The Republican Race Tightens
It's time once again to take a look at the vastness of the Republican field of candidates for president. The last time I devoted an article to the Republican primary race was back in May, so like it or not, the time has come again.
Of course, while several candidates have made formal announcements since then, in my previous column I was assuming most of them would run anyway, so the list was already 14 people long. As of today, the total stands at 16 formally-declared candidates, with one more (Jim Gilmore) waiting in the wings to make his announcement. But since no polls are currently even including Gilmore, we're going to ignore him for the time being.
This leaves us with the 14 previous candidates and two additions -- one at the very top of the polling and one at the very bottom. George Pataki isn't exactly riding a wave of support since he announced, but Donald Trump certainly has captured the base's attention. Trump went from nowhere to sitting on the very top of the polls -- the most recent poll (all data is from Real Clear Politics) has him at a whopping 24 percent -- much higher than any other Republican has managed for the entire race.
In the polling average, Trump is also leading with an impressive 18.0 percent. While Trump has been taking off, though, the interesting thing is that the rest of the field is frozen almost solid. When you compare the rankings from back in May to where they are now (not counting Trump, since he wasn't on the list back then), the top nine rankings are in exactly the same order they were back then. Huckabee and Cruz were tied back then, and they remain tied. You have to go pretty far down the list to see two candidates even shift at all, and it's a pretty minor change -- Santorum used to be beating Kasich by 0.3 points, but the two are now tied (at 1.5 percent each). Other than that, the rankings are exactly the same. With one big difference, of course, because everyone moved down one peg when Trump became the frontrunner.
That's a pretty solidly frozen field, folks. Other than Trump, nobody's moving much at all. Actually, that's not quite true. Trump has stolen support from just about everyone else. Nobody gained support, but one candidate (Jindal) managed to stay exactly the same, at 1.3 percent. Every else went down. I should also mention that Pataki entered at the very bottom with 0.3 percent, but this obviously didn't have any effect at all on the rest of the list.
Here's a quick list of how many points each candidate lost -- mostly to Trump -- from their polling averages in May:
(2.6) -- Jeb Bush
(2.4) -- Scott Walker
(6.9) -- Marco Rubio
(3.2) -- Rand Paul
(2.8) -- Mike Huckabee
(2.8) -- Ted Cruz
(2.3) -- Ben Carson
(2.6) -- Chris Christie
(0.4) -- Rick Perry
(0.5) -- John Kasich
(0.8) -- Rick Santorum
(0.0) -- Bobby Jindal
(0.5) -- Carly Fiorina
Across the board, almost all the other candidates are falling as Trump is rising. Rubio took the biggest dive, followed by Rand Paul. But everyone but Jindal got dinged. In absolute terms, this has had a big effect on everyone's relative support. Back in May, if you drew a line of viability at 5.0 percent, you would have been left with eight candidates polling above that mark. If you drew the line at 7.0 percent, you would still have had seven candidates. Right now, excluding everyone below 5.0 still leaves you with eight candidates (minus Christie, but plus Trump), but if you excluded everyone polling below 7.0 percent, you'd be left with only three names: Trump, Bush, and Walker.
The field is sorting itself into three tiers. The top "frontrunner" tier consists of only Trump, Bush, and Walker, all of whom are still polling above 10 percent. Bush's numbers are trending downwards, Walker's are trending upwards, but Trump is beating the pack handily, at least for now. Here are their current averages, with the results of the last two polls in parenthesis:
18.0 -- (24/18) -- Donald Trump
13.8 -- (12/14) -- Jeb Bush
10.8 -- (13/15) -- Scott Walker
It's a pretty safe bet at this point that these three will occupy the center spots at the first debates, and get more questions than the other candidates. The second tier candidates are bunched pretty tight, all hovering in the 5.5-to-6.3 percent range:
6.3 -- (7/7) -- Marco Rubio
6.0 -- (6/8) -- Rand Paul
5.8 -- (8/4) -- Mike Huckabee
5.8 -- (4/4) -- Ted Cruz
5.5 -- (6/6) -- Ben Carson
Cruz has managed a slight rise recently, but he's still down quite a bit from where he was in May. Marco Rubio is way down from his previous level of support, and moved back from the frontrunner list to the second grouping. Chris Christie fell off this middle-tier list, moving down to the bottom tier. But everyone on this list will appear at the first debate, unless they implode somehow in the intervening two weeks.
