My Picks For Tonight's Primaries
If it's Tuesday, there's bound to be a primary somewhere, and today is certainly no different. So let's jump back into the prediction game once again, where we make wild guesses about who will win tonight's contests. As always, before we begin, we've got to update the scoreboard. Last weekend there were five contests on the Republican side and four for the Democrats.
Let's take the Democrats first. I seem to have been underestimating Bernie Sanders somewhat in the past week or so, and while I did correctly call Kansas and Nebraska for Bernie, I missed out on Maine. A pattern seems to be emerging where Sanders does well in caucus states, which are also notorious in lacking solid polling (making them harder to predict). This was a pattern exploited against Hillary Clinton in 2008 by Barack Obama, but for Bernie it hasn't been quite as good so far (Obama was far ahead of where Bernie is in the delegate count by now). But, as expected, Clinton crushed Bernie in Louisiana, so my overall score for the weekend was calling three right out of four.
On the Republican side, I've been overestimating Donald Trump, but I'm not exactly alone in doing so. Ted Cruz scored two big psychological wins in Kansas and Maine, while Trump took Louisiana and Kentucky. I had called all four races for Trump, while obviously missing the late Cruz surge. I feel better about correctly predicting that Marco Rubio would take Puerto Rico, since it was a rather longshot call to make. Again, though, Cruz (like Sanders) seems to be doing better than expected in caucus states -- something to keep in mind. For the weekend, I was three for five on the Republican side.
So let's update my overall totals.
Total correct 2016 Democratic picks: 16 for 20 -- 80%
Total correct 2016 Republican picks: 20 for 28 -- 71%
Total overall correct picks: 36 for 48 -- 75%.
With that out of the way, let's take a look at the four states (and one overseas contest) which are voting today. Democrats are only voting in two of these states (Michigan and Mississippi), while Republicans are voting in all four (adding Idaho and Hawai'i). We'll take them in alphabetical order.
Democrats Abroad (Democrats)
This is a new feature of the primary calendar, as Democrats living outside the United States are given a voice in the process. This voting actually started last Tuesday, but will conclude tonight. Obviously, there is no polling to go by, making this a tossup call. I'm going to go ahead and hand it to Bernie Sanders, since people who live in other countries aren't nearly as frightened of the label "socialism." This is just a gut feeling, mind you.
Hawai'i (Republicans)
Hawai'i is one of the states deemed so insignificant that pollsters feel it's not even worth polling. Because of this, making a prediction is truly throwing a dart at the wall. I'm tempted to call the state for Rubio, because it would be fun to see him do well among all the U.S. islands, and also because I think Hawai'i Republicans are a bit more mellow than their mainland counterparts. I could see Hawai'i voters going for an establishment character like Rubio (or even Kasich).
But in the end, I doubt this reasoning. Hawai'i results could surprise everyone, but I am going to play it safe and bet that Donald Trump takes the state. He's been bragging that his internal polls show he's ahead there, and while it's always dangerous to believe campaign statements along these lines, it is the only hint of any polling I've even heard of. So I'm going to take Trump's campaign at their word and say Hawai'i goes for Trump. Cowabunga!
Idaho (Republicans)
Idaho seems like a state where Ted Cruz could do quite well. It's part of the conservative Mountain West, and Cruz has already proven he can do well in the middle of the country (Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Iowa). However (bad luck for Ted), it is a primary state and not a caucus state, which may blunt any advantage he might have.
Idaho polling has been somewhat scarce, but it seems to show Trump with a solid lead. What's interesting about the latest poll is there seems to be a high percentage of people who haven't made up their minds yet. This could give Cruz the wave he needs to overcome Trump's lead. I feel the least confident of any of today's predictions here, but I'm going to go with the polling and say Trump edges Cruz out. I wouldn't be surprised to be wrong, though.
Michigan
Michigan is the big prize tonight, in delegates and in bragging rights. Both races will be important, because they'll show the relative strength of populism among a Midwestern state with a lot of blue-collar workers. The general election in November could indeed hinge on states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Wisconsin. So the results here tonight will be examined under a microscope.
The Republican side seems easier to call, because the only real race is for second place. Donald Trump will likely score an easy victory here, but the big question is whether Ted Cruz can fend off a late charge from John Kasich for second. Now, Kasich is indeed from a neighboring state, which you'd think would give him an advantage, but Michigan and Ohio don't exactly have a whole lot of love for each other (see: college football), so the "guy from next door" edge might not exist (or, indeed might work in the opposite direction from normal).
But Kasich's state is also very closely dependent on the auto industry, so the same sort of political dynamic is in play. Kasich might very well steal second place away from Cruz here, which would be good news for him heading into next Tuesday, when Ohio votes in a winner-takes-all contest.
