RealClearPolitics):
15.4 percent (average) -- Jeb Bush
13.2 -- Scott Walker
13.2 -- Marco Rubio
9.2 -- Rand Paul
8.6 -- Mike Huckabee
8.6 -- Ted Cruz
7.8 -- Ben Carson
5.4 -- Chris Christie
Those are the top eight candidates, as the polling stands today. All have a shot at gaining a sudden bump in polling to put them into "frontrunner" status. A few of them haven't even officially announced their candidacies yet, and high-profile candidates usually get at least a mini "bounce" in the polls when they announce.
But after this top rank (and middle rank, depending on your definition), there is a pretty sharp dropoff in polling numbers. Here is the lower end of the scale:
2.4 -- Rick Perry
2.3 -- Rick Santorum
2.0 -- John Kasich
1.3 -- Carly Fiorina
1.3 -- Bobby Jindal
1.3 -- Lindsey Graham
You'll immediately note a few things about this lower-tier list. The first is that not everybody's on it. George Pataki (for example) is rumored to be announcing his candidacy this week, but hasn't been included in many pollster's lists of candidates yet, so it's impossible to know what his numbers will turn out to be. Which brings up another unfairness question even with the data so far collected -- not every name in this bottom tier has been included on every poll. So the data at this point has to be seen as incomplete, at best. The other thing worth noting is that sometimes making an official announcement doesn't automatically mean getting any sort of bump in the polls. Carly Fiorina announced a few weeks back, but has never seen the slightest surge in her polling as a direct result. The Republican base is not catching fire for Carly, it seems. The final thing worth noting from the raw numbers is the gap between this list of candidates and the top tier. While Chris Christie could be included on either list (he splits the big gap, to put it another way), as either the top of the bottom tier or the bottom of the top tier, the difference between Ben Carson's 7.8 percent and Rick Perry's 2.4 percent is a significantly wide one.
But, to get back to the overall point, Fox is only allowing the top 10 to participate. Currently, this cut would allow Rick Santorum on the stage while barring John Kasich from participating. These two are separated by only 0.3 percent, though, a much tighter margin than (say) the difference between Christie and Perry.
What this could mean is a bruising battle for the final slots on the Fox debate stage. This might motivate all the candidates polling under five percent to begin attacking each other rather than the higher-rated Republicans, in an effort to secure one of the final debate slots. This might become especially acute when the final list of all declared candidates is known.
The easiest example of this might be if Donald Trump jumps in the race. Trump would be (quite obviously) nothing more than a vanity candidate, but just name recognition alone might vault him to over five percent in the polling. He'd certainly then make a tempting target for those candidates polling at two or three percent. Tearing down Trump's popularity might mean a coveted debate slot, in other words.
Even without an obvious target like "The Donald," though, there may be a fiercely-fought battle at the lower end of the Republican polling list. For a little-known candidate, debates can be crucial. They allow the candidate to make a big splash with one or two unique positions that get all the other candidates talking (and following a minor candidate's lead). Just on the name-recognition factor alone, debates can be the only real way to launch a little-known candidate into the national spotlight.
The other side of this coin is pretty grim, because it can be nothing more than a downward spiral. If a candidate doesn't make it into the debates, then they are seen as not really viable. Without the debate spotlight, it can be impossible for minor candidates to make any sort of splash in the public eye. This represents a real Catch-22 situation, because the only way to get a bump in the polls (and qualify for future debates) can be to make a splash in a debate. With no chance to share the stage with the big name candidates, this can become an impossibility. Which condemns the minor candidate to continued lethargic poll numbers, which bars them from ever attaining one of those coveted debate slots.
There has already been some worried talk from Republicans that the debate cutoff means their claims to a diverse selection of candidates will be reduced. Currently, three minorities are in the top tier (Cruz, Rubio, and Carson), but a big "diversity candidate" will be left out in the cold (Fiorina, the only Republican woman running). This is one reason why the Republican National Committee is relieved to have Fox News set the bar, rather than themselves (because they can then use "the people decided, not us" as a handy excuse).
Personally, though, I think it'll be very interesting to see how the Republican candidates behave over the summer, especially when we get closer to the beginning of August (when those national polls will start to qualify for the Fox cutoff measurement). If we've got eight or nine candidates fighting for two or three debate slots, they may all decide it's a better idea to start sniping at each other, rather than at Jeb Bush and the rest of the frontrunners. By differentiating yourself at the bottom of the pack, you might just gain a chance to launch yourself into the higher ranks. And that could prove to be irresistible, making the race at the bottom the fiercest part of the battle for the Republican nomination.
