Not Exactly Brain Surgery
No matter what the eventual outcome, this year's Republican primary race is sure to go down in history as one of the most bizarre political contests ever. Well, considering what happened in 2012, perhaps I should amend that with "...until the next one happens." We currently have two frontrunners, with everyone else running so far back in the pack they're ecstatic if they ever post a double-digit number in the polls (which few of them can manage to do, even in state-level polling). The two GOP frontrunners have, between them, a total of zero days of political experience. One is a megalomaniac billionaire and one is a world-class surgeon who seems to be trying to prove the old canard that doctors all think they've been promoted to God.
Plenty of ink has been spilled desperately trying to explain why Donald Trump is doing so well. Even more ink has been wasted trying to prove "Trump will eventually disappear," without a shred of evidence in the argument's favor. But it's only recently that the pundit world has even paid the slightest attention to Ben Carson. Which is odd, because his rise in the polls is even harder to fathom than The Donald's. Trump has bluster going for him -- in a huge way, as he might put it. His bombast is second to none, which he routinely showcases in the debates (another of which is happening Wednesday night). The American people have always loved a good showman, all the way back to P.T. Barnum. Consider that Minnesota and California -- pretty liberal states, mind you -- elected Jesse Ventura and Arnold Schwarzenegger not all that long ago to see the proof of this.
But Carson's rise is harder to explain. He's now leading the polls in Iowa, and while he's still trailing Trump nationally, he is slowly catching up (a claim absolutely none of the other GOP candidates can make). Carson is, in some ways, the anti-Trump. He's soft-spoken. He radiates calm (to the point of somnolence). He doesn't sound crazy. He is very hesitant to attack his rivals (especially Trump, although that could change, seeing as how Trump has started directing some attacks at Carson).
The best thing Carson has going for him is that he is demonstrably an intelligent guy. He used to be, in fact, a prominent member of one of the two professions that we commonly cite as the ideal for "careers which require extraordinary intelligence." The epitome of jobs requiring a high I.Q. has for a long time been either "brain surgeon" or "rocket scientist." Indeed, it's hard to imagine using any other job in the sentences: "It doesn't take a..." or: "It ain't exactly...." Ben Carson was not just a brain surgeon, but an exceptionally talented and pioneering brain surgeon. That's pretty strong evidence that he possesses the ability to read lots of very dense writing, memorize an astounding amount of data, and then process that data and turn it into benevolent action. A physicist might argue that brain surgery ain't rocket science, but it sure as heck is a job requiring a high degree of intelligence.
However, this also appears to be Carson's biggest problem. So far, he has exhibited nothing short of an astounding lack of comprehension (or perhaps, to be charitable, just plain laziness) on pretty much every subject he's tackled. The problem, so far, is that the media hasn't noticed. They're much more interested in attempting to expose Carson's extremism, which is actually a valid goal (but also a different subject than this column). Carson seems to be a walking, talking personification of Godwin's Law. Carson has two go-to comparisons that he'll deploy on any number of unrelated current issues: either America is going the way of the Nazis, or we're headed back to slavery. Those are pretty extreme examples to use, but they're both favorites of Carson, used by him on a routine basis. So far, this has been what the media has chosen to focus on when dissecting Carson's campaign.
This is a shame, because Carson has a flaw which is even bigger. His over-the-top Nazi and slavery comparisons actually play pretty well with the Republican primary audience, no matter how many times the pundits raise their metaphorical eyebrows over them. But what is harder to explain is the absolute incoherence of pretty much all of Carson's policy positions. Not unlike Trump, Carson seems satisfied with vague ideas heavy on ideology and sloganeering, but very light on actual details. But unlike Trump, Carson gets pretty flustered whenever anyone asks him about the missing details. Trump just bulls his way through any doubts interviewers have, but Carson can't really pull off the same trick. What happens instead is that he melts down.
I've noticed this in many interviews Carson has given over the past few months, but the only story that made any sort of a splash in the media (even the liberal-leaning media) was Carson's apparent confusion about what, exactly, the debt ceiling is. It was a two-day story on the liberal websites, and then it receded. Sooner or later, however, somebody's got to notice the lack of visible clothing on this Emperor-wannabe.
Just last weekend, Carson appeared on some Sunday morning political chat shows. Once again, the big takeaway story was how NBC's Chuck Todd got Carson to say some outrageous things about slavery. What was missed was Carson's astoundingly inept appearance on Fox News Sunday, where he was interviewed by Chris Wallace. Wallace -- one of the best interviewers on Fox, when it comes to pressuring conservatives to answer their critics -- took a deep dive into Carson's new plan for health insurance.