But, while all that is interesting, we've already moved on from making predictions about second and third places, so we're just going to call Michigan for Trump and sit back and watch what happens behind him.
Michigan is also the hot race among Democrats. Hillary Clinton is favored, and she's been up over Bernie Sanders by double digits in recent polls, but the two campaigns have been sending signals that the vote might be a lot closer than the polls are showing. Most pundits said Hillary did better in this weekend's Flint debate, but Bernie landed some solid blows as well.
However, whether you think it's a fair attack or not, I think Hillary's claim that Bernie was "against bailing out the auto industry" is going to be convincing, at least to the point of turning back any last-minute wave for Sanders. Clinton will win Michigan, but the margin will be smaller than the polling is now indicating. If Bernie has a good night, Clinton's margin will be in the single digits.
Mississippi
This one is relatively easy to predict, because Mississippi is quite likely to vote along the lines of all of its neighbors in the Deep South. Both Clinton and Trump will win by overwhelming margins. There's really not a lot more to say about this one.
So those are my calls for tonight's contests. A complete sweep for both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton, at least within the borders of the United States. Bernie Sanders picks up the consolation prize of Democrats Abroad. As always, let me know if you disagree with any of these picks in the comments. Oh, and I'm introducing a feature today from years past, as I'm listing all of my previous picks below, arranged (roughly) alphabetically by state. This way, if you'd like to check my record on any primaries which have already happened, you now have an easy way to do so.
[Previous states' picks:]
[AK (R)] [AL] [AR] [CO (D)] [GA] [IA] [KS] [KY (R)] [LA] [MA] [ME] [MN] [NE (D)] [NH] [NV (D)] [NV (R)] [OK] [SC (D)] [SC (R)] [TN] [TX] [VA] [VT] [American Samoa (D)] [Puerto Rico (R)]
-- Chris Weigant
Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant
Well if Trump doesn't win Michigan there'll be hell toupee!
I think it was an impulsive tactical error for Big Donald to exaggerate about his micro-hands in front of a national TV audience. It made him look weak and insecure. That hurts him more than anything Willard Rmoney has to say and Trump is much richer than him, OK?
"I feel better about correctly predicting that Marco Rubio would take Puerto Rico, since it was a rather longshot call to make."
He promised them amnesty. He said it in Mexican.
neilm -
Heh. Hair today, goon tomorrow...
JFC -
OK, now THAT was funny! Especially seeing as how they're all US citizens... heh...
-CW
Looks like they didn't waste any time calling MS for Hillary...
-CW
@nielm
I agree! if he looses it could signal a bald spot on his strategy piece.
He might have to comb over his strategy and wrap around the results.
I like how MS has been called for HC before even a pecinct is reporting...
while we wait for results, is it just me or is anyone else irritated with the factoring of Super delegates into the "victory numbers"?
to my thinking it sort of helps conflate the narrative that Hillary is kicking Bernies ass, When in fact if you look strictly at the pledged delegates he isn't doing to badly.
MS called by some (CNN, NBC) for Trump. He might get over 50% here, which (I think) would mean he takes all the delegates.
goode trickle -
Go to HuffPost's results page -- they have a little box you can check or uncheck to show pledged delegates only versus pledged plus supers.
-CW
Don't need no stinking boxes...i gots me the finger and toes plus and abacus...
My musing was more about the general overall reporting of the HRC campaign by many in the media to involve the super delegates.
It has been a peave of mine for awhile, while sure the super-delegates are part of the equation, I also wonder if it skews nomination results after a point because of the tendency to report the super-delegate numbers lumped in with the pledged totals making it seem like one or the other candidate is way ahead, when infarct the results are close amongst the voters, that is...thus ensuring that the establishment choice wins no matter what.
To me supers should not even count in the process until it is clear that a majority cannot be reached to secure the nomination.
Bernie's looking surprisingly strong in MI, at least so far... might get that one wrong...
-CW
MI goes Trump...
-CW
is it just me or is anyone else irritated with the factoring of Super delegates into the "victory numbers"?
It's not just you.
If the media weren't in the tank for Hillary, the narrative would have been "can she win outside the South?" by now. Instead of the delegates-won-plus-endorsements count, we would have projections based on the assumption that they win the same percentage in the rest of the South and the rest of the non-South that they have so far.
If Hillary loses Michigan, that should concern her supporters... that would be as big an upset as Bernie losing MA.
-CW
Cruz up in ID, but it's still very early on...
-CW
MI goes to Bernie... looks like I'm only 50/50 for Dems tonight...
