My Super Tuesday Picks
Tomorrow's the big night, whether you prefer to call it Super Tuesday or the "SEC Tuesday" (because of all the Southern states). So rather than scramble to get this out before the polls close tomorrow night, I'm posting all my primary picks today.
Before I begin, let's take a look at how my record stands, so far. I did pretty well last week, picking all four candidates correctly (the top three Republicans, and the Democratic winner). Here are my updated stats:
Total correct 2016 Democratic picks: 2 for 4 -- 50%
Total correct 2016 Republican picks: 9 for 12 -- 75%
Total overall correct picks: 11 for 16 -- 69%.
I'm obviously doing better with the Republican races, but maybe I'll be able to get my numbers up after tomorrow night.
One change in the game needs mentioning. Because there are so many races to call, and because the further we go the less any secondary positions mean, starting today I'll only be calling the Republican winners instead of the top three finishers in each state.
We've got a lot of races to call, as Republicans vote in 11 contests and Democrats vote in 12. You may hear different state totals, because there is what appears to be a weeklong "Democrats Abroad" vote beginning tomorrow, and also because there are some Republicans voting in "non-binding" contests as well -- all of which I'm going to ignore, for now. In alphabetic order, here are the states with primaries and caucuses which will actually count towards delegates tomorrow night.
Alabama
The polling here is overwhelming on both sides of the aisle. Hillary Clinton will pick up an easy win here, and Donald Trump will coast to victory as well.
Alaska (Republicans)
Alaska is one of those states where polling barely exists, and what there is can't be trusted much. The last poll taken was in mid-January, and showed Trump beating Ted Cruz by four points (28-24). But it's really anyone's guess who will win. I'm going to say that the Sarah Palin endorsement carries the day, and Trump carries the Frontier State. I'm basing that on gut feeling, though, so I could very well turn out to be wrong.
American Samoa (Democrats)
This one is complete and utter guesswork. No polls, no media attention, so you've got to just flip a coin on this one. I'm going to say Hillary Clinton wins, for no other reason than name recognition. But it's just a stab in the dark, really.
Arkansas
Arkansas is another state that doesn't draw a lot of interest from pollsters. The last polls were taken at the beginning of the month, and so can't be seen as all that reliable. On the Democratic side, though, Arkansas is one of at least three states that Hillary Clinton can claim "home state" status in, so it'll be no surprise to see her easily win here.
The last Republican poll put Ted Cruz up by four points over both Trump and Marco Rubio, but that was almost a month ago. Cruz desperately needs to win at least one state other than his home state, and it looks like he might have his best chance here. But I'm going to go with my gut and say Trump wins Arkansas with Cruz close behind. I have no real reason to base this prediction on, however.
Colorado (Democrats)
Colorado is another state with not much polling at all. Nevertheless, what scant polling there is seems to show a trend towards Bernie Sanders in the past few weeks. This should be a pretty friendly state to Sanders, and I'm going to bet that the college students turn out to vote in a big way and give Sanders the edge he needs to beat Hillary.
Georgia
Another easy call, due to overwhelming polling leads. Georgia goes for both Trump and Clinton, by wide margins.
Massachusetts
The Republican side is pretty easy to call in Massachusetts, as Donald Trump seems poised to win yuge here. However, on the Democratic side there's a very tight race. Massachusetts neighbors Vermont, of course, but Bernie doesn't have the polling advantage right now. All the polls are very close -- within the margin of error -- but what they seem to indicate is a late-breaking trend towards Clinton. My guess is that this might be the last race called tomorrow night because it will be so close, but that in the end Clinton will edge out Sanders.
Minnesota
Minnesota is another state that appears to be allergic to polling. The last polls were conducted in January, so it's impossible to see what trends may have developed since then. On the Republican side, the last poll showed Rubio leading with 23 percent, Cruz in second with 21, and Trump with 18. But, again, that was five weeks ago. I really have doubts that Rubio is going to win a single state tomorrow night, so I'm just going to go ahead and call Minnesota for Trump, instead. This is just a wild guess, of course, since he was polling third the last time data appeared. But I'm betting that his nationwide polling rise helped him enough in Minnesota to put him over the top.