This brings us to the bottom of the field. There are nine names on the list, but for some reason Real Clear Politics dropped Lindsey Graham from their data. His polling had been pretty low, but back in May he was tied with Fiorina and Jindal at 1.3 percent, so one wonders why Graham is currently being excluded. Also, Jim Gilmore is announcing today, but it comes as a surprise to most, so his name hasn't yet been included on any polls. All of these nine candidates will be struggling to secure one of the two remaining spots on the debate stage (only the top two on this list will make it). Here are the remaining seven (the ones with currently-available polling data):
2.8 -- (3/3) -- Chris Christie
2.0 -- (4/1) -- Rick Perry
1.5 -- (2/2) -- John Kasich
1.5 -- (1/2) -- Rick Santorum
1.3 -- (2/0) -- Bobby Jindal
0.8 -- (0/1) -- Carly Fiorina
0.3 -- (1/0) -- George Pataki
Most of these candidates have been campaigning for months now. None has made the tiniest dent in attracting public support. In fact, Trump's entry caused even their paltry May numbers to shrink. Chris Christie alone lost almost half his support -- from 5.4 down to 2.8 percent. Lindsey Graham somehow dropped off the list altogether.
Looking at the largely-unchanged nature of the Republican presidential candidate rankings in the polls, I'm sticking with the basic prediction I made back in May:
What this could mean is a bruising battle for the final slots on the Fox debate stage. This might motivate all the candidates polling under five percent to begin attacking each other rather than the higher-rated Republicans, in an effort to secure one of the final debate slots. This might become especially acute when the final list of all declared candidates is known.
The easiest example of this might be if Donald Trump jumps in the race. Trump would be (quite obviously) nothing more than a vanity candidate, but just name recognition alone might vault him to over five percent in the polling. He'd certainly then make a tempting target for those candidates polling at two or three percent. Tearing down Trump's popularity might mean a coveted debate slot, in other words.
Even without an obvious target like "The Donald," though, there may be a fiercely-fought battle at the lower end of the Republican polling list. For a little-known candidate, debates can be crucial. They allow the candidate to make a big splash with one or two unique positions that get all the other candidates talking (and following a minor candidate's lead). Just on the name-recognition factor alone, debates can be the only real way to launch a little-known candidate into the national spotlight.
Except now my outlook has changed, slightly. I still think there are going to be some desperate bids for attention at the lower end of the scale, but now I wonder if one or more of them might actually try to out-Trump Trump -- by saying something so outrageously over the top that the media attention shifts from the always-amusing Trump campaign. Granted, Rick Perry seems to be the only one in this bottom tier brave enough to actually take on Trump (in line with my prediction), but so far it hasn't vaulted his poll numbers in any meaningful way. But I could see Bobby Jindal, or perhaps even Chris Christie, try to recapture the media's attention by trying to outdo Trump in rhetoric on some issue or another. After all, Trump's been pretty successful so far doing what he does, so sooner or later someone's probably going to attempt beating him at his own game. Especially if they're polling under two percent and essentially have nothing to lose.
-- Chris Weigant
Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant
... but now I wonder if one or more of them might actually try to out-Trump Trump -- by saying something so outrageously over the top that the media attention shifts from the always-amusing Trump campaign.
Au contraire! Far from amusing, the Trump campaign and the seriousness with which the media covers it is exceedingly painful to watch.
In a world that is increasingly complicated - technologically, economically and politically - the media enabling of and focus on the non-serious Trump campaign is monumentally destructive and an utter waste of time and resources.
But, he's at the top of the polls, you say! That begs a whole host of other questions and lines of analyses - serious matters that should be the focus of an intelligent political discourse and media coverage.
"Lindsey Graham somehow dropped off the list altogether."
Really? Somehow? It's a mystery when a LOSER loses?
The Donald is a Twitter troll extraordinaire. It's unwise to mess with him. The only thing that matters to him is the spotlight. Bill Maher made a joke that implied that Trump's mother f*cked an orangatan. Trump filed a pointless lawsuit which only called attention to the joke, but he did get attention. He's clearly more vicious than even the Bush clan.
The also-rans should spend all their money right now on Faux News. It's the best bet for raising their national poll standing. How lucky for Fox!
Frothy Santorum is scheduled to appear on Rachel Maddow's show tomorrow night. That way very well punch his ticket. Expect Frothy to be in full religious freedom martyr mode against the Big Gay Agenda. Will The Donald let him have his day in the sun?
Still waiting for someone... ANYONE... to point out the error in Trump's statements regarding illegal immigrants..
