Republican End-Game Speculation
What is going to happen to the Republican Party in next year's general election campaign? We could be on the verge of a major shift in the American political system, which is always interesting to speculate about (whether it winds up happening or not). Donald Trump, love him or hate him, has certainly followed through on making this one of the most interesting presidential nomination races of all time. As the saying goes, we're all cursed to be living in interesting times -- at least for the next year or so.
As I see it now, there are four realistic scenarios which could play out. Trump fueled speculation about one of them recently, pointing to a poll which showed that 68 percent of his supporters would back him if he ran an independent campaign. This is already sending chills down the backs of the Republican establishment, as they contemplate President Hillary Clinton being sworn into office.
Trump's got a point, though, and that point is that many of his supporters are Trump voters first and Republicans second -- as an afterthought, almost. They're not loyal to the party, they're loyal to Trump. It's a textbook example of the political "cult of personality," in fact.
Now, nobody knows what's going to happen in the primary season early next year. Trump could -- as everyone's been long predicting -- flame out and be eclipsed by another GOP candidate. But at this point it's just as likely that Trump loses a few state races but wins enough of them that he's the strongest candidate, delegate-wise. He'll probably do pretty well in the South, for instance. If there are two or more candidates with a goodly amount of delegates, this could even lead to a brokered convention (such interesting speculation really deserves an article of its own, so we'll merely touch on it here). But it is no longer inconceivable that Donald Trump somehow emerges as the nominee of the Republican Party. So we start with two basic scenarios: Trump wins the nomination, or Trump loses the nomination. But we have to further divide that by asking what happens after Trump either wins or loses. This gives us four scenarios to contemplate.
Trump wins nomination, Republicans reluctantly back him
It's already a question reporters ask Republicans in order to frighten them: "Will you support Donald Trump if he becomes your party's nominee?" So far, Republicans have mostly either dodged entirely or cowered in fear when attempting to answer that question. They can either show party loyalty, or they can show they don't support all the crazy things Trump is proposing. Either way has political risks right now, to state the obvious.
But what happens when it becomes a reality? If Trump wins enough early states to guarantee the nomination, then Republicans are going to have to come up with an answer to that question that they can live with. Not unlike when they faced the prospect of supporting Sarah Palin for vice president, most Republicans will probably grit their teeth and support their party's candidate. Perhaps it'll be half-hearted or reluctant support, but they'll rally around being against Hillary Clinton (or, to be fair, Bernie Sanders). "Trump's a clown, but we'd rather back a clown than Hillary" will become their refrain.
This will in all likelihood not work. Independent voters (who do not vote in primaries, for the most part) will not be flocking to Trump's banner. If they stay home or support Clinton, then she'll win handily. Likeliest result: President Clinton.
Trump wins nomination, Republicans bolt their own party
Nobody's yet contemplating this one, but it could actually happen -- it's not as far-fetched as you might initially think. If Trump wraps up the nomination early, there may be a split within the Republican Party. The establishmentarian wing may just bolt the Republican Party and form a new political entity (perhaps the "New Elephant Party" or something). This would be an epic split on the order of the Dixiecrats leaving the Democratic Party over opposing civil rights. There might be enough Republicans -- party officials, political officeholders, candidates, and voters -- so disgusted by the prospect of Donald Trump leading their party that they just walk away.
Of course, the two major political parties have long used their power to stack the deck against any and all third parties ever getting more than a toehold on American politics, so the path to getting an alternative presidential candidate on the ballot will be long and arduous. However, if the moneyed elite in the Republican Party are among those leaving it, they might have the ability to get on every state's ballot. The New Elephants would run their own slate of candidates, wooing voters who are fiscally conservative but also still believe in getting things done over political grandstanding with nothing to show for it. The Tea Partiers and the Trump supporters would be left with the shell of the Republican Party. It's impossible to estimate the relative size of both parties after this split, and the two might be strong in certain geographical areas but weak in others (the New Elephants might have a stronghold in New England and the Midwest while the Republicans hold onto the South, for instance).
Of course, while this whole scenario is extremely interesting, the end result would be to split the non-Democratic vote. No matter how Trump did against whichever candidate the New Elephants put up, both will lose to Hillary in a landslide of historic proportions. Net result: President Clinton.
Trump loses nomination, makes third-party run
This is the one that's currently got the inside-the-Beltway crowd all a-twitter. This is mostly due to many pundits and political prognosticators clinging to the hope that, eventually, Trump will go too far and crash and burn. Of course, Trump supporters don't have "too far" in their vocabulary, preferring instead "not far enough!" But that too is a subject for another day, really.
Suppose the anti-Trump candidate does eventually emerge from the Republican pack. Marco Rubio or Ted Cruz could surge and overtake Trump at the polls. If Trump loses some early primaries, he won't look like such a "winner" any more to the voters. So he could never actually materialize his support in the voting booth (or at least not as well as he expected). But if Trump does win some primaries along the way and stacks up an impressive number of delegates, then he may very well decide to go it alone. He'd say that the Republican Party hadn't "been fair" to him, and therefore that much-ballyhooed agreement he signed (pledging not to make a third-party run) was now null and void.
If Trump does decide to create the Trump Party (or possibly the "Make America Great Party"), it is going to enrage a whole lot of Republicans but it'll also delight Trump's followers. Nothing like sticking it in the eye of all those stuffed shirts in Washington, eh? Trump's certainly got enough money and manpower to get his name on all the ballots, with plenty left over for advertising and creating a party establishment. Trump would enjoy the heck out of being on a debate stage with Hillary Clinton and the Republican candidate, that's for sure. That right there might be enough to convince him to make such a run, in fact.
Just as in the previous scenario, the result would be the same: a split vote from Republican and conservative voters, and a landslide for Clinton. Once again, net result is that President Hillary is sworn in.
Trump loses nomination, goes quietly home
This is the one many Republicans are sincerely hoping for. If Trump does lose the nomination, he may get tired of the whole political game and decide he's got better things to do than to run what is surely to be a losing third-party campaign. For this to happen, a strong anti-Trump Republican candidate is going to have to emerge -- which has not happened yet, but still could. If Trump starts coming in second or even third in the early primaries, his supporters may give up on him. How likely a scenario this will be is anyone's guess. I consider it to be facing longer odds by the day, but not everyone agrees.
What many establishment Republicans now want to see (now that Jeb Bush has fallen so far) is for Marco Rubio to become their nominee. They see Rubio as the best candidate to take on Clinton, in many ways. He's young, providing a contrast with Hillary. He's Latino, so he might pull in some Latino votes. He's a fast talker who can take all sides of an issue simultaneously without many listening to him catching on. This all may be correct, in fact -- Rubio does much better against Clinton than all other Republican candidates, in most of the head-to-head polling that's been done so far.
