A Little Celebritician History
Donald Trump is unique. Let's start off with that. He's an outsider to the political process, he's got name recognition other candidates would die for, and he makes his own rules out on the campaign trail. He is (to use a word I coined a while back) a "celebritician" -- a celebrity who decided he'd become a politician. This horrifies many, mostly because he's been so successful (so far). But he's certainly not the first celebrity to toss his hat into the political ring, although he is the first big one to emerge on the Republican side in a while (ever since the days of Senator Fred Thompson, by my reckoning). But since each celebritician is unique, can anything be learned from the past history of quixotic celebrity political campaigns?
I've been fascinated by the overlap of celebrity and politics for years, I have to admit. In fact, I initially wrote about it nine years ago, right in the midst of a California race which ended up re-electing Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger. I provided a list of celebrity candidates and officeholders stretching back to the 1940s, and concluded that Republicans were far more successful at making the leap from acting to political office. Since that time, Democrats have actually evened the score quite a bit (think: Senator Al Franken), which I wrote about last year, while applauding Clay Aiken for making a longshot bid for a House seat. But I think the two most interesting cases to compare to Donald Trump's run are California's initial election of "The Governator" and Minnesota's election of Governor Jesse Ventura.
Arnold Schwarzenegger's elevation to leading one of the bluest states in the country came about in the oddest political campaign I've ever seen in America. I say this not for the number of people on the ballot (some of them quite odd indeed), but rather for the length of the campaign. In essence, California held a European-style election. The entire contest was roughly two months long. That was it, from beginning to end. Two months. Compare this to the fact that the political world is now already aflame with the presidential contest, which won't actually happen for over fourteen months. The shortness of the California campaign was a result of it also being a recall election, which wound up booting Democrat Gray Davis from office. If Davis had won the recall, all the votes for governor would have been tossed out, and he would have finished out his term.
Instead, due to the relative ease in getting on the ballot, over 130 people filed papers to run. Not everyone followed through and made it on the ballot (Don "Father Guido Sarducci" Novello failed to complete his paperwork, for instance). But an enormous number of people did. Arianna Huffington came in fifth place. Larry Flynt came in seventh place. But Arnold won handily, and went on (to many California liberals' shame) to be overwhelmingly re-elected, as well.
Schwarzenegger was hit, during his short initial campaign, for his attitudes and actions towards women. This was long before the love-child story, but many other stories emerged of actresses and others in Hollywood accusing him of what was basically sexual assault (for a while, he was even called "The Gropenator"). His answer to the accusations was that if he got elected, he'd immediately have himself investigated. No, seriously. And then he went on to win.
Schwarzenegger benefited from the surreal nature of the recall election. Having over 100 candidates meant many voters were already treating the whole thing as a joke. Schwarzenegger had better name recognition than anyone, and he was helped by the fact that several prominent politicians (from both parties) decided to sit the race out. If Dianne Feinstein had run, just to name one example, the outcome might have been different. Arnold also definitely got what might be called the "Beavis and Butthead" vote ("Huh huh... that Terminator guy's on the ballot!" "Yeah, I'm going to vote for HIM! Heh heh... Future killer robots rule!").
Is any of this sounding familiar? A ballot jam-packed with other names, someone with the biggest name recognition out there, and a lot of people voting who might not make the effort if a celebrity candidate weren't on the ballot. Also, the ability to brush off attacks like water off a duck's back. Think this won't be enough? Again, Arnold Schwarzenegger got elected in a very blue state. These things can be unpredictable.
Which brings us to our second comparison. Jesse Ventura shocked the political world first by running as a third-party candidate (he used H. Ross Perot's old party apparatus) for Minnesota governor, and then by actually winning. He won, importantly, with only 37 percent of the vote. That's all it took, as the Republican and the Democrat candidates split most of the remaining votes. Ventura had been a professional wrestler, a Hollywood actor (for a while there, it seemed as if everyone who had been in The Predator was going to become governor somewhere), and a radio personality. That last one is important, because he already had a fairly large Minnesota audience when he decided to toss his hat in the ring.
