New Poll Shakes Up GOP Race (Below Trump)
The entire political punditry world has been holding its collective breath since last Thursday night, waiting for some polling numbers to interpret. As usual, polling takes longer than most people think. The first Republican debate, after all, was held Thursday night. Most pollsters take at least two days to conduct a poll, then maybe another day of number-crunching, before the results are made public. Due to this process, a lot of new polls will likely appear in the next two or three days. NBC beat them all to the punch, though, and released their first poll results over the weekend. The numbers -- if they prove to be valid, and not outliers -- show a remarkable shakeup happening in public opinion as a direct result of the debates, at least in the field right below the frontrunner. One question in particular from this poll seems to show some very bad news for the Republican Party, but before we get to that let's take a look at the whole field.
Before the debates, Donald Trump was in first place with 22 percent. After the debates, Trump is still in first place with 23 percent. But the standings just below Trump got shaken up in a fairly big way. Before the debates, Jeb Bush and Scott Walker were tied for second with 10 percent each. Tied for fourth were Ben Carson and Marco Rubio, each with 8 percent. Tied for sixth place were Ted Cruz and Rand Paul, both with 6 percent. None of the other candidates had even 5 percent support.
Post-debate, the only two first-tier candidates who held their position were Donald Trump (in the lead) and Marco Rubio (still tied for fourth). The closest to Trump's post-debate 23 percent was Ted Cruz, moving up from a sixth-place tie to claim second place with 13 percent. Ben Carson also got a boost, moving up from being tied for fourth place to sole possession of third place, with 11 percent. Behind these three were Carly Fiorina and Marco Rubio, both at 8 percent support. The two big losers, however, were Jeb Bush and Scott Walker, who moved from being tied for second place down to being tied for sixth place, with only 7 percent support. That's a pretty big drop for both of them, neither of whom can now claim to be even close to "frontrunner" status. Rand Paul and Mike Huckabee both got 5 percent, and no other candidate got better than 2 percent.
Measured by standings alone, there were two clear winners of the first Republican debates: Ted Cruz and Carly Fiorina. Cruz improved his standings from 6 to 13 percent, a whopping 7-point gain. Fiorina did almost as well, vaulting her way into the top tier with a 6-point improvement, moving from 2 to 8 percent. Fiorina, in one night, moved from eleventh place all the way up to fourth -- the biggest jump in standing of any candidate, by far. Ben Carson gained 3 points, and Donald Trump and Mike Huckabee both managed to climb by a single point. All the other candidates either stayed exactly the same (Rubio, Perry, Graham, Jindal, and Pataki), or saw their standings slip (Paul, Kasich, Santorum, Christie, Bush, and Walker) by anywhere from 1 to 3 points.
The poll asked a further two questions to see who people thought "won" and "lost" the debates. This provided some interesting context for the candidate rankings. Carly Fiorina was chosen as the debate winner by 22 percent of Republicans, followed by Donald Trump (18), Marco Rubio (13), Ted Cruz (12), Ben Carson (8), and Mike Huckabee (5). None of the others were named winners by even 4 percent of the respondents. The interesting anomaly in that data is Rubio, since he was chosen as debate winner by more people than anyone but Fiorina and Trump, but unlike all the others listed as winners, Rubio's voter support didn't budge an inch. Even Trump and Huckabee gained a point, but Rubio's perceived debate success didn't actually convince any voters to shift their support to him.
The data for who was perceived as the night's big loser was also interesting. By far, Donald Trump was picked as the loser of the debate, by 29 percent of people polled. This was more than double the showing of Rand Paul (the next on the list), who was named loser by 14 percent. Jeb Bush was next with 11 percent, followed by Chris Christie with 9 percent and Lindsey Graham with 8 percent. None of the other candidates was picked as the debate's big loser by more than 2 percent of Republicans. Obviously, this shows a big disconnect in the party ranks over Donald Trump, but I'll get to Trump in a moment. For the others, as could be expected, their overall voter support dropped as a result of their perceived loss in the debates. The only candidate in this list who didn't see a drop was Lindsey Graham, but that's not saying much because he went from polling at 1 percent to polling at 1 percent. There's not a whole lot of room for him to lose support, to put it politely (although Rick Santorum did manage to drop from 1 percent support clear down to zero).