Trump is obviously not a politician... That's why he is striking a nerve..
Michale
As of today, the total stands at 16 formally-declared candidates, with one more (Jim Gilmore) waiting in the wings to make his announcement.
Who??? :D
In a world that is increasingly complicated - technologically, economically and politically - the media enabling of and focus on the non-serious Trump campaign is monumentally destructive and an utter waste of time and resources.
If one ignores the obvious ideological differences, there is really no difference between the Trump campaign and the Sanders campaign..
More accurately, there is no difference in the campaign process.
Each campaign picks a group to demonize and throws their respective fringe red meat to attack demonized group...
Michale
Trump is obviously not a politician... That's why he is striking a nerve..
The same nerve that an unknown young black senator from Illinois struck in 2007...
Michale
The Donald is a Twitter troll extraordinaire.
It's funny... Anyone who disagrees with you is a "troll"... :D
Well, I guess that's better than being a chat bot, eh? :D heh
Michale
Ooooohhh CW????
Hillary Clinton trails three top Republican presidential candidates in head-to-head matchups in Colorado, Iowa and Virginia, a new survey shows.
http://www.cnn.com/2015/07/22/politics/hillary-clinton-marco-rubio-jeb-bush-polls/index.html
I predicted there would come a time when polls showed Hillary looking at the GOP Candidate's backsides...
And here we are...
Michale
:D
The political analogy du jour is that Trump is sucking all the oxygen out of the primary room. The oxygen being media coverage/and or public attention.
Wrong. He is a back draft forcing MORE oxygen into The Big Top. That's fanned an already smoldering fuel of social discontent into a full scale blaze. It doesn't help that some the Media clowns working the Big Top are panicking and tossing buckets full of confetti onto the blaze, but the critical problem is the back draft is sufficiently strong to suck in both oxygen and fuel from both inside and outside The Tent. Cable News,Confederate flags, Mexicans, blogs, wedding cakes, John McCain, YouTube etc!!!
Classic fire storm. I'm not sure if Trump is a careless roustabout or a calculating arsonist looking to collect on the insurance.
Still waiting for someone... ANYONE... to point out the error in Trump's statements regarding illegal immigrants..
Other than Trump branding, is there anything new from the last time we discredited all your points? You seem to be trying to sell the same BS. I'm just waiting for you to try and scare us with American gang members in New Jersey again...
Other than Trump branding, is there anything new from the last time we discredited all your points?
Nobody has discredited ANY of the points I have made because no one has posted ANY facts to dispute the criminality of illegal immigrants...
If you have any evidence, by all means..
"I am all ears"
-Ross Perot
Michale
I just have to add that I put very little faith in primary mash-up polls which don't capture strategic voting decisions very well. There is bound to be a lot of uncertainty in a model with 16 variables plus interactions. You can only keep a sample voter on the phone so long.
Trump fairs very poorly in one on one comparisons with Clinton in aggregate national polls. There is also that little wrinkle known as the Electoral College.
Trump fairs very poorly in one on one comparisons with Clinton in aggregate national polls. There is also that little wrinkle known as the Electoral College
No one is claiming that Trump will win the primary, let alone the General..
I am just wanting someone.. ANYONE to point out *any* non-factual statements that Trump made about illegal immigrants..
Michale
Nobody has discredited ANY of the points I have made because no one has posted ANY facts to dispute the criminality of illegal immigrants...
If you have any evidence, by all means..
In your wet dreams maybe. Chris thoroughly trashed the "newly minted democratic voter" crap. Any large group of people are going to commit crimes. Statistically you are safer around illegal immigrants than citizens. If I'm bored later maybe I'll copy and paste the evidence from the last time you brought this up. But as you evidently refused to read it then, I'm not sure why I should bother...
"I am all ears"
-Ross Perot
When you say all ears you really mean with ear plugs in, under shooting ear muffs, in a sound proofed cave, a few hundred miles away muttering na, na, na, na, right?
In your wet dreams maybe. Chris thoroughly trashed the "newly minted democratic voter" crap.
Actually, that's not the point of this particular discussion..
Even if it was, you are completely wrong. I already demolished CW's rebuttal weeks ago..
Statistically you are safer around illegal immigrants than citizens.
Yea??
Tell that to the family of Kathleen Steinle...
Tell that to the family of Jamiel Shaw...
Tell that to the hundreds of thousands of Americans who have been robbed and raped and assaulted by illegal immigrants..