This is Carson's second plan for replacing Obamacare, mind you. Carson told Wallace over and over again that his plan of a few months ago is no longer operative, because he had since talked to some people and refined it into a new plan. His old plan would have entirely killed off Medicare and Medicaid. His new plan -- using some fiscal magic that Carson was unable to explain -- does not do so. Now Carson would only propose his plan as a choice people would have, because he doesn't want to be all Obama-ish and force people into anything. His problem is that he wants to pay for his new plan using the money that now goes to Medicare and Medicaid.
Wallace, to his credit, tried multiple times to point out that medical savings accounts (Carson's grand answer to pretty much everything) are great things to have if you have the money for them. Rich people love medical savings accounts, because it is a big tax write-off for them. But Wallace pressed Carson on how they'd work for the indigent and the middle class, and Carson immediately got lost in the weeds and couldn't offer up a rational explanation of how his plan was supposed to work.
These weren't "gotcha" questions like who is the leader of some country Americans would be hard-pressed to find on a map. Wallace was questioning Carson on his own policy plan. Carson is a medical doctor -- this is supposed to be within his area of expertise. This plan has already been revised, so it should be safe to assume that Carson was instrumental in making changes to it. And yet Carson couldn't explain it -- to a conservative member of the media on Fox News (he can't exactly explain this away as some sort of liberal media trap).
Watch the video (or read the transcript) if you think I'm exaggerating the awfulness of Carson's floundering. This isn't the first time Carson has stumbled over any question that digs deeper than surface-level talking points. He's done so in many interviews, in fact, but so far most people haven't noticed. He reminds me of nothing more than a slightly-more-articulate version of Sarah Palin. He loves the word-salad approach to answering questions, and he's obviously got his lines down (better than Palin ever managed), at least on this level. But when asked to go any deeper, Carson soon lapses into incoherence. On pretty much any subject anyone asks him about.
If Ben Carson experiences a collapse in his support, it's not going to be for some Nazi or slavery comparison. The Republican base can pretty much absorb those, at least in states like Iowa. No, if Ben torpedoes his campaign by saying something shocking, it's likely going to be because he says something which exposes his absolute incompetence on some subject near and dear to Republican voters' hearts. The only way this is likely to happen is if it is pointed out by another conservative -- say, during a debate.
The third Republican presidential debate is scheduled for this Wednesday. So far, the candidates who have launched full-frontal attacks on Donald Trump haven't done so well. They've all seen their poll numbers fall immediately after such attacks, in fact. At least so far, it's been a losing game for Trump's attackers. So we might see a shift on Wednesday night to attacking Ben Carson, rather than Trump. If Trump ever does collapse, right now Ben Carson is poised to take the lead. And while Carson has risen, almost all the second-tier Republicans have fallen back. Regaining some voter support might be seen as easier to do by taking down Carson than taking on Trump. To say nothing of the fact that Trump himself seems slightly worried by Carson now, so Trump might actually lead the attacks against Ben this Wednesday.
If Republican candidates do decide to target Carson, they're not going to do so by calling him an extremist. After all, there are a whole bunch of extremist Republican voters out there, and attacking their own beliefs isn't exactly the way to build a candidate's base support (at least, not in today's Republican Party). What's left is attacking Carson's policy ideas. Which is actually pretty easy to do, even for a conservative. Take a look at pretty much any interview he's been in where he's had to defend his positions in a substantive way -- each time, he looks weak and flustered. So my guess is that a few Republican candidates will press Carson hard on his inconsistencies Wednesday night. After all, poking holes in Carson's arguments is not exactly brain surgery.
-- Chris Weigant
Cross-posted at The Huffington Post
Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant
I vacillate re: Carson. He's a nut and he collapses under pressured questioning. If he manages to get the nod on the Repub side I think he would be toast in the general. I'm all for the Repubs selecting an easy-to-beat candidate. I think his appeal at present is religious, but he's appealing to the far-right religious folks and that will not play well outside the conservative bubble. OTOH it's horrifying to think he'd have a smell of a chance to win the presidency. But then it is horrifying to think of any of the Repubs currently running as having a smell of a chance to win the presidency.
On the third hand, he may just be getting his time in the limelight, to be followed fairly soon by the next Repub favorite, especially if Trump drops any further. Then we'll have this conversation about Rubio or Cruz or whoever.