What does all of this mean for the state of the Republican nomination race? Well, perhaps not much. This was a snap poll (obviously, since it came out before everyone else's). It may be inaccurate due to methodology, or it may merely be measuring people's momentary opinions. Give the voters a week, and they may rethink their positions. Of course, that can be said about just about any poll, but it is worth remembering that with the field in flux we're all going to have to wait a while to see how the dust settles.
Of course, what everyone's breathlessly waiting to see is whether (to twist a metaphor) the wooly mammoth at the elephant convention will lose support. Donald Trump followed the debate by unleashing lots of misogyny towards a Fox News personality, so the inside-the-Beltway consensus is that this is going to hurt him badly and his support is going to evaporate. This will likely turn out to be wrong, just as they were all wrong when Trump was insulting prisoners of war, or Mexico. This is because the punditocracy still can't manage to come to grips with Trump's appeal. Trump, love him or hate him, is at his core an entertainer. His entertainment value goes up when he says outrageous or offensive things, not down. He may be the most divisive candidate on the Republican side (and that's just measuring things among Republicans), but he has garnered a group of core supporters who literally do not care how offensive Trump is. They love it, in fact, whenever Trump verbally skewers someone -- even a Fox News personality.
Trump's divisiveness is obvious -- 18 percent of Republicans thought he won the debate, and 29 percent thought he lost. That's 47 percent who picked his name as either loser or winner, rather than the other 16 candidates available. Carly Fiorina only got a total of 24 percent (22 percent thought she won, 2 percent thought she lost) -- barely more than half of the attention Trump received. There are Republicans who love Trump and there are obviously Republican voters who don't think so highly of The Donald. Trump phoned in appearances on some of this week's Sunday morning political chatfests, and he made a boast that is probably pretty close to reality. He claimed that he was the sole reason 24 million people watched the debate, and if he hadn't been on stage, the audience would have been maybe two million. It's hard to contradict this, because whatever the numbers, Trump is right -- a whole bunch of people tuned in just to hear what he would say. Whatever percentage of these were liberals delighted with the whole Trump phenomenon and however many were actual Republican voters interested in vetting their party's candidates, that's still an impressive measure of Trump's personal draw when it comes to television and entertainment value.
But I saved the scariest part (for the Republican Party) for last. Due to Trump's refusal to commit to not running as a third-party candidate, the NBC poll asked a very direct question. This question was only asked to people who said they were going to vote for Trump, to try and gauge what his own supporters thought of an independent Trump run. The exact wording of the question: "If Donald Trump does not win the Republican nomination for president and runs as an independent candidate, for whom would you vote?"
Only 19 percent of Trump's supporters answered "the Republican candidate." Zero percent of Trump's supporters answered "the Democratic candidate" (no surprise there, really). A significant number of Trump supporters -- 21 percent -- answered with some flavor of "it would depend." But a whopping 54 percent of Trump voters would stick with him and vote for him as an independent candidate. This means that the Republican Party would win back one-fifth of Trump's voters if he went independent, and perhaps convince another one-fifth to come back to the party for the general election. But over half of those who now support Trump would stick with him and leave the Republican nominee in the lurch.
To me, this proves the Pollyannas inside the Beltway are missing the depth of Trump's support. Trump isn't going to fade away (like, say, Herman Cain did) and leave all his supporters milling about, deciding which Republican to now back. This "he'll fade away... somehow" conventional wisdom is nothing more than wishful thinking, in fact, from conservatives who are getting more and more worried about where this whole Trump road is leading. Again, over half of Trump's supporters are already poised to leave the party to follow Trump. Seeing as how he's polling at around one-fourth of the entire Republican electorate, that's a fairly sizeable chunk of the Republican base to lose.
Republican Party leaders are now desperately trying to convince themselves that Trump would never actually run as an independent, and that even if he did nobody would follow him. I look at it a different way. Do you really think Donald Trump would pass up a chance to appear on a general election debate stage with only (say) Hillary Clinton and Jeb Bush standing next to him? Does anyone really think his ego wouldn't be delighted to be one of only three people on a presidential debate stage? Trump could easily convince himself that the bar for winning the White House would actually be lower if he ran as an independent (he could theoretically win with just 35 percent of the vote, after all). And with 54 percent of his voters already willing to follow him on such a run, it may indeed prove irresistible for Trump.