It's not ME you have to convince..
It's all of them you have to convince....
Irregardless ( :D ) of all that, I am still waiting for you to refute Trump's statements regarding illegal immigrants with facts of your own..
THAT is the point of this particular discussion...
Michale
Statistically you are safer around illegal immigrants than citizens.
By definition, illegal immigrants are criminals..
The idea that one is safer around criminals than non-criminals??
Ludicrous... Ridiculous...
"A whole lot of 'usses"
-Phil, HERCULES
:D
Michale
OK, before I answer some of these, I noticed that Graham has reappeared on the RCP chart! He's currently polling at 0.0 percent.
But alas, George Pataki is now gone.
I think I know what's going on. The RCP software was set up for a maximum of 15 candidates. The data at the top shows that adding more would squeeze the columns so much the title names would become unreadable.
So RCP's either going to have to upgrade their programming, or arbitrarily make a cut of only the top 15. We'll see which way they go, as it now seems like there'll be 17 candidates (Jim Gilmore should hopefully be the last hat in the ring).
Anyway, wonky side note, and I'm just guessing about RCP, I should add...
-CW
John From Censornati [2] -
That line was meant to be read with maximum snark.
Heh.
Aside: The Onion has the most hilarious (and possibly accurate) Trump satire I've seen yet, presented as an open letter from Trump to the public:
http://www.theonion.com/blogpost/admit-it-you-people-want-see-how-far-goes-dont-you-50895
My favorite part:
The thing is, I've got all of you eating out of my hand and I haven't even released a single campaign commercial yet. Don't look me in the eye and tell me you don’t want to stick around and see what that looks like, because you and I both know these ads are going to be absolutely incredible. I'll be standing there projecting my best presidential air, saying "I'm Donald Trump, and I approve this message," and you won't be able to take your eyes off it.
As Michale would say, "It's funny because it's true!"
Heh.
TheStig [10] -
Yeah, but the firestorm is so classy, and so yu-u-u-uge! Heh.
Michale [12] -
The problem we all have with Trump (and many Repulicans) is their propensity to assign group guilt from one or two examples. Thus, an immigrant kills someone, therefore all immigrants are murderers and rapists.
I could use local experience and say "All immigrants have started up successful software giants or are working as engineers for those giants" and you would probably laugh. Nevertheless, that is Silicon Valley.
The problem is trying to assign a vary varied group by the examples of a tiny sliver of that group. Every group has good and bad.
Statistics show that immigrants actually commit crimes at a lower rate than native-born Americans. That's what happens when you look at real data, rather than just a few incendiary examples.
Which Bashi has already pointed out. And which you'll ignore, once again.
Seriously, though, stop defending him for a minute and answer a simple question: what do you think of Trump's rise? What do you think his chances are for the GOP nomination? I'm interested, because they seem to be shifting upwards...
-CW
CW,
If we were talking about "immigrants" then you would have a point..
But we're not, so you don't.. :D
Ya'all *ALWAYS* try to change the subject and talk about "immigrants" when all I ever talk about are ILLEGAL immigrants.
A group that, BY DEFINITION, are criminals...
Now, if ya'all want to stay on topic and discuss/debate *ILLEGAL* immigrants, then by all means..
Let's all debate..
But there isn't any contention about IMMIGRANTS at all, in any way, shape or form...
And yea.. Feel free to slap me down for bitching about "on topic" discussions :D
Michale
Statistics show that immigrants actually commit crimes at a lower rate than native-born Americans. That's what happens when you look at real data, rather than just a few incendiary examples.
Which Bashi has already pointed out. And which you'll ignore, once again.
I didn't ignore it then and I won't ignore it now..
Everything you and Bashi say about IMMIGRANTS is perfectly true and factual..
It's also perfectly true and factual that everything you and Bashi say about IMMIGRANTS is completely, unequivocally IRRELEVANT to the discussion of ILLEGAL immigrants.
Which IS the topic...
Michale
"Anyone who disagrees with you is a "troll""
Dear competent CW readers,
The house chatbot/troll has made yet another bizarrely dishonest and easily disproved assertion about me. Hardly news, I'll concede that point. I have expressed no disagreement with The Donald. I sincerely love his performance art and hope he gets the nomination. I do also feel fairly certain that there are billions of people on this planet who I disagree with about something or other and I assume that some of them are good people and not trolls at all. Just the trolls are trolls.
