Who Will Exit The Race First?
I am no different than most other political commentators, in at least two respects. I love a good presidential race, and I mostly only pay attention to the frontrunners on both sides. To put this another way, I don't write many articles about Jim Webb's campaign or how Lindsey Graham is fairing. So today, in the midst of the political dog days of August, I thought I'd concentrate on the bottom end of the polls, in an attempt to answer the question: "Who will drop out first?"
So far, we have 22 major candidates in the race for the Democratic and Republican nominations. We may even get another one, if Lawrence Lessig is successful in his just-announced gimmicky bid to run for president. This is a full field -- the fullest in anyone's memory, in fact. But because it is such a large field, it is inevitable that some of them are going to fade away fairly quickly. Both Rick Santorum and Rick Perry seem to be out of money already (Perry reportedly just put all his campaign staffers on volunteer basis, since he couldn't make the payroll). But while running out of money usually stops a candidacy in its tracks, this is not always true. Some candidacies are closer to crusades than anything else -- true-believers in one cause or another that won't quit no matter what happens (at least, until the primaries get underway). And in the new Citizens United world, super PACs mean even a technically-broke candidate can still be out there running television ads. So picking the early exits isn't as easy as it might seem.
Let's start with the Democratic side, since it's a smaller field. We've got five announced candidacies, one gimmick announcement today, and one possibility still waiting in the wings. I'm just going to assume for the sake of argument that both Lawrence Lessig and Joe Biden actually do run. If both do throw their hats in the ring, however, my guess is that they wouldn't be among the first to drop out. Biden is a major player in the Democratic Party, so he'd have the money to at least make it to the primaries (as far as Super Tuesday, for sure). Lessig would be running as a political science experiment, and therefore running out of money likely won't mean he'll actually stop his campaign. He'll stick it out until the early primaries just to see the results of his gimmickry.
Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders both are likely in the race for the long haul. This leaves three candidates as possible early exiters: Martin O'Malley, Lincoln Chafee, and Jim Webb. Of the three, I think O'Malley is actually running to be Hillary's veep, so I expect him to stay in for a while to remind her who he is, but then to gracefully bow out after the initial primaries, and immediately throw his support behind her campaign. The other two men running have little chance of attracting either voter attention or campaign dollars, since they're both essentially running vanity campaigns. Picking who drops out first is a coin-toss, but I'll go ahead and say Chafee drops out before Webb. I think Webb's got a few bigger donors than Chafee, to put it a different way.
On the Republican side, of course, there are 17 people running. It's tough even for political wonks to remember all their names, in fact. Because the field is so much larger, I'm going to pick five candidates who won't be able to go the distance. Surprisingly, even with his current money troubles, I don't think Rick Perry will be among the first five to leave the race. Perry's campaign may be broke, but his super PAC has already raised at least $17 million, which many of the other candidates can't match.
Of course, I may get the order of these five wrong, but I'm pretty confident at least three or four of these five will be among the early exiters on the Republican side. The first two are the easiest names to forget, when contemplating the Republican field. They're polling so low that they aren't even included on the massive Real Clear Politics poll-tracking chart of all GOP candidates (their software seems to only allow for 15 candidates to be listed). Guessing whether Jim Gilmore or George Pataki will exit first is another coin-flip, but I'm going to go ahead and pick Gilmore for the first exit, with Pataki close behind. Even in the extremely crowded Republican field, both men's candidacies came as somewhat of a surprise, which led immediately to two questions: "Who?'" and "Why in the world would he think he has a chance?"
The third candidate to quit will quite likely be Lindsey Graham. Now, I realize Graham has a national presence (he's on television whenever the war question even arises), and his name recognition is a lot higher than many Republican candidates. But it's just not enough this time around. Graham's sole issue is being as jingoistic as possible, with promises to bomb or invade any country that even looks at us in a belligerent fashion. Even so, there's not much to actually distinguish this stance from most of the other Republicans running. With the sole exception of Rand Paul, bombing and invading is on everyone else's agenda as well, but the other candidates also have other issues to run on. Graham does not. He's a one-trick pony. He's also smart enough to realize when he's in a losing battle, and he'll pull out early due to going broke and never topping five percent in the polls. He's still got a comfy Senate seat, and he'll still be welcome on television for all the war chats, so pulling out of the presidential race won't be as psychologically devastating as it will be for others.
The next to go, in my opinion, will be Rick Santorum. He may even exit the race first, if the financial rumors are true. You've got to feel a little sorry for Santorum, because if this had been a politics-as-usual election, he would have won the Republican nomination. For half a century, Republican voters consistently picked the "next in line" guy -- the guy who ran the previous time and got close, but didn't win in the end. If Republicans had followed their traditional playbook, Santorum would have been the obvious choice, as he stayed in the race long enough last time to give Romney a real run at the very end. But my guess is that even Santorum will at some point see that this is just not in his cards this time around. The field is too crowded with others who appeal to Santorum's former voters. And if he's already low on cash, he's going to be hitchhiking to campaign appearances before too long. My guess is he won't find a sugar daddy to finance his campaign, and eventually he'll have to very sorrowfully shut the doors, turn out the lights, and go home.