While the second-through-eighth places in the Republican horserace may be in the midst of a major post-debate reshuffling -- the first such shakeup that has so far happened in the 2016 race -- Donald Trump is not only still leading the Republican pack, but indeed he is still all anyone can even talk about. We'll see what all the other polls which come out this week have to say about Republican voters' opinions, but if the NBC poll is right, Trump is still dominating the field in a way no other GOP candidate yet has. Whether the inside-the-Beltway pundits want to admit it or not.
-- Chris Weigant
Cross-posted at The Huffington Post
Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant
Relevant fact: both Cruz and Trump have paid for good press at Breitbart Noise, um, 'News.' For some reason, Cruz's super PAC gave Fiorina money. So there's a weird dynamic at work in these results which reflects the money being thrown around.
What is really interesting is watching FoxNews try to "reason" with their viewers about Donald Trump.
They attacked him from "the left" and FoxNews ends up looking like the "liberal media" (which, of course, all good conservatives have been trained to ignore).
I think they'll get him eventually if they want to. Fox simply has too much power. Even for Trump.
It's really clear they don't like him though. Even though he delivered the biggest ratings for a primary ever.
-David
One time you were my baby chicken
Now you've grown into a Fox
Once upon a time I was your little rooster
Now am I just one of your cocks?
It's rough justice, oh yeah
You're gonna have to trust me
It's rough justice, but you know I'll never break your heart
- The Glimmer Twins
Well, if Donald is going to be president, we might as well make the best of it. Maybe we could each try to say something nice about him. I'll start. I could actually say more than one thing.
I like that he is transparently mocking the faithers with his fake religion. It's difficult to believe that they could be unclear about who he worships.
Best case scenario for Dems - if these numbers hold up (which they undoubtedly won't -- it's too soon) could be Cruz for Repubs, Trump as an Independent, and the Dem. Cruz is a nasty guy without Trump's entertainment value. I think a lot of Repubs, faced with that choice, would either vote Dem or stay home (those unwilling to vote for Trump.)
I'm from Ohio btw and I don't like Kasich. The only decent thing he did was accept the Medicaid dollars for ACA. He didn't bother with an Exchange. He's backed off of some things -- some union busting efforts and voter suppression efforts, but he would have let them happen if the outcry hadn't been so vociferous. He's dangerous because, in comparison to the sheer nut-cases he appears sort of moderate and reasonable. But that's because the right is so far right.
I'd like to know when somebody, anybody will finally realize that Trump has never had any intention of mounting a campaign for POTUS and stop taking seriously his faux run for the presidency.
And, by stop taking seriously I mean stop providing him with a platform for exposing himself as a complete fraud and anti-intellectual.
The attention he has been getting - which is the sole point of his entry into this race - has long since become ridiculous and should, by now, be reflecting poorly on those providing the attention.
. Donald Trump followed the debate by unleashing lots of misogyny towards a Fox News personality,
Let's face it.. What Trump said about whats-er-name is nothing compared the misogynist (cant's we just uses 'sexist'?? It's so much easier to spell!! :D ) insults hurled from the Left...
As for the Trump candidacy... Ya'll just don't get it. It's the WHY that is important..
By continuing to ignore the WHY, ya'all are setting yourself up for a W.T.F. moment that ya'all may never recover from. :D
Personally I think Trump is an arrogant prick and I can't see myself voting for him at all.. A third Party bid by him would be a disaster for this country...
But I can appreciate the WHY of his campaign... Any other candidate that can connect with the WHY of Trump's campaign will be a serious contender..
Michale
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/bernie-sanders-retreats-before-black-lives-matter-protestors/article/2569975
One only needs to see how Sanders and O'malley were attacked and bullied by the BLM morons to understand the appeal that Trump has on the electorate...
Michale
I mean, seriously.. Imagine the fireworks if those BLM dolts tried to take over a TRUMP stage!!! :D
Would be a beautiful site to behold.. :D
Michale
This is a difficult poll to interpret. The questions are geared to a single TV debate. Wording matters a lot in polling, as does the order you ask the questions. Given its specialized nature, there is nothing you can really compare it to, so it's outlier by definition.
For all that, the NBC poll missed the critical snapshot by about a day. The really interesting question is whether Trump's Megan Kelly remark will alter the trajectory of the race in any meaningful way.