Program Note
OK, no promises (we're still in the "dancing around it" stage) but I may have something interesting for everyone this week in advance of the Republican debates. I'm talking visuals -- actually seeing me blather on about what the GOP should and shouldn't do. Again, no promises, but "watch this space" for details, if I can make it happen.
:-)
Sorry to be a tease, but nothing's written in stone at this point...
-CW
Paula -
I hear you on the "I'm all for the Repubs selecting an easy-to-beat candidate" thing, I have to say.
I think Carson would be the easiest to beat of all the GOP frontrunners (and second-tier folks) at this point. I'd LOVE it if here were to become the nominee, but somehow I just don't see it happening. I think he'll stumble badly once the spotlight is truly on him -- which hasn't quite happened yet.
We'll have to see -- should be an interesting debate!
-CW
OK, I'm attempting to answer last week's comments, so here's last Monday's...
http://www.chrisweigant.com/2015/10/19/focus-will-be-on-questioners-not-on-hillary/#comment-65667
More later...
-CW
Plenty of ink has been spilled desperately trying to explain why Donald Trump is doing so well. Even more ink has been wasted trying to prove "Trump will eventually disappear," without a shred of evidence in the argument's favor.
Welcome to the wonderful world of Wingery! :D
Michale
OK, here's last Tuesday's comments:
http://www.chrisweigant.com/2015/10/20/gop-race-overview-carly-falls-back/#comment-65673
:-)
-CW
I vacillate re: Carson. He's a nut and he collapses under pressured questioning. If he manages to get the nod on the Repub side I think he would be toast in the general. I'm all for the Repubs selecting an easy-to-beat candidate. I think his appeal at present is religious, but he's appealing to the far-right religious folks and that will not play well outside the conservative bubble. OTOH it's horrifying to think he'd have a smell of a chance to win the presidency. But then it is horrifying to think of any of the Repubs currently running as having a smell of a chance to win the presidency.
Ya know, many MANY people said the same things about Obama..
They were immediately branded as RACISTS!!! by the Hysterical and not so Hysterical Left Wingery...
I'm just sayin'...
Michale
I have followed up on your follow-ups, if you are so inclined, CW.. :D
I can just picture you in front of yer pooter, muttering..
"Yer killin' me, Smalls. Yer killin me!"
Heh
Michale
And Wednesday's...
http://www.chrisweigant.com/2015/10/21/bidens-exit-might-clinch-the-race-for-hillary/#comment-65678
-CW
Since yer in an answering mood, CW and I am not sure how far back you went, I wanted to make sure you saw this.. :D
Star Wars ticketing fiasco prompts theater apology: 'We thought we were ready'
Fans upset they had to walk to theaters
http://www.ew.com/article/2015/10/20/star-wars-tickets-apology
"Your feeble servers are no match for the power of the dork side"
I am pretty sure you would find it as funny as I did :D
Michale
If yer still up, CW there is a comment in the NNL filter... :D
Michale
And Thursday's... too late at night to tackle Fridays, sorry...
http://www.chrisweigant.com/2015/10/22/can-ryan-save-house-republicans-from-themselves/#comment-65686
-CW
Michale [11] -
Should be freed up now, sorry...
-CW
No biggie.. :D Thanx..
Michale
And Thursday's... too late at night to tackle Fridays, sorry...
Yea.. You want to be WELL RESTED to tackle Friday's :D
Michale
Trump has bluster going for him -- in a huge way, as he might put it.
The fact that he is HIGHLY successful at what he does is MORE what's going for him..
Democrats talk the talk, but fall all over themselves trying to walk the walk..
Not so with Trump...
Don't get me wrong, I am nursing a growing dislike for the man..
But because I am politically agnostic, I can acknowledge and respect his accomplishments without being supportive of what he is doing..
Just like I COULD acknowledge and respect Hillary Clinton's accomplishments..
If she actually HAD any worthy of respect...
Michale
Grrr!! I hate it when I mess up a perfectly awesome exit line!!
Just like I COULD acknowledge and respect Hillary Clinton's accomplishments..
If she actually HAD any accomplishments worthy of respect...
My bust...
Michale
Plenty of ink has been spilled desperately trying to explain why Donald Trump is doing so well. Even more ink has been wasted trying to prove "Trump will eventually disappear," without a shred of evidence in the argument's favor.
Time ta face the facts, people..