-CW
HilRod got Berned. No "it's all over speech" tonight.
OK - I'm starting to draft an apology letter to Michale - the protest vote is a lot stronger this year than before.
Dom't get me wrong Michale my friend, I'm convinced we'll be saying "President Clinton" for a third time, ... but then, I'm usually wrong ;)
I can hardly wait for President Drumpf's annual State of the Brand Speech. Classy!
Ted takes Idaho. I'm only 2-for-3 on the GOP side tonight, it seems...
-CW
Just checked -- Dems Abroad aren't going to announce results until March 21... so there's that to wait for...
-CW
Well, they finally called Hawai'i for Trump... I'm off to bed...
-CW
How can you sleep after that?
Well if Trump doesn't win Michigan there'll be hell toupee!
Groan...
Heh. Hair today, goon tomorrow...
Double groan...
"Plasma Leek Soup? Chicken Warp Core-don Bleu?"
"If his cooking's as bad as his puns, we're in trouble."
-Star Trek VOYAGER
:D
OK - I'm starting to draft an apology letter to Michale - the protest vote is a lot stronger this year than before.
Dom't get me wrong Michale my friend, I'm convinced we'll be saying "President Clinton" for a third time, ... but then, I'm usually wrong ;)
Never underestimate a pissed off American...
I mean look at it.. The 2008 Americans were ALSO pissed off and they took a chance on an inexperienced nobody who had some lofty words....
Boy, what a let down...
Now Americans are REALLY pissed off and they are going to go with another outside who actually has experience...
Michale
Has anyone had a problem with a Marco Rubio popup on Drudge???
Michale
The only reason I ask is that it's obvious that Drudge is no friend of Rubio..
http://sjfm.us/temp/drudge2.jpg
Ya'all gotta admit.. THAT is pretty funny... Yea, Drudge is definitely down on Rubio..
Which is why I can't understand why Drudge would take on a VERY annoying Rubio popup...
Michale
Speaking of Drudge...
http://sjfm.us/temp/drudge3.jpg
I was bored one morning.. :D
Michale
And St Augustine makes FNC again! :D
http://www.foxnews.com/travel/2016/03/08/most-terrifying-zipline-ever-soar-over-live-crocodiles/?intcmp=hphz14
Michale
http://www.detroitnews.com/story/opinion/columnists/nolan-finley/2016/03/06/finley-flint-backfire-clinton/81420984/
This is why ya'all better get used to saying President Trump...
Americans don't want an Establishment Status Quo President...
Michale
Did ya'all know that Hillary's campaign is paying Hillary almost $21,000 dollar a month??
I did not know that....
That is gabberflasting...
Michale
Never underestimate a pissed off American...
we're a simple people, but if you piss us off we'll bomb your cities.
~robin williams
These are people of the land. The common clay of the new West. You know... morons.
~blazing saddles
@Michale[29] - No, she paid $250,000 INTO the campaign - the daily blurb can't read campaign finance reports.
One the other hand, Trump got $410,000 from his campaign. Like he needs it?
@Michale[29] - No, she paid $250,000 INTO the campaign - the daily blurb can't read campaign finance reports.
I stand corrected.. Thank you for clearing that up...
we're a simple people, but if you piss us off we'll bomb your cities.
~robin williams
hehehehehe LIVE AT THE MET.. One of Robin Williams finest standups...
Michale
Pretty much everybody got MI wrong, pollsters, forecasters, pundits and modelers. Sanders pulled off an upset that will be talked about for a long time!
https://pjmedia.com/andrewmccarthy/2016/03/07/camp-clintons-laughable-claim-that-petraeuss-offense-was-worse/?singlepage=true
Anyone who still doesn't think Clinton will be indicted is simply denying reality.....
Michale
Heh: Pajama Media
Heh: Pajama Media
I have always wondered about that...
Didn't PJM used to be a rabid Left Wingery outfit, like DKos???
Michale
Nope, right wing libertarian aggregator since it hatched. Name derives from a quote from a CBS News executive directed at the blogoshere in general:
"You couldn't have a starker contrast between the multiple layers of checks and balances at 60 Minutes and a guy sitting in his living room in his pajamas."
Hmmmmmm I guess it's true what they say...
At my age, the memory is the second thing to go.. :D
Michale
"Anyone who still doesn't think Clinton will be indicted is simply denying reality....."
Or has read the federal register
http://www.archives.gov/federal-register/codification/executive-order/12356.html#3.1
The facts are that Clinton, and other agency heads answering to a President have incredibly broad powers to disseminate, downgrade and declassify. Backed up with weasel words like "reasonably expected to."
Ah, age...