Finally, the fifth person to exit the ring will be Bobby Jindal. Jindal was supposed to be the fresh-faced up-and-comer in the Republican Party, but his moment (what there was of one) has obviously passed. The voters just aren't that into Jindal anymore, as evidenced by the fact that President Obama is more popular in his home state right now than he is. That's a pretty dismal statistic for a red-state governor. And if he can't even win Louisiana, how is he ever going to win anyplace else? Jindal might have the money to stay in until the big primary day across the South, but when he gets crushed in the results, he'll beat a hasty retreat.
So, in order, those are my picks: Chafee, then Webb on the Democratic side; and Gilmore, Pataki, Graham, Santorum, and then Jindal on the Republican side. Some little-known names there, and some people who actually do have a national presence in politics (especially those last three Republicans). But the field is so full that even well-known candidates are in danger of voter apathy (to say nothing of donor apathy) this time around.
Don't agree with my picks? Let me hear yours, down in the comments.
-- Chris Weigant
Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant
I predict Chris Christie will stay in the race long after his welcome has clearly run out.
CW -
I'm wondering if the admittedly loose restrictions on SuperPac activities make Perry's 17 million $ super PAC hard to use in any useful way.
Perry needs to pay for office space, keep the lights and AC on at HQ, lease the bus, fuel the bus, pay staff and consultants, all of which are hard to envision as something a PAC can provide in an uncoordinated way. What kind of advance work can you expect when your uncoordinated PAC provides goods and services by means of public press conferences that your PAC watches at 6 o'clock on channel 45 Action News and Weather? The security implications alone are mind boggling!
What I'm basically saying is this: can Perry generate political heat with a full tank of propane but no pilot light? Maybe it boils down to " how broke is broke." What's his ranch worth?
Osborne Ink -
You could say the same about many of the candidates, in fact...
Heh.
TheStig -
Good point, but Perry's also got a few oil billionaires in his back pocket. I'm sure they can shake the trees enough for him to keep the lights on, at least for now.
-CW
To all -
Mostly, today's column was written to see if I could write about the 2016 election and not use the word "Trump" once.
LizM, you're welcome.
:-)
-CW
Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders both are likely in the race for the long haul.
Apparently, you haven't seen the recent headlines..
Hillary is toast.. :D
I really don't pay attention to primaries as I am not allowed to vote in them...
But I can't argue with your picks, so I won't.. :D
Michale
Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders both are likely in the race for the long haul.
Word is that Clinton transmitted TOP SECRET SCI (one of the US's highest security classifications) emails thru her private server..
The FBI has forced Hillary to turn over her private mailserver to the DOJ...
drip, drip, drip, drip....
One day, soon, ya'all are going to have to face up to the fact that your Democrat Party fundraiser is a liar and a cheat...
Of course, the same could be said about the GOP frontrunner, but at least he was successful at practically everything he did..
Clintonistas can't name one accomplishment of Hillary Clinton...
Clinton is toast...
Michale
Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders both are likely in the race for the long haul.
Word is that Clinton transmitted TOP SECRET SCI (one of the US's highest security classifications) emails thru her private server..
The FBI has forced Hillary to turn over her private mailserver to the DOJ...
drip, drip, drip, drip....
One day, soon, ya'all are going to have to face up to the fact that your Democrat Party frontrunner is a liar and a cheat...
Of course, the same could be said about the GOP frontrunner, but at least he was successful at practically everything he did..
Clintonistas can't name one accomplishment of Hillary Clinton...
Clinton is toast...
Michale
Carp...
Ignore #6.. It had a typo...
Michale
Mostly, today's column was written to see if I could write about the 2016 election and not use the word "Trump" once.
Great! I'll go ahead and read it, then. :)
Chris,
Biden is a major player in the Democratic Party, so he'd have the money to at least make it to the primaries (as far as Super Tuesday, for sure).
Only if he averts another fiasco in Iowa and garners more than 0.1% of the caucuses vote. Ahem.
And, then ... good luck to whomever the Democratic nominee happens to be ... because, another Iowa scenario like that and Biden may just quit politics, altogether. Who could blame him?
CW - 3
Shake a few trees, or look under the couch cushions. Yeah, it's Texas. : )
Apple emoticons show as question marks at cw.com.
Hillary is SOOO toast...
In short: Information at the “TOP SECRET//SI//TK//NOFORN” level is considered exceptionally highly classified and must be handled with great care under penalty of serious consequences for mishandling. Every person who is cleared and “read on” for access to such information signs reams of paperwork and receives detailed training about how it is to be handled, no exceptions—and what the consequences will be if the rules are not followed.
People found to have willfully mishandled such highly classified information often face severe punishment. Termination of employment, hefty fines, even imprisonment can result.