But whether the party coalesces around Rubio or another Republican, Donald Trump decides he's had enough and flies back to New York on his giant airplane. The result of this one is the hardest to predict. The eventual outcome of the general election race is impossible to call, with a more conventional Republican candidate running without a third-party Trump biting at his heels. The Republicans would have a very realistic shot at winning the White House in this scenario, mostly because historically it has been very hard for any political party to hold the presidency for three or more sequential terms.
Net result: a close campaign and a tossup election. The odds of this (or any other of these scenarios) happening? Impossible for me to predict, at this point.
-- Chris Weigant
Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant
how about Trump wins nomination, Republicans change their tune and get on-board full throttle? or, Trump loses nomination, throws his full support behind whoever beats him?
JL
My vote is for the GOP to split -- scenario 2 or 3. I'd have more respect for "moderate or traditional" republicans if they walked, but I think it's a bit more likely that the Tea Partiers would walk. But the "establishment" is most likely to swallow what's left of their alleged principles and back Trump if he wins. Enough bootlicking and they'll get into his good graces and then we can only pray they all sink together.
Possibility: Trump wins nomination, and establishment Republicans sit out the election. They neither back Trump nor form a third party.
This might interest you, CW. From the heartland of America, Ohio's Republicans are still on record supporting Trump.
http://www.cincinnati.com/story/news/politics/elections/2015/12/08/would-key-ohio-republicans-support-trump/76975786/
Reading the tea leaves, I believe the thinking is something along the lines of:
1) They hate Hillary Clinton more than Hitler.
2) We hate liberals.
3) We hate liberals.
4) We hate liberals.
No, seriously. It's almost impossible for me to describe some of the sentiments I'm hearing in Southwest Ohio. I guess it's been ugly for a while but it's gotten just animal since Trump and the attacks in France and San Bernadino. Pure confused rage.
I think it's Trump.
-David
With respect to Scenario 2, if the Republican Establishment decides to bolt, can they take the Party Name, assets and trade marks with them? If the GOP is a corporation, and the Establishment controls the Board of Directors, then I think they could. The Exodus would be more like a putsch. Any corporate lawyers among the Intelliweigantsia? My searches are coming up blank.
Donald Trump, love him or hate him, has certainly followed through on making this one of the most interesting presidential nomination races of all time. As the saying goes, we're all cursed to be living in interesting times -- at least for the next year or so.
Not interesting. Dangerous and destructive to the fabric of America.
Trump doesn't have to be the nominee to continue being a walking strategic disaster.
With respect to Scenario 4, even if Trump goes quietly, a large number of his supporters probably won't. Charges of fraud, an Establishment "stab in the back," the internet chain emails go into high gear. The Trump crazies write in minor parities, stay home and stay mad. The GOP nominee has been forced to triangle-ate far right in order to win the primaries, which costs too many independent votes in the critical swing states. Frankly, this doesn't look much different, or better than Scenario 1. It's the "kill the Republican brand" problem that ate Romney.
Trump would love the attention. For a celebrity, any attention is better than no attention.
6- "Not interesting. Dangerous and destructive to the fabric of America."
Liz is telling us, in the nicest way possible, that America's political ass is showing. Canada, avert your eyes! Mexico, please stop throwing rocks at it! This is soooo embarrassing!
I'm glad you find this so amusing. You're certainly not alone ...
TS, You really have no idea what I'm telling you.
Remember when the GOP forced Trump to sign that loyalty pledge? He signed it because he knew that it actually amounted to the rest of the contestants vowing loyalty to Trump.
This will in all likelihood not work. Independent voters (who do not vote in primaries, for the most part) will not be flocking to Trump's banner.
{{cough}} {cough} bullshit {{cough}}
By his very nature, Trump is an Independents dream candidate...
Your scenarios are best-case for Democrats...
What about other factors??
Michale
219
how about Trump wins nomination, Republicans change their tune and get on-board full throttle? or, Trump loses nomination, throws his full support behind whoever beats him?
Like that?? :D
Michale
220
David,
No, seriously. It's almost impossible for me to describe some of the sentiments I'm hearing in Southwest Ohio. I guess it's been ugly for a while but it's gotten just animal since Trump and the attacks in France and San Bernadino. Pure confused rage.
Much like the rage from the Left over Bush???
But, the important question is not whether there is rage or not..
The important question is *WHY* there is rage??
No one wants to answer that...
Michale
221
David,
No, seriously. It's almost impossible for me to describe some of the sentiments I'm hearing in Southwest Ohio. I guess it's been ugly for a while but it's gotten just animal since Trump and the attacks in France and San Bernadino. Pure confused rage.
Much like the rage from the Left over Bush???
But, the important question is not whether there is rage or not..
The important question is *WHY* there is rage??
No one wants to answer that...
Michale
221
Any corporate lawyers among the Intelliweigantsia?
Oooooooo a new word!! I like it!! :D
Michale
{ROOM} 222 :D
Not interesting. Dangerous and destructive to the fabric of America.
Trump doesn't have to be the nominee to continue being a walking strategic disaster.
And many on the Right and practically every Independent in the country thinks the same thing about Hillary Clinton..
What makes ALL of them wrong and you right??
Sincere question, albeit poorly phrased...
Michale
223
Remember when the GOP forced Trump to sign that loyalty pledge? He signed it because he knew that it actually amounted to the rest of the contestants vowing loyalty to Trump.
Mark this on yer calender's, people!!
JFC actually made a rational, logical, understandable and SALIENT point!!!
The END OF DAYS must surely be upon us! :D
Michale
224
Here's the thing and there is just no getting around it...
Democrats hate Trump...
Republicans hate Trump...
But **AMERICANS** love Trump...
Americans who look down on BOTH Partys as greedy, incompetent morons LOVE Trump, respect Trump...
That's the part that ya'all don't get...
Michale
225
I readily admit that Trump's bombasity is a plus for the Democrat Party and makes for an uncertain election...
Democrats have so many strikes against them going into the 2016 Election, not the least of which is historical precedent upon historical precedent upon historical precedent...
More than three quarters of the American people think this country is heading in the wrong direction.. And you think the American people will put Obama On Steroids BACK into the White House??
http://tinyurl.com/ph5yfl5
Pure and simple..
Michale
226
Another possibility that has as much chance as any of the others..
Trump mounts a 3rd Party bid and WINS the General Election with millions and millions of Americans who are so utterly fed up with Democrats AND Republicans voting Trump.
Stranger things have happened...
Michale
227
Much like the rage from the Left over Bush?
No.
Bush made horrible decisions. Like 2 wars and crashing the economy This is why people wanted him out.
The economy is coming back under Obama and we've avoided more pointless wars. The hate is not rational and it's ugly. It's fascist.
-David
Obama has made "horrible decisions" as well...
He came in with 2 wars and he will leave with THREE wars...
And yes, if you cherry pick selected data the economy is "coming back"..
But if you ask Joe and Jane Sixpack if they are better off under Obama and the Democrats??
You'll get a resounding HELL NO...
It's all about perspective, David..
Michale
228
The hate is not rational and it's ugly. It's fascist.
I get it... Hate from the Right is "ugly" and "fascist"...
What's hate from the Left??? Goodness and light??? :D
Michale
229
TrainWreck Care... A crappy economy... Americans being brutally murdered by terrorists.. More wars than ever...
By ANY litmus test you want to dream up, Obama is a failure....
Do you think it's by happenstance that Democrats have been getting their asses handed to them in the Great Nuclear Shellacking Of 2014 and since then, across local, county, state and federal lines??
Do you think it's a mirage that over three fourths of Americans think this country is heading the wrong way...
What do you say to these FACTS??
http://tinyurl.com/ph5yfl5
Michale
230
Michale,
What are Obama's horrible decisions? Just identify a couple of them.
What are Obama's horrible decisions? Just identify a couple of them.
How much time ya got??
The decision to treat Daesch as "The JV Team" and mitigate their capabilities...
Let's start with that one...
Michale
231
TS and Michale,
Here is quote from a respected New York Times columnist (okay, I'm fully cognizant of the fact that the two of you may have zero respect for him but, I'm going to quote him, anyway) that is spot on in one respect and, in a sense, way off base:
"As for Trump, well, he may be a deal maker, but he’s no poker player ready for the Middle East five-card stud sharks. His xenophobic rhetoric and unrealistic, infantile threats of massive bombing make up the kind of simplistic hand you’d play in “Go Fish” — not in this high-stakes game. Beyond playing into ISIS’s hand by denigrating the U.S. presidency and our democratic ideals, Trump is doing real damage to America’s ability to lead a coalition, the only vehicle that can effectively address this problem. #You ain’t no American, bro...Thomas Friedman
This is precisely what I meant when I said that Trump is a walking strategic disaster, whether or not he ever gets close to being the Republican nominee for president. Unless he shuts the hell up, he will remain a dangerous and destructive force against America. Period.
On the other hand, what Friedman fails to recognize in his latest column is that Trump supporters, apologists and others who see his machinations as amusing and worthy of more air time and bandwidth without seriously condemning his rhetoric are acting in an equally dangerous and destructive manner against their own country.
And, in so doing, can reasonably be called enemies within and, frankly, un-American ... especially during the times in which we now live - which, let's be clear, are far more dangerous than they are interesting.
Michale,
Let me put it another way ...
Is it possible for you to tap out a comment that let's us know what you would do to defeat ISIS that President Obama and others are not already doing?
Try to give it some degree of thought before answering.
By the way ... so far, none of your 231 comments qualify to engender any financial support from me for this still valuable site. But, I remain a cockeyed optimist. :)
Is it possible for you to tap out a comment that let's us know what you would do to defeat ISIS that President Obama and others are not already doing
I have already laid out my plans before..
But I'll do it again..
Bomb them back into the stone age and let the Sunni forces go in and pick up the pieces...
Tell the other forces in the area to either follow or get the hell out of the way...
Obama is giving an HOURS WARNING to Daesch troops before bombing them!!!
By the way ... so far, none of your 231 comments qualify to engender any financial support from me for this still valuable site. But, I remain a cockeyed optimist. :)
Oh shit.. If I am the determining factor....??? :D
Michale
232
Are there any GOP candidates though who are better than Trump, Liz?
Maybe ... John Kasich? Maybe. I mean I'd probably vote for him over Trump and he's the guy who pulled $1 billion/year out of the Ohio economy.
I actually think Trump is better then a couple of the Republican candidates.
Isn't the real problem that Trump has over 4 million people following him on Twitter and is leading the Republican presidential primary? Isn't the real problem that there are people who actually want a Hitler for President?
-David
Liz,
Regarding Friedman..
The problem that he has, and that ya'all have as well is that ya'all are judging Trump from a partisan politics stand point as opposed to a LEADERSHIP stand point...
In other words, Trump doesn't play the Political Games that make the political world go round so he MUST be bad...
If ya'all could forget politics for a second (I know, I know.. An impossible request) and view Trump thru the eyes of a person completely devoid of partisanship, ya'all would see EXACTLY why Trump is so popular...
Michale
233
Isn't the real problem that Trump has over 4 million people following him on Twitter and is leading the Republican presidential primary? Isn't the real problem that there are people who actually want a Hitler for President?
Ah, wasn't that my point?
I actually think Trump is better then a couple of the Republican candidates.
In what unfathomable sense?
Isn't the real problem that Trump has over 4 million people following him on Twitter and is leading the Republican presidential primary? Isn't the real problem that there are people who actually want a Hitler for President?
Was FDR a "Hitler"???
Because FDR wanted to "ban" Germans, Italians and Japanese in the beginning of 1942...
This is EXACTLY what I am talking about..
Ya'all simply CAN'T see past the '-R' in Trump's name...
NOTHING can get thru the Partisan shell ya'all have created around yerselves..
Michale
234
The problem with Trump supporters, apologists and others who are attracted to him by his obtuse and dangerous rhetoric is NOT that they are devoid of partisanship. It's that they are devoid of intellect.
By the way, Michale, I understand perfectly well why Trump is as popular as he is. And, THAT is what makes him so dangerous and destructive and why "he ain't no American, bro" ...
The problem with Trump supporters, apologists and others who are attracted to him by his obtuse and dangerous rhetoric is NOT that they are devoid of partisanship. It's that they are devoid of intellect
And they say the EXACT same thing about people who DON'T support Trump...
What makes them wrong and you right??
And, THAT is what makes him so dangerous and destructive and why "he ain't no American, bro" ...
Trump is only "dangerous" to the Left Wingery's vision of what America SHOULD be..
And, as we see in the here and now, the Left Wingery's version of what America SHOULD be really.. REALLY sucks...
Michale
235
Michale,
Now, see ... you didn't think at all before tapping out what you would do to defeat IS.
For instance, what happens after you bomb the terrorists into the stone age? Who will fill the political vacuum left behind. Hint: we've seen this movie and its sequel before!
And, what Sunni forces are you talking about? The ones who aren't lining up to wreak havoc on America in the wake of destruction left by the likes of Trump and his ilk?
Seriously, what Sunni forces are you talking about and how do you account for the Sunni Shi'a divide across the Middle East and its impact on what comes after your bombing campaign which, indubitably, will demonstrate to us all how "sand will glow in the dark", to quote one of Trumps fellow Republican travelers?
Democrats And Republicans
http://tinyurl.com/guuqae7
A story as old as time itself....
Michale
236
That's your story and its getting very, very old.
Give it up, Michale ... it's boring me to death.
That's your story and its getting very, very old.
The only reason it's old is because it's factually accurate and no one has been able to successfully refute it..
Hay, I go with what works.. :D
Michale
237
For instance, what happens after you bomb the terrorists into the stone age? Who will fill the political vacuum left behind. Hint: we've seen this movie and its sequel before!
And it WORKED!!!
Even Obama and Biden said that Iraq was stable...
Until Obama left too early... And the Iraq beget ISIS...
and how do you account for the Sunni Shi'a divide across the Middle East
Why do I have to account for it??
OK, so you don't like my plan.. I know, I know.. It's aggressive and it will WORK, but Leftys don't like violence and such...
I get that..
Is Obama's plan working???
No it's not...
Daesch is *NOT* contained... Daesch just committed the BIGGEST terrorist attack on US soil in the last 15 years...
And Obama's response??
"Stay The Course"...
Bush was ridiculed for that..
But Obama has a '-D' after his name, so ya'all are ALL FOR that failed and failing strategy...
These are the facts, whether you admit them or not..
Michale
238
Obama said that Daesch was contained..
Then over 470 innocents were killed and wounded in Paris..
Obama said that there is no risk of an attack on US soil...
Almost 30 people killed and wounded in San Bernardino...
How many times is Obama going to have to be COMPLETELY WRONG.... How many people are going to have to DIE....
Before you hold Obama accountable??
Ya'all held Bush accountable for EVERY little hangnail... Ya'all held Bush accountable for **EVERYTHING**...
You hold Obama accountable for NOTHING...
Why is that??
I'll tell you why...
SOLELY and COMPLETELY because of that little '-X' after the name...
It's THAT simple....
Michale
239
I know, I know, I know...
I am infuriating..
But I am ONLY infuriating because ya'all know that I am factually dead on ballz accurate...
Michale
240
Here's another Obama horrible decision..
Determined to continue bringing in Syrian refugees even though the terrorist link is established beyond ANY doubt..
Michale
241
But **AMERICANS** love Trump...
Trump proposed a complete border restriction against anyone muslim, and cited FDR's internment of Japanese as justification (Korematsu v. United States).
i am an american, and i most definitely do NOT love trump. i would speculate that the japanese-american descendants of korematsu might feel the same.
JL
Trump proposed a complete border restriction against anyone muslim, and cited FDR's internment of Japanese as justification (Korematsu v. United States).
But, at the time, it was the correct action to take..
At least Democrats thought so..
That's the point..
i am an american, and i most definitely do NOT love trump.
Fair enough... But apparently, a *LOT* of Americans do....
But it's interesting..
During the Bush years, the Left Wingery wanted to leave Iraqi muslims to their own fate... "None of our business" was the prevailing sentiment from the Left...
But now, what's changed??
Oh yea, that's right.. NOW we have a POTUS with a '-D' after his name..
That's the difference that makes ALL the difference....
Apparently...
Michale
242
If Democrats and Republicans are the same, why are you on here non-stop about Republicans? :)
In what unfathomable sense?
He supports social security and the social safety net.
Would I vote for him? Not if there's a better alternative. But I don't think he's the worst in the GOP field.
What he does do is say out loud what all the other candidates (and the base) are thinking?
This used to be the death knell of Republican politicians.
-David
The problem with Trump supporters, apologists and others who are attracted to him by his obtuse and dangerous rhetoric is NOT that they are devoid of partisanship. It's that they are devoid of intellect.
No offense, Liz... But this is exactly what's wrong with today's political climate..
There is NO ROOM for reasonable or rational disagreement.
If you respect Trump's accomplishments, yer an idiot..
If you oppose Obama's policies, yer a racist...
And what is so utterly mind-boggling is that this sort of animosity, once the sole purview of the Hysterical Right is now predominantly coming from the Left...
Michale
243
And it WORKED!!!
Under which Bush?
Until Obama left too early... And the Iraq beget ISIS...
That is a remarkably right wing biased why to describe it. Where is the vaulted independence? Now who signed the U.S.–Iraq Status of Forces Agreement? I don't remember it being Obama...
Why do I have to account for it??
So you don't have to go right back and deal with the same problem a few years after you call the place "stable".
OK, so you don't like my plan.. I know, I know.. It's aggressive and it will WORK, but Leftys don't like violence and such...
Bombing back to the stone age. Does that mean massive dumb munitions? Or huge quantities of smart munitions? If the dumb munitions, you are going to kill massive amount of civilians which should magnify the terrorism problem a few fold. If you plan on using massive amounts of smart weapons, how are you going to pay for it?
Obama said that Daesch was contained..
In a discussion specifically about Iraq and Syrian territory, as you would have noticed if you had bothered to read the paragraph to which that line was picked out of context from.
Is there some reason beyond political bias that you have suddenly moved to a combined killed/wounded from just killed? Fluffing the numbers help your political bias?
If you respect Trump's accomplishments, yer an idiot. >
What accomplishments?
His bankruptcies? Multiple marriages? Using his dad's wealth to make more money?
I think what everyone wonders is, what do people like about the guy?
And then you realize that if you take away his crazy comments, there's not much left. All he does is say things about people who look different than him.
Which isn't very different from the modern GOP.
-David
If Democrats and Republicans are the same, why are you on here non-stop about Republicans? :)
Because if I was here non-stop for Democrats, it would be kinda redundant, no?? :D
Having said that, I *DO* go after the Republicans Party.. Often...
A HELLUVA lot more often than ya'all go after the Democrat Party..
But I understand that because ya'all are good loyal Democrats... That's why it's so hard for ya'all to fathom someone like me.. Someone who HAS no Party loyalty.... :D
What he does do is say out loud what all the other candidates (and the base) are thinking?
No... He says aloud what YOU think all other candidates and the base are thinking...
Republicans are evil liars and that is that...
Michale
244
What accomplishments?
He has a LOT more accomplishments than Hillary Clinton..
He is a successful business man who is richer than god..
Hillary's only claim to fame is her husband got a blow job and she ignored 600 3am phone calls and got Americans killed...
You yourself has stated how bad Hillary Clinton is... At least you USED to... Right up to the point that she became the coronated one...
I think what everyone wonders is, what do people like about the guy?
And, because YA'ALL don't like him, than anyone who does is an idiot...
THAT's my point...
And then you realize that if you take away his crazy comments, there's not much left. All he does is say things about people who look different than him.
And yet, when he had a '-D' after his name, Democrats flocked to him like he was the second coming...
Pure 1984....
"We are at war with East Asia. We have always been at war with East Asia"
This enslavement to the '-X' is completely baffling to me...
Michale
245
Liz -28
"I'm fully cognizant of the fact that the two of you may have zero respect for him".....
no, it's editorials by David Brookes that consistently annoy me to the extent of near zero respect.
I think he's pretty much on target about Trump's credibility in matters Middle East, but blanket application of the term "five-card stud sharks" to the resident cast of characters in the Levant and Iraq is an insult to to genuine five-card stud sharks. If the alleged sharks were that good, Syria and Iraq would be functioning countries and ISIS would be able to actually keep services running in the territory it controls. Home court advantage is not the same thing as genius. Don't underestimate your adversaries, but don't overcompensate by making them 10 feet tall either. Most pundits gravitate to extremes, Friedman more than most.
Trump IS genuinely extreme in my opinion. Not only that, he is a chameleon of extremities, having held wildly fluctuating and mutually inconsistent political opinions on issues too numerous to mention in a short space. He tells his audience what they want to hear in order to make the sale. That's what salesman do, and Trump is a professional salesman. Politics is more than simple salesmanship, and leadership is much more. Trump, and not few others, are selling panic right now. Don't panic is always good advice.
Trump is not yet a disaster, he's just stirring up muck from the bottom of the American Political Pond, that's been around for many decades. John Birch to Tea Party to Trump. It's the theme of Old White Male Nativism pitched by that rare New Yorker that Old White Male Nativists can learn to love. The US political pond has been nasty all the way back to the Founders. Americans like to forget the extremes.
David,
You are, by all accounts, the biggest voice against campaign money.. You are on record as stating how evil lobbyists and special interests money is for an election..
Yet, you defend and support the candidate who is COMPLETELY and UTTERLY bought and paid for by lobbyists, Wall Street and special interests..
And you vehemently attack the candidate who is not beholden to a SINGLE lobbyist, a SINGLE special interest....
Now, given these FACTS, you can understand why I would be confused...
You can understand why I would think that the ONLY thing that appears to matter here is the '-X' after the candidates' name...
Michale
246
Trump is not yet a disaster, he's just stirring up muck from the bottom of the American Political Pond, that's been around for many decades. John Birch to Tea Party to Trump.
And, of course, there is absolutely NO MUCK on the Left side of the aisle, right?? :D
Michale
247
Don't panic is always good advice.
@ts,
as is always knowing where your towel is. and how just when you think life can’t possibly get any worse it suddenly does.
JL
You are, by all accounts, the biggest voice against campaign money.. You are on record as stating how evil lobbyists and special interests money is for an election.
I support Bernie, Michale, because he's the only candidate not accepting Super PAC money.
I would, however, support Hillary over any GOP candidate because they have no one better.
And yeah, it bugs me that she takes so much money. Big whup. So do all the Republican candidates. Not only that but no Republicans are speaking out against money in politics.
-David
Here's my fundraising page for Bernie, btw, if you'd like to donate.
I'm giving up soda and pledging $500 to his campaign over the course of this year.
https://secure.actblue.com/contribute/page/nosodaforbernie
-David
And yeah, it bugs me that she takes so much money.
But you'll still vote for her..
That says that winning is more important than anything else..
Isn't that what ya'all accuse Republicans of?? :D
Michale
248
"Your {Democrats} and your {Republicans} use the same methods to achieve the same goals."
-Yarnek, STAR TREK, The Savage Curtain
Yet.... Somehow... It's only the Republicans that are evil......
Democrats get a pass..
Why???
-D
Michale
249
Bashi [52]
Very well stated.
I mean...
Principles and ethics be damned!!!
Winning!!! That's all that matters!!
Once again... Remind me exactly how that is different than how ya'all portray Republicans???
Because, from where I sit, we are AWASH in the concept of THE ENDS JUSTIFIES THE MEANS
:D
Michale
250
Trump is not yet a disaster, he's just stirring up muck from the bottom of the American Political Pond, that's been around for many decades.
Well, TS, you be sure to let me know when he becomes an official disaster. I shudder to think what he might have to say or do in order to live up to that moniker in your view ...
Are you taking into account the impact on America that Trump is having in the eyes of those who live outside of your country?
Are you taking into account the impact on America that Trump is having in the eyes of those who live outside of your country..
They day America starts caring what other countries think of America is the day America ceases to be America...
Michale
251
That says that winning is more important than anything else.
It says their is no alternative.
If the money bothers you, help nominate Bernie. Or get a better alternative GOP candidate. Someone who doesn't believe in crazy bullshit like giving money to wealthy people helps everyone. Someone who doesn't believe that war is the answer to every problem.
You're not going to discourage me though.
-David
In a discussion specifically about Iraq and Syrian territory, as you would have noticed if you had bothered to read the paragraph to which that line was picked out of context from.
Even allowing for context, which you only seem to care about when it is your guy, Obama's top general said that Daesch was and is NOT contained..
I'll take the military man's word over a coward who thinks leading from behind is a viable strategy...
Michale
252
Michale,
Unlike David, my patience with your non-serious comments has officially run out.
I would be more than happy to have a serious discussion with you about the kinds of topics discussed at this site whenever you are ready to engage ...
Ya'all simply CANNOT admit that your guy is EVER wrong...
Michale
253
Bashi [52] - Nice. Agreed.
If the money bothers you,
We're not talking about me.... Unless you want to.. :D
I am not the poster child for the evil of money in campaigns.. You are.. And it's respectable, I will give you credit for that...
But it's somewhat disheartening to listen to you up on your soapbox and to AGREE with you, and then you turn around and support Hillary...
You see my point??
If money in campaigns is the end all get all evil thing you indicate that you believe it is, then it seems to me that supporting Hillary weakens your case...
Immeasurably...
Michale
254
America is not an island, Michale, and its leaders assume the mantle of leader of the free world.
When America becomes an island and succeeds in isolating itself from the rest of the world, then you may choose not to care what the rest of the world thinks.
I would be more than happy to have a serious discussion with you about the kinds of topics discussed at this site whenever you are ready to engage ...
The problem is, when you say "serious discussion" you mean, "agree with everything I say.." :D
Obama's plan is NOT working...
This is fact...
Ya'all can't admit that because ya'all can't admit that Obama is wrong...
And so we go round and round... :D
Michale
255
America is not an island, Michale, and its leaders assume the mantle of leader of the free world.
America is the only remaining Superpower...
We didn't get to be that way by kowtowing to every special interest that other countries want to impose...
Although, since 2009, America's status in the world has taken a nasty nose dive..
Thanx Obama.. Thanx Demcorats... :^/
Michale
256
Unlike David, my patience with your non-serious comments has officially run out.
Yeah, I know what you mean, Liz. We all know what Michale's gonna say.
Obama ...
fear ...
bad ...
And somehow both parties are equal though I don't see Democrats running Hitler as a candidate :).
I pop in every now and then to read CWs pieces and see what's going on with folks.
You might be interested in how a grassroots group here in Cincinnati recently defeated a Chamber of Commerce initiative. I wrote this earlier this weak because I needed to do something positive in the midst of all the negativity on the Interwebs. For $7,500 we defeated a $1 million initiative.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2015/12/08/1457787/-How-7-500-defeated-a-1-million-Cincinnati-loophole
Keep doing good things, Liz!
-David
The Secretary of Treasury [State] and the Attorney General will invalidate all visas issued to Iranian citizens for future entry into the United States, effective today. We will not reissue visas, nor will we issue new visas, except for compelling and proven humanitarian reasons or where the national interest of our own country requires. This directive will be interpreted very strictly.
-President Jimmy Carter
Like I said...
If Trump says it, it's the epitome of evil and Trump is Hitler..
If a Democrat does it... FDR, Carter..... It's perfectly acceptable.....
The facts are clear, people....
Michale
257
And somehow both parties are equal though I don't see Democrats running Hitler as a candidate :).
Yea???
See comment #78
:D
Michale
258
The simple fact that ya'all would stoop to a Godwin shows how far off the reservation ya'all are....
Michale
259
So, let's take stock...
A Democrat jailed innocent Americans simply because they were Japanese...
A Democrat banned Iranians and deported tens of thousands more Iranians..
Oh and let's not forget that it was Democrats who formed the KKK and gave us The Klan....
And yet, TRUMP is Hitler..
Gotcha... {{wink wink}} :D
Something about stones and glass houses comes to mind.. Or was it glass and stone houses?? Hmmmmmm
:D
Michale
260
On a lighter note..
http://linapps.s3.amazonaws.com/linapps/photomojo/wncn.com/photos/2015/12/g39790-sign-for-gun-shop-aimed-at-obama/672966-0f22c.jpg
Now THAT is funny!!! :D
Michale
261
There was an interesting article a while back (Washington Post) that compared the size of Trump's support to that of Bernie's. The numbers still hold true today.
The Democratic base is slightly larger than the Republican base, so even though The Donald has about 34% of the Republican support and Bernie has 31% of the Democratic support, they are basically statistically equal in total numbers of supporters.
I bring this up because, for all the attention being paid to The Donald, the one candidate that is really head and shoulders above everybody else is Hillary.
Merry Christmas Hillary.
I assume most politicians running for office don't really get time off to celebrate their holidays (e.g. The Donald is going to meet Bibi in Israel right after Christmas Day - more on this below), however if The Donald keep issuing more and more outrageous remarks, nobody will pay Hillary any attention (or anybody else) and she can have a real break. Good luck to her.
The Donald and Bibi:
Trump supported Bibi's re-election, and Trump is a bit of a quid-pro-quo type of guy, in case you hadn't noticed. So it will be very interesting to see if Trump pulls the same stunt with Bibi that he did the the black pastors last month and announces after the meeting that Bibi is behind him. This will be hugely embarrassing for both Bibi and Israel and will surely have to result in a denial. With a bit of luck I will get a late Christmas present as I watch two politicians that I think are dangerous clowns go at each other. Of course, Bibi could pull his invite, and give us the present even before Christmas.
David,
Keep doing good things, Liz!
You are the one who is doing good things and making a difference in your community.
I would like to be more like you - less commenting and more actual work to make things better.
So, my hat's off to you and wish you all the best in your good works!
And, please excuse my presumptuousness, if that's an actual word, but this Trump business has really got me down ...
And, please excuse my presumptuousness, if that's an actual word, but this Trump business has really got me down.
Sorry to hear that, Liz. Me too. I think people are right to be angry. It's just so sad that they're angry at all the wrong people.
All the media has to do is say, "Hey look ... that guy over there who looks different from you. He's trying to take your money" and people buy it.
When I get too down I try to do something positive. It's one of the reasons why I wrote that article. To help encourage the good (rather than focus on the Trumps of the world).
I have found all the commenting and writing has helped when it comes to building networks and helping get the word out. It's extremely important.
Send a few bucks to Bernie or put some good out into the world!
-David
p.s. Michale, you might enjoy Real Life Star Wars!
https://www.facebook.com/uniladmag/videos/1966210866735296/
Thanks, David ... you're one of the best! :)
Trump supported Bibi's re-election, and Trump is a bit of a quid-pro-quo type of guy, in case you hadn't noticed. So it will be very interesting to see if Trump pulls the same stunt with Bibi that he did the the black pastors last month and announces after the meeting that Bibi is behind him. This will be hugely embarrassing for both Bibi and Israel and will surely have to result in a denial. With a bit of luck I will get a late Christmas present as I watch two politicians that I think are dangerous clowns go at each other. Of course, Bibi could pull his invite, and give us the present even before Christmas.
OR.....
Or Bibi could resoundly support Trump, just to piss off Obama... :D
Now THAT's a worthy Xmas Present.. :D
Michale
262
I think people are right to be angry. It's just so sad that they're angry at all the wrong people.
They are angry at the people who have frak'ed up the country...
Just like ya'all were angry at Bush and Republicans when YA'ALL believed that THEY frak'ed up the country..
Now is no different than back then... The only difference is that it's YOUR people who is the target of the anger...
And so it goes and so it goes...
Michale
263
And, until ya'all can concede that there is legitimate cause for Americans to be angry, ya'all will simply wallow..
"Why is everybody always picking on me.."
