GOP Beginning To Face Stark Reality That Trump Might Become Their Nominee
Two interesting campaign articles today both point out a frightening new reality for the Republican Party. Previously considered unthinkable, unconceivable, and downright unimaginable, some Republicans are now struggling to come to grips with the fact that Donald Trump might actually become their party's standard-bearing presidential nominee. The first of these articles, from the New York Times, documents how "irritation is giving way to panic" over Trump-as-GOP-nominee, because many in the party feel that this could "imperil the careers of other Republicans." It continues:
Many leading Republican officials, strategists and donors now say they fear that Mr. Trump's nomination would lead to an electoral wipeout, a sweeping defeat that could undo some of the gains Republicans have made in recent congressional, state and local elections. But in a party that lacks a true leader or anything in the way of consensus -- and with the combative Mr. Trump certain to scorch anyone who takes him on -- a fierce dispute has arisen about what can be done to stop his candidacy and whether anyone should even try.
The article has plenty of alarming quotes which detail how widespread the panic has already become. From a former GOP chair in Illinois: "If he's our nominee, the repercussions of that in this state would be devastating." From the GOP chairman in Ohio: "If he carries this message into the general election in Ohio, we'll hand this election to Hillary Clinton -- and then try to salvage the rest of the ticket." Another Ohio Republican (when asked in an email what Trump's effect would be on the election in his state) just sent a link to the Wikipedia page on the 1964 congressional elections, when following Barry Goldwater meant losing 36 House seats for Republicans.
Senator Lindsey Graham (who is still officially running against Trump for the nomination, it bears mentioning) had the most forceful response: "It would be an utter, complete and total disaster. If you're a xenophobic, race-baiting, religious bigot, you're going to have a hard time being president of the United States, and you're going to do irreparable damage to the party."
Remember, these are all criticisms and doomsaying from Republicans, about the man who (if the polling holds steady, as it has so far) has the best chance of becoming their party's nominee. It's all pretty extraordinary language for Republicans to be using against one of their own. I guess Ronald Reagan's famed "11th Commandment" ("Thou shalt not speak ill of a fellow Republican") doesn't apply when it comes to Trump, eh?
One unnamed Republican senator pleaded for outside groups and Republican donors to band together to take down Trump. "There is not a bit of confusion among our members that if Donald Trump is the nominee, we're going to get wiped out," he said. The only problem is, as the article points out: "the same reason the senator insisted on anonymity explains why, just two months before the Iowa caucuses, there has been no such ad campaign: To step up in that way would be to invite the wrath of Mr. Trump, who relishes belittling his critics."
Another Republican senator, Lamar Alexander, warned of the possible blowback from even attempting attacks on Trump: "I think it would play into his hands and only validate him. A 'Stop Trump' effort wouldn't work, and it might help him."
All of this gives rise to a certain amount of pity for the man in charge of defending Republican Senate seats this election cycle, Ward Baker (head of the National Republican Senatorial Committee). The Washington Post just ran an article which helpfully leaked a rather extraordinary internal memo from Baker to his fellow Republicans, on the subject of what to do if Trump does actually become the nominee. As is normal in documents such as these, there is plenty of nuts-and-bolts campaign advice that could have been circulated in just about any election year. But what leaps out from all the boilerplate election advice is the fear and confusion Trump is sowing among Republicans. The document's very first bullet point starts off:
Trump is a Misguided Missile. Let's face facts. Trump says what's on his mind and that's a problem. Our candidates will have to spend full time defending him or condemning him if that continues. And, that's a place we never, ever want to be.
That's just too bad, though, because that's exactly the place Republican voters seem to want to go this year. The rest of the memo tries to have things both ways on Trump. Somehow, Republican candidates are supposed to thread the needle of largely agreeing with Trump, while at the same time denouncing what comes out of his mouth. This includes the warning: "Trump is subject to farcical fits," which, the memo advises, should be counted by: "taking Trump to task on outrageous statements where the media won't let you off the hook." That dastardly media, always asking tricky questions like: "So what do you think of what your party's presidential candidate just said, Senator?"
At the same time, Republican senators are supposed to simultaneously agree with Trump while denouncing him: "Trump will continue to advance those messages, but you don't have to go along with his more extreme positioning. Instead, you should stake out turf in the same issue zone and offer your own ideas." So, maybe: "We'll build a wall, but it won't be as beautiful as Trump wants," or something?