In the real world, people with high-level clearances are severely punished for willfully violating such rules. At a minimum, those suspected of mishandling things like NSA “signals intelligence”—intercepts calls, emails, and the like—have their clearances suspended pending the outcome of the investigation into their misconduct. Any personal items—computers, electronics—where federal investigators suspect the classified wound up, wrongly, will be impounded and searched. If it has TOP SECRET//SI information on it, “your” computer now belongs to the government, since it is considered classified.
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/08/12/the-spy-satellite-secrets-in-hillary-s-emails.html
Ya'all simply cannot deny reality any longer, people..
This isn't some FoxNews faux scandal.. This is some really serious shit that people have gone to jail over...
Michale
“I’m not sure they completely understand the credibility they are losing, by the second. At some point this goes from being something you can rationalize away to something that becomes political cancer. And we are getting pretty close to the cancer stage, because this is starting to get ridiculous.”
“Look, this is a classic example of the cover-up being ten times worse than the so-called crime — though in this case there wasn't a crime."
“The culture of secrecy that has surrounded the Clintons — understandably in some cases — has now yielded a situation where she did something that wasn't necessary and looks nefarious.”
-Democrat Party Strategists
Hillary tried the old tried and true CLINTON STONEWALL TRICK....
It didn't work....
Hillary could have had all of this past her if she had just come clean and turned over the server when it was requested..
Now that she has waited this long and FORCED to turn over the server... Now she looks 10 times as guilty..
drip, drip, drip, drip, drip
Michale
Now that Hillary's Email Scandal is out of the politics realm and entered the LEGAL/CRIMINAL realm, Hillary has absolutely no control over the issue...
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2015/08/13/hillarys_private_emails_the_vice_slowly_tightens_127758.html
It's not going to be pretty for Hillary or the Democrat Party..
You heard it here first...
Michale
I'll make a prediction: the email issue will not cause Hillary Clinton serious political damage before the New Hampshire primary. Legal process moves slowly, so nothing major (in the eyes of likely Democratic primary voters) will come to light before then.
I'll make a prediction: the email issue will not cause Hillary Clinton serious political damage before the New Hampshire primary.
I'll hold you to that prediction.. :D
Keep in mind though, that gross illegality has been known to come back and bite a sitting POTUS on the ass....
:D
Michale
EXCLUSIVE: Tech company which maintained Hillary's secret server was sued for 'illegally accessing' database and 'stealing White House military advisers' phone numbers'
Platte River Networks was used by Clinton to maintain 'homebrew' server in her New York State house which held her State Department emails
She handed over the server and a thumb drive this week to FBI after emails were found to contain 'above top secret' material
Her White House campaign is said to be in 'panic' over the growing scandal which comes out of probe into US diplomats' deaths in Benghazi
Daily Mail Online can reveal Denver, Colorado, based firm was sued for illegally accessing master database of US phone numbers
It was also accused of causing chaos to White House military advisers when their numbers stopped working as it took their numbers
Case raises questions over how Platte River Networks' ability to secure server which would have been major target for foreign spy hackers
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3197093/Tech-company-maintained-Hillary-s-secret-server-sued-illegally-accessing-databases-creating-chaos-stealing-White-House-phone-numbers.html#ixzz3ijpTXbdI
There is only ONE WORD to describe this..
MELTDOWN
Couldn't happen to a more deserving person..
Michale
I'll make a prediction: the email issue will not cause Hillary Clinton serious political damage before the New Hampshire primary.
The email issue is ALREADY causing Hillary serious political damage in New Hampshire..
Her support in The Granite State has dropped below 40%....
Michale
The email issue is ALREADY causing Hillary serious political damage in New Hampshire..
Her support in The Granite State has dropped below 40%....
So, how popular do you think she ought to be, if it weren't for the email thing?
So, how popular do you think she ought to be, if it weren't for the email thing?
All one needs to do is compare her numbers BEFORE the email scandal to answer that question..
Michale
Intelligence community wants Clinton’s security clearance suspended
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2015/aug/13/hillary-clinton-emails-intelligence-community-want/?page=1
"And the hits just keep on comin'!!"
-Tom Cruise, A FEW GOOD MEN
This is NOT going to go away, people..
It's going to get so big that eventually ya'all will HAVE to address it..
Michale
I mean..
Ya'all can't keep ya'all's heads in the sand forever!
Right???
Michale
The Democrats desperately need more serious, viable candidates in the race, or at least poised to jump in at a moment's notice. (And it sure would be great if they were more appealing than Al Gore.) The point wouldn't be to catch up to her in a mad dash. The point would be to serve as a strong back-up for when the nearly inevitable happens.
What's the nearly inevitable? The scandal that, sooner or later, is bound to sink Hillary Clinton's campaign.
http://theweek.com/articles/571567/hillary-clinton-democratic-partys-ticking-time-bomb
Ya'all are so affixed to Party Loyalty, it prevents you from stating the obvious...
That Hillary will likely implode during the Primary...
Or even worse, she might limp thru the Primary and be mortally wounded and easily dispatched in the General...
This is a REALITY based forum..
And the above is the reality of the Hillary campaign...
Michale