The End Of An Exhausting Primary Season
For the first time, I am writing a column which is designed to be updated, perhaps later tonight or perhaps even tomorrow. Because today is the end of the primary road for 2016, so while I'd like to take a nostalgic look back at the entire primary season, I'm also going to eventually update my stats to provide the final 2016 numbers on how well I picked all the primary races.
A quick overview is necessary before I post this year's stats (the section which will be updated), for comparison. The first time I publicly called all the primaries was in the 2008 race, which held plenty of excitement on both sides of the aisle. In my final column in the series, my numbers ended up at:
[Final 2008 Primary Pick Stats]
Total correct 2008 Democratic picks: 43 for 60 -- 72%
Total correct 2008 Republican picks: 37 for 50 -- 74%
Total overall correct picks: 80 for 110 -- 73%.
In 2012, of course, there was only one primary race, as the Democrats had a sitting president to nominate. The 2012 Republican contest was a pretty wild one, however, which provided plenty of uncertainties and wild poll swings. My final 2012 number for the Republican race (as reported in the final column of the series for that year):
[Final 2012 Primary Pick Stats]
Total correct 2012 Republican picks: 41 for 60 -- 68%.
Obviously, I did worse in my 2012 picks than in 2008, not even reaching 7 in 10 correct. With that context, here are my final 2016 numbers (note: these numbers have now been updated to reflect my record from Tuesday -- where I called only 3 of 6 races correctly):
[Final 2016 Primary Pick Stats]
Total correct 2016 Democratic picks: 38 for 52 -- 73%
Total correct 2016 Republican picks: 37 for 47 -- 79%
Total overall correct picks: 75 for 99 -- 76%.
Looks like I'm improving in the prediction business, especially that Republican number, where I almost hit 8 out of 10 correct. But enough raw statistics, let's take a look at how we got here.
On the Democratic side, polling is close, and the results are incredibly close, as Hillary Clinton wins her first razor-thin victory over Bernie Sanders (there would be others to come), by a margin of only 0.3 percent. Martin O'Malley, after pulling in only 0.5 percent, drops out of the race. He joined Jim Webb, Lincoln Chafee, and Lawrence Lessig, who had dropped out of the race before the voting even began. This left a clear two-way race on the Democratic side.
On the Republican side, a whopping 17 people were once in the race, but before the voting begins (in order), the following candidates have already dropped out: Rick Perry, Scott Walker, Bobby Jindal, Lindsey Graham, and George Pataki. This still leaves a round dozen in the field, and the results show a tight three-way race between Ted Cruz (28 percent), Donald Trump (24) and Marco Rubio (23). Indeed, other than one candidate winning his home state as a "favorite son," no other Republican would win a single primary victory other than these three. Three more candidates throw in the towel after Iowa: Mike Huckabee, Rand Paul, and Rick Santorum.
Bernie Sanders, hailing as he did from neighboring state Vermont, absolutely cleaned up in New Hampshire, winning a lopsided 61-38 percent victory over Hillary Clinton. The news media starts taking Bernie a little more seriously after this blowout result, it's worth mentioning.
On the Republican side, New Hampshire was supposed to be where the "establishment" candidate emerged to eventually take down the radical extremist (Ted Cruz) and downright crazy (Donald Trump) candidates. That was the plan, at any rate, but Marco Rubio had a rather spectacular meltdown on a debate stage, and Jeb Bush never got any traction at all.
When the dust settled, Donald Trump won a whopping big victory in the Granite State, with 35 percent of the vote. The news media begin to treat Trump's candidacy as reality rather than the hilarious joke they'd all been assuring themselves it was -- but only slightly (indeed, many would continue to wrongly assume "Trump can't win" for months afterwards). John Kasich had one of his two moments in the sun, as he came in a distant second place with 16 percent of the vote, with Cruz (12) edging out Bush (11) and Rubio (11) for third place.
Carly Fiorina, Chris Christie, and Jim Gilmore drop out of the race immediately after New Hampshire, leaving only six candidates left on the Republican side.
2/17 - Nevada (D) and South Carolina (R)
Don't ask me why, but these two states decided to complicate things by holding their primaries a week apart. First up were Nevada Democrats and South Carolina Republicans.
In Nevada, Hillary Clinton won a fairly comfortable 53-to-47 victory, although there were dark mutterings from Bernie's side over how Harry Reid had inserted himself into the race in the final days.
But the real stunner was on the Republican side, as Donald Trump won another commanding victory, and swept up all of South Carolina's delegates. Trump had 33 percent, leading some in the media to (incorrectly) state that Trump's support would never go higher than roughly a third of the primary electorate. But it was certainly enough to beat the next two in line, who wound up in a virtual tie. Marco Rubio edged out Ted Cruz by 0.2 points, which he claimed was a victory (but which also led many to wonder which state Rubio could actually win). But the biggest bombshell to come out of the South Carolina voting was Jeb Bush dropping out -- a stunning development, seeing as how he had spent more money than everyone else combined, to wind up with only eight percent of the vote. This left only five candidates in the race.
A personal note -- my own predictions, to this point, had been a pretty dismal 50 percent on both sides, which is the equivalent of a coin toss.
2/23 - Nevada (R) and South Carolina (D)
One week later, the two states reversed their partisan schedule. On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton would chalk up the first in a string of very lopsided wins all across the South, crushing Bernie by a whopping 73 to 26 percent -- a margin of almost 50 points.
The Republican race wasn't quite as uneven, but Donald Trump scored a big win, corralling 46 percent of the Nevada caucus vote, smashing all those predictions that he couldn't even get above one-third of the vote. Trailing far behind were Rubio (24 percent) and Cruz (21).
2/29 - Super Tuesday (SEC Tuesday)
Heading into Super Tuesday (or "SEC Tuesday" as some called it), Hillary Clinton had two clear advantