Calling Tonight's Primaries
It's time to play the "predict the results" game again, folks. Today's primaries and caucuses weren't getting all that much attention as it was, and now with the Brussels bombing tragedy, they are going to get even less attention. But we've got to remain focused, so let's concentrate on the two parties' races for the presidential nominations, once again.
As always, the first thing we've got to do is update the results from last time. There were five big contests last Tuesday, and I did fairly well calling the Republican side, but not so great on the Democratic side.
Before we get to that, though, way back at the beginning of the month, there was a primary for Democrats Abroad. Due to the monumental task of holding a world-wide primary, it took until a few days ago to count the returns. But it was announced that ex-pat Democrats went for Bernie Sanders, as I had predicted. So my "1-for-1" victory here will help my otherwise-dismal Democratic total from last week.
For a few weeks, I had been overestimating Hillary Clinton's support, so last week I tilted in the other direction. Too far, it appears, as Bernie Sanders didn't win a single race. I had predicted he'd take three of the five states voting (Ohio, Missouri, and Illinois). While he did come very close in both Missouri and Illinois, when the night ended he wound up with zero victories to brag about. So adding my 2-for-5 total to the Democrats Abroad, my score for the Democratic side is an even 3-for-6. In other words, I could have tossed a coin and come up with the same results. Such is the nature of making predictions, at times.
I did a lot better on the Republican side, calling Florida, Illinois, and North Carolina for Trump, and Ohio for Kasich. I really thought Ted Cruz might eke out a victory in Missouri, but while it was close (the Missouri contest was very close on both sides), at the end of the night Trump edged him out. This put me at 4-for-5 overall, which is a lot better than I managed with the Democrats. I also correctly predicted that Marco Rubio would immediately drop out, but these side predictions don't actually count as correct picks.
Here is my 2016 running-total record, so far:
Total correct 2016 Democratic picks: 20 for 28 -- 71%
Total correct 2016 Republican picks: 27 for 37 -- 73%
Total overall correct picks: 47 for 65 -- 72%.
With that out of the way, let's move along to tonight's contests. There are three on both sides, with two overlaps.
American Samoa (Republicans)
Predicting how the island territories will vote is nothing short of a stab in the dark, due to the complete non-existence of polling. Donald Trump seems to be doing pretty well so far in this category, so based on absolutely nothing more than a gut feeling, I'm going to say he wins American Samoa tonight. Perhaps he already has -- haven't checked to see when the returns will come in (might depend on which side of the Date Line is it on).
Arizona
The big news out of Arizona tonight might not be from either the Democratic or Republican presidential races. Because there's another fierce battle being fought, to see whether Senator John McCain will even have a chance at winning re-election. He faces a strong primary opponent, so he could be dethroned tonight if he doesn't do well. His comments about Donald Trump likely aren't going to help, either, as Trump seems to be heading for a victory in Arizona. The polling is sparse, so Cruz could conceivably score an upset here, but I'm going with Trump winning tonight. I kind of doubt McCain will be ousted, but if that does come to pass, it's going to be bigger news than any of the presidential returns tonight.
On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton looks like she'll easily take Arizona. What polling there is doesn't show much of a close race, so the safe bet is Arizona goes for Clinton.
Idaho (Democrats)
Truth be told, none of the states voting today have much solid polling to base predictions on. Idaho's Democrats will caucus tonight, and I'm going to guess that Bernie Sanders wins the day. Caucus states almost always favor the candidate with more commitment and excitement on their side, so Sanders should be able to claim victory here.
Utah
Utah will be the wonks' favorite state to watch tonight, since the big question on the Republican side is not whether Ted Cruz will beat Trump here, but how badly. If Cruz gets over 50 percent of the vote in the caucuses, he will win all the state's delegates. If Trump (as expected) wins Arizona, he'll win all the delegates there, so Cruz really needs a "winner takes all" victory in order not to slip even further behind Trump in the delegate race. To complicate things, John Kasich has actually been campaigning in Utah, and he might capture enough of the vote to deny Cruz a clear majority. I'm going to make a side prediction, and say that Cruz wins, but misses the 50 percent target -- meaning the delegates will be split proportionally.
Utah is looking like pretty friendly territory for Bernie Sanders, as well. Polls show the race could go either way, but Bernie seems like he's created a late surge to pull ahead of Hillary. Late-breaking surges are usually pretty determinative, so I'm going to say Sanders wins Utah, giving him two states out of three tonight.
So those are my picks. American Samoa and Arizona go for Trump, and Utah goes to Cruz (but not by enough to give him all the delegates). Arizona goes for Clinton, while Idaho and Utah go for Sanders. John McCain lives on to fight another day in Arizona.