There seems to be some debate about what is the first thing to go, or if it ever measured up to Liam Neesan in the first place.
The facts are that Clinton, and other agency heads answering to a President have incredibly broad powers to disseminate, downgrade and declassify.
Yea, like General Patraeus...
But, OK.. fine...
Show me the memos and the procedures that Clinton issued and followed to disseminate, downgrade and declassify the intelligence...
Further, the fact that the FBI is investigating and devoting so many resources and man hours to the investigation seems to indicate that Clinton DOESN'T have the broad powers that you seem to think she does...
You see, that's the ONE thing ya'all can't spin away...
Obama's FBI is investigating....
There seems to be some debate about what is the first thing to go, or if it ever measured up to Liam Neesan in the first place.
[at the grocery store, Liam Neeson stops at Ted’s counter to buy Trix cereal]
Liam Neeson: Hey.
Ted: Hello.
Liam Neeson: I’d, uh…like to ask a few questions about this breakfast cereal.
Ted: Uh, yeah, yeah. Box of Trix.
Liam Neeson: That’s right. I’ve been led to understand that Trix are exclusively for children, is that correct?
Ted: Well, I mean they say, uh…Trix are for kids in the commercials.
Liam Neeson: Uh-huh. Uh-huh. And is that enforced by law?
Ted: Uh, not to my knowledge, no.
Liam Neeson: So if I purchases these Trix there’ll be no trouble?
Ted: No, no, you should be fine.
Liam Neeson: You do understand that I myself am not a child?
Ted: I…I was able to sniff that out, yeah.
Liam Neeson: Okay, I’m gonna bring these back to my apartment.
Ted: Uh, yeah, yeah. You’ll…you’ll be okay.
Liam Neeson: And, uh…I won’t be followed?
Ted: Uh, no. That’s…that’s not in our budget here.
[Liam Neeson puts the money on the counter]
Liam Neeson: Hey, I won’t forget what you’ve done for me here today.
Ted: I would prefer that you do.
[Liam Neeson hides the cereal box under his jacket and walks off]
Ted: Jesus Christ!
:D
Michale
Well, since you don't like Pajama Media...
http://thehill.com/policy/cybersecurity/272290-comeys-fbi-makes-waves
Remind me again how Hillary didn't do anything wrong??
If yer so sure of yer position, you can join the Weigantia bet... :D
Michale
The facts are that Clinton, and other agency heads answering to a President have incredibly broad powers to disseminate, downgrade and declassify. Backed up with weasel words like "reasonably expected to."
Apparently......
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fact-checker/wp/2016/03/09/fact-checking-the-hillary-clinton-email-controversy/
..... you are in error..
Michale
Jorge Ramos asked Clinton if she would drop out of the race if the DOJ indicted her for her crimes..
http://www.businessinsider.com/jorge-ramos-hillary-clinton-emails-indictment-debate-2016-3
Clinton refused to answer claiming it's not going to happen..
So, if Clinton is so sure-fire positive it's NOT going to happen, why doesn't she answer the question??
She can strike a blow at her adversaries by stating unequivocally that if she is indicted that she would bow out of the race...
The fact that she refuses to answer shows that she is not sure whether an indictment is coming down the pipe.. One could even make the case that Clinton KNOWS that the FBI will recommend indictment and that's why she won't answer a simple and straight-forward question...
The FBI will recommend an indictment against Hillary and/or her senior staff...
Given recent events, this is as near certainty as can possibly be without being absolute...
Michale
the business insider article (fairly conservative mag, by the way) in the link says,
"The FBI has been looking into whether any classified material was mishandled during Clinton's tenure at the State Department from 2009 to 2013. The agency has said, however, that she is not a target in the investigation."
michale, i think you will soon be wearing a hillary is my hero t-shirt.
JL
"The FBI has been looking into whether any classified material was mishandled during Clinton's tenure at the State Department from 2009 to 2013. The agency has said, however, that she is not a target in the investigation."
And if you believe that, I have some swampland in Florida I want to sell you... :D It would be like the cops investigating a car on a drunk driving issue...
michale, i think you will soon be wearing a hillary is my hero t-shirt.
Keep thinking that.. :D
"You did this, didn't you?"
"You think I would really break up a couple just to win a bowling match?"
"No, I suppose not."
"Good. Keep thinking that."
-Big Bang Theory
:D
We'll know by the first week of May...
Michale
In a letter disclosed Monday in a federal court filing, the FBI confirms one of the world’s worst-kept secrets: It is looking into Hillary Clinton’s use of a private email server.
http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/fbi-formally-confirms-its-investigation-hillary-clintons-email-server
Emphasis mine...
Michale