Calling Tomorrow's Primary Races
It's time once again to play another installment of our ongoing game of "pick the primary winners." Now, whenever multiple states hold their primaries on the same day, it has become de rigueur for the pundits to slap some cutesy name on it. This started with the granddaddy of all cute primary names, "Super Tuesday" (which was also, confusingly, known as "SEC Tuesday" this year). However, because a lot of states seem to shift around their primary dates each election cycle, new names are constantly being thought up for the new primary groupings. For tomorrow night's primary, the punditocracy seems to have settled on "Acela Tuesday," but for some reason this irks my sensibilities. Maybe it's because I never thought "Acela" was all that cool a name to begin with. It sounds like something a drug company dreamed up to hawk their newest laxative, or something.
Tomorrow night the following states vote: Rhode Island, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Maryland, and Delaware. Now, on strict geographic grounds, you simply can't call this "New England Tuesday" or even "Northeast Tuesday," since the first would exclude the three states south of New York and the second would exclude at least Maryland and Delaware (who are in the Mid-Atlantic region, not the Northeast). The only thing that would really fit would be Atlantic Seaboard Tuesday (purists might argue Pennsylvania isn't covered by this, but the Delaware River means they really should be). However, this might lead the more inventive among the pundit class to start calling it "Atlantic Seaboard States Tuesday," and then decide to just use an acronym to save time. Which is really an undeserved cheap shot, so we're going to reject this altogether and just call it "tomorrow night" to keep things simple.
Before we get to making predictions for these five states, as usual I have to update my own personal stats for the season. Last week, I called both New York races correctly. I even (for once) got the details right on the Republican side, although missed the mark completely in the Democratic race. In my final New York predictions, I said: "Trump in a landslide, with at least 90 delegates when the night is done; and Clinton wins the vote, but only by single digits." Donald Trump did indeed win 90 of New York's 95 Republican delegates (Kasich won five, and Cruz was shut out). But Hillary Clinton beat all expectations by defeating Bernie Sanders with an impressive 16-point margin. Still, I picked both winners correctly, which is what counts. So here are my new overall numbers:
Total correct 2016 Democratic picks: 28 for 37 -- 76%
Total correct 2016 Republican picks: 31 for 41 -- 76%
Total overall correct picks: 59 for 78 -- 76%.
All my stats edged up by a single percent. OK, with that out of the way, lets get on with calling all five races for tomorrow night. The states are presented in alphabetical order, to show no favoritism.
Connecticut
Connecticut's Republican race is pretty easy to call. Trump is going to romp home with a big win. He's at over 50 percent in the polling, and he's got a lead of at least 20 points, so this is a pretty safe bet. The interesting thing about Connecticut (and most other states voting tomorrow) is that John Kasich looks like he's going to take second place, relegating Ted Cruz to a distant third. One recent poll in Connecticut had Cruz at a dismal nine percent (to Trump's 54), although other polls do put Cruz in the teens. No matter what his final total is, though, it's going to be embarrassing for Cruz.
The Democratic race in the Nutmeg State is a lot closer, though. Hillary Clinton leads the three most recent polls, but only by single digits (from two to nine percent). Could this represent a late-breaking surge for Bernie Sanders? It is entirely possible. If Bernie outperforms expectations just a wee bit, he could easily take the state. However, while Bernie has a decent chance in at least three of tomorrow's primary states, I'm going to say he falls short here. Hillary won New York largely by winning New York City and the surrounding suburbs -- and there are a lot of New York suburbs in Connecticut as well. I'm betting her strengths in New York translate well in Connecticut and she emerges with the win -- even if it's a narrow one.
Delaware
Delaware may be the First State, but it is certainly not first in available polling data. Only a single poll even exists to gauge the temperament of Delaware voters, so mostly this one has to be a gut feeling (one poll could always be wrong). On the Republican side, however, it's a much easier call. Donald Trump will crush his opponents in Delaware, and John Kasich may win (a very distant) second place. In the single poll, Trump was up over Kasich by 37 points, and over Cruz by 40 points, so even if the polling is off, it likely won't be off by anywhere near that magnitude.
