GOP Tickets Out Of New Hampshire
The Republican field is (finally!) now officially down to single digits. With the post-Iowa exodus of Mike Huckabee, Rand Paul, and Rick Santorum, only nine GOP candidates remain. Of course, this still includes more than one who will never be the nominee, but at least the winnowing has begun in earnest. The question on everyone's mind now is how many of them will be viable after New Hampshire votes. This election cycle, most pundits speak of the Republican race in terms of "lanes." There is an "outsider lane" and an "establishment lane," and so forth. I personally don't favor this metaphor, as I'm more inclined to use what might be called the traditional "Willy Wonka golden ticket" metaphor. In other words, there are a limited number of "tickets" out of New Hampshire, and anyone who doesn't hold one after the voting is over might as well just pack up their campaign.
So who will hold one of these tickets next Tuesday night? Right now, it's actually even tough to identify how many of these tickets will even exist. The people using lanes to describe the race have generally agreed that there will be only three lanes heading into South Carolina, and that Donald Trump and Ted Cruz already occupy two of them. By this logic, there are four candidates fighting hard for the establishment lane, and only one will emerge.
I think this is too limiting. I'll explain why in a moment, but let's start off by eliminating those with zero chance of viability after New Hampshire. Jim Gilmore, of course, is running nothing more than a vanity campaign. He got 12 votes in Iowa. Not 12 percent, not 12 delegates, but 12 actual votes. As Stephen Colbert pointed out last night, there are more people in Iowa named Jim Gilmore than the candidate got to vote for him. Gilmore isn't even running what you'd call a visible campaign, so he'll likely stay in until the nominee is announced, later in the spring. What the heck -- why not?
Ben Carson is also on the way out. His campaign is imploding around him and he's the only one who doesn't seem to realize he's toast. Perhaps the whole kerfluffle over what the Ted Cruz people did on Iowa's caucus night has made him stay in the race for another week or so (it'd be pretty embarrassing to complain that someone erroneously said you were dropping out, right before you actually dropped out), but one way or another he's got zero chance of winning the nomination. He may stay in to see how well he does in South Carolina (a state with plenty of evangelical voters), but sooner or later he's going to head back to the inspirational speaker/book tour circuit.
Carly Fiorina is also almost done. Her viciousness (especially towards Hillary Clinton) has been fun for Republicans to watch during debates, but nobody's going to vote for such a one-trick pony in the end. Now that she's not even going to appear on the next debate stage, she might as well head back to whatever cushy hole she emerged from to run yet another losing political campaign. After losing her race for a Senate seat and losing her presidential bid, maybe she'll run for Empress next? Was that too snarky? I refuse to contemplate that "too snarky" could ever apply to the likes of Carly, personally.
This leaves us with six possibilities. As previously stated, Donald Trump and Ted Cruz are heading forwards no matter what happens in New Hampshire. Right now the polling shows that they could swap their first and second place finishes from Iowa when the New Hampshire votes are counted. Then again, maybe not. New Hampshire has a history of defying polling expectations, so Trump could either lose a second contest or Cruz might not even make it into the top three. But it won't matter, as both candidates have plenty of money and plenty of momentum, so New Hampshire's not going to stop either one of them. Count on these two to hold golden tickets heading out of the Granite State, no matter what.
This is where things get truly interesting. There are four men fighting very hard for either second or third place (depending on how well Trump and Cruz do). Two of them desperately need a good finish in New Hampshire to continue their campaigns: John Kasich and Chris Christie. Both have bet their entire campaigns on the state (they both essentially ignored Iowa, knowing how slim the chances were for victory there). If either (or both) of them don't place in the top three in New Hampshire, their campaigns are over, for all practical purposes.
This leaves Marco Rubio and Jeb Bush. Although this may come as a surprise, I'm going to award Bush a ticket out of New Hampshire almost without regard to how he does in the voting. Bush is sitting on an absolute mountain of cash, so he's got the money to continue well into March, even without a strong showing in the voting. Sure, the pressure from Republican stalwarts will become intense for Jeb to get out of the race if he doesn't get either second or third place in New Hampshire, but I'd be willing to bet he's going to continue at least until Super Tuesday. He'll be hoping that Rubio somehow stumbles and that the establishment will give him a second look as their best chance to beat Trump and Cruz. Because Bush has so much money at his disposal, I think he soldiers on no matter how bad things get in New Hampshire.
