My Picks For Nevada (R) And South Carolina (D)
Welcome back once again to our "pick the primary winners" series! I'm going to post this fairly early in the day (for me), to be sure it gets posted before the Nevada Republican caucus results start appearing. There's only one contest happening today, but due to the stable nature of the other outstanding "first four" primary, we're also going to go ahead and roll the dice for this Saturday's South Carolina Democratic primary race as well.
But before we get to all of that, it's time to update our overall record for the 2016 primary season. Before last Saturday's voting, I had a perfect 50/50 record on both sides of the aisle. I had chosen one out of two of the Democratic outcomes, and three out of six on the Republican side. Last weekend, my Democratic record got worse and my Republican record improved considerably. Here are my new totals:
Total correct 2016 Democratic picks: 1 for 3 -- 33%
Total correct 2016 Republican picks: 6 for 9 -- 67%
Total overall correct picks: 7 for 12 -- 58%.
Obviously, the last time I wrote one of these columns, I was overly optimistic for the "Feel the Bern" crowd, who in the end didn't turn out in sufficient numbers to put Bernie Sanders over the top in Nevada. Hillary may now be all but unstoppable, but that's a subject for another column.
On the Republican side, I have to be a little proud of predicting all three top spots correctly. Oh, sure, picking Donald Trump as winner was pretty easy, but second and third were no more than a tossup -- between up to four candidates, really (Jeb Bush or John Kasich could have surprised everyone, according to some very late polling). I must admit, this led to some tense election-night return-watching, but in the end Marco Rubio did manage to edge out Ted Cruz for second place, which gave me a 3-for-3 night for my Republican picks.
Overall, this puts me above the level of flipping a coin, which I can hopefully at least maintain from this point on in. But that's enough of the old news, let's get on to predicting tonight's Republican news and Saturday night's Democratic news. We're going to take these in reverse chronological order, because South Carolina is such an easy call.
South Carolina (Democrats)
This one is so obvious, I could do it within a single tweet: "Hillary's going to win." That's not even close to 140 characters, so maybe I could add: "And win big!"
Of course, everyone's going to be watching the margins very closely, but no matter how much she wins by, Saturday is going to be a very good night for Hillary Clinton. She's even broadcasting her confidence in the state by moving on to campaign in other states (she flew from Nevada to Texas, tellingly, after the last contest).
The storyline that Bernie Sanders can't convince African-Americans to vote for him is going to dominate, of course. This is more nuanced than some in the media have noticed, as Bernie is making inroads into picking up younger African-American voters, but (not unlike his white voter support) he is struggling to convince the older crowd. Hillary will finally get to brag about her "firewall" of minority voter support, something she was denied in the close finish in Nevada.
Hillary's win in South Carolina will also finally balance Bernie's big blowout in New Hampshire, as well. Bernie has now won one state by an overwhelming margin, and lost two very close contests. But Clinton will add to her two thin victories with an overwhelming win of her own Saturday night, blunting Bernie's momentum in a big way.
The polls show Hillary up by almost 30 points, but I'm going to go with a more conservative call that she beats Bernie in South Carolina by at least the 22 points he beat her by in New Hampshire. At this point, that seems like a pretty safe bet.
Nevada (Republicans)
OK, this one seems like a repeat of South Carolina for Republicans, because the only real question is who will claim second place. Of course, the usual Nevada caveats apply. Polling is almost non-existent here, and often incredibly inaccurate. Major upsets have happened, and could happen tonight. Turnout is often incredibly tiny, meaning one motivated group of supporters can throw the whole thing to a surprise candidate.
Having said all of that, I still think Donald Trump's going to chalk up another big win here. Nobody's even going to get close to him -- he'll likely win with a double-digit margin, in fact, just like he did in South Carolina. It's not as far-fetched as you might think, because casino owners are actually pretty popular among Nevada Republicans.
Calling second is again more of a gut feeling than anything else. At least, this time, it could be a coin toss, because only Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz even have a plausible chance at second place. Jeb Bush dropped out and neither John Kasich nor Ben Carson is going to get even close to third place.
The polling, scant though it may be, shows that Cruz may have a slight edge over Rubio. However, I'm going to ignore the absolute values in the polls (as I did in South Carolina) and pay more attention to the trends. Rubio seems to be on the ascent, and Cruz seems to be faltering. So I'm going to guess that Rubio outperforms while Cruz underperforms.
Often ignored by the media, there's a large contingency of Mormon voters in the Republican ranks (Nevada is, after all, right next to Utah). Mormons aren't usually all that comfortable with an evangelical candidate, and Mormons are usually better at turnout than other demographics in the state. I think this could give Rubio an edge.