-- Chris Weigant
Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant
Best headline so far about the 2016 race: Biker-brawl suspects only slightly outnumber GOP candidates
http://www.newyorker.com/humor/borowitz-report/biker-brawl-suspects-only-slightly-outnumber-republican-candidates
Sorry, CW ... just had to. It was too good!
-David
p.s. On a serious note, what I think is going to be interesting about the Republican race is either a) how they're going to get Jeb past every extreme candidate under the sun, or b) will one extreme candidate somehow manage to garner enough support.
My theory is that they're going to try to play the extremists against each other to make it look like they're "conservative". Then Jeb will step in. You never know though.
The bottom tier all have numbers smaller than their margins of error.
The Supremes are going to give the bottom feeders some judicial activism to fan the flames of resentful Republican outrage here shortly. Let the food fight begin.
Maybe they see a brokered convention as the way to get Jeb in ...
http://theweek.com/articles/555251/gops-worst-nightmare-pundits-dream-brokered-convention-2016
Say what ya want about the GOP primary fight...
But at least there IS a primary fight.
And the GOP Candidate that emerges will be much MUCH stronger for it..
Coronations will not a viable candidate make...
Michale
The obvious solution is a bracket system. Anyone who tells the debate organizers that they want to run would get a spot. It might be in a 15-minute slot at 3 AM with three other unknowns, but it would be a chance to go on to a 20-minute slot at 2 AM with the winners of the other three debates in the 15-minute 3AM round.
Fox News and the Republican Party are going about this all wrong. A debate format can't work with a 14-16 candidate field, but don't winnow the field, change the format. I'm disappointed that Fox News hasn't come up with a better solution, because if Fox is good at anything, it's good a making things up.
Three words:
Outwit
Outplay
Outlast
That's right, sign on to the Survivor Reality Game Show Format. The whole structure blends beautifully with selecting a viable candidate and a large, diverse field:
First of all, the survivor games usually have 16-20 players. Fifteen to sixteen candidates... check. In fact, there is room for expansion!!! Invite Ron Paul (intriguing dynamic with Rand)and nothing will keep the Donald from showing up.
Keep all the key elements of the Survivor Franchise:
Tribes
Tribal Councils
Challenges (individual and tribal)
Hidden Immunity Idols
Exile Island
Redemption Island
All tribes must build their own rudimentary housing from natural resource (e.g. home depot)and prizes (Oohhh, hot tub!).
Our contestants are not 20 somethings, so the locale will have to take this into consideration.
Chris Christie can't tolerate high humidity or temperatures above 72F, this is GOP Survivor, not yet another remake of Lord O' The Flies. Terrain should be flat, Christie Again.
Oh, one final thing. Like all reality shows, it needs careful scripting and medics on standby.
dsws - 6.
I think the bracket idea would be better suited to actual primaries. I've proposed this in posts gone by at this very site.
TS,
RE: #7
"That's humor. I recognize that."
-JT Walsh, GOOD MORNING VIETNAM
:D
Michale
M -
My life summarized:
My best ideas are mistaken for humor.
My jokes are taken seriously.
Michale ... there's no fight.
Let me tell you who your nominee is going to be. It's going to be Jeb Bush.
Wanna place a bet of some kind on whether or not it's Jeb?
-David
Let me tell you who your nominee is going to be. It's going to be Jeb Bush.
Wanna place a bet of some kind on whether or not it's Jeb?
Abso-frakin'-tively!!! :D
Name yer stakes!! :D
I HOPE it's Walker, but I am betting it's Rubio...
Michale
It won't be Walker. Walker's out in front right now taking fire.
Rubio has a shot. That's a good guess. I always forget about him. He could be cast as a moderate in the general and people might even believe it :D!
I'll stand by my word though and stick w/ Jeb. Here's the I heart Jeb shirt I will wear if anyone other than Jeb gets the Republican nomination.
http://www.zazzle.com/i_love_jeb_bush_tee_shirts-235695243946589751
I'll let you pick out something equally Democratically detestable if Jeb wins. Heheh.
-David
http://media1.popsugar-assets.com/files/2013/04/15/3/301/3019466/b2a964e67638d82f_i-supported-hillary-clinton-before-it-was-cool-t-shirt.american-apparel-unisex-fitted-tee.white.w760h760/i/I-Supported-Hillary-Clinton-Before-Cool-t-shirt-18.jpg
:D
Marco Rubio is the one candidate that Democrats truly fear...
Walker is next on that list...
Michale
Michale ... there's no fight.
Oh com' on! :D
Are you trying to tell me that the Bush/Rubio dynamic is the same as the Clinton/Sanders dynamic??