On some issues, however, the memo advises completely disagreeing with Trump:
Trump and Women. Houston, we have a problem: Donald Trump has said some wacky things about women. Candidates shouldn't go near this ground other than to say that your wife or daughter is offended by what Trump said. We do not want to reengage the "war on women" fight so isolate Trump on this issue by offering a quick condemnation of it.
But, overall, Republican candidates are supposed to: "limit the Trump criticisms (other than obvious free kicks), and grab onto the best elements of the anti-Washington populist agenda," in order to "ride that wave" of Trump populism. Cowabunga! Surf's up!
As I said, it all makes you feel a little sorry for Baker, because it's almost impossible to develop any coherent strategy against Donald Trump right now. Baker's memo is contradictory throughout, in its quest to offer some sort of "Trump-lite" strategy that the voters might respond to, while simultaneously attempting to sand off Trump's rough edges.
Anyone who thinks this will be any sort of easy task should ask pretty much every other Republican presidential candidate running what their experience has so far been. So far, nothing has worked. Agreeing with Trump, disagreeing with Trump, denouncing Trump -- all of it has been tried, and Trump still sits far above everyone else in the polling, a mere two months before Iowa kicks off the primary election race.
Up until very recently, those in the Republican establishment were happy to bury their heads in the sand -- right alongside pretty much every inside-the-Beltway journalist (left, right, and center) -- where they all mumble to themselves over and over again: "It's got to end soon. Trump has to fall -- it's inevitable!" Now they're all finally waking up to the reality that this much-prophesied Trump fall has not happened yet, still shows no sign of happening any time soon, and (hardest of all to face) might not ever happen at all. "Trump could actually win the nomination," they are now whispering -- in panicked tones -- to each other.
What is most extraordinary about all this is the level of hatred and fear that this one man has inspired within his own party. When else has any sitting senator called his own party's frontrunner anything remotely as scathing as: "a xenophobic, race-baiting, religious bigot," after all? When else has the fear of the frontrunner winning the party's nomination brought forth such predictions of electoral disaster as: "we're going to get wiped out," and "you're going to do irreparable damage to our party"? If Trump wins the nomination, Hillary Clinton's team can just cherry-pick the worst of these predictions -- perhaps "an utter, complete and total disaster" or "the repercussions would be devastating" -- to use in her general election campaign ads.
Democrats, of course, can be expected to welcome the news that Trump at the top of the GOP ticket might make things a heck of a lot easier for them, down-ticket. Trump might just hand the Senate to the Democrats, in fact. It's less likely that Trump's presence on the ballot would impact the House as much (due to gerrymandering and many pro-Trump Republican districts), but even so, you normally only hear such predictions from wonky poll-watching pundits. Doom-and-gloom predictions aren't usually espoused by members of the same party as the frontrunner being denounced -- at least not this early in the process.
The concept of "Republican nominee Donald Trump" is already causing a lot of panic in certain Republican circles. This panic is effused with naked fear, since nobody really has any bright ideas for how to avoid such a fate. But this previously-unthinkable concept is now looming as the most likely outcome, if the polls can be believed. In the coming weeks, look for the levels of panic and fear to rise dramatically within the Republican Party establishment. Already, many of them are publicly admitting that the 2016 election could be a disaster of Barry Goldwater-sized proportions (if they were Democrats, of course, it would be "of George McGovern-sized proportions"). Whether this is correct or not remains anyone's guess, at this point. But what's striking is that the unthinkable is now being thought about -- very hard, and with much handwringing -- in Republican circles.
Democrats, meanwhile, are metaphorically sitting back and enjoying their popcorn, while watching this entertaining reality show play out.
-- Chris Weigant
Cross-posted at The Huffington Post
Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant
Democrats, meanwhile, are metaphorically sitting back and enjoying their popcorn, while watching this entertaining reality show play out.
Just as Republicans are enjoying the HILLARY IS GOING TO JAIL show...
The man who is deciding Hillary's fate is a man who will NOT let political pressure sway his decision..
James Comey is a man who is a COP first, last and always...
So, yea.. Enjoy your TRUMP show...
It'll make Hillary's Perp Walk that much more enjoyable.. :D
Michale
074
Also keep in mind that there are polls that show Trump BEATING Hillary...
So, the GOP needs to un-twist their knickers..
Personally, I see a LOT of good in a Trump POTUS-ency..