As always, if you disagree with my picks, feel free to share your own in the comments.
[Previous states' picks:]
[AK (R)] [AL] [AR] [CO (D)] [FL] [GA] [HI (R)] [IA] [ID (R)] [IL] [KS] [KY (R)] [LA] [MA] [ME] [MI] [MN] [MO] [MS] [NC] [NE (D)] [NH] [NV (D)] [NV (R)] [OH] [OK] [SC (D)] [SC (R)] [TN] [TX] [VA] [VT] [American Samoa (D)] [Puerto Rico (R)] [Democrats Abroad (D)]
-- Chris Weigant
Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant
Today's anecdote: Walking the dog on the Towpath trail (park trails that follow our old canal system in Ohio), stopped to talk to a very well-off looking white male senior who was stretching prior (based on his clothing) to doing a jog.
He immediately looked apologetic and said he knew nothing at all about the current election season. He said years ago he'd worked in the court system for a year and he was so turned off and disenchanted he's made it a point of avoiding all politics ever since. He said he was sorry, "I know that's not what you want to hear." I said not at all, what I want to hear is what people think -- he smiled and we moved on.
CW-
I think you may be partly wrong on your Utah prediction. By many accounts, Trump is deeply unpopular with the LDS, I think this factor will take Cruz into the winner take all circle. I'm betting Kasich is an Ohio thing.
Paula -
A good reminder that political wonks are definitely not normal. Most people pay very little attention to this stuff, in fact. When I started blogging, I started watching the late night comics, because a frightening portion of the American public gets their ONLY news this way -- so it's important for me to hear what they're saying.
TheStig -
You might have been right yesterday, but Cruz's comments today RE: Muslim neighborhoods are not likely to go down well with Mormons. They're pretty sensitive about religious persecution, given their history. I still bet Kasich draws enough to deny him. Mostly because I want to see the wrath he'll bring down from fellow GOPers afterwards, I suppose.
-CW
They just called AZ for Trump. Surprised they didn't also call it for Hillary at the same time, actually...
-CW
Just called AZ for Clinton.
I'm trying to dig out McCain's numbers, but haven't found a live-update site yet...
-CW
Hey, Chris ... why don't you try CNN's magic wall?
That wall has all the answers ...
Whoops! Looks like I might have goofed, just found a site that says AZ has a two-primary system, and they don't vote for the Senate races until the end of August. So... um... just ignore all that stuff about McCain, I guess.
Mea culpa, everyone.
-CW
You mean, McCain is going to be in a primary fight? With someone to the right of him? ... that should be fun.
FINALLY some other results coming in. Looks like Cruz is kicking Trump's butt in UT. Only 2% reporting, but looking now like he'll easily get over 50%...
-CW
PS. What is up with vote-counting in ID? It's been 2 hours, no results yet...
@CW
So American Samoa is 15% LDS. 538.com estimates that 25% of Republican primary voters are LDS. Take is - bad for Trump.
Dem #s coming in... Bernie looking pretty good in UT.
-CW
neilm -
That whole prediction might be a scratch -- there's something weird about their delegates. I don't think any of them are "bound" for some reason. Interesting, the bit about LDS. Might help Cruz, since he seems to be doing well in UT so far.
-CW
Utah called for Sanders. So I'm 2-for-2 so far on the Dem side... still waiting for Idaho #s...
-CW
RNC guy Curly Haugland (really?) says that all this delegate counting is for nothing. The RNC delegates can vote for whoever they please according to the rules. The voting is a charade.
Are the delegates "establishment" RINOs?
OK, we just got ID. All of it, at once. Bernie wins another one.
Cruz seems likely to top 50 in UT, even though they haven't even called the state yet. But less than 20% counted.
I'm going to bed, see you all tomorrow...
-CW
RNC guy Curly Haugland (really?) says that all this delegate counting is for nothing. The RNC delegates can vote for whoever they please according to the rules. The voting is a charade.
Neil?? Fact check?? :D
Michale
The LDS knows how to mobilize...Utah skins Trump's rump!
We've gone from Godwins to Trump's ass...
Yea... No Derangement Syndrome here.. :^/
heh
Michale
http://www.godlikeproductions.com/forum1/message3126238/pg1?disclaimer=1
Voting you can believe in.... :^/
Michale
Curly Haugland is being a bit disingenuous from my reading about this. In November he sent a letter to all the nominees urging them to stay in the race to keep ownership of their delegates - not sure what he meant, and I don't think anybody else does either ;)
He also says that the delegates are unbound - but most people's interpretation of the rules indicate that delegates are bound for the first vote, but then free thereafter.