On the Democratic side, Clinton had a big lead five weeks ago, but Bernie has been campaigning to win here. Somehow, though, I don't think he had enough time to close the gap. I think Clinton will win here, but I have no idea what the margin will be. It could be big, or the race could be very close.
Oklahoma
Oklahoma is going to be the hardest loss of the night for Ted Cruz. He's from the state next door, and the demographics of Oklahoma were supposed to be very similar to those in Texas. Unfortunately for him, though, Donald Trump is doing very well in the Sooner State. Trump will pick up an easy win here tomorrow.
There may be an upset on the Democratic side, though. The polling here (what there is of it) is just as close as Massachusetts. But this time the late-breaking trend seems to be in Bernie's favor. Due to this fact, I'm going to go ahead and say Oklahoma will feel the Bern tomorrow night. Sanders wins, but by a very small margin.
Tennessee
Another easy-to-call Southern state. Trump wins big here, and so does Clinton.
Texas
Hillary Clinton will also win big in Texas, but the Republican race is going to be the one to watch. Donald Trump would truly love to steal Texas away from Ted Cruz, and Marco Rubio would cheer Trump on if he managed it (because it'll make Rubio's argument that Cruz can't win a lot more potent). But even though Trump has been doing better in the polls, he still hasn't completely closed the gap with Cruz. So there will be no upset in Texas, as Ted Cruz wins his home state. Even winning Texas (which has a lot of delegates), though, won't be enough for Cruz, and the calls for him to exit the race will begin Wednesday morning. So winning Texas will be nothing more than a consolation prize for Cruz.
Vermont
Obviously, Bernie Sanders is going to crush Hillary Clinton in his home state. The last poll I saw had him up by a whopping 76 points. So it's a pretty easy call that Vermont will be the best news Sanders fans have tomorrow night.
The polling on the Republican side isn't quite as lopsided, but it does show Trump with a commanding lead here, so it's an easy pick to say Trump wins Vermont.
Virginia
And we end on another easy call in the South. Virginia goes for both Trump and Clinton.
Whew! That's a lot of states voting all at once!
Let's review my picks, and then if you think I'm wildly off, let me know about it in the comments, as usual. Super Tuesday is going to be very good to both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. Bernie Sanders will have a few more states in his pocket, but the road ahead is going to look very grim indeed for both Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio. Here is the full list of my picks for tomorrow night:
Hillary Clinton wins a total of nine states -- Alabama, American Samoa, Arkansas, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Tennessee, Texas, and Virginia.
Bernie Sanders wins only three states -- Colorado, Oklahoma, and Vermont.
Donald Trump steamrolls across 10 states -- Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Vermont, and Virginia.
Ted Cruz wins only his home state of Texas, and Marco Rubio doesn't win a single state.
Those are my Super Tuesday picks -- what are yours?
-- Chris Weigant
Cross-posted at The Huffington Post
Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant
I think you are on target, based on the data we have. One last prediction Chris: Does Cruz win Texas by 50% and get all 155 delegates or is it a split?
I'm going for a split. But I hope he gets them all. I think the best chance for the remaining sensible people in the Republican Party to hope for is for the race to go to he convention so they can play with the rules and give it to Rubio.
Rubio will play the role of Obama's Supreme Court Nominee - a sacrificial lamb until the election, since it is obvious Trump would split off and hand the election to Hillary.
Do the rest of the center right love our country enough to trump Trump?
Trump on the stump is basically Donald Duck with pants. Happy Super2Zday, and may all your predictions be dead on!
Who is this David Duke person? Is his endorsement worse than Ted Nugent?
Back in 2012, Newsmax was going to have the short-fingered vulgarian with the world's greatest memory moderate a GOP debate. wRong Paul freaked out and sparked a successful boycott. Shameful!