"Anyone who disagrees with you is a "troll""
Dear troll,
I realize that reading comprehension is an issue for you, but you needn't get defensive about my comment just because you have a negative impression of a word that you evidently don't understand and you're uneasy about identifying with The Donald.
OK. Now it's time for you to puke up some trollish GOP-generated talking point because, somewhat like The Donald's obsessive-compulsive need to respond, you are programmed to have the last word. Go.
"That line was meant to be read with maximum snark."
I had to play the Trump Card. I couldn't resist.
I'm still waiting for someone to explain why Trump swift-boating MacThuselah is a problem for The Donald. Trump is right. JM is a dummy. It is better to not get captured. Trump Nation hates RINOs. McCain should apologize.
I'm still waiting for someone to explain why Trump swift-boating MacThuselah is a problem for The Donald. Trump is right. JM is a dummy. It is better to not get captured. Trump Nation hates RINOs. McCain should apologize.
And I am still waiting for you to point to the statements that Trump made regarding illegal immigrants that was not factually accurate...
I guess we'll BOTH be waiting a while, eh Sonny Jim.. :D
Michale
Dear competent CW readers,
Sucked in by the chat bot again!! :D
This is fun... heh
Michale
JFC,
Your problem is you assume that you are right and you can't even entertain the possibility that someone who disagrees with you is right and you are wrong..
Basically it's religious fanaticism for the political arena...
Your god is the only true god and everyone else are infidels and blasphemers...
You could change it all, you could turn your entire life around with three little words...
Feel free to use the TOMCAT, the STAR TREK or the Michale example... :D
Michale
The problem is trying to assign a vary varied group by the examples of a tiny sliver of that group. Every group has good and bad.
By definition, there is no "sliver" of criminality amongst the ILLEGAL immigrant group..
They are all, BY DEFINITION, criminals..
The only manner in which to separate them is by the SERIOUSNESS of their crimes..
I readily concede that not all ILLEGAL immigrants are rapists..
I readily concede that not all ILLEGAL immigrants are murderers or killers..
I readily concede that not all ILLEGAL immigrants are drug dealers....
But two things are plainly evident and part of the FACTUAL record...
ALL *ILLEGAL* immigrants are criminals..
And enough of them ARE part of the afore mentioned groups as to take a long hard look at the ENTIRE group...
I mean, honestly??
This group is KILLING innocent Americans.
RAPING innocent Americans..
ROBBING innocent Americans..
ATTACKING innocent Americans...
Is their vote more important than that!??
Whose side are the Democrats on???
Michale
"I am still waiting for you to point to the statements that Trump made regarding illegal immigrants that was not factually accurate."
. . . and once again I'll have to point out that I have not said anything about him making inaccurate statements. Please ask your programmer to work on your reading comprehension. I will not be defending Republican attacks on Trump. If you want to know what the Republicans say is inaccurate about his statements, you should go read what those Republicans have to say about that subject.
. . . or you could just keep trolling, I mean winning!
It's been awesome watching Republicans embrace a celebrity candidate. Just think of the stadiums full of adoring fans who'll flock to see a game show host live. He needs somebody like Obama Girl to make YouTube videos. She should be Mexican because the Hispanics are such great people and they love Donald. Trump Chick doesn't need to be a grass-roots thing. He could pay her like he does the people who come to his speeches.
. . . and once again I'll have to point out that I have not said anything about him making inaccurate statements.
Of course you have..
EVERYONE here has..
But as usual, when ya'all get called on it ya just ignore it or deny it...
But hay... I am a fair guy..
If you want to concede right here and now that Trump has NOT made any inaccurate statements regarding illegal immigrants, I am willing to hear your confession.. :D
I await your inane and totally irrelevant response.. :D
Ya know...
It's sad enough that you continue to debate with what you claim to be is a chat bot..
It's sadder still when the so-called "chat bot" continues to kick yer ass.... :D
Michale
CW,
Here's a point to consider..
Percentage-wise, something like .0001% of gun owners actually go on a rampage and commit mass murder with their guns..
Yet the Left sees nothing wrong with penalizing ALL gun owners for the actions of the very VERY VERY small percentage...
Yet, percentage wise, 5%, 10%, 20% or even more illegal immigrants kill, attack, murder, rob and rape hundreds of thousands of Americans...
Yet, the Left sees NOTHING wrong with allowing illegal immigration to continue AND expand beyond all reason...
Can anyone explain this gross inconsistency??
I can...
The vast majority of gun owners don't vote Democrat...
'Nuff said...
And thus ends the debate on this topic...
Michale
Still waiting for someone... ANYONE... to point out the error in Trump's statements regarding illegal immigrants..
Do you think it's possible that Trump has it ass-backwards?
That is to say, could it be that most illegal immigrants are not rapists nor quilty of crimes other than being an illegal immigrant but that some are?
That is to say, could it be that most illegal immigrants are not rapists nor quilty of crimes other than being an illegal immigrant but that some are?
I don't think Trumps point was to put a numeric figure on the issue..
The point is, is that there ARE illegals who are killing and murdering and raping and assaulting innocent Americans..
Whether it's 60% or 6% of illegals who do it, the point is, is that it is being done..
And no one wants to acknowledge.. Not in Washington, not in Weigantia...
When we have a Trayvon Martin or a Michael Brown, Obama is ALL over it..
When we have a Kathleen Steinle or a Jamiel Shaw??
{{chiirrrrrpppp}} {{chirrrrrppppppp}}
And THAT sucks...
It's not a numbers or percentage issue.. It's a Public Safety issue that the Left ignores for the sake of votes...
I think that is Trump's point.
And it's a point that is dead on ballz accurate...
Like I said above...
Democrats want to penalize ALL gun owners because of the actions of .00001% of the group...
Far FAR higher percentage of illegal immigrants are MURDERING Americans. RAPING Americans..
Yet Democrats want MORE illegal immigration..
Where is the logic??
The "logic" can be found in the fact that illegal immigrant criminals overwhelmingly vote for Democrats...
Michale
CW,
The problem we all have with Trump (and many Repulicans) is their propensity to assign group guilt from one or two examples. Thus, an immigrant kills someone, therefore all immigrants are murderers and rapists.
Ya mean like ya'all do to Republicans?? Gun Owners?? Christians?? Any group that doesn't think the way the Left wants them to think??
ONE Republican is a cheat or a liar so ALL Republicans must be bad...
ONE christian is a homophobic bigot so ALL christians are homophobic bigots..
ONE gun owner goes postal and kills a bunch of people so ALL gun owners are psychotic crazies...
It does work both ways, don'tcha know.. :D
Bashi,
When you say all ears you really mean with ear plugs in, under shooting ear muffs, in a sound proofed cave, a few hundred miles away muttering na, na, na, na, right?
From where I am sitting it looks like it's YOU who has their fingers in their ears, shouting NYAAAA NYAAAAA NYAAAA, eh??
Don't want to address the fact that ya'all continue to talk about IMMIGRANTS when the discussion is ILLEGAL immigrants??
Just keep in mind, it's not I who runs away from a debate when the facts don't go my way.. :D
Michale
Ya mean like ya'all do to Republicans?? Gun Owners?? Christians?? Any group that doesn't think the way the Left wants them to think??
For the record, that "ya'all" refers to the Left in general rather than any specific Weigantian...
Just so we're clear.. :D
Michale
I'm really glad you cleared that up, Michale ... :)
I'm really glad you cleared that up, Michale ... :)
With a couple exceptions, there are no "run o the mill" Lefties in Weigantia :D
Michale
I didn't ignore it then and I won't ignore it now..
Everything you and Bashi say about IMMIGRANTS is perfectly true and factual..
It's also perfectly true and factual that everything you and Bashi say about IMMIGRANTS is completely, unequivocally IRRELEVANT to the discussion of ILLEGAL immigrants.
Which IS the topic...
Well, I am glad we got that pesky "ignoring" issue settled, eh?? :D
Michale
Michale wrote:
"Yet Democrats want MORE illegal immigration.."
That is both patently untrue and a silly statement. If Liberals and Democrats want MORE illegal immigration, then why has Obama deported MORE illegal immigrants than any OTHER President in history? The why did Senate Democrats support a bi-partisan bill that strengthened border security?
What Democrats and Liberals are actually trying to get Republicans to acknowledge is the following:
1) That short of turning the USA into a walled off police state like the former East Germany, the border is already about as secure as you are going to be able to make it. It WILL NEVER be PERFECTLY secure because that is IMPOSSIBLE.
2) That also short of turning the USA in a police state version of East Germany, you are also NEVER going to be able to round up and deport EVERY SINGLE ONE of the 11 MILLION illegal immigrants who are already here. So, unless you want them to become a PERMANENT CRIMINAL UNDERCLASS, who are actually susceptible to terrorism like the unassimilated Moslems in Europe in Germany and France, you HAVE TO PROVIDE then with a pathway to EVENTUAL LEGALIZATION and CITIZENSHIP.