He also talks about eliminating rule 40(b), which I understand to already have happened. Rule 40(b) was brought in for the 2012 convention to eliminate Ron Paul. The warning here is that the RNC might replace it with another rule (e.g. All nominees much have normal sized hands) to target somebody else they don't like.
And rule 40(b) also reminds us that the 112 member rule committee will be meeting right before the convention.
Here are a few suggested rules:
1. No gingers
2. All nominees must have displayed decorum fit for the role of Republican Nominee - e.g. no dick references
3. No nominee can be banned from entry to any NATO country (giving our allies a deciding vote in the process) - can you imagine how fast Britain is going to pass a rule banning Trump if they know it will eliminate him?
4. No nominee can be regarded as a complete clown by the 2012 candidate
A couple of potential sensible ones:
1. All nominees must issue their full tax statements for the past 10 years
2. All nominees must have held elected office as at the state or federal level within the last 10 years
Neil,
I get that you don't like the GOP Convention rules..
How do you feel about the Democrat Party Convention rules??
:D
Michale
I have no problem with the Republican convention rules - sorry - don't see where you get that from my post.
The Democratic primary process seems less Byzantine - the states allocate delegates proportionally - there are no cut-offs, winner take alls, etc. (at least to the best of my knowledge).
I understand that the Republican primary rules were put in place to favor a nationwide candidate a la Romney over a more regional candidate (e.g. Cruz), but Trump came along and has a nationwide level of support just high enough to have the accelerators kick in in his favor. Good luck to him, the rules should at least be applied consistently. I would imagine that there will be a nominating committee in the future and all candidates that want to be official Republican candidates will have to be pre-approved (i.e. The Donald Rule), but it is too late this time.
The convention rules are up to the party and are determined just before the convention. It is the 112 person rules committee that Donald is talking to when he brings up riots ("dat's a nice convention rules committee you got there, shame if somebody broke all 224 legs on it, if ya know what I'm sayin'?").
"The media has created the perception that the voters will decide the nomination" - Curly Haugland (RNC Rules Committee member and cheater)
"The political parties choose their nominees, not the general public, contrary to popular belief" - Curly Haugland
The Democratic primary process seems less Byzantine - the states allocate delegates proportionally - there are no cut-offs, winner take alls, etc. (at least to the best of my knowledge).
Two words..
SuperDelegates...
That seems to negate the entire CONCEPT of "democracy"....
Less Byzantine my left arse cheek!! :D
But I can understand why you would want to ignore that in favor of simply trashing the GOP.. :D
Michale
I meant less Byzantine from a state to state perspective - the super delegates give the party a say in the outcome, and I agree that adds a labyrinthine element to the Democratic side.
If I set the rules there would be:
1. Pure proportional representation and no superdelegates
2. 6 'Super Tuesdays' in a row, each with roughly an equal share of delegates available each week
3. Randomization of the order that states vote - none of this Iowa/NH nonsense, to give all states a chance to be 'important'.
Plus I'd do away with the electoral college and just make it one person one vote nationwide in the general election.
CW -3
The way I see it, the LDS motivation was more a vote for a stalemate going into the convention than a vote for Cruz. Somebody less crazy than Trump. Romney reboot maybe? That's said tongue in cheek, mostly.
Plus I'd do away with the electoral college and just make it one person one vote nationwide in the general election.
Right up to the point that the GOP candidate wins the popular vote..
Then it's, like... "Oh.. Never mind!!"
:D
That's why I love not being enslaved/beholden to any political Party..
I get to laugh at all of them!! :D
Michale
"The media has created the perception that the voters will decide the nomination" - Curly Haugland (RNC Rules Committee member and cheater)
"The political parties choose their nominees, not the general public, contrary to popular belief" - Curly Haugland
BBbwwwhahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha :D
Dance, little puppet.. Dance!!! :D
Michale
IS TRAINS 400 FIGHTERS TO ATTACK EUROPE IN WAVE OF BLOODSHED
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/E/EU_BRUSSELS_ATTACKS_CELLS?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2016-03-23-15-15-46
Yea... Let's welcome ALL refugees no matter what..
What could POSSIBLY go wrong!??? :^/
Michale
Dear Trump chump,
Bbwwwhahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha
Indeed. Now you're laughing because I just posted more accurate RW quotes. You know, the thing that you've been bitching and lying about like a whiny baby.
"JFC makes some of the most ridiculous quotes imaginable, ostensibly from the Right Wingery" - the chatbot
I'm enjoying it as my quotes are validated and your lies and fake quotes are exposed. Yuk it up, gaslighter.