Rubio's real edge right now is the massive migration of Republican party establishment types towards his campaign (from the smoking wreckage of the Jeb! campaign, of course), which has resulted in more big donors for Rubio and more major endorsements from nationally-known Republicans. I really don't think this will influence Nevada voters all that much, mostly because it has only been three days since the shakeup in South Carolina -- I think the Rubio momentum will play a bigger role in Super Tuesday. But even so, it's pretty obvious that the establishment Republicans are now circling the wagons in a big way (to use an appropriate Western metaphor) around Rubio.
Cruz, on the other hand, seems to be floundering. He just fired his communications guy, for yet another dirty trick (this time against Marco Rubio and his love of the Bible). That's not good. No matter how responsible Cruz is for the fiasco, it adds to the perception that he's running a pretty dirty campaign. Trump, of course, is hitting this theme with a sledgehammer, leaving Cruz on the defensive once again. Voters are taking away the image that Cruz will say or do anything to win, which is not exactly a positive impression. Especially when your big campaign logo is "TRUSTED" -- which will soon be nothing more than a joke for late-night comics to exploit.
Ted Cruz had a master campaign plan, which was to outdo everyone else in the ground game. He patiently built networks of support using all the technology available as well as plenty of volunteers on the ground. This worked wonders for him in Iowa, where he actually beat Trump for the win. It faltered in New Hampshire and South Carolina, however, and I think it's going to falter in Nevada as well.
As was true in South Carolina, we may all have to wait for a long time tonight to see the final results, since the difference between second and third places could come down to a tiny fraction of the votes. But in the end, I think the momentum will give Rubio another second-place "victory" over Cruz.
So those are my picks, both for tonight and for this Saturday. Hillary Clinton wins easily, and wins big in South Carolina. Tonight in Nevada, it'll be: (1) Trump, (2) Rubio, and (3) Cruz. Those are my picks -- if you disagree, let everyone know in the comments, as usual.
-- Chris Weigant
Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant
This one is so obvious, I could do it within a single tweet: "Hillary's going to win." That's not even close to 140 characters, so maybe I could add: "And win big!"
As much as it pains me to say, this is going to be a coffin-nailer for da Bern... :(
As for 2nd in Nevada?? Rubio doesn't deserve to win for the crap he pulled with ICE...
"Dick move, Banner!!!"
-Tony Stark, AVENGERS-AGE OF ULTRON
But, Cruz is getting hammered so I have to agree that Rubio is likely going to take 2nd...
Not that it matters much.. Trump is going to be the nominee...
Michale
The Donald is the only candidate who's offering a workable solution to the Ziki fly pinhead pandemic, OK? I heard that he's going to sterilize and deport all the Puerto Ricans until we figure out what's going on. He's going to make great deals with the hospitals on the island because we have to take care of people, but Trump won't let the good ones back into the country until they learn how to speak American.
First of all my picks for Nevada: 1. Trump 2. Cruz 3. Rubio.
Just been looking at the running commentary for the NV GOP caucus - it's chaotic by all reports! Here are a selection of tweets:
No-one seems to be expecting results tonight.
Mopshell [3] -
Nice formatting job!
:-)
-CW
Looks like I have a good shot at running the tables on the GOP side tonight...
-CW
It also looks like NV will put to rest all the "Trump has a built-in ceiling" nonsense.
He's at 45% at the moment...
-CW
It also looks like NV will put to rest all the "Trump has a built-in ceiling" nonsense.
Who would have thunked it??
Oh.. wait.. :D
Michale
Just been looking at the running commentary for the NV GOP caucus - it's chaotic by all reports! Here are a selection of tweets:
About the same for the Dem Iowa Caucus... :D
Have to re-iterate CW's comment.
Nice formatting.. :D
Michale
The NY Times are reporting the following results:
Trump — 45.9% (12 delegates)
Rubio — 23.5% (5 delegates)
Cruz — 21.4% (5 delegates)
Carson — 4.8%
Kasich — 3.6%
That's 3/3 for you, CW! Well done! That takes your GOP percentage up to 75%!
Just heard news about the storm hitting the Gulf states. It's set to move up the coast apparently - stay safe Michale and everyone else in its pathway. Thinking of you all.
Thanx Mopshell,
We're a bit further south than the main track.. Just a lot of lightning and some wind... Run o the mill stuff...
But thanx.. :D
Michale
Trump picks up 12 delegates, a bit more than half the total achieved with just a bit less than half the vote.