Of course, at LOT of the good is that it's bad for the Democrat Party.. :D
But then again, THAT'S the facts of life for the Democrat Party..
What's good for the country is bad for the Dem Party...
Michale
075
Here are two facts that should have Democrats quaking in their boots..
Fact #1: James Comey pressed for much more stringent punishment for General Patraeus for his mis-handling of classified intel..
Fact #2: What Hillary did was MUCH larger and MUCH more egregious and dangerous to this country than what Patraeus did..
If Comey is the law and order man of integrity that I think he is, Hillary Clinton will be charged..
Just like David Patraeus was..
The stuff of (Democrat) nightmares, eh? :D
So, I wouldn't get yer hopes up that Trump as the GOP Candidate automatically means a Hillary victory...
Because I doubt an indicted Dem Candidate has much of a chance of becoming POTUS...
Michale
076
I'll even go one step further..
I am willing to state, FOR THE RECORD, that if Director Comey decides that there is not enough evidence of wrong doing to prosecute Hillary Clinton or any of her minions, I will accept it..
Now...
Is there anyone here who is willing to reciprocate??
Anyone willing to go on record as stating that, if Director Comey decides that there is enough evidence to prosecute Clinton or any of her minions, ya'all will accept that and concede that there WAS illegal activities committed??
I am betting that there will be 3 (maybe 4) Weigantians who will agree to this..
:D
Michale
077
Michale wrote:
"Also keep in mind that there are polls that show Trump BEATING Hillary..."
I would not count your chickens before they are hatched. For one, you are presuming that Hillary will in fact be the Democratic nominee for President. That is not a forgone conclusion. Especially if she is indicted before the Democratic convention.
For another, according to the latest national Quinnipiac University poll released Wednesday: In a hypothetical matchup against the current GOP front-runner, business mogul Donald Trump, Sanders takes 49 percent of the vote to Trump's 41 percent. Against Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), Sanders leads 44 percent to 43 percent. He also beats Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) by 10 percentage points and retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson by 6 points.
Fifty-nine percent of voters also say Sanders is honest and trustworthy -- placing him well above former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, his chief rival for the Democratic nomination, and above all top Republican candidates tested in the poll.
"Anyone willing to go on record as stating that, if Director Comey decides that there is enough evidence to prosecute Clinton or any of her minions, ya'all will accept that and concede that there WAS illegal activities committed??"
Yes, I will concede that, if that happens.
I would not count your chickens before they are hatched. For one, you are presuming that Hillary will in fact be the Democratic nominee for President. That is not a forgone conclusion. Especially if she is indicted before the Democratic convention.
Abso-frakin'-loutly!!
I am on record as stating that it's entirely possible, even LIKELY, that Hillary won't make it to the end of the Primary..
I guess I am just straddling the fence.. Which can be dangerous. :D
Yes, I will concede that, if that happens.
I have to admit, you weren't one of the 3 (or 4) I was thinking of..
In hindsight, I *SHOULD* have...
My sincerest apologies...
We have one out of 4 (or 5)...
From everything I can find about Comey, he is a cop's cop, unswayed by political considerations...
So, if he makes his determination, then I will accept it.. No matter which way it goes...
Michale
078
"Trump is subject to farcical fits,"
It works better as "Fistical Farts," given Trump's angry delivery and lack of self control.
"Democrats, meanwhile, are metaphorically sitting back and enjoying their popcorn, while watching this entertaining reality show play out."
Nothing metaphorical about it. I'm a registered Dem, and I'm munching microwave popcorn and greasing up my keyboard as I enjoy this column!
So, Trump is passionate..
After the "laid back" style (as in, "Another terrorist attack?? Yaaawn") of Obama, that is (apparently) exactly what Americans want..
Put another way..
Trump would NEVER have been able to ascend as high as he has unless Democrats and Obama royally frak'ed things up...
In other words, it's Obama's and Democrat's total incompetence that has given us President Trump..
This is fact, whether ya'all want to face it or not...
Michale
079
If Trump was running as a Democrat ya'all would be singing his praises to high heaven.. :D
Michale
080
I mean, honestly..
Look at things objectively..
If Hillary had a -R after her name and Donald had a -D after his name, ya'all would be vilifying Hillary's Wall Street ties and glossing over Donald's illegal immigration positions..