The Republican Establishment Wing is sending messages that suggest to me they believe Trump's negatives are spiking, or about to spike. The establishment may be looking at hard data, or maybe its just a gut feeling among seasoned pros. Speaking of gut feelings, I suspect a lot of adult under garments are arriving at national and regional HQs. They agree with CW - Trump is not going to fade, and he is going to make a 3rd party bid. It's the old scorpion/frog story.
“Every night before I go to bed, I light a candle and pray that he stays in the race and I also pray that no one puts that candle anywhere near his hair,”
Stephen Colbert
Hey, I just read that Rick Perry pawned his glasses. His staff is wearing saffron robes and begging for change down at the airport.
A metadata set on Trump's favorability/unfavorability can be found here:
http://www.pollingreport.com/S-Z.htm#Trump
Nate Silver has a good discussion on this and other matters Trump over at 538. Trump unfavorable to favorable percentages are consistently about 60%:30% and this has been true for months.
The link has comparable data on other candidates, so you can compare and contrast.
Clinton should be worried by her favorability scores among independents...and the fact they have trended down . On the other hand (center right hand?), JEB! is faring much like Hillary.
Walker and Cruz are doing relatively well, mostly because a high percentage of respondents are saying "don't know" or "never heard of him/her." Laying low might be a good strategy right now.
Ya'll just don't get it. It's the WHY that is important.
What is this "why"?
"Every night before I go to bed, I light a candle and pray that he stays in the race and I also pray that no one puts that candle anywhere near his hair."
Seriously. And please let Ted Cruz speak more. And Bush III ... he sounds so insincere. Like he just wishes he could phone in his speech. And bring back Herman Cain ... $9.99 pizza for everyone!
-David
LIZ - 6
"And, by stop taking seriously I mean stop providing him with a platform for exposing himself as a complete fraud and anti-intellectual."
At the very least, that would require a handshake between Fox News and the GOP Establishment Wing. I don't see that being in the best business interests of FOX, but maybe Rupert can fix that. I'll bet Rupert is getting a lot of calls....putting folks on hold....enjoying the hell out of life. "It very good to be a Media King."
TS,
Well, I pay no attention to FOX News.
I was talking about the more serious media outlets ... and, blogs, for that matter. :)
Imagine how much ya'all would laugh when Rush Limbaugh started dictating to the Democrat Party how to run their campaigns and how to keep their candidates toeing the line...
That's how much I am laughing now.. :D
Michale
Clinton should be worried by her favorability scores among independents...and the fact they have trended down .
Something I have been saying for months...
But it's nice to get confirmation, eh? :D
Michale
I simply must congratulate Apple on the cleverness of their
OS. I temporarily set up my preferences so I could use the Spanish ¡JEB! In my posts.
Then I reset my preferences to English My tablet remembers this and thinks I might want to do it again. My keyboard menu has been changed so that i can toggle between English and Spanish.
I wonder if the emoticon toggle works on CW.com?
????
“I’m just going to show up, and when I’m told to show up, I’ll be there and looking forward to it."
-Hillary Clinton on DNC Debate Schedule
Now THAT's leadership!!!
{/snark}
Michale
M-18
"Something I have been saying for months..."
But, you haven't been saying that. You have consistently said, in various ways, she will crash and burn, scandal will crush her and she won't even get the nomination!
I'm saying she should worry, not that she should panic, fall down and wait for death.
So at best, this is weak confirmation of what you have been saying. :)
But, you haven't been saying that. You have consistently said, in various ways, she will crash and burn, scandal will crush her and she won't even get the nomination!
I actually have been saying both..
She IS going to crash and burn..
AND
She (and, incidentally, ya'all) SHOULD BE WORRIED about her downhill trajectory...
Michale
M -18
Hillary is solidly favorable with Democrats = 79% or there about.
Jeb! does well with his base too (68%) but not as well as Hillary. Neither is exactly setting Independents on fire, but JEB!'s numbers are marginally better.
Walker is viewed less favorably by his base (42%)than Bush is.
Rubio's favorable + unfavorable are just about equal to his don't know.
Who does a third party Trump hurt more? Clinton or JEB!/Walker/Rubio/other?
That's what I mean by worry. No serious candidate can rest easily at this time. Trump isn't a serious candidate, which makes him the unflappable Alfred E. Neuman of the 2016 season.