It's the Democrat Party's total scroo-ups and incompetence that allowed such an arrogant and bombastic candidate as Trump to actually have a real shot at the POTUS-ency..
Decry and castigate Trump all you want.
But it's YOUR Democrats who made Trump, not only possible, but more and more likely..
Michale
Michale,
But it's YOUR Democrats who made Trump
Many Democrats are of the opinion that Trump has done wonders for the Republican Party. He's certainly very popular, isn't he. (He also talked a lot of sense about the Middle East in his interview with Chuck Todd at the weekend.) Even though Carson has passed him in the Iowa polls, Trump's still in front in New Hampshire and South Carolina.
Don't get me wrong, I am nursing a growing dislike for the man..
So what is it about Trump that you don't like?
Who do you favor in the contest now that Scott Walker is out?
Reading up on Carson, I find his statements to be at odds with pretty much any codified belief system, be that system political, theological or even health care. I'd say he was a true original but for the fact that he's even at odds with himself if you look at his statements over time. So much of evolution (which he doesn't believe in)! You can see why he might flounder during interviews or debate. His much vaunted 3 dimensional dexterity needs a 4th dimensional upgrade so he can dance through time. He may be a surgeon, but he's no Time Lord. A certain amount of pandering/meandering on positions is a common political sleight of hand, but if can introduce another Star Trek cliche, Carson is "operating at warp speed!"
There is insufficient space in this comments section to give specifics (some of which were pointed out by CW) , so I'll just leave the task to the many other professional journalists. Oh, right, "The problem, so far, is that the media hasn't noticed" -CW.
I now turn over the "floor" to Michael for several dozen comments relating his zero sum/mirror image view of US politics. :)
Mopshell,
Many Democrats are of the opinion that Trump has done wonders for the Republican Party.
I am going to assume you are being serious and not just yankin' my chain.. :D
In what way??
So what is it about Trump that you don't like?
He is beginning to act too much like a Democrat for my tastes..
Who do you favor in the contest now that Scott Walker is out?
Keeping in mind that my opinion means LESS than zero as I can't vote in Primaries..
I like Carson...
He's actually ACCOMPLISHED something in his life.. Unlike Obama who didn't do (or know) squat when he was elected..
But I like Carson if only for the fact that, whenever any of the Hysterical (and not so Hysterical) Left Wingery says anything bad about Carson, I can scream RACIST!!! RACISM!!!! hysterically and then smirk "It's not much fun to have logical and rational talking points answered with ignorant and hysterical accusations of racism, is it?? MORON!!!"
I lead a bland life. I take my jollies where I can find them.. :D
Michale
I now turn over the "floor" to Michael
Who??? J/K I know yer Tablet Spell Check probably won't let ya.. Heh..
for several dozen comments relating his zero sum/mirror image view of US politics. :)
You mean, like Weigantians/Democrats did during the Bush years??
You mean like that?? :D
Michale
M-22
What spell check - this feature hasn't worked since the last OS upgrade on the ol' tablet. I will check this out...eventually. Until, then I am on my own with regards to typoos. :)
hehehehe Sorry ta hear that.
Michale
But I like Carson if only for the fact that, whenever any of the Hysterical (and not so Hysterical) Left Wingery says anything bad about Carson, I can scream RACIST!!! RACISM!!!! hysterically and then smirk "It's not much fun to have logical and rational talking points answered with ignorant and hysterical accusations of racism, is it?? MORON!!!"
For the record, that does NOT apply to anyone here... :D
Just want to make sure we're clear on that..
Michale
What's going on in Punditland? When Carson announced that he was taking two weeks off to continue his book tour, the pundits were predicting a downswing for his campaign.
But what happens at the end of those two weeks? Carson is now solidly in the lead in Iowa and a recent national poll has him drawing ahead nationwide. I notice none of these pundits have referred to the book tour since those numbers came out.
This presidential campaign season just isn't going the way the pundits expected.
This presidential campaign season just isn't going the way the pundits expected.
Yep... :D
A "book tour" is nothing more than a grassroots campaign tour by another name..
Michale
Mopshell [26] -
What I find curious is that nobody (at least, that I noticed) pointed out that "it's been done before" -- by Newt Gingrich, no less. He did exactly the same thing -- held a book tour in the middle of his campaign. Don't know what it did for the sales of his book, but I think at least one of his poll spikes (he had two, as I recall) came after his book tour. So it's been proven to work before...
-CW