Go ahead.. Tell me I'm wrong... :D
I double dog dare ya!! :D
Michale
082
Interesting recent Trump Trends over at the Betfair Markets:
His implied chances of getting the nomination have never been higher - about 21-22%.
Simultaneously, his implied chances of winning the Presidency have dipped, from a recent all time high of 10% to 8%.
There has very little change in how the Betfair markets see the chances of a Democratic vs Republican President - roughly 60%:40%, as it has been for months.
There has very little change in how the Betfair markets see the chances of a Democratic vs Republican President - roughly 60%:40%, as it has been for months.
More than 75% of Americans think that this country is headed in the wrong direction..
And you HONESTLY think that Americans are going to vote back in a POTUS from the Party who PUT us on the wrong track???
NEVER, in the history of this country, NEVER.. NOT ONCE.... Has the incumbent Party been re-elected to the White House with poll numbers so abysmally low...
NEVER.....
But "THIS" time, it will be different???
Really?? :D
I admire your faith, TS... I really do..
Michale
085
In other words, it's Obama's and Democrat's total incompetence that has given us President Trump..
It's the democrats fault that Trump is beating the contenders of another party for their nomination?
This is fact, whether ya'all want to face it or not...
Not only is it not fact, it does not even register as logic...
If Trump was running as a Democrat ya'all would be singing his praises to high heaven.. :D
Bullshit. I have disliked Trump even when he had a D after his name. Sorry, your tit for tat crutch is not applicable here...
It's the democrats fault that Trump is beating the contenders of another party for their nomination?
Pretty much..
Because if things weren't so frakin' bad, courtesy of the Democrat Party, then establishment candidates would actually have a snowball's chance in hell...
Bullshit. I have disliked Trump even when he had a D after his name. Sorry, your tit for tat crutch is not applicable here...
As you would say.. Bullshit..
You may not have LIKED Trump..
But you would still VOTE for Trump...
Because of the '-D' after his name..
Just like you probably don't like Hillary much..
But you will still VOTE for her..
Because of the '-D' after her name..
The ONLY thing that matters to ya is the '-X' after the name..
I know it's true..
YOU know it's true...
:D
Michale
087
I know it's true..
Then you are self delusional.
YOU know it's true...
And there you are wrong. It would not be the first time I have made a protest vote...
Though I do find it interesting that a self proclaimed "independent" would not be interested in the subject of the post but must immediately try to turn the subject to the opposite party. Shows some deep political bias that...
Has anyone here ever voted Republican???
I don't mean switched Partys and then voted Party line..
I mean has anyone here been registered a Democrat but voted Republican in a Congressional or Presidential election??
Anyone??? Anyone???
I can honestly say that I have voted for both Republicans AND Democrats...
Can anyone here make the same claim??
I am betting the answer is no...
Michale
089
And there you are wrong. It would not be the first time I have made a protest vote...
Bullshit...
There is absolutely NOTHING in your comments for the last 8-10 years that would even INDICATE that you wouldn't support the Dem nominee for POTUS..
Though I do find it interesting that a self proclaimed "independent" would not be interested in the subject of the post but must immediately try to turn the subject to the opposite party. Shows some deep political bias that...
'Tis the season.. :D
But irregardless of that, voting for Trump *IS* the subject of the commentary...
And I think it's a very valid point..
Many of ya'all have stated for the record that ya'all will hold yer noses and vote for Hillary....
So, if ya'all are willing to hold yer noses for Hillary because she is the Dem Candidate, why would anyone think ya'all wouldn't hold yer noses and vote for Trump, if HE was the Dem candidate..??
Ya'all have made it abundantly clear ya'all will vote Democrat irregardless of any other factor...
I mean, honestly..
Hillary is a candidate that could VERY LIKELY be *INDICTED*...
And ya'all still support her...
Says it all...
Michale
090
In short...
Ya'all will vote for the Democrat Candidate for POTUS, *WHOEVER* that will be...
So, if Trump was the Dem Candidate...
Ya'all would vote for him...
"Simple Logic..."
-Admiral James T Kirk, Star Trek II, The Wrath Of Kahn
:D
Michale
Hillary is a candidate that could VERY LIKELY be *INDICTED*...
And ya'all still support her...
And not indicted for some piddly ass political machinations...
Indicted for improper handling of STATE SECRETS and CLASSIFIED INTELLIGENCE...
Something the Left Wingery went apeshit over when it was General "Betray-Us".... Don't think I have forgotten THAT..