Rubio will also continue no matter what the New Hampshire results are. He won Iowa after all, right? Well, no, he didn't -- he only came in third -- but he's certainly acting like he won. His narrative is now that he's the best Republican to "unify the party" and slay the Trump and Cruz dragons, and he's going to stick to that at least until Super Tuesday.
By my calculations, this means there will be at least four tickets out of New Hampshire -- and maybe even more. Trump, Cruz, Rubio, and Bush are all likely to continue no matter what the New Hampshire voters have to say next week. My real question is whether there will be a fifth or even sixth ticket out of New Hampshire.
This requires gaming out the results, which is currently nothing more than a crap shoot (so to speak). Trump will likely place in the top three, even if New Hampshire voters defy the polls (which currently show him with an almost insurmountable lead). Other than that, it's very hard to make predictions. Rubio, Cruz, Kasich, and Bush all fall in a range from about 10 percent to roughly 15 percent. As of this moment, it looks like Rubio is on top of this group, but in the past few weeks Kasich and Cruz have also led, so which way the voters will ultimately decide is up in the air. Bush is lagging at the back of this group, but he's doing better than Christie, who used to be in the midst of the pack but has now dropped down to only around five percent support.
Say for the sake of argument Trump wins New Hampshire. If all four contenders (Rubio, Cruz, Kasich, Bush) split the vote pretty evenly, the media will likely only pay attention to the overall second and third place finishers (no matter what the margins between the places turn out to be). So the order they appear in could be critical. If, for instance, the order is: Trump, Kasich, Cruz, Rubio, Bush, then Christie may be the only one to not earn a ticket onwards. If, however, the order is something like: Trump, Rubio, Cruz, Kasich, Bush, then both Christie and Kasich might be left behind. Kasich really has to get at least third place to have any consideration at all. If, defying all the polls, the order turns out to be: Trump, Kasich, Christie, Bush, Rubio, Cruz, then nobody will drop out and we'll have a full six tickets out of New Hampshire.
Kasich probably won't get one of those tickets to ride, unless he defeats Rubio in New Hampshire. No matter where Trump and Cruz place, if Kasich can't even beat Rubio then he's done (even if he comes in third overall). The same goes for Christie as well. Rubio is now the non-Trump, non-Cruz candidate to beat, and if Christie or Kasich can't manage to do so then they're done.
The safest bet would likely be that Trump, Cruz, Rubio, and Bush (bringing up the rear) will all continue campaigning vigorously in South Carolina and beyond, through at least Super Tuesday. Christie and Kasich were always longshots at best, and their entire campaigns have been focused almost solely on winning in New Hampshire. They likely won't have the campaign funds (or the staff or organization) to continue much further. Also, the party's bigwigs will be leaning on them very hard to get out of the race and clear the way for someone else to take on Trump and Cruz. Bush and Rubio have money, and Rubio's currently got momentum. Unless Rubio places fourth or fifth in New Hampshire, he'll be seen as the best third option by most of the Republican establishment. Whether Bush spends all his money before he gets out of the race or not, he'll likely stick around until Super Tuesday no matter what the moneymen are telling him.
Barring any upsets or surprise victories by Kasich or Christie, the campaigns of Trump, Cruz, Rubio, and Bush will likely continue. Some of those tickets will be more golden than others, but even if the race tightens further next week, my guess is that it won't shrink down to three candidates but rather these four.
-- Chris Weigant
Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant
Given that 50% of NH voters make up their minds in the last week, any scenario is probably valid.
How do you go on after "Please clap"?
Rubio must be thrilled with Frothy's endorsement.
What is Rubio's greatest accomplishment?
I think Rove will be right this time.
Romney's got it in the bag.
What is Rubio's greatest accomplishment?
What was Obama's??
For that matter, what is Hillary's??
Michale
Let's ask Santorum!