On the Democratic side, there is a lot more uncertainty. The single poll put Clinton at 45 percent and Sanders at 38 percent, but that leaves a huge amount as "undecided." With 17 percent of the people polled still making up their minds, things could easily go either way. However, if the poll is even close to being accurate, Bernie's still got seven points to make up. Somehow, I just don't think he'll manage to bridge this gap. Granted, Delaware loves personable politicians (it's Joe Biden's home state, after all), but I don't think enough young voters will turn out to put the state into Bernie's column. I feel the least confident of this prediction out of all of tomorrow night's calls, though -- Sanders could easily surprise me here. Still, I think Clinton's edge will hold and she'll get at least a narrow victory here.
Maryland
Maryland doesn't have a whole lot of polling data, but enough exists to make a fairly confident call on both sides. Donald Trump is up by roughly 20 points in the polls, and seems to have a pretty solid lead. Once again, John Kasich looks poised to come in second, although it will likely be a pretty distant second.
On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton also has a solid lead. She's got a double-digit lead over Bernie in the polls, and it will likely hold in the voting as well. The more interesting race in the Democratic primary will be the contest to replace the retiring Senator Barbara Mikulski, which has two strong contenders. Chris Van Hollen is the favored establishment candidate, while Donna Edwards has run a very progressive campaign. I wouldn't equate this race to the Sanders/Clinton campaign, but it does have the same establishment-versus-progressive flavor. I personally got the chance to hear Edwards speak last summer, and came away very impressed. She's a real fireball on the stump, but it may not be enough to overcome the establishment edge Van Hollen enjoys. Polling for this race was neck-and-neck last month, but recently Van Hollen seems to be pulling away. There is still the possibility of an upset here, but right now Van Hollen has the late-breaking momentum.
Pennsylvania
In terms of delegates, Pennsylvania is the big prize tomorrow night. Because of this, it also has had the most polling data available. However, the trendlines are pretty clear on both sides. Donald Trump will likely win big here, although he won't pick up all that many delegates by doing so. Pennsylvania Republicans have a rather arcane process for delegate selection and their unpledged delegates outnumber the pledged delegates to be awarded tomorrow night. So Ted Cruz could wind up with more delegates, when the dust settles. Trump, however, will dominate the vote totals. Interestingly, this is the only state to vote tomorrow where Ted Cruz is polling in second place. He doesn't have a large edge over Kasich, but please remember that this state sent Rick Santorum to the Senate, so it would seem to be friendlier territory for Cruz. No matter how the race for second turns out, though, Trump will easily win the vote.
Hillary Clinton doesn't have as large a lead among Democrats as Trump holds among Republicans, but it will likely be big enough to assure her victory in the Keystone State. Some polls put Bernie Sanders within ten points of Hillary, but there just hasn't been any late-breaking surge towards Bernie or away from Hillary. So the safe bet is that the polling holds true and Hillary wins the state by a pretty comfortable margin. Pennsylvania, like Maryland, will also have a hard-fought Senate primary for Democrats, pitting Joe Sestak against Katie McGinty in a battle between an establishment Democrat (McGinty) and a candidate the party tried to take down (Sestak). The polls are very close, so it could really go either way.
Rhode Island
The nation's smallest state will also vote tomorrow night. Not a whole lot of polling exists here, but it's pretty clear on the Republican side. Donald Trump will sail to victory here, with a huge margin. John Kasich looks to take second, with Cruz far behind.
The Democratic race, however, is nothing but a coin flip, at this point. Only two polls were released this month, and they contradict each other. One had Clinton up by nine (43-34) and one had Sanders up by four (49-45). That's about as close as you can get, with only two polls to go on. So I'm going to go with my gut on this one and say that Bernie pulls out a win. If he really is seeing late momentum here, then he's got a good chance to beat Clinton -- the best chance of the three states he even has a shot at winning, in fact. I could be wrong, and I have no idea what the margins will be, but I'm going to go ahead and call Rhode Island for Sanders. If he wins here but nowhere else, it'll kind of be a consolation prize, but then I could always be wrong about Delaware and Connecticut, too.
So, to sum up, Donald Trump is about to have another very good night tomorrow night. No matter how many delegates he picks up, he's going to sweep the board on the Republican side and win all five states. Nobody's even going to come close to beating him, in fact. Kasich, surprisingly, will pick up four second-place finishes, while Cruz ekes out second in Pennsylvania. On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton will easily win Pennsylvania and Maryland and also win closer races in Delaware and Connecticut. Bernie picks up Rhode Island, denying Clinton the sweep. Those are my predictions, but (as always) if you think I'm way off base then I'd love to hear your predictions in the comments.
[Previous states' picks:]
[AK (D)] [AK (R)] [AL] [AR] [AZ] [CO (D)] [FL] [GA] [HI (D)] [HI (R)] [IA] [ID (D)] [ID (R)] [IL] [KS] [KY (R)] [LA] [MA] [ME] [MI] [MN] [MO] [MS] [NC] [NE (D)] [NH] [NV (D)] [NV (R)] [NY] [OH] [OK] [SC (D)] [SC (R)] [TN] [TX] [UT] [VA] [VT] [WA (D)] [WI] [WY (D)] [American Samoa (D)] [American Samoa (R)] [Puerto Rico (R)] [Democrats Abroad (D)]
-- Chris Weigant
Cross-posted at The Huffington Post
Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant
Today's anecdote: White man, mid-40's, weeding the grass growing up between the bricks in his front yard walkway.
What do you think of the election season so far?
"I think its been crazy. I'm not a Trump person -- I think he's a bonehead. Now the other guys...the other guys...
I said "Sanders? Cruz? Kasich?"
"Sanders. I like Sanders. I think I like what he stands for."
CW -
Totally agree with your predictions.
But I have a question: why do different outlets all have different delegate counts? Why is it so hard to get accurate figures? I'd really like to know the state of play but it's well nigh impossible to crunch the figures when everyone has such a vastly different idea of what they are!
Drudge has a totally good idea for a name for this Tuesday...
ELIMINATION TUESDAY
It's likely that Kasich, Cruz and Sanders will be kicked to the curb...
Leaving Clinton and Trump as the nominee...
Which should scare the crap outta ya'all because polls have shown that the distance Clinton had over Trump has all but disappeared, leaving them neck and neck... Some polls even show Trump winning..
And that's WITHOUT FBI Director Comey's impending recommendation...
President Trump is inching closer and closer to reality, my friends... :D
Michale
Once again, I think The Caped Prognosticator is on target. Trumps seems likely to sweep all of these states which he would almost certainly lose in Nov. The question is only if he will pick up enough delegates to claim a majority, which is probably a phantom given the arcane rules of the various GOP components. The Cruz/
Kasich Alliance seems to have melted like a vampire exposed to sunlight. Why am i thinking Vandalay industries?
Bernie may pick up some wins
Trumps seems likely to sweep all of these states which he would almost certainly lose in Nov.
Considering the fact that Clinton's negatives (even without the FBI recommendation) are close to that of Trump's, claiming that Trump will "almost certainly lose" those states is more wishful thinking than fact based... :D
The Cruz/Kasich Alliance seems to have melted like a vampire exposed to sunlight.
Yea... Vaporware... Nothing but wishful thinking on the part of Cruz....
Michale
As if ya'all didn't have ENOUGH to worry about.. :D
Exclusive Data Analysis: Democrat Turnout Collapses Down More Than 4.5 Million, Nearly 20 Percent In 2016 Versus 2008
http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/04/26/exclusive-data-analysis-democrat-turnout-collapses-4-5-million-nearly-20-percent-2016-versus-2008/
Now, of course, you will pooh-pooh the source.. I would, in ya'all's place..
But the data is pretty compelling...
Democrats are going to have a turnout problem.. Thanx, in a large part, to Clinton's negative ratings...
Michale
My version of Paula's Anecdote:
Cycling home from work (17 miles), stopped for a beer at the Mexican Restaurant with the great 4:30pm to 6:30pm happy hour.
Usual cast of characters (I stop there once per month or so) aren't there, the whole bar taken over by off duty cops.
I sit in the middle of the group at the only open stool. I'm about as white as you can be - at a KKK xmas party people would point me out as the 'white guy over there'. I fit in fine.
Shop talk, then a joke about the lack of diversity in this town, "but that is why we are here - right?". Shortly later the owner shouts in Spanish back into the kitchen after somebody orders nachos "Hey, speak English". This is in a Mexican Restaurant, remember.
My hope is fulfilled - TV news has something political, and a few comments fly - "none of these guys are going to beat Trump", "he's the only one who knows business".
Remember, Unions and the Democrats have been really good to these guys (most will retire after 25 years with a $100K+ pension, index linked - I have a few cop friends), but they all want Trump.
Primary turnout and the General Election implications (i.e. Breitbart's "Exclusive Data Analysis" which, being Breitbart of course, isn't even true - the 538 did this last month):
Net net - there is no correlation. This might be too much of a dose of reality for anybody living in their comfort bubble, but here are the facts:
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/primary-turnout-means-nothing-for-the-general-election/
Neil,
Net net - there is no correlation. This might be too much of a dose of reality for anybody living in their comfort bubble, but here are the facts:
Primary turnout never meant anything in previous elections..
This election is unlike any election to date...
I am willing to (T-Shirt) wager that low Democrat turnout in the primary will equal low Democrat turnout in the general...
Usual cast of characters (I stop there once per month or so) aren't there, the whole bar taken over by off duty cops.
You had me at "cops"!! :D
Michale
This election is unlike any election to date...
really? if so, then why are you predicting the outcome? why is anybody? if there is a lack of precedent upon which to base predictions, then there can be no valid predictions - in which case your initial presumption, whatever it might have been, must also be meaningless.
JL
Cruz/Kasich just need a second ballot, and the game is on for them.
It looks like they will get it unless Trump starts doing a better job working the delegates, particularly in PA where there are so many superdelegates.
In the People's Republic of Hand-Wringing where I live Trump is the perfect way for both of the county's Republicans to annoy the hordes of horse-riding 'concerned'. Hell, I'm almost ready to vote for the vulgar little man just to annoy them (I won't).
Primary turnout never meant anything in previous elections..
This election is unlike any election to date...
The most scary words in the investment industry: "This time it is different."
It never is. Reality pops the bubble being justified by these words time and time again.
Basically it would be impossible to determine if this is an exceptional election, because there is no such thing as an exceptional election when judged from a primary/general turnout - it is 50-50.
Remember, Unions and the Democrats have been really good to these guys (most will retire after 25 years with a $100K+ pension, index linked - I have a few cop friends),
Which doesn't mean dick...
"Lemme tell you something about those skills, slick. As of right now, they mean precisely dick.."
-Agent K, MEN IN BLACK
:D
.... when stacked up against the militant, horrendous and unfair attacks leveled by the Left Wingery against LEOs of all ranks and stature...
Michale
The most scary words in the investment industry: "This time it is different."
It never is. Reality pops the bubble being justified by these words time and time again.
Basically it would be impossible to determine if this is an exceptional election, because there is no such thing as an exceptional election when judged from a primary/general turnout - it is 50-50.
Which is what makes the bet so much fun..
Who's gonna win!?? Who knows!!!
"This is exciting!!"
-Scotty, STAR TREK 90210
:D
Michale
really? if so, then why are you predicting the outcome?
Making predictions based on the very unique current circumstances...
Never before has a major Democrat Candidate faced an all but assured indictment for felony violations of the Espionage Act...
Never before has a candidate so far outside the (BOTH) Party Mainstream has stood on the precipice of a major Party nomination...
Anyone who says this is normal run-o-the-mill politics is deluding themselves...
Michale
Remember, Unions and the Democrats have been really good to these guys (most will retire after 25 years with a $100K+ pension, index linked - I have a few cop friends),
Which doesn't mean dick...
It does mean dick. Here is why. The reason that Republicans win in blue states is to take on the public unions that are out of control - impossible to fire bad employees (teachers, cops, etc.), defined benefit pensions that are predicted to bankrupt many small towns (and larger ones - Stockton. Vallejo, etc.).