John [3]
I've never met David Duke, but I think he is a champion for the oppressed majority in the U.S. He is one of the heroes who is standing up for the Christian white males who have only had 43 of the last 44 occupants of the white house, and the good news for this downtrodden mass is that the 44th President is at least male and Christian, so it all isn't bad news.
Let's hope that other heroes, like Mussolini, can be repatriated by Donald Trump to even up hundreds of years of dreadful emotional stress that has been ignored!
“I went to an Ivy League school. I'm very highly-educated. I know words. I have the best words." - Trump
Good, bad, terrific, Trump, bigly, stupid, great, yuge, Trump, beautiful, terrible, win, loser, China, deal, wall, strong, weak, Trump . . .
I expect to vote for Bernie Sanders tomorrow morning. Tomorrow evening, I expect to donate to Hillary Clinton because the primaries will be over.
neilm -
Yeah, I forgot to call that one, thanks for reminding me. OK, here goes: Cruz falls short of 50. Let's see... Cruz 46, Trump 38, Rubio 10.
I would have loved to see Cruz lose TX, because I think that's really the only thing that would make him drop out, at this point. But even if he just wins TX, he can claim 2 wins -- 2 more than Rubio. So he'll keep going as long as he's got money...
-CW
I expect to vote for Bernie Sanders tomorrow morning. Tomorrow evening, I expect to donate to Hillary Clinton because the primaries will be over.
Best of the night.. :D
Sadly, I have to agree.. :(
Michale
Speaking of Mass....
Amid Trump surge, nearly 20,000 Mass. voters quit Democratic party
Nearly 20,000 Bay State Democrats have fled the party this winter, with thousands doing so to join the Republican ranks, according to the state’s top elections official.
Secretary of State William Galvin said more than 16,300 Democrats have shed their party affiliation and become independent voters since Jan. 1, while nearly 3,500 more shifted to the MassGOP ahead of tomorrow’s “Super Tuesday” presidential primary.
http://www.bostonherald.com/news/us_politics/2016/02/amid_trump_surge_nearly_20000_mass_voters_quit_democratic_party
Better get used to saying PRESIDENT TRUMP, people.. :D
Michale
I'm going for a split. But I hope he gets them all. I think the best chance for the remaining sensible people in the Republican Party to hope for is for the race to go to he convention so they can play with the rules and give it to Rubio.
You mean the "rules" like the pledge the RNC pushed that stated every candidate would support the eventual nominee??
Those rules?? :D
Michale
http://www.wnd.com/2016/02/a-new-gop-is-born/
Trump is going to drag the GOP into the 21st Century kicking and screaming..
"Would you like to walk to your room or be dragged, kicking and screaming?"
"Ooo Kicking and screaming, please.."
-The Simpsons
:D
Michale
@Michale[10]
2012 Results in MA (and remember, Romney was Governor there):
Obama 1.9M
Romney 1.2M
20,000 is a rounding error. Literally - a 20,000 vote shift would have resulted in:
Obama 1.9M
Romney 1.2M
Oddly, it is also almost exactly as many votes as Jill Stein from the Green Party got.
If this were 2012, you would have a valid point...
Regardless, you miss MY point..
It shows the popularity of Trump, even amongst registered Democrats...
Michale
The really interesting states are Va and MN, because:
1) Moose o' leany is going to have to pick up these and similar states in order to beat the Democratic electoral college firewall.
and
2) These states are running simultaneous Dem and Rep contests which provide direct comparison at state level between the pull of Hillary and Trump.
The ever alert Neilm already tackled M-10, M, do you ever actually read all of the articles you sometimes bother to link? Given your prodigious output, I am guessing no. That little cherry in the BH was overwhelmed by the rest of the fruit cocktail.
I got the point Michale - you think there will be 'Trump democrats' just like there were 'Reagan democrats'.
We'll see. The dirt on Trump will get nastier and more frequent now he is the nominee-presumptive for the Republicans.