Michale
092
Has anyone here ever voted Republican???
Yes.
I have voted for third parties much more often though...
That is the problem of using your tit for tat crutch instead of a decent argument. A little less than half the voting public requires such a large brush as to make your point pretty meaningless. Also, I do disagree with democrats all the time. That does not mean I automatically agree with republicans. Not everyone lives in binary opposition land...
There is absolutely NOTHING in your comments for the last 8-10 years that would even INDICATE that you wouldn't support the Dem nominee for POTUS..
Actually I believe there is, but I will leave you to find it...
'Tis the season.. :D
'Tis every season...
Many of ya'all have stated for the record that ya'all will hold yer noses and vote for Hillary....
Assuming she is the nominee, I will vote for her without holding my nose.
Hillary is a candidate that could VERY LIKELY be *INDICTED*...
Not all of us jump on to every fishing expedition...
So, if Trump was the Dem Candidate...
Ya'all would vote for him...
Simple, yes. logic, no.
Indicted for improper handling of STATE SECRETS and CLASSIFIED INTELLIGENCE...
We shall see...
M-12 I would say that 60% faith puts me in the doubters pew. That number comes primarily from my assessment of the electoral college landscape, plus the fact that this is a Presidential year which tends to favor good Dem turnout. Demographics shifts roughly cancel out disenfranchisement efforts. The prediction markets tend to agree with my educated gut reaction, which is nice. I don't pay much attention to polls this early in the game.
M-16
TheStig raises his right hand. As recently as the last election.
There is absolutely NOTHING in your comments for the last 8-10 years that would even INDICATE that you wouldn't support the Dem nominee for POTUS..
Actually I believe there is, but I will leave you to find it...
About the ONLY thing that might qualify is your stance on gun control...
But, as of late, you are fully in the Leftist camp in that regard as well, so.....
'Tis every season...
With a few minor exceptions I have been pretty good about restricting my OT comments to FTP which has been, traditionally speaking, what has happened..
Try and be fair..
Oh.. Wait... :^/
Assuming she is the nominee, I will vote for her without holding my nose.
Which is exactly what I said. You will overlook her Wall Street ties and all her lies and vote for her because she has a '-D' after her name..
Just like you would overlook Trump's faults and vote for him if HE had a '-D' after his name...
Not all of us jump on to every fishing expedition...
You ignore the facts...
Do you think the FBI investigates for sheets and greens???
If it was a GOP'er, you would be assembling your tackle and your rod for a grand expedition..
Don't bother denying it because we both know it's the facts...
Simple, yes. logic, no.
And your response is bullshit.. We both know you would..
Indicted for improper handling of STATE SECRETS and CLASSIFIED INTELLIGENCE...
We shall see...
Yes, we will..
Are you ready to accept the challenge laid out in comment #4??
No??
Didn't think so....
You were saying something about not being in the bag for the Democrat Party?? :D
Michale
0945
If it was a GOP'er, you would be assembling your tackle and your rod for a grand expedition..
Apologies..
I had no business talking about your rod... :D
Heh
Michale
095
About the ONLY thing that might qualify is your stance on gun control...
Nope. Try again.
And your response is bullshit.. We both know you would..
You can tit for tat your faulty logic till the cows come home. I would not vote for Trump if he had a D after his name. I would vote third party in protest.
Are you still supporting Trump? You were on his bandwagon pretty strongly during the birther crap...
Actually, I have been on record as stating several times that I am not supporting Trump...
But why let little things like FACTS stop ya... :D
All I have stated is that Trump is a viable candidate... Something ya'all have argued against for months...
Michale
096
Who is this "ya'all" you speak of? I've never seen them post before...
Nate Silver had a column on the challenges facing Donald Trump (which I'll summarize as well as provide a link):
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trumps-six-stages-of-doom/
1. Free for all - This is Donald happy land.
2. Heightened Scrutiny - This has just started and is meant to be where celebrities start to get serious questions about their real policies (no sign of this yet IMO)
3. Iowa & New Hampshire - silly season may continue (e.g. Huckabee winning in 2008)
4. Winnowing - the number of candidates drops to 2-3 strong players and 20-30% is not a winning hand but par for the course - thus Donald has to start to grow his base
5. Delegate Accumulation - this requires a lot of state level organization and has to be planned months in advance - Donald has not been putting effort into this and so may not have delegates to be voted for in some states. Plus there is no law that states that a delegate must vote at the convention for the candidate they represented in the election (strange system, but there you go)
6. The Convention - the party gets to make many of the rules and can change them to suit themselves. Their challenge will be to get Donald to agree to lose AND not form a breakaway campaign.