Indeed. Now you're laughing because I just posted more accurate RW quotes.
No... I am laughing because I *FORCED* you to post more accurate RW quotes..
I just watched the new STAR WARS 7 movie.. Apparently, I have something of the Force within in me...
"You are going to undue my restraints and leave the room, leaving the door open..... AND DROP YOUR WEAPON!!"
-Rey, STAR WARS 7-The Force Awakens
:D
Michale
Dear chatbot,
I'm unsurprised by your goalpost-moving. Clasic troll move.
You're a liar. Your gaslighting won't disguise that.
Right up to the point that the GOP candidate wins the popular vote..
Then it's, like... "Oh.. Never mind!!"
Here we go again, making things up then getting worked up about them.
Let's live in reality (a challenge for feelies, but you'll get there).
Democrats would take a 'popular vote' election in a heartbeat - without the gerrymandering (e.g. North Carolina where 52% voted democratic but the congress seats were 9 R to 4 D) democrats would win most elections easily.
So not only is your premise wrong, but the reaction from the right if a pure nationwide democracy was proposed for Presidential elections would be massive - all sorts of reasons would be brought up why it is unAmerican, etc. etc.
Try it - go to a nut case RW web site (try NRO) and put it in as a comment and see the reaction.
Dear chatbot,
Dance my little puppet, dance!! :D
heh
Michale
Democrats would take a 'popular vote' election in a heartbeat - without the gerrymandering (e.g. North Carolina where 52% voted democratic but the congress seats were 9 R to 4 D) democrats would win most elections easily.
Wow... Bigotry much... :D
Michale
JFC,
Indeed. Now you're laughing because I just posted more accurate RW quotes.
Well, I am glad you finally conceded that your quotes before were bullshit quotes.. :D
"Pull the string and you'll wink at me, your my puppet
You'll do funny things if I want you to, your my puppet"
James & Bobby Purify
It's not worthy of me to have so much fun at your expense, John.. :D
But sometimes it's just too damn irresistible... :D
You can go back to ignoring me now.. You have been spanked enough.. :D
Michale
"you finally conceded that your quotes before were bullshit quotes"
Another lie. I'm shocked.
A recap:
You made up a false quote and attributed it to Hillary Clinton.
Other commenters called you out on your bullshit.
Rather than take personal responsibility for your egregious transgression, you deflected by indulging in an ad hom attack on me, a previously uninvolved person.
The entire episode has demonstrated that you’re a liar, a hack, and a troll.
You claim that's winning!
I’m happy for you.
Do you always indulge in such conversations with, what you claim, is nothing but a chat bot??
I am curious... Do you have debates with your furniture?? Maybe a good heart to heart with your couch?? Ask your table what it wants for dinner??
You see, my dear John, you set the stage.. By calling me nothing but a program, every time you respond to me, you are showing all of Weigantia what a fool you are...
Considering your inane comments, THAT particular die has already been cast.. But the fact you continue to TRY and win debates with a, what YOU claim is a non-sentient thing.... Well, you prove every time how utterly clueless you are.. :D
By all means, if you want to get spanked even more, continue.. :D
I love slapping down the intellectually inferior.. And considering I have already conceded that I am just a knuckle dragging ground pounder, the fact that I am your intellectual superior???
Well, that's just gotta hurt!! :D
Keep dancing, Puppet.. :D
Michale
"You cross brains with Spock, you get cut to pieces every time!"
-Ensign Hikaru Sulu
:D
Michale
Other commenters called you out on your bullshit.
And other commenters called YOU out on your bullshit that I am a chatbot..
Does that stop you from spewing your bullshit???
It works both ways, son...
Michale
Today's primaries and caucuses weren't getting all that much attention as it was, and now with the Brussels bombing tragedy, they are going to get even less attention.
Brussels bombing tragedy???
Obama dances while Brussels burns: President and Michelle take to the floor to TANGO during glitzy state dinner in Buenos Aires as he ignores calls to come home in wake of terror attacks
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3507001/Maybe-advice-Barack-Obama-ignores-calls-come-home-wake-Brussels-attack-President-Michelle-attend-glitzy-state-dinner-Buenos-Aires.html#ixzz43p6Vwyn5
WHAT Brussels bombing tragedy???
Sure glad our fearless leader didn't let terrorism interrupt his tango..
"Harry! Don't have time to tango. Ditch the bitch."
-Tom Arnold, TRUE LIES
Michale
[42] Michale:
I often wonder how you think things actually work. Is it conceivable to you that the President can deal with more than one thing at a time? Or that he can deal with things from more than one place on earth? That he doesn't have to rush back to the White House every time something happens somewhere that needs attention?