The biggest thing worth noting from Ventura's rise to power, though, was that almost nobody predicted the outcome. He wasn't polling anywhere near the lead, so most of the Minnesota political world tended to discount the possibility that Ventura would actually win. The voters, however, had the final say. So Ventura became governor with a little over one-third the votes.
This comparison, obviously, will be made much later, if Donald Trump follows through on his threat to run a third-party presidential campaign. If both the Democrats and the Republicans nominate fairly unexciting candidates (which is entirely possible, this year), then there will indeed be an opening for someone who is all excitement, all the time. And if there are three fairly strong candidates in a race, one of them can actually win with a surprisingly small percentage of the vote.
Of course, direct parallels can rarely be made in politics, especially when talking about celebriticians. Ronald Reagan is not Al Franken, and both bear little resemblance to either Jesse Ventura or Arnold Schwarzenegger. Each case is unique, because each entered politics with a rather unique following. So I certainly am not suggesting that Donald Trump is going to follow in the footsteps of either Schwarzenegger or Ventura. Whatever happens, Trump will definitely chart his own course, and it'll be different from any seen previously. That's about all you can say with absolute certainty.
However, the victories of both Schwarzenegger and Ventura do have one very important lesson to teach, one that so far is mostly being ignored by most everyone in the political world. The lesson might be phrased: "Strange things happen when the political and entertainment worlds collide." Not just strange things, but downright unexpected things. Outcomes nobody in their right mind can believe -- right up until they happen. Celebrities, unlike career politicians, almost always make up their own rules during the campaign. They "defy political gravity" by brushing off scandalous actions or statements that would have destroyed any career politician (Ronald Reagan was called the "Teflon President," for those who don't remember the 1980s, because "nothing stuck to him."). Celebriticians usually arrive with their own built-in audience -- supporters for whom normal political considerations don't even apply. This audience can skew polls to the point where the political world doesn't even see the wave approaching.
So everyone now dismissing Donald Trump out of hand should read this article with caution. "He'll fade... it's inevitable" is the current political conventional wisdom inside the Beltway, from both liberals and conservatives alike. But Trump may not fade. He might even win, either the Republican nomination or as an independent in the general election. Stranger things have happened, when politics and show-biz interact. Trump could indeed fade, of course, and the conventional wisdom could turn out to be right. But then again, California and Minnesota -- both very blue states -- elected Arnold Schwarzenegger and Jesse Ventura. So don't count those chickens quite yet. Trump may go further than anyone now is even imagining. Stranger things have happened, and not all that long ago.
-- Chris Weigant
Cross-posted at The Huffington Post
Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant
Say what you will about Governor Schwarzenegger but, before he ran for governor of California I had paid scant attention to him. I was never a fan of his genre of movies, though I suppose I have made moves in that direction, of late.
I can remember listening to an early interview or two with Governor Schwarzenegger and being very impressed. So much so that I actually watched one of his movies, for the first and last time - True Lies, it was. And, I liked it! But, I digress ...
My point is that while Schwarzenegger was an outsider to electoral politics - though, undoubtedly, as political as you can get when married into the Kennedy family - he seemed to have a very good grasp on what it would take to get things done and to make positive progress. And, on issues like the environment, he continued moving the state forward, following on his predecessors' achievements.
If Trump wins the Republican nomination or gets elected outright as an Independent, then the phrase stranger things have happened when politics meets celebrity is not at all applicable because it would be completely false to suggest such a thing, as least as far as the election of Arnold Schwarzenegger is concerned.
In other words, Trump is no Schwarzenegger. I think it is a big mistake to draw any similarities between the two of them, especially on their relative electability and commitment to public service, not to mention intellect.
"Ventura had been a professional wrestler"
Trump is in the wrasslin' Hall of Fame. It's true. I'm looking forward to the next debate. Maybe he'll hit JEB over the head with a folding chair, but probably not Walker. He seems like he's already unconscious. He can play the referee.
I think maybe The Donald tipped his hand to his endgame when he said that he expected the GOP to treat him fairly, but refused to define what "fairly" means to him. I think he means that he doesn't want to be treated like they treated wRong Paul. They refused to let him have a speaking role at Romney's coronation. Paul held his own convention at the Holiday Inn. Trump can't be humiliated like that. He wants to make a prime time RNC "speech". It'll have to be good to trump Dirty Harry's performance art.