3.) You also have to remember that war, economics, and poverty are what drive illegal immigration. If the American economy was worse, or the Mexican economy was better, there would be no mass movement across the border. Which is in fact, what we have seen historically over the last few years. Also, if AMERICANS and American CORPORATIONS, would STOP HIRING illegal immigrants, then the majority of illegal immigrants would have a DISINCENTIVE to STOP COMING. Illegal immigration, like the drug trade, does not exist in a vacuum. Without DEMAND there would not be a corresponding SUPPLY to the extent that there is.
That is both patently untrue and a silly statement. If Liberals and Democrats want MORE illegal immigration, then why has Obama deported MORE illegal immigrants than any OTHER President in history? The why did Senate Democrats support a bi-partisan bill that strengthened border security?
Yea, that's the claim..
No proof of it, but it sounds good, eh?? :D
All of that rhetoric and yet.. You STILL ignore Jamiel Shaw, Kathleen Steinle and the other hundreds of thousands of Americans who are killed, murdered, raped, robbed, assaulted and attacked by illegal immigrants..
"Gee! I wonder why that is!!!"
-Kevin Spacey, THE NEGOTIATOR
Don't want to address the fact that ya'all continue to talk about IMMIGRANTS when the discussion is ILLEGAL immigrants??
Actually whenever I have responded to a discussion about illegal immigration, I always post the illegal immigrant statistics when I can find them. Which are re-markedly unstudied. Most of the studies from the right have all sorts of problems from your pedantic and disingenuous "there all criminals because they are here illegally". Or the studies look at federal prisons which give a very distorted view as most of the violent and property crimes are handled at the state level and the state statistics are much less scary.
The left studies have their own problems and generally under estimate the level of crime. The best I can figure out from reading the opinions of journalists who have followed this story a long time and the few organizations who really do less biased studies is illegal immigrants commit violent and property crimes at about the same per capita rate as legal immigrants and normal citizens. Probably slightly less but statistically insignificant than those who are here legally. That means freaking out about and trying to close the borders and deport mass amounts of people will reduce crime only in direct proportion to the lowering the population. It's a placebo that ignores other more pressing problems. But hey, it makes for great political grand standing...
All of that rhetoric and yet.. You STILL ignore Jamiel Shaw, Kathleen Steinle and the other hundreds of thousands of Americans who are killed, murdered, raped, robbed, assaulted and attacked by illegal immigrants..
Are you ever going to back this up? Is it per year? Total numbers? What? And what is your source?
“My son’s name was Joshua Wilkerson. On November 16, 2010, he was beaten, strangled, tortured until he died. He was tied up, thrown in a field, and set on fire. His killer, Hermilo Moralez, was brought here illegally by his illegal parents when he was ten years old, so he fit the ‘DREAM’ kid description. He was sentenced to life in prison, which means it will be 30 years before he’s up for parole. He’ll be a 49-year-old man, who I don’t expect to be deported. And I just hope he doesn’t come to live in your city.”
-Laura Wilkerson
There are THOUSANDS of Laura Wilkersons in this country...
Ya'all get hysterical when some gun nut psycho shoots and kills 9 people...
HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS of Americans are being killed and murdered and raped and robbed and attacked and assaulted by illegal immigrant criminals..
The response from the Left??
WE NEED MORE ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION!!!!
I mean, I could understand it if there was a MORAL reason.. An ETHICAL reason..
But to turn away from Americans being butchered and raped...
FOR VOTES???!!!
FOR AN IDEOLOGY??!!!!
Well, that's just pathetic...
Michale
Are you ever going to back this up? Is it per year? Total numbers? What? And what is your source?
THAT's your excuse??
You won't address it because it's not sourced?? :D
Well, if that's what ya need to help you sleep at night.... :D
Michale
he left studies have their own problems and generally under estimate the level of crime. The best I can figure out from reading the opinions of journalists who have followed this story a long time and the few organizations who really do less biased studies is illegal immigrants commit violent and property crimes at about the same per capita rate as legal immigrants and normal citizens. Probably slightly less but statistically insignificant than those who are here legally.
OK, so you are saying that, since ILLEGAL immigrants commit about the same amount of crime, we don't need to worry about getting rid of them...
So basically, we have the crime rate divided into thirds..
1/3 of the violent crimes committed are committed by US citizens.. Just for the sake of clarity, let's put the number at 1 million.. 1 million murders, deaths and rapes..