Nate Silver gives The Donald only a 50% chance of getting past each of these (however he has got past the free for all).
1/(2^5) = ~3%. Betting markets have Donald at 20+%
If I was a betting man I'd be shorting Donald big time.
And, I don't want to hit the sack without hitting an even 100...
So.....
Taa daaa :D
Thanx guys.. Couldn't have done it without ya'all!! :D
Michale
100
A rumor has exploded online that Marco Rubio has been foolin' around -- that may be where all the money was going -- and his mistress (purportedly a D.C. Lobbyist) -- will be coming forward. I'm withholding judgement until more information is provided, but it would certainly be an interesting development in the Repub primary race if it turns out to be true. I guess we'll know pretty soon.
Keep dreaming, Paula.. :D
But even if it were true, considering who the Dem Candidate will be, does the Left REALLY want to make infidelity a campaign talking point?? :D
Michale
101
This article has a little bit of everything in it, including the subject of this commentary, Trump's candidacy..
The First Amendment Needs Your Prayers
Jumping on anyone who publicly expressed a religious feeling after the San Bernardino massacre. Where are we heading?
http://www.wsj.com/article_email/the-first-amendment-needs-your-prayers-1449187707-lMyQjAxMTI1NDA1NDQwMzQ1Wj
It's a good read....
Lays out EXACTLY what's wrong with the Left Wingery these days...
Michale
103
Who is this "ya'all" you speak of? I've never seen them post before...
That's because you selectively read ONLY that which supports your agenda..
Kinda like your Global Warming position.. :D
Weigantia is replete with comments from it's denizens deriding Trump's candidacy with claims of... "He'll blow it!!" and "He said that!?? He's done!!" etc etc...
And so it goes... and so it goes.. :D
Michale
104
If I was a betting man I'd be shorting Donald big time.
I have watching TRADING PLACES dozens of times and I still don't understand the process..
Care to elaborate?? :D
Michale
105
WARNING: TORTURED SYNTAX!!
I have watching TRADING PLACES dozens of times and I still don't understand the process..
Grrrrrrr :D
That, of course, SHOULD read:
I have BEEN watching TRADING PLACES dozens of times and I still don't understand the process..
My bust..
Michale
108
NeilMc-27
A recent round table from 538 featuring Nate et al. on the subject of Trump:
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/big-phony-and-loser-nate-silver-cant-even-see-donald-trump-is-a-winner-what-a-joke/
"not only have Trump-like candidates not won, but they haven’t come particularly close to winning."
"It’s one thing to say that the party chooses its nominee. That’s not always true. But can the party prevent someone from hijacking its nomination when the consequences for it would be disastrous? My guess is that it can."
I’m not saying it’s impossible for Trump to win. But it’s unlikely — less likely than betting markets and the conventional wisdom hold.
comment 35 just got prematurely launched by a cat treading on the my mouse finger..this happens more often than you might think. Continuing, and noting that all the quotes are from Nate Silver, who contends Trump's chances of winning the nomination are highly inflated:
"You’ve had candidates like Newt Gingrich and Pat Buchanan win individual states before, but they haven’t been able to sustain their momentum."
"Go back and look at past polling frontrunners at this stage of the campaign. They have a poor track record. By contrast, go back and look at who was leading in general elections in late October. They have a very good track record."
"voters aren’t paying a lot of attention. Only 20 percent or so of the voters in Iowa have come to a final decision. Half the voters in New Hampshire won’t decide until the final week of the campaign."
"A completely uninformed model would give Trump a 1 in 14 chance, since there are 14 candidates left. Which is 7 percent. So I’m actually pretty close to that."
"Endorsements are just a proxy for party support."
Silver has a real knack for seeing the big picture IMHO.
I’m not saying it’s impossible for Trump to win. But it’s unlikely — less likely than betting markets and the conventional wisdom hold.
A little county in Indiana has picked the correct winner of Presidential Elections every time (sans 2) since 1888...
That county is going Trump... :D
So, there is conventional wisdom and there is conventional wisdom...
I am not saying ya'all are wrong..
I am just saying ya'all might not be right.. :D
Michale
111
Michale [33]: Shorting
Basically it is a bet that a price will decline.