The unions of course cling to the democrats who support the status quo.
These nimrods at the bar are voting their gut, not their brain, or their pocket book. I'll bet the retired fire, teachers and cops in Stockton and Vallejo will be voting for Trump.
'll bet the retired fire, teachers and cops in Stockton and Vallejo will be voting for Trump.
Should read:
'll bet the retired fire, teachers and cops in Stockton and Vallejo will not be voting for Trump.
Never before has a candidate so far outside the (BOTH) Party Mainstream has stood on the precipice of a major Party nomination...
Tortured syntax, I know.. But ya'all get the idea... :D
"Well he don't know talkin' good like me and you.."
-Rocket, GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY
:D
Michale
Which is what makes the bet so much fun..
Who's gonna win!?? Who knows!!!
I have to go to Vegas several times a year on business. Because I live the exact opposite of this sentiment is why I don't lose any money there ;)
Neil,
Re: 16
Any cop will take being able to go home at night over pension/widow benefits any day of the week and twice on Sunday..
Democrats have made cops' jobs infinitely more dangerous..
And nothing stacks up to that...
A Trump administration will RESPECT LEOs...
Not say they act "stupidly" and not call them racist for NO REASON whatsoever....
THAT's what cops are basing their votes on...
Michale
I have to go to Vegas several times a year on business. Because I live the exact opposite of this sentiment is why I don't lose any money there ;)
Nothing ventured, nothing gained... :D
Michale
Having said that.. I am envious..
Never been to Vegas....
Michale
Never before has a candidate so far outside the (BOTH) Party Mainstream has stood on the precipice of a major Party nomination...
This explains the surge in Republican voting. On the democratic side there hasn't been a real challenge to Hillary since super Tuesday - only the Bernie-believers and the press think there is any race left. Also the measurement is against 2008 which was a huge year for democratic turnout (+165%).
THAT's what cops are basing their votes on...
As I said, this is 'gut' voting - 2015 was the safest year for cops in history from a gun violence perspective. The most deadly place for cops is not confronting criminals, but from sitting in the front seat of a cop car.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2015/12/30/its-official-there-never-was-a-war-on-cops/
More often than not, it's a cop's "gut" that keeps them alive..
"Yea, well right now, Mac outranks your gut.."
-Jeff Daniels, SPEED
:D
Michale
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2016/04/26/lets_break_from_identity_politics_together_130389.html
This is why Trump will win and Democrats will lose...
Michale
interesting article. according to harrop, "Trump's magic formula has been to crush a political correctness."
and along with it, every other form of correctness.
factual accuracy? crushed.
consistency? 5 conflicting abortion positions in 3 days.
politeness? destroyed with a sneer.
human decency? laughed at
social decorum? utterly demolished.
fairness? completely eschewed, and the results blamed on china and mexico.
reality? tossed out the window.
respect? AWOL
and when marco rubio finally said, ""I'm not interested in being politically correct, I'm interested in being correct..."
...it was too late. correctness of any kind was gone, lost in the woods. depending on whether you draw the line at full truth or partial, between two and twenty-four percent of trump's statements have been factually correct. morally, ethically and socially, much less so.
JL
respect? AWOL
Respect begets respect..
Has anyone here given Trump any respect??
No...
So why would anyone here have an cause to expect respect FROM Trump??
Michale
interesting article. according to harrop, "Trump's magic formula has been to crush a political correctness."
and along with it, every other form of correctness.
Nope.. Just Political Correctness...
And, apparently, it's working YUUGGGEEEE for Trump... :D
Michale
factual accuracy? crushed.
consistency? 5 conflicting abortion positions in 3 days.
politeness? destroyed with a sneer.
human decency? laughed at
social decorum? utterly demolished.
fairness? completely eschewed, and the results blamed on china and mexico.
reality? tossed out the window.
respect? AWOL
Seems like you are describing ya'all's reaction to Trump, not the other way around... :D
Think about it...
Michale
So why would anyone here have an cause to expect respect FROM Trump??
Because he needs something from us, and we don't need anything from him?