I recall Governor S. was dubbed "gropenfuhrer," a clever play on a similar sounding Nazi rank. Still cracks me up.
LizM -
I'm still kind of reeling from the phrase "Trump is no Schwarzenegger," I have to admit. Hoo boy.
He didn't screw up as badly as he could have, I'll give him that. As I put it in the first celebritician article I wrote:
Some would say that it's actually a good thing more showbiz stars don't run. I personally think they'd be about average as politicians -- some would do a good job, some would screw up -- just like any other group of people.
On a related subject, get a copy of "Last Action Hero" -- personally, this is my favorite Schwarzenegger film of all time. It's a spoof on the entire action film genre, and Arnie does a good job of pointing out all the foibles of the entire action hero mythos. Plus, it's hilarious. Check it out!
John From Censornati -
Why is Trump in the Rasslin' HOF? Sponsorship?
I was hoping for Rick Perry on stage with Trump, because I thought that was the best chance for fisticuffs breaking out, personally...
As for Trump at the convention, man, that'll be a sticky wicket for Reince to negotiate... hadn't thought that far ahead....
TheStig -
Gropenfuhrer! How could I have forgotten that one?!? Thanks for having a better memory than mine!
:-)
-CW
The Donald’s most lasting impact on WWE occurred at WrestleMania 23 when he put his famous head of hair on the line against Mr. McMahon’s mane in a “Battle of the Billionaires.” A record number of viewers tuned in to see Trump back Bobby Lashley to victory over Mr. McMahon’s Umaga and then shave The Chairman’s head in front of more than 80,000 WWE fans.
“It was literally the thrill of a lifetime performing in front of 80,000 enthusiastic fans during the ‘Battle of the Billionaires’ match at WrestleMania 23,” Donald Trump said.
http://www.wwe.com/classics/wwe-hall-of-fame/donald-trump-announced-for-wwe-hall-of-fame-26090724
"I’m a big fan of Donald Trump because I believe in bold, aggressive, unapologetic truth. Period. And I’m not a fan of Megyn Kelly, although I often turn on Fox just to look at her. Sometimes when I’m loading my magazines, I like to just look at her. And I usually sit naked on the couch dropping hot brass on my stuff." - Ted Nugent
I'm unsure how much of that to believe. Megyn's way too old to make him wank. Then again, maybe he's fantasizing about shooting her in the wherever.
So everyone now dismissing Donald Trump out of hand should read this article with caution. "He'll fade... it's inevitable" is the current political conventional wisdom inside the Beltway, from both liberals and conservatives alike. But Trump may not fade. He might even win, either the Republican nomination or as an independent in the general election. Stranger things have happened, when politics and show-biz interact. Trump could indeed fade, of course, and the conventional wisdom could turn out to be right. But then again, California and Minnesota -- both very blue states -- elected Arnold Schwarzenegger and Jesse Ventura. So don't count those chickens quite yet. Trump may go further than anyone now is even imagining. Stranger things have happened, and not all that long ago.
Nice ta see some reality injected... :D
I have been saying this for quite a while now...
It's like the Eddie Murphy stand-up, DELIRIOUS... He was spoofing Jesse Jackson's run for POTUS..
"He f*cking won!!!???
:D
Michale
In other words, Trump is no Schwarzenegger. I think it is a big mistake to draw any similarities between the two of them, especially on their relative electability and commitment to public service, not to mention intellect.
You don't get to be richer than god by being stupid, Liz...
Plus, Trump was a DEMOCRAT for quite while and helped elect DEMOCRATS, including Hillary, to office.. His donations to LEFT WING organizations are well documented...
You are confusing Trump's celebrity with his ability...
EVERY candidate, Left, Right or Center, is radically different in the Primary than they are in the General..
Once the General Election kicks in and Trump is part of it, I am willing to wager we are going to see a very different Trump..