OK...
So, ANOTHER 1/3 of rapes, murders and deaths are committed by LEGAL immigrants... 1 million...
Logically then, the final 1/3 of rapes murders and deaths are committed by ILLEGAL immigrants.. Another 1 million...
Well, obviously we can't do anything about keeping 2/3rds of the committers of crimes out of the country. After all, they are citizens or legal immigrants..
But hay.... We **COULD** do something about 1/3 of the crime committers... We could save ONE MILLION LIVES if we just do something about the ILLEGAL immigrants.
Awww, why bother....
Oh look!!! Some scumbag just brutally killed 9 people in a church!! Now THAT is something we can worry about!!! THAT is something we can really rally against!!
I KNOW!!! Let's BAN the Confederate Battle Flag!!!! *THAT* will solve all the problems..
Yea.... Ya'all are being PERFECTLY logical about the whole thing...
:^/
Michale
THAT's your excuse??
I think you are bullshitting and I am calling you on it. I would also like to throw much bigger numbers at you. That how you are still much more likely to be "killed and murdered and raped and robbed and attacked and assaulted" by good old American citizens. But I need the source to do the math.
Now if you are afraid of a factual response, keep holding the cards close to your vest. I can see your level of political grandstanding is up there with the best of both parties. I guess it's not the left/right are all the same but time to throw the independents in there was well...
Are you ever going to back this up? Is it per year? Total numbers? What? And what is your source?
OK OK, I'll start you off easy...
Jamiel Shaw....
Michale
1/3 of the violent crimes committed are committed by US citizens.. Just for the sake of clarity, let's put the number at 1 million.. 1 million murders, deaths and rapes..
And when you say "clarity" you mean gross overestimation? Trying to throw out big scary numbers without backing them up is grandstanding...
Oh look!!! Some scumbag just brutally killed 9 people in a church!! Now THAT is something we can worry about!!! THAT is something we can really rally against!!
Please point out the post that I did that...
Yea.... Ya'all are being PERFECTLY logical about the whole thing...
At least I'm not just making shit up.
OK OK, I'll start you off easy...
Jamiel Shaw....
And I'll raise you the other 37 people who on average were murdered that day. What about them?
So, it's all a numbers game, eh??
Hundreds of thousands of dead Americans is abhorrent, even if it means more Democrat votes..
So, what's the magic number??
Is ten thousand dead Americans worth it for the Dem votes??
A thousand dead Americans??
A hundred dead Americans??
"How many does it take, Admiral!!??"
-Captain Jean Luc Picard
Michale
And I'll raise you the other 37 people who on average were murdered that day. What about them?
What about them??
Yea... That's about what I would expect..
"What about the dead Americans!?? Who cares!!??"
Michale
Oh, the hysteria!
Keep on grandstanding dude, the Donald would be proud!
Please point out the post that I did that.
I like you, Bashi..
But not every comment I make is about you.. :D
Oh, the hysteria!
While I wouldn't exactly call it hysterical, yea... I do get a tad miffed when innocent Americans are brutally murdered because Democrats want more votes...
Michale
But hay...
I'll throw you a bone..
http://pjmedia.com/jchristianadams/2015/07/22/alien-crime-wave-in-texas-611234-crimes-2993-murders/
There ya go... Nit pick away...
Debate what the definition of 'is' is to your heart's content... :D
You'll just be doing it with yourself.. :D
Michale
I'll throw you a bone..
Yup, exactly what I was talking about. Notice all the big scary numbers are always mentioned with only "aliens" and then "illegal aliens" are tossed in here and there? Just "aliens" refers to all aliens legal or not. Also the big exact scary number with total crimes but a vague much lower estimation for homicides and sexual assaults? Classic. The left does a version of this as well...
If you are going to accuse us of only looking at legal immigration (or more accurately all immigration both legal and illegal, as that's were the numbers are) you might want to keep your house in order first.
The other thing is they mention they got this information from an unreleased "Texas DPS report on human smuggling". I can find no evidence that the Texas DPS does a "human smuggling" report but it does do a "human trafficking" report which is released. Now this report confirms what I have been saying. Your placebo issue covers up real problems. There are victims in illegal immigration but the majority are to the illegals themselves. Pretty Horrifically according to the report.
So we agree that there are "real problems"...
And many of those "real problems" would be resolved by better border security and better immigration enforcement..
Get rid of the criminals...
Michale
I am glad we can agree.. :D
Michale