The GOP bench is replete with viable candidates...
The Dems got.... Hillary.. And ONLY Hillary..
To put it succinctly....
The GOP is going to have a Primary...
The Dems are going to have a coronation...
"Dems da facts, Jack!!!"
-Bill Murray, STRIPES
:D
Michale
"Our contestants are not 20 somethings, so the locale will have to take this into consideration."
I vote for Survivor: Ramadi
Immunity challenges could include water-boarding, sleep deprivation, and cattle prods.
Let's see just how tough those Republican chicken-hawks are. I think that Carly would win.
Immunity challenges could include water-boarding, sleep deprivation, and cattle prods.
Let's see just how tough those Republican chicken-hawks are. I think that Carly would win.
Those who advocate the challenges must endure them first.. :D
Let's see how tough those Democrat chicken-hawks are!!
:D
Michale
David,
I'll stand by my word though and stick w/ Jeb. Here's the I heart Jeb shirt I will wear if anyone other than Jeb gets the Republican nomination.
Actually, wouldn't it make more sense if you wore an I HEART shirt for whomever IS the GOP nominee??
:D
Michale
Do the primary debates even matter in the 21st century? They're mass press conferences filmed before a live audience. Evasive or totally irrelevant responses married to no opportunity for follow up. NEXXXT!
The only way a candidate can get a significant boost is if they get a swing at a T-Ball question they are well prepared for. Newt at the South Carolina primary debates is the classic example. Open marriage? How dare you? Zing! Fireworks, Newt trots the bases like The Babe and the cable pundits and internet dissect the footage. Big boost, big decline, doesn't matter much, it's a season, not one game, followed by playoffs and The Series. Infotainment, next to nothing more.
Open marriage? How dare you? Zing! Fireworks,
Fireworks, indeed... :D
Michale
That is a detestable shirt indeed, Michale.
And you're right, it would make more sense for me to wear an "I heart" shirt for the GOP nominee.
I thought about this later too. Done!
-David
p.s. The more I think about it the more I think you're right that this could be a year of change for the GOP. I think they might be looking back at Romney and McCain and thinking a little differently this time around. I'll stand by my bet though (however hastily made!). It will be interesting!
If Dems had anyone but Hillary running, I would be nervous about the upcoming election..
I mean, look at it. All Hillary has going for her is the Clinton name... If her name were Hillary Smith, there wouldn't even be ANY consideration of her as a viable candidate...
And, I know ya'all are somewhat loathe to admit it, but I am willing to wager that nearly every Weigantian feels the same way about Hillary as I do.. :D
It's going to be an interesting election, that's few sure. :D
Michale
"If her name were Hillary Smith, there wouldn't even be ANY consideration of her as a viable candidate..."
and if my aunt Milli had wheels she'd be a Trolley. Success in politics, is all about ifs and ands. Where do you think Jeb would be without Poppy? Where is that famed Michale agnosticism? :)
and if my aunt Milli had wheels she'd be a Trolley.
“And if my grandmother had wheels she'de be a wagon.”
-Scotty, STAR TREK III, The Search For Spock
I can't believe you missed such a perfect oppurtunity for a Trek Quote!!! :D heh
Where do you think Jeb would be without Poppy? Where is that famed Michale agnosticism? :)?
Jeb was a successful and popular State Governor..
Hillary was a mediocre State Senator (ONLY because of her last name) and a disastrous Sec State...
Having said that, yer absolutely right. Jeb would probably not be a candidate if not for his brother and his father..
I am glad we can agree.. :D
Michale
I am willing to wager that nearly every Weigantian feels the same way about Hillary as I do.. :D
There you'd be wrong, my friend! Some people here might not like Hillary but the reason why is that she's a corporate Democrat.
Which still makes her better than the entire Republican field :).
-David
Some people here might not like Hillary but the reason why is that she's a corporate Democrat.
Hypocrisy doesn't enter into it???
:D
Which still makes her better than the entire Republican field :).
Really??
You complain about Republicans being bought and paid for by corporate players..
Isn't that your same complaint against Hillary???
Michale
I mean, think about it..
Everything mean and nasty thing you say about Republicans, I can provide ESTABLISHED FACT that points to Hillary as well..
Michale
David, I don't like her because she's an old hag.
Which still makes her better than the entire Republican field except for maybe Carly. I heard that she's stalking Hillary and her campaign slogan is "I'm an old hag too!".
David, I don't like her because she's an old hag.
Misogyny much?? :D
Can you imagine how hysterically apeshit the Left would go if some GOP'er said, "I don't like her because she's an old hag.,
I'm just sayin' :D
Michale