If I were Hillary, I'd start a daily drumbeat on two or three fronts, and keep some of the really egregious examples for the run up to the election:
1. Trump the racist (yes, I know you don't think he is)
2. Trump the con man (Trump University, some of the property deals that went south, why is he being audited, , what is he really worth, etc.)
3. Trump the failure (Trump Mortgage, bankruptcies, etc.)
These will not work against the true believers, but that isn't who this is targeted at. The target is the middle ground voters that may be susceptible to message but will be disgusted with the messenger.
This will not be a pretty election.
@neil [16],
agreed, it looks like this campaign is going to get even uglier than usual. your bullet points line up pretty well with the john oliver "drumpf" rant.
https://youtu.be/DnpO_RTSNmQ
JL
@ny[17]
Thanks. Great piece from John Oliver - I can't believe:
http://donaldjdrumpf.com/
"I await your lawsuit in the morning" :)
Michale [11] -
You're right, that whole "loyalty pledge" nonsense is going to come back to bite the GOP candidates (non-Trump ones) on the rear end.
-CW
I got the point Michale - you think there will be 'Trump democrats' just like there were 'Reagan democrats'.
I don't "THINK" anything..
It's well-documented that Trump enjoys support from 20% of the Democrat Party..
Trump the racist (yes, I know you don't think he is)
No, you haven't shown ANY evidence that he is..
If I were Hillary, I'd start a daily drumbeat on two or three fronts, and keep some of the really egregious examples for the run up to the election:
Yea?? Well, the ONLY time we had a direct match-up between Trump and Hillary, Hillary had her ass handed to her all bloody and chewed and she shut up pretty fast..
:D
Trump the failure (Trump Mortgage, bankruptcies, etc.)
Don't make me bring out the Michael Jordan quote, courtesy of NYPoet22 :D
Michale
You're right, that whole "loyalty pledge" nonsense is going to come back to bite the GOP candidates (non-Trump ones) on the rear end.
-CW
I know, right!???
Trump called that BIG TIME!! :D
Michale
M, do you ever actually read all of the articles you sometimes bother to link? Given your prodigious output, I am guessing no. That little cherry in the BH was overwhelmed by the rest of the fruit cocktail.
Of course I do..
And I always know that ya'all will ignore everything in the article except what supports your agenda..
Which allows me to decimate the response... :D
As I did with NeilM....
To hear ya'all tell it, ONLY racists support Trump..
Ergo, you then HAVE to be putting forth the idea that 20% of the Democrat Party is racist...
Which is not that far of a stretch when one considers that the Democrat Party gave us the KKK and Jim Crow..
So, who doesn't read what??? :D
Michale
Trump the failure (Trump Mortgage, bankruptcies, etc.)
Hillary talking about OTHER people's failures is like my talking about OTHER people who post too much.... :D
Michale
Trump the failure (Trump Mortgage, bankruptcies, etc.)
Hillary talking about OTHER people's failures is like my talking about OTHER people who post too much...
If you don't like my opinion on the subject, we can always ask Ambassador Chris Stevens, Sean Smith, Glen Doherty and Tyrone Woods about Hillary's failures....
Oh... wait....
Michale
You see, that's the point ya'all don't get...
Ya'all are so gung-ho about Hillary looking into Trump.. You don't get that Trump will ALSO be looking into Hillary..
"And when you gaze long into the abyss, the abyss also gazes into you"
-Nietzsche
And Trump has a LOT more money to burn and a LOT more information that Hillary will EVER have..
Michale
Michale [20]:
Remember Michale, the only thing likely to coalesce support around Trump is Hillary. So when Bill/Hillary vs. Trump raised its head, Bill/Hillary immediately ducked out - way too early to get in that fight. Thus I'd be a little less confident that the Bill/Hillary + Chicago Boys machine will be quite as easy to roll over for Trump as a bunch of his peers trying to steal his voters.
You don't see the racism in Trump, but a lot of people will see it, even if you are convinced it isn't there. It is a nasty little tag to shake off, especially if he uses his usual line "The Blacks love me". Really Donald?
Do you really think the Dems are going to let Donald off on this - he will be telling everybody how much "The xxx love me" every day.