Michale
*SPOILERS* *SPOILERS* *SPOILERS* *SPOILERS* *SPOILERS*
On a related subject, get a copy of "Last Action Hero" -- personally, this is my favorite Schwarzenegger film of all time. It's a spoof on the entire action film genre, and Arnie does a good job of pointing out all the foibles of the entire action hero mythos. Plus, it's hilarious. Check it out!
Gotta agree with ya there.. I just watched TERMINATOR GENISYS, which was pretty awesome...
But yea, LAH was one of Ahhnold's best..
"I'LL BE BACK... HA!! Bet you didn't think I would say that!!"
Heh
The movie poster/stand with Stallone as Terminator? Awesome!!
The T1000 in the precinct?? Priceless
It was an all around fun movie and I highly recommend it to anyone.. :D
Michale
You are confusing Trump's celebrity with his ability...
No, I don't think so.
No, I don't think so.
The facts say different..
Trump has been (and still is) a very VERY successful as a businessman..
You don't get that way by being stupid..
He was also very VERY successful as a Democrat before he saw the light...
To put it in another context...
Carrie Fisher has been quoted as saying, during the filming of the original STAR WARS, it was so hard to be mean and nasty to Peter Cushing (who played the Death Star Commander, Grand Moff Tarkin) because, in real life, "Cushing is so damn nice and lovable."
You are confusing Trump's persona... his "character" with the reality...
Trump may be, is likely, an arrogant prick..
But you don't get to be as successful as Trump is by being stupid...
It's like saying Jimmy.... er.. Warren Buffet or George Soros is "stupid"..
I may not agree with their politics, but there is absolutely NO WAY I can back up the idea that they are stupid..
Michale
Chris,
I'm still kind of reeling from the phrase "Trump is no Schwarzenegger," I have to admit. Hoo boy.
And, by that you mean ...
Check this out ...
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/william-bradley/californias-upwing-govern_b_5107681.html
If Schwarzenegger is "up-wing", what does that make Donald Trump?
And, I'll force myself to check out Last Action Hero, sometime ... :)
Michale,
Here's one just for you!
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/william-bradley/trump-finally-performs-a_b_7826240.html
"I'LL BE BACK... HA!! Bet you didn't think I would say that!!"
Heh
The movie poster/stand with Stallone as Terminator? Awesome!!
The T1000 in the precinct?? Priceless
" Look out there, there's a cartoon cat."
"He's supposed to be back on duty. He was only suspended for a month. Now, shut up."
-LAST ACTION HERO
:D
Michale
CW,
Interesting note about LAH...
Schwarzenegger considered LAST ACTION HERO his first failure after a string of big successes...
Arnold considers LAH the beginning of the end of his film career...
Michale
And, I'll force myself to check out Last Action Hero, sometime ... :)
You won't regret it.. : D
Here's one just for you!
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/william-bradley/trump-finally-performs-a_b_7826240.html
Danke
Just remember... If you had caught Trump in his Democrat phase, you would have loved him. :D
Michale
I think True Lies is Arnold's best performance, but I have a soft spot for his 1st Conan (a good director can get a lot out of a then VERY limited actor).
A shout out to Arnold's Simpsons alter ego, Rainier Luftwaffe Wolfcastle. A decent governor in his own right, with a strong filmography including:
The McBain series I-VI
Radioactive Man and Fallout Boy: the Movie
My Baby Is an Ugly Man
I Shoot Your Face
I Shoot Your Face Again
Total Explosion
Saving Irene Ryan
What the hey, the Complete McBain I.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7vyANa71gvU
"Swank..ten times more addictive than mari-juana."
Little known fact: McCain chews with a German accent!
It's a spoof on the entire action film genre
And movies in general, to some extent. The line that comes to mind is about area codes.
And movies in general, to some extent. The line that comes to mind is about area codes.
When Danny Madigan says that there are only 9999 possible combinations, he was inaccurate...
There are actually 10000 possibly combinations, as the number 555-0000 would be a valid number...
Michale
And Sharon Stone's cameo in LAH was actually a surprise to Sharon Stone, as she and Arnold had a bit of a tiff during the filming of TOTAL RECALL..
Michale