-Charlie Brown
Michale
264
p.s. Michale, you might enjoy Real Life Star Wars!
https://www.facebook.com/uniladmag/videos/1966210866735296/
That's too funny!! :D
Thanx
Michale
267
So, Trump said that places in London and across Britian are NO-GO areas for Police. That police can't enter those areas due to islamic radicalization..
Of course, the politicians on BOTH sides of the pond howled indignantly and claimed this wasn't true..
And yet...
‘Trump is right!’ Police say parts of Britain ARE no-go areas due to ISIS radicalisation
Serving officers in terrorist hotspots including London and Birmingham said that forces are becoming increasingly nervy over the rising threat of Islamic State (ISIS) inspired attacks, with some telling staff not to wear their uniforms in their OWN patrol cars.
One officer in London said the firebrand presidential hopeful was “pointing out something plainly obvious” whilst another in Lancashire said the police have to ask local Muslim leaders for PERMISSION before sending patrols into their communities.
Their shocking testimonies are in stark contrast to the official responses from politicians and the Metropolitan Police, who have rounded on Mr Trump’s controversial claims.
http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/625545/Donald-Trump-Muslims-speech-British-police-ISIS-radicalisation-London
Turns out Trump was dead on ballz accurate...
You see, this is the appeal of Trump..
He hits out against the PC crap and upsets those who want the status quo and tells it like it is...
If you want to get mad, don't get mad at Trump... Get mad at the politicians who CREATED Trump, the candidate.....
But ya can't get mad at THEM.... Because they have a '-D' after their name...
Michale
268
When all the BS and the PC is burned away the bare facts remain..
Trump is the Anti-Establishment.. The Anti-Status Quo... The Anti-Big Money In Politics... The Anti-Politically Correct...
Those who oppose Trump represent the Establishment.. Represent the Status Quo, the Big Money In Politics, the Politically Correct...
That's what it all boils down to..
Michale
270
Like I said before..
You can vote for the candidate who is bought and paid for by Wall Street, Lobbyists and Special Interests..
Or you can vote for the candidate who can give those same Wall Streeters, Lobbyists and Special Interests the finger...
To me, the choice really seems clear..
But then again, for me, it's not about Party Loyalty..
It's about COUNTRY loyalty..
Michale
271
And yeah, it bugs me that she takes so much money. Big whup. So do all the Republican candidates.
Yea, but yer not VOTING for "all the Republican candidates"..
Not only that but no Republicans are speaking out against money in politics.
Ahhhh So, as long as Democrats SPEAK OUT against money in politics, that's all that is required.. They don't actually have to Walk the Walk.. They just have to Talk the Talk... :^/
So, to summarize..
When Republicans take money to buy elections, they are evil incarnate...
When Democrats take money to buy elections, it's "big whup"...
And you don't understand why I am confused???
Michale
272
“Choose the form of the Destructor,” says the demon in Ghostbusters. Bill Murray, et al., got the giant Stay Puft Marshmallow Man. Our political and media elites, on the other hand, got Donald Trump.
Everyone is aghast at Trump’s latest plan, to suspend all immigration by Muslims. But it’s no coincidence that Trump’s announcement came less than a day after a limp, toneless speech by President Barack Obama on terrorism, one that left Americans feeling much less safe.
After the September 11, 2001 attacks, then-president George W. Bush made clear that Muslims weren’t our enemy: Radical Islamists were. Because Bush took steps against those radical Islamists that made people feel safer, there was no significant anti-Muslim backlash, though all the bien-pensant types thought it certain that those rubes in flyover country would get violent.
Obama, on the other hand, responded to an attack by Islamic State-linked Muslims with a mixture of pablum and an effort at distraction by talking about gun bans for people on the no-fly list. (Even lefty publications like the LA Times and Slate thought that idea dumb). Before that attack took place, Obama was already polling terribly on terror: According to a CNN/ORC poll taken between 11/27 and 12/1, only 33% of Americans approved of Obama’s handling of ISIL; 64% disapproved. I doubt that Obama’s ratings will improve when the post-San Bernardino polls come in.
And Obama’s public statements have seemed weak and mired in PC, even as many Americans grow increasingly worried about Islamic terrorism. As Josh Kraushaar wrote in National Journal, “Democrats are at risk of politically marginalizing themselves on national security in the run-up to the 2016 presidential election, catering to a base that seems disconnected from the growing anxiety that the public feels over the threat from Islamic terrorism. ... The signs of a president in denial over the threat of terorism keep piling up.”
http://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2015/12/09/glenn-reynolds-liberals-have-chosen-donald-their-destructor/76996298/
Once again, ya'all got to ask yourselves, "WHY is Donald Trump so popular??" with Joe and Jane Sixpack
Until ya'all can ask yourselves that and answer HONESTLY, ya'all will always be playing catch-up defense...
Michale
273
I mean, seriously.. Take a step back and look at what ya'all are saying..
Ya'all are apoplectic about Trump and how he is violating the civil rights of foreign muslims..
Yet, you don't have ANY problem with Obama wanting to deny Americans their Constitutional rights..
You don't have ANY problem with AG Lynch (who should change her name because it invokes bad slavery memories.. At least, according to snowflakes in college) who wants to prosecute ANYONE who says something bad about muslims..
You don't have ANY problem with the afore mentioned college snowflakes who browbeat, intimidate and physically attack ANYONE who dares speak against them....
So, you can see why I really can't get all worked up about ya'all's hysteria over Trump when ya'all allow such gross violations of the civil rights of Americans ya'all don't politically agree with...
Michale
274
I think equating Trump with Hitler is a bit premature at this point. His Muslim travel ban is bad enough but until he talks about extermination or at least invading Poland, we should stick to Godwin...
Michale wrote:
"TrainWreck Care... A crappy economy... Americans being brutally murdered by terrorists.. More wars than ever...
By ANY litmus test you want to dream up, Obama is a failure...."
Oh really???? The following does not sound like a failure to me by any stretch of the imagination. Like you say, it is all about perspective:
1) Last Bush Year 7.2% Unemployment. Obama today 5.1%
2) Bush Cost of a gallon of gas $3.24. Obama $2.31
3) Bush 15% medically uninsured. Obama 9.2%
4) Bush 11 million barrels of oil imported. Obama 4.5 million.
5) Bush teen pregnancy rate 40.2/1000. Obama 26.5/1000.
6) Iran under Bush 19,000 centrifuges. Iran under Obama 6,000 centrifuges.
7) Last year of Bush GDP growth Minus 0.3%. Obama Plus 3.7% growth.
8)Bush Dow Jones 10,355. Obama Dow Jones 16,271.
... and that's just for starters ... :)
His Muslim travel ban is bad enough
It's no different than Carter's Iranian ban...