This is going to be brutal.
Don't make me bring out the Michael Jordan quote, courtesy of NYPoet22 :D
which?
"Republicans buy sneakers too"
~MJ
You don't see the racism in Trump, but a lot of people will see it, even if you are convinced it isn't there.
And the people that see racism in Trump when there is absolutely NO EVIDENCE to support the accusation of racism???
What does that say about them??
Michale
This is going to be brutal.
We are in complete agreement...
Trump brutally slammed down Hill/Bill over Bill Clinton's sexual assaults and rapes..
Funny how you don't want to go there..
Trump won't have a problem going there...
It's going to be brutal...
Michale
Michale [25] -
OK, I have to say I'm impressed with the Nietzsche quote. A bit above your usual fare of quotes...
Getting back to the subject at hand, how many states do you see Trump winning tonight? Rubio? Cruz?
How about Hillary and Bernie?
C'mon, put up or shut up, let us know your picks!
:-)
-CW
Updated my politifact spreadsheet. hillary, trump, sanders and rubio all went down a bit.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1_vcPB-Y1L7zAaueI84ypoKL7nygAeO4po9y13d1aEWE/edit?usp=sharing
CW,
OK, I have to say I'm impressed with the Nietzsche quote. A bit above your usual fare of quotes...
Thanx ya.. My favorite Nietzsche quote is "Those who fight monsters must take care not to become the monster"
Rather apropos in my former line of work...
As far as my predictions...
Trump will take every state... I only say that because it will put ya'all in the unenviable position of rooting for Cruz.. :D
Rubio won't win any state and it serves him right...
I have given up on Bernie, so it doesn't really matter if he wins any states.. He will just delay the inevitable.. I don't even care anymore if Bernie pulls Hillary to the Left because it won't matter... Trump will destroy Hillary even if she DOESN'T get indicted...
I would LOVE to be wrong about Bernie being done, but I don't think I am...
Michale
Trump is killing every where but Texas...
Stick a fork in Rubio.. He's done..
Michale
Drumpf hasn't stepped out of the kindergarten playground yet when it comes to brutal politics. His Republican opponents didn't want to piss off a committed voting block that they would need later and also didn't want Drumpf to take his ball home and run as a third party.
How likely is it that Hillary will be worrying about Drumpf's supporters or of him running as an outsider?
I think you are underestimating Bill/Hillary and the Chicago Boys, just as I underestimated Drumpf last July.
Democracy Corps found that one-fifth of Republicans said they would not vote for Trump, “saying they will vote for another candidate, don’t know or will not vote.” But “5 percent of Republicans say they will vote for Clinton.”
http://www.alternet.org/election-2016/will-trumps-expected-super-tuesday-rout-force-remaining-gop-moderates-flee-party-fall
Drumpf hasn't stepped out of the kindergarten playground yet when it comes to brutal politics.
Whatever you have to tell yourself to make it thru the day... :D
It wasn't Clinton that slammed down Trump and shut him up..
It was Trump that slammed down Clinton and shut her *AND* Bubba up...
How likely is it that Hillary will be worrying about Drumpf's supporters or of him running as an outsider?
Hillary is worried about Bubba being dragged thru the mud with all his sexual assaults and rapes and rides on the Lolita Express to Orgy Island with his pedophile buddy Epstein...
As well she should be...
Because SHE won't have any response to that..
Just like YOU don't have any response to that.. :D
Michale
Democracy Corps found that one-fifth of Republicans said they would not vote for Trump, “saying they will vote for another candidate, don’t know or will not vote.” But “5 percent of Republicans say they will vote for Clinton.”
http://www.alternet.org/election-2016/will-trumps-expected-super-tuesday-rout-force-remaining-gop-moderates-flee-party-fall
Your source is ALTER-NET...
'nuff said.. :D
Michale
Put another way, Neil..
Trump eats pieces of shit like Hillary for breakfast... :D
Michale
Oh come on!! That's a straight line for ANYONE!!! :D
Michale
okay, okay... trump eats pieces of shit?