However that is not my formula for respect - I give all people respect by default, but Trump's first words of his political campaign were to call Mexican illegal immigrants rapists - somebody who uses a political tactic like that immediately loses my respect. Voila!
Chris Christie's wife will:
a/ Give Chris hell for making her stand behind the orange bigot
b/ will never be invited on stage again unless the Trump campaign as lost whatever nous they had
c/ will refuse to be there anyway
The look on her face as Trump denigrated women indirectly by saying that women only get where they are because of their sex was hilarious. Chi-raq - what about Chris-raq.
Because he needs something from us, and we don't need anything from him?
You don't???
You don't need a better life?? Less headache and heartache??
However that is not my formula for respect - I give all people respect by default, but Trump's first words of his political campaign were to call Mexican illegal immigrants rapists - somebody who uses a political tactic like that immediately loses my respect. Voila!
The fact that it's, for the most part, true doesn't even enter into your thought process?? :D
But, credit where credit is due.. At least you recognize that it was ILLEGAL immigrants that were the target of Trump's wrath...
Michale
Let's face reality..
The ONLY reason ya'all don't respect Trump is because he has a '-R' after his name..
All the other things are nothing more than convenient excuses...
Michale
The ONLY reason ya'all don't respect Trump is because he has a '-R' after his name..
i didn't respect him when he was a democrat (2001-2009) or a perot-ist (reform party, 1999-2001), so why should him being a republican change my mind? neil's right about one thing; a candidate has to earn a voter's respect, not the other way 'round. trump has through his own words and actions earned the disrespect of many who would otherwise have been inclined to support him.
which wasn't me to begin with. according to derek thompson of the atlantic, "the single best predictor of Trump support in the GOP primary has been the absence of a college degree."
JL
If there were one question to identify a Trump supporter if you knew nothing else about him, what might it be? “Are you a middle-aged white man who hasn’t graduated from college?” might be a good one. But according to a survey from RAND Corporation, there is one that’s even better: Do you feel voiceless?
voters who agreed with the statement “people like me don't have any say about what the government does” were 86.5 percent more likely to prefer Trump. This feeling of powerlessness and voicelessness was a much better predictor of Trump support than age, race, college attainment, income, attitudes towards Muslims, illegal immigrants, or Hispanic identity.
The ONLY reason ya'all don't respect Trump is because he has a '-R' after his name..
i didn't respect him when he was a democrat (2001-2009) or a perot-ist (reform party, 1999-2001), so why should him being a republican change my mind? neil's right about one thing; a candidate has to earn a voter's respect, not the other way 'round. trump has through his own words and actions earned the disrespect of many who would otherwise have been inclined to support him.
which wasn't me to begin with. according to derek thompson of the atlantic, "the single best predictor of Trump support in the GOP primary has been the absence of a college degree."
JL
which wasn't me to begin with. according to derek thompson of the atlantic, "the single best predictor of Trump support in the GOP primary has been the absence of a college degree."
So, people who support Trump are stoopid??
This Thompson guy sounds like a huge bigot who is feasting on sour grapes..
Michale
neil's right about one thing; a candidate has to earn a voter's respect, not the other way 'round.
Agreed..
Michale
So, people who support Trump are stoopid??
not necessarily. although certainly related, college degrees don't necessarily make one smart, and the lack of a college degree doesn't mean one isn't. being bright and educated have some overlap, but aren't the same thing.
This Thompson guy sounds like a huge bigot who is feasting on sour grapes..
judge for yourself:
http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/03/who-are-donald-trumps-supporters-really/471714/
If there were one question to identify a Trump supporter if you knew nothing else about him, what might it be? “Are you a middle-aged white man who hasn’t graduated from college?” might be a good one. But according to a survey from RAND Corporation, there is one that’s even better: Do you feel voiceless?
And THERE that you have it..
Trump's popularity is not based on education, race, financial status, gender or anything else that fuels the Left Wingery...
Trump's popularity is based on one simple premise...
Are you mad as hell and aren't going to take it anymore??
Michale
http://nypost.com/2016/04/27/donald-trump-could-amass-most-primary-votes-in-gop-history/
Michale