In the stock market you agree to sell shares at a fixed price in the future. Thus:
Today: IBM stock = $140
Short: I will sell 100 shares of IBM at $120 in one month time
If in one month time IBM shares are $100, I get $2,000 for my short (called a 'put' in the market).
If in one month time IBM shares are $160, I owe $4,000.
As I said, I'm not a betting man, but I do use long straddles on occasion.
Sorry - I confused myself - if IBM shares are $160, I owe $6,000 :)
Neil,
Thanx... I am a little less confused now.. :D
Still doubt I could make a living at Day Trading. :D
Michale
115
No - I was right the first time - see why shorting is tricky :)
Heh :D
Michale
117
M-37
"So bellwether sheep are a lot like bellwether voters. We can tell where they've been (sheep leave tell-tale signs), and we know where they are, but we really can't be sure where they're going."
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=96116110
Today's Politico Story characterized Vigo County as white, rural and poor, the first two are looking less and less like the US population, poor seems to be holding steady. Politico gave a few anecdotes to suggest Vigo is going for Trump, but I doubt any scientific polls have been taken there, and I'm sure Vigo hasn't held it's 2016 election yet. Only the actual vote counts.
Today's Politico Story characterized Vigo County as white, rural and poor, the first two are looking less and less like the US population, poor seems to be holding steady.
And yet, they have STILL picked winners since 1956....
Apparently they are doing SOMETHING right... :D
Michale
I am also constrained to point out that NO INCUMBENT PARTY has retained the White House with a POTUS approval rating less than 50%....
75% of Americans think the country is headed in the wrong direction...
And ya'all think that the current Party in the POTUS-ency will prevail???
If that is not wish-casting, what is?? :D
Michale
120
M-44
You seem to assume that Vigo has already chosen...but that's not how the magic works.
Here is the ritual:
everybody votes...the polls close...the votes are counted...the electoral college does it's thing...the winner is announced....the winner is compared to who got the most votes in Vigo.
This ritual isn't a prediction, it's a postdiction, if I may coin a phrase. Or a post hoc correlation if you prefer. You can't tell if Vigo got it right until all the votes are in and counted (assuming the SCOTUS doesn't get involved)!
45 - Up until 2012, no presidential candidate got elected unless he was 100% white and male.
45 - Up until 2012, no presidential candidate got elected unless he was 100% white and male.
OK, so you are hoping for another Obama phenomena..
Why didn't you just say so?? :D
This ritual isn't a prediction, it's a postdiction, if I may coin a phrase. Or a post hoc correlation if you prefer. You can't tell if Vigo got it right until all the votes are in and counted (assuming the SCOTUS doesn't get involved)!
Oh puuulleeeeessseeee
Do you REALLY want to go there?? :D
Michale
119
Michale wrote:
"Has anyone here ever voted Republican???
I don't mean switched Partys and then voted Party line..
I mean has anyone here been registered a Democrat but voted Republican in a Congressional or Presidential election??
Anyone??? Anyone???
I can honestly say that I have voted for both Republicans AND Democrats...
Can anyone here make the same claim??
I am betting the answer is no..."
You lose that bet. I voted for Ronald Reagan, TWICE. I even liked the FIRST George Bush. But I have voted for every Democrat after that, because the Republicans have gone off the rails into right wing looney land since then.
You lose that bet.
Wouldn't be the first time.. :D
I even liked the FIRST George Bush. But I have voted for every Democrat after that, because the Republicans have gone off the rails into right wing looney land since then.
OK... If you voted Reagan and BUsh as a Democrat then I stand corrected..
That's one.. :D
Michale
128
i wasn't old enough to vote between bush senior and dukakis. if i could vote in that election now, i would absolutely not vote to reverse the results. bush senior worked with the democratic congress to reverse the damage of the 80's excesses and lay the groundwork for late 90's prosperity and advent of the information age.
reagan on the other hand is the most overrated president ever. he got credit for all sorts of stuff that he didn't do and avoided the blame for stuff that was legitimately his fault. e.g. winning the cold war was really more nixon's doing, while osama bin laden's rise to power in afghanistan occurred as a direct result of reagan foreign policy.
JL
JL,
Not surprising in the least...
That's 2... :D
Michale
142
i wasn't old enough to vote between bush senior and dukakis
Now I feel old.. :)
Michale
145