That was a little joke, Michale.
Michale,
What was Obama's?? For that matter, what is Hillary's??
So, you don't know, either, eh? Heh.
Lighten up, while you still can ...!
Don't even try to understand ...
Let's ask Santorum!
Who?? :D
So, you don't know, either, eh? Heh.
heh :D
Lighten up, while you still can
Don't even try to understand..</I
Just find a place to make your stand...
... and take it easy....
:D
Michale
We do know one of Hillary's accomplishments..
Washington (AFP) - Islamic State fighters have streamed into Libya in recent months, a US official said Thursday, heightening fears the extremists are gaining ground and influence in the north African country.
About 5,000 IS jihadists are now in Libya, the defense official said, approximately double earlier estimates, while the number of IS extremists in Iraq and Syria has dropped.
The updated tallies come as the administration of President Barack Obama faces growing calls for the US military to step up action against the IS group in Libya, where the jihadists have already seized the city of Sirte and an adjoining length of Mediterranean coastline.
http://news.yahoo.com/us-weighs-options-presence-soars-libya-021757089.html
Hillary gave Libya to the Daesch...
As for Hillary's "Progressive" credentials??
Here is all ya'all need to remember.. Hillary had to "evolve" into many MANY of the ideas that progressives hold dear...
In other words, Hillary was lock step with Republicans on those issues...
Bernie has ALWAYS walked the walk...
How any true progressive can even THINK of voting for Hillary over Bernie is beyond me...
Michale
But, getting back to the GOP side of the house, since that's the topic de'jour.. :D ... I have to admit that I am torn...
I love the way Trump get's the Left Wingery's knickers all in a bunch... :D And I still maintain that, despite any lack of details or substance, Trump could be an effective POTUS.. There is no doubt that Trump is a successful businessman.. Can that translate into an effective POTUS?? Who knows...
It's readily obvious to any political agnostic that he can't do worse than Obama has done..
Having said all of the afore, I am still kinda leaning towards Rubio.. Again, the knicker-bunching aspect is a plus as well.. :D
An old, tired, worn-out white person against a young, energetic, full-of-energy (in the dictionary under 'redundant' it says 'see redundant' :D ) hispanic guy...
Yep, whichever way it goes, I think the GOP has got this one sewn up... :D
Michale
How any true progressive can even THINK of voting for Hillary over Bernie is beyond me...
Hell, even CHELSEA is saying "President Sanders"... :D
https://youtu.be/IH7Kp1ZGCMY
heh
Michale
Blue Eating Blue..
Democratic establishment starts to gang up on Sanders
http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/268325-democratic-establishment-starts-to-gang-up-on-sanders
I thought the Democrat Party was above this sort of thing..
As with Trump, the one sure way to boost Sanders' numbers is for the establishment to start attacking him...
Pass the popcorn!! :D
Michale
Ok, let me give this a try. :-)
"What is Rubio's greatest accomplishment?"
Changing his family's biography to make it seem like they fled Cuba under Castro when they actually didn't, and had left before Castro came to power.
"What was Obama's?? For that matter, what is Hillary's??"
Hillary's would be inspiring Hollywood writers to get both "The Good Wife" and "Madame Secretary" on the air.
Obama's would be : Getting the Affordable Care Act thru Congress and signed into law, Finding and Killing Osama Bin Laden when George Bush couldn't, Restoring Diplomatic Relations with Cuba like Nixon did with China, Getting the economy to a point, despite all the obstruction from a Republican Congress, where it is better than what Romney said he would achieve if he had been elected President, being President during and supporting the decision of The Supreme Court regarding Marriage Equality, and orchestrating a Machiavellian maneuver with Congress regarding the Iran Nuclear Deal.
And all those are only what I can think of just off the top of me head. :-)
John M,
The problem is, many republicans and conservatives don't consider most of those things by Obama to be "accomplishments", or at least not positive ones, and the ones that are (like finding/killing Bin Laden), they'll say he doesn't deserve credit for because he didn't do them personally.
Hillary's would be inspiring Hollywood writers to get both "The Good Wife" and "Madame Secretary" on the air.