JL
The eating shit part is certainly true, but he likes cleanliness, so he eats his shit at . . .
http://www.vanityfair.com/news/2016/02/mind-boggling-reason-donald-trump-loves-mcdonalds
THANK you! :D
Both of you! :D
Michale
OK Michale, you have been warned. No crying when Drumpf gets beaten up about being a racist, lying, being a con man, etc. The Democrats have to paint him as an extreme right winger. Look what they did to Mittens and he was about as center-right as you can get.
Drumpf should have run as a Democrat - his policies are closer to the center (planned parenthood, trashing the last three Republican presidents/nominees, squishy on abortion, etc.).
He may even do that if he thinks it will win him the general election. Can you imagine the panic in the Republican Party if Drumpf wins the nomination then pivots to the center. Especially if he picked a Latino Democrat from Texas to be his VP and says that he was just joking (or 'evolved') about the Wall and the Muslim ban.
If he does will you still vote for him?
Would I?
@neil [43],
it's certainly conceivable that trump will pivot hard to the left in the general election. perhaps even moreso if he actually wins and has to start governing. if senate republicans think they'll get a more conservative supreme court justice by stalling 'til next year, they may be in for an unpleasant surprise regardless of who wins the presidency.
JL
Michale -
Trump will take every state... I only say that because it will put ya'all in the unenviable position of rooting for Cruz.. :D
OK, that was funny.
Everyone -
Open thread for today (re-run column) is now up, to discuss election results coming in. See you there!
http://www.chrisweigant.com/2016/03/01/from-the-archives-take-jimmy-carters-advice-on-the-primary-calendar/
-CW
Neil,
Drumpf should have run as a Democrat - his policies are closer to the center (planned parenthood, trashing the last three Republican presidents/nominees, squishy on abortion, etc.).
So... We agree that if Trump was running with the '-D' after his name, you would vote for him.. :D
JL,
it's certainly conceivable that trump will pivot hard to the left in the general election. perhaps even moreso if he actually wins and has to start governing. if senate republicans think they'll get a more conservative supreme court justice by stalling 'til next year, they may be in for an unpleasant surprise regardless of who wins the presidency.
You too?? :D
Michale
Drumpf should have run as a Democrat
You sound like those hysterical right-wingers who refer to Obama as "Odumbo" and "Obummer"....
You are not doing your argument any credibility favors with it..
Just a friendly observation... Hope you accept it in the spirit it was intended.. :D
Michale
So... We agree that if Drumpf was running with the '-D' after his name, you would vote for him.. :D
depends who he was running against. as much as it pains me, in that scenario i'd probably cast a vote for bush or rubio. cruz? well, i guess as trent lott said, that would involve some soul searching.
as to the name drumpf, it's a legit family name, changed by trump's ancestor, a history brought up by john oliver. more similar to the righties who refer to "B. Hussein Obama." snarky, but technically true.
JL
JL,
"depends who he was running against"
Wouldn't it also depend on what he was saying? If he were running for the (D) nom, I think his performance would have to be quite different to be successful although he could probably keep the part about impeaching King George W.
"as to the name drumpf, it's a legit family name, changed by trump's ancestor, a history brought up by john oliver"
Oliver was definitely not the first to bring this up. He simply asks everyone to call Donald that, but it was never Donald's name. OTOH, it's really not very insulting, so the PC police can relax and go back to calling contestants pieces of shit.
as to the name drumpf, it's a legit family name, changed by trump's ancestor, a history brought up by john oliver. more similar to the righties who refer to "B. Hussein Obama." snarky, but technically true.
I didn't know that..
But you hit the nail on the head with the Right Wingery who called Obama, Hussein Obama...
The Left Wingery had a HUGE problem with that, including many Wiegantians even though it was, as you say, technically true...
Michale
hussein obama vs. donald drumpf?
hmm.
hussein obama vs. donald drumpf?
hmm.
Two sides of the same coin.. :D
As always...
Michale