‘Top Secret’ emails found as Clinton probe expands to key aides
http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/nation-world/national/article30714762.html
Someone said something about "Crash and Burn"???
:D
Face the facts people...
Hillary is tainted goods...
Micahle
I'd like to know when somebody, anybody will finally realize that Trump has never had any intention of mounting a campaign for POTUS
How do you tell?
akadjian [2] -
Actually, Ailes waved the white flag and surrendered to Trump. Trump's bigger than Fox News right now. Who'd a thunk it?
:-)
John From Censornati [4] -
Say something nice? Hmmm... "Couldn't have happened to a nicer political party." How's that?
Oh, wait, you meant sincerely?
LizM [6] -
But it's just so much fun! Heh. Especially how the other Republicans are now terrified of him.
TheStig [10] -
Or maybe it's just wishful thinking among the establishmentarians...
[12] -
OK, now THAT was funny! I'd love to hear "hari krishna" in a Texas accent... heh...
LizM [16] -
Oh, I hear you, but we're "reality-based," remember. I'm not responsible for the current reality, but I do have to comment on it!
:-)
TheStig [19] -
Apple's always been good with character sets and internationalization/localization issues. And yes, at least on my screen "¡JEB!" showed up correctly.
:-)
As for emoticons, I'm old school.
;-)
-CW
Chris,
I'm not responsible for the current reality, but I do have to comment on it!
Of course, you do.
I'm just waiting for a political analyst worth his own salt to comment on the reality that Trump is not in this race to be POTUS.
How do you tell?
Are you kidding?
Even Trump knows that there is zero chance of him becoming POTUS.
But, here's Trump's tell: the higher he goes in the polls, the more outrageous behavior he exhibits.
But, here's Trump's tell: the higher he goes in the polls, the more outrageous behavior he exhibits.
Trump's behavior is only "outrageous" to the political class... The "professional" pundits and media king/queen makers...
To Joe and Jane Fourpack??
Trump is a breath of fresh air...
"She's a breath of fresh ass... I mean a breast of fresh air..."
-Artimus Gordon, WILD WILD WEST
:D
Michale
TS,
You have consistently said, in various ways, she will crash and burn, scandal will crush her and she won't even get the nomination!
FBI conducting a criminal probe...
Hillary forced to give up her un-secured home-brew mailserv...
Close aids now under investigations.....
Yes.. I have said that she will crash and burn and that scandals will crush her... :D
Michale
“I think that in an age where so much information is flying through cyberspace, we all have to be aware of the fact that some information which is sensitive, which does affect the security of individuals and relationships, deserves to be protected and we will continue to take necessary steps to do so.”
-Hillary Clinton
https://firstlook.org/theintercept/2015/08/12/hillary-clinton-sanctity-protecting-classified-information/
A perfect example of Hillary's "Rules and laws are for thee and not for me." attitude..
And THIS is the person ya'all want to vote for POTUS???
Michale
Even Trump knows that there is zero chance of him becoming POTUS.
Ok: he's not running to win the office. But is he running to be the Republican nominee? It would get him in the history books, right alongside H. Ross Perot.
dsws,
It's possible but, I tend to think he'd mess his pants if he actually became the nominee. :)
By the way, have you ever seen The Candidate with Robert Redford... NOT AT ALL comparable to Trump but, I was just reminded of it ...
I don't think I've seen it, no.
Robert Redford plays an idealistic California lawyer who decides that one way to start making positive changes in the political process and a positive impact on the critical issues is to run for public office - US Senate - knowing full well, of course, that he doesn't have a chance of actually winning the seat against a very strong (read: established political insider) incumbent.
He runs on the condition that he has final say over all of his campaign operatives on all aspects of the campaign and that he will speak only in the most candid manner. Which is just fine with his handlers - right up until it looks like his manner is resonating with the voters and that he might just win! Then, it's a interesting look at how a campaign can start to run the candidate.
I won't say any more - you should really take a look at it. I think you'll really like it!
LizM -
I just watched Bulworth, which has a similar theme, but with lots of lame white-guy-rapping in it.
No, really, except for the rap (truly bad), the movie itself is also an interesting watch about the whole "tell it like it is on the campaign trail" idea.
-CW
Chris,
Do you think President Obama still dreams about going Bulworth? :)
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/william-bradley/going-bulworth-the-first-_b_3322487.html