Of course, omitting all the illegal crap that Hillary has done.. And let's not forget how Hillary publicly attacked and vilified those who were sexual assault victims of her husband..
And you complain about RUBIO re-writing history?? :D
Obama's would be : Getting the Affordable Care Act thru Congress and signed into law, Finding and Killing Osama Bin Laden when George Bush couldn't, Restoring Diplomatic Relations with Cuba like Nixon did with China, Getting the economy to a point, despite all the obstruction from a Republican Congress, where it is better than what Romney said he would achieve if he had been elected President, being President during and supporting the decision of The Supreme Court regarding Marriage Equality, and orchestrating a Machiavellian maneuver with Congress regarding the Iran Nuclear Deal.
With the exception of TrainWreckCare, every "accomplishment" of Obama's was done when Obama acted as an emperor, not as a President..
And each and every one of those "accomplishments" will be rescinded and nullified when the GOP POTUS is sworn in..
Accomplishments are things that stand the test of time..
Obama's will not..
It's THAT simple...
Also, keep in mind that EVERY one of Obama's "accomplishments" are done AGAINST the will of the American people..
And you want to call them ACCOMPLISHMENTS??
In what galaxy??? :D
Michale
or at least not positive ones, and the ones that are (like finding/killing Bin Laden), they'll say he doesn't deserve credit for because he didn't do them personally.
Bush deserves more credit for killing Bin Laden than Obama does..
Obama was a blatant frakin' hypocrite for castigating the use of torture to acquire intel, then turning around a taking a victory lap from USING that intel...
Frakin' two faced hypocrite...
Michale
But let's look at some of Obama's other "accomplishments"...
Tens of thousands of innocent people killed from Obama's drone strikes..
Increases the US Debt by tens of trillions of dollars..
Increases domestic surveillance to unheard of heights...
Funny how the Left Wingery doesn't tout THOSE "accomplishments", eh???
I wonder why...
No, I don't wonder why...
It's because Obama has that '-D' after his name that no one wants to take Obama task over this as they did Bush...
PARTY UBER ALLES
Michale
But let's look at some of Obama's other "accomplishments"...
Tens of thousands of innocent people killed from Obama's drone strikes..
Increases the US Debt by tens of trillions of dollars..
Increases domestic surveillance to unheard of heights...
Yea.. That's what I thought... :^D
Michale
I see a lot of similarities between Kasich and Christie: astute politicians, from states with a substantial number of electoral votes, skilled at managing their news, anger management problems (see news management), know where the bodies are buried, and last but not least, long shots for the nomination. Both have a lot 'splainin' to do to the Republican Base 'bout some distinctly moderate positions they have pushed through. I think Kasich is the tactically better choice, Ohio is a swing-able state, NJ is probably not - but Christie just might be able get himself arrested there, or across the river.
If Christie somehow got a Golden Ticket, he probably gulped it down with the Wonka Bar and most of the wrapper using an Augustus Gloop approved inertial feeding technique. If you want that ticket, I'd look for it in a NJ sewage plant, at the bottom of settling tank.
JEB._ certainly has a Golden Ticket by virtue of a lot other people's money and his dad's Establishment connections. As the proprietor of this fine blog says, he can't be counted out just yet.
Trump, Cruz, Rubio, I think Trump will under perform his poll numbers. Bush soldiers on to Super 2Zday regardless.
Both NH and Iowa are PR events with dubious predictive value and few delegates at stake. For Republicans, it's just 53 delegates out of 2472.
I recommend The Green Papers Presidential Primaries 2016 site for tons arcane and possibly important facts about these mysterious quadrennial rituals.
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/R-HS.phtml
You can navigate from the above link.
TheStig -
No time to comment on the other comments here (getting FTP ready to go...), but I have to say I'd never seen the amusing shorthand "Super 2Zday" before. Heh -- good one!
:-)
-CW
It's funny how the Left Wingery is coming out of the woodwork claiming that Iowa and New Hampshire don't matter..
Of course, they WOULD matter if Hillary had prevailed and WILL prevail..
They only "don't matter" when Bernie wins them.. :D
Funny, iddn't it.. :D
Michale