Also, do you realize Brussels is it's own country? It has its own people/authorities/experts right there? Also, do you realize the U.S. has probably already has OUR experts involved? That the President doesn't personally manage every-single-thing on earth?
I'm curious about your views re: Detroit Lead Poisoning? (Or, that is to say, the rightwing view of the Detroit Lead Poisoning which you will have absorbed.) Do you agree Gov. Snyder should step down? (Or even be your favorite word: INDICTED?)
I often wonder how you think things actually work. Is it conceivable to you that the President can deal with more than one thing at a time? Or that he can deal with things from more than one place on earth? That he doesn't have to rush back to the White House every time something happens somewhere that needs attention?
It's all about the optics..
Ya'all savaged Bush because he stayed a few minutes after he was told about the first plane hitting the WTC.... There was absolutely NO difference if Bush had jumped out of his seat and ran out of the room right then and there..
But the OPTICS looked bad....
To see a cross screen of, on the left, the death and carnage and blood in Brussels and, on the right, Obama dancing and laughing??
Well, that's just horrendous optics..
And, if you could look at things thru the eyes of a political agnostic, you would agree with me...
I'm curious about your views re: Detroit Lead Poisoning? (Or, that is to say, the rightwing view of the Detroit Lead Poisoning which you will have absorbed.) Do you agree Gov. Snyder should step down? (Or even be your favorite word: INDICTED?)
Sure... As long as Obama's EPA is equally held accountable..
But you don't want that, do you?? NOTHING matters as long as you can pin it on the GOP... The Obama Administration's culpability is ignored...
Michale
Or that he can deal with things from more than one place on earth?
Well, judging from the batshit hysterical crazy coming out of the Left Wingery every time Bush took a vacation, I would have to say that the LEFT doesn't believe that a President can deal with things from more than one place on earth...
Eh?? :D
Michale
Your life seems to be filled with a series of grudges that you need to constantly reference and try to "get even" for.
And, of course, it wouldn't matter what Obama did or didn't do you would damn him because that's what you do.
Re: Flint, actually, not Detroit -- but we both know what I was talking about -- a report was just released that spreads the blame around quite a bit, but the key blame went to Snyder and his Emergency Managers. The state EPA gets its share of blame too, for acquiescing too much to the Snyder admin.
The Flint debacle brings into sharp relief a number of issues surrounding governing, how it should be done, how the public should be served, what priorities should be, etc.
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/03/23/us/document-Flint.html?_r=0
This is a new topic, and I don't expect you to read the report, I don't suppose you're particularly interested. However it will be illuminating to see what you say in future if Snyder is either forced out and/or faces criminal charges. Especially given your tendency to place total blame, whenever possible, on the President or Hillary Clinton for anything that goes on anywhere that is problematic, it's noticeable how, in the case of Flint, you're perfectly comfortable with the idea that there might be multiple factors involved.
Your life seems to be filled with a series of grudges that you need to constantly reference and try to "get even" for.
Not at all.. I just feel if someone is going to bitch and moan at a person with a -R after their name, that they should bitch and moan at a person with a -D after their name for the exact same thing..
Michale
What the hell is wrong with Barack Obama?
Why does he not seem to have a clue how to behave when major atrocities happen around the world?
The ISIS terror attacks on Brussels were Belgium’s 9/11.
Belgium is a long-time loyal U.S. ally and fellow member of NATO.
Obama, in his capacity as President of the United States, is supposed to be ‘leader of the free world’ and therefore, de facto, leader of NATO.
That alone should have demanded he immediately abandon his jolly in Cuba, where he is cosying up to a dictatorship, and return to Washington to lead the global response with a powerful statement from the Oval Office.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3508029/PIERS-MORGAN-Twinkle-toes-Obama-demon-tango-comes-reading-public-mood-s-tone-deaf.html#ixzz43qfd3Pho
Like I said.. A moron on Gun Control.. But seems to grasp the PR aspect of terrorism just fine..
You DON'T laugh, dance and drink the night away when a very important ally has just experienced their own 9/11....
You just don't do it...
Michale
You DON'T laugh, dance and drink the night away when a very important ally has just experienced their own 9/11....
ESPECIALLY when there are Americans amongst the wounded.. An American soldier and his entire family were wounded in the attacks..
How does it look that our President is laughing it up with a communist dictator and twerking on the dance floor with a hot Argentinian woman...
It's looks HORRID, that's what it looks like...
Michale
How does it look that our President is laughing it up with a communist dictator and twerking on the dance floor with a hot Argentinian woman...
Yea, I know I know.. I need to get out more.. :D
Michale