The Betfair market responds strongly this morning!!! Trump pulls strongly ahead of Rubio in both probability of winning the nomination (70% vs 30%) and probability of winning the presidency (23% vs 13%). This is probably the biggest overnight shift I've seen so far this cycle.
I would add that the above seems a bit unwarranted to me, given that the overall predictive power of a small, atypical contest like Nevada seems nil-ish. I suspect a lot of small fish just fed the mixed portfolios of the big fish pros. That said, never underestimate the power of psychology in electoral contests given low information news and low information voters.
On to Super2Zday!
M - 11
Yeah, it's just the effects of mankind's inability to affect the climate that you need to worry about. :)
Mean elevation of Florida 6', storm surge of a typical hurricane?
http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-02-24/in-south-carolina-clinton-looks-to-run-up-the-score-on-sanders
Hillary doesn't want to just beat Sanders.
She wants to humiliate him... decimate him... destroy him...
"The sport ends... The massacre begins."
-Romulan Grand Primus T'Ceal, STAR TREK-The Final Frontier
Michale
Mopshell wrote:
"Just heard news about the storm hitting the Gulf states. It's set to move up the coast apparently - stay safe Michale and everyone else in its pathway. Thinking of you all."
Thanks also Mopshell. The storm came directly through here, late last night/early this morning. They closed the schools for today because of the concerns regarding getting the kids off to school during the storm. There was a lot of house shaking thunder and lighting, but I have not heard of any damage in this area yet.
Bernie... And the Democrat Party incidentally... better pray that Hillary is indicted during the Primary and not during the General...
Michale
Yeah, it's just the effects of mankind's inability to affect the climate that you need to worry about. :)
"I tend not to worry about things that can't be changed.."
Damned if I can remember where the quote came from..
But there IS a Vulcan philosophy that deals with just this thing..
Kaiidth
Loosely translated, it means MASTERY OF THE UNAVOIDABLE..
Michale
CW [6]
"It also looks like NV will put to rest all the "Trump has a built-in ceiling" nonsense.
He's at 45% at the moment..."
I actually do think he has a built in ceiling, even now. I just think it's closer to 60% of the republican primary voters, not 30-40% like many pundits have been predicting. It bodes well for Trump when it comes to the nomination, but not so much in the general. Hillary Clinton (assuming she stays on her current trajectory) may have her own ceiling, but I don't think Trump's going to pick up many people who will balk at voting for a Democrat because they don't trust her. If anything, we could see a lower base turnout for both sides in the general election due to a sizable number of the people in the party not liking their own nominee. I would suspect that independents would be likely to flock towards Clinton though, as Trump would scare the hell out of them, making Clinton's (lack of) trustworthiness a very small concern by comparison.
Just a storm update for this area, i.e. North Florida and South Georgia... Some widely scattered trees down and power outages, but only about 5% of customers are affected. Nothing like the multiple tornadoes they had over by Pensacola that did quite a bit of damage and actually trapped some people in a collapsed building.
I would suspect that independents would be likely to flock towards Clinton though, as Trump would scare the hell out of them, making Clinton's (lack of) trustworthiness a very small concern by comparison.
Do you have any facts to back this up??
Because Trump speaks TO Independents.. The vast majority of Independents and NPAs are sick and tired of the Establishment and Business-As-Usual/Status Quo politicians, which Hillary Clinton epitomizes..
PLUS there is the positively HATE factor that Independents and NPAs have towards Hillary Clinton..
Trump will totally trounce Hillary with Independents...
This is fact...
Michale
ust a storm update for this area, i.e. North Florida and South Georgia... Some widely scattered trees down and power outages, but only about 5% of customers are affected. Nothing like the multiple tornadoes they had over by Pensacola that did quite a bit of damage and actually trapped some people in a collapsed building.
I would give my right arm for a good tornado in our area...
We have been thru MANY disasters.. Blizzards... Earthquakes... Floods... Our daughter's bedroom...
Have yet to experience a tornado....
Having said that, we're good here.. We always get some good storms, lots of lightning and wind... A great show...
Michale
Case in point..
Independents like Hillary Clinton less than in 2008
https://img.washingtonpost.com/wp-apps/imrs.php?src=https://img.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/files/2016/01/Clinton_2016_Qpac.jpg&w=480
Michale
John M
I am very pleased and relieved that you came through the storm okay - scary times when the house is shaking!
Michale
I'm glad the storm missed you, even though you'd like to experience a tornado. :-)
:D
Michale
"I tend not to worry about things that can't be changed.."
Damned if I can remember where the quote came from..
AH HA!!!!!
" I try not to let things I can't change bother me."
-Ronon Dex, STARGATE ATLANTIS, The Tao Of Rodney
:D
Michale