But, I completely agree.. Equating Trump with Hitler just pushes the debate into the eye-rolling phase..
And I can do THAT myself just fine, thank you very much.. :D
Michale
278
It's no different than Carter's Iranian ban...
Quite different, actually...[Snopes.com]
In other words, the claim is that Carter did it for different reasons that Trump wants to do it..
BFD....
Trump wants to ban a specific group of people..
Carter banned a specific group of people..
FDR imprisoned a different group of people..
"Oh, well, that's different"
Only to those who have an overabundance of Party Loyalty...
From those not enslaved by Party ideology....
If it quacks like a duck and walks like a duck...... :D
Michale
280
Why is context only important when it services the agenda of the Left Wingery?? :D
Michale
281
Terror rampage not enough to suspend ‘fiancee’ visa program
-President Obama
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2015/dec/10/wh-san-bernardino-not-enough-suspend-fiance-visas/
Good idea..
Leave the barn door open.... What could go wrong.. :^/
Got to have those fresh new Democrat voters!!!
No matter HOW many innocent Americans get killed!!!
Michale
282
Trump wants to ban a specific group of people...
that's 1.6 billion people - a quarter of the world's population. it's one thing to close off relations with a nation-state, another thing entirely to shut out an entire demographic based on religion. Heck, since 90% of murders are committed by men, why don't we just not let any men into the country, and suggest voluntary deportation for the rest? that's sure to reduce the crime rate.
JL
So, it's a numbers game..
Banning 1.6 Million.... BAD
Banning a few hundred thousand.... Not so BAD
Incarcerating a couple tens of thousand... OK
If anyone has a better plan for combating terrorism...
"I'm all ears."
-Ross Perot, 1992 Presidential Debates
Saying "Pretty Please" doesn't seem to be working.. :^/
Michale
287
Michale,
You'll find a pretty good plan for combating Islamist terrorism here ...
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/william-bradley/post-paris-politics-count_b_8626074.html
Read, when you have time, and then we'll discuss ...
Banning 1.6 Million.... BAD
Billion.. With a B...
My...er... bad.. :D
Michale
292
LIZ,
Only Hillary Clinton provided a comprehensive and coherent response.
I couldn't read anymore..
Anyone who would spew something like that is completely and utterly ignorant of Counter Terrorism...
Hillary Clinton's plan is NOTHING more than Obama's plan..
And Obama's plan is doing the same old failed things over and over hoping for a different result..
How many more San Bernardinos are we going to have to have before Obama realizes that his FIRST DUTY.... His VERY FIRST JOB... His NUMBER ONE PRIORITY... is to keep Americans safe???
He has failed and failed epically in that regard...
Michale
294
Anyone who would spew something like that is completely and utterly ignorant of Counter Terrorism...
And completely in the bag for the Democrat Party and is, therefore, not worth listening to as they are ONLY pushing a partisan agenda and don't really care how many innocents terrorism kills...
Michale
296
Wow. 111 comments? OK, here goes...
TheStig [5] -
Now there's an interesting question! Would we have a court battle over who gets to use the name Republican Party? In the midst of a presidential election? Man, things could get crazier than even I thought...
Heh.
Michale [19] -
What's interesting to me about this (your comment points it out, in a way) is that Trump voters may just be a large slice of the "don't usually bother to vote" crowd. Nobody really knows yet whether (1) they will actually show up to vote, and/or (2) they're going to be actually UNDERrepresented by the polls. Most polls try to weed out non-voters and concentrate on "likely voters". If, this time around, the pollsters throw away data for non-voters, and those voters show up and vote -- then Trump's support might actually be a lot higher than any poll puts it at. At this point, it's an unknown, but it'll be interesting to see how many new voters Trump pulls in.
[21] -
OK, I admit, I hadn't considered that one, but probably should. Jesse Ventura won in exactly this fashion, and surprised the heck out of everyone.
As for all your historical precedents, well, history's lesson in 2012 was that Obama couldn't possibly win, but he did. Just sayin'...
[67] -
They day America starts caring what other countries think of America is the day America ceases to be America...
Wow. That is eerily true whether you think it's a good thing or a bad thing, really.
akadjian [77] -
Wow! That's an inspiring story! Congratulations, democracy sometimes can actually work!
JohnM [99] -
Oh, well done! Nice job...
OK, that's it for answering these. Just had to commend everyone for goading Michale so well. Remember, those numbers at the end of his comments add up for us here at CW.com!
:-)
-CW
The wonks at 538dotcom put together a 5 ring Venn Diagram of the Republican Party that takes on added interest now that the field has narrowed to just strong contenders: Rubio, Trump and Cruz.
The diagram divides the Republican Party into five camps: Moderate:
Sorry, another accidental cat post. Let me start over
The wonks at 538dotcom put together a 5 ring Venn Diagram of the Republican Party that takes on added interest now that the field has narrowed to just strong contenders: Rubio, Trump and Cruz.
The diagram divides the Republican Party into five camps: Moderate, Establishment,
Last try here, the cat is locked out. CW, if you get a chance you might want to erase 113 and 114
The diagram divides the Republican Party into five camps: Moderate, Establishment, Christian Conservative, Libertarian and Tea Party. Each camp intersects the other 4.
https://espnfivethirtyeight.files.wordpress.com/2015/07/silver-datalab-gopcandidate-venn-7-29.png?w=610&h=613
When there were 15 candidates back in late July, there were 7 candidates that fit cleanly into one of the five camps, the other 8 were hybrids of two of more camps.
The current field of favorites completely excludes the moderate(no surprise there) and Libertarian camps. Rubio is pure establishment, Trump pure Tea Party. Cruz is hybrid Tea Party-Christian Conservative. Nobody is pulling close to 50% support in the polls, and nobody is pulling close to a 50% chance of winning the nomination in the Exchange Markets.
Given the current state of affairs (no pun intended or implied) I would have to say Cruz is in the best position to build a coalition and secure the nomination, by way of either the primaries or a brokered convention. Brokered convention is being mentioned a lot these days.
TheSitg -
Thanks, that was an interesting diagram. Dunno about Fiorina on the Moderate edge, but whatever...
Yeah, the WashPost ran a lead article today on how the GOP bigwigs are already planning how to steal the nomination from Trump if a brokered covention happens. Because that'll surely stop him!
heh.
-CW
They day America starts caring what other countries think of America is the day America ceases to be America...
Wow. That is eerily true whether you think it's a good thing or a bad thing, really.
Thank you..
I do come up with a gem now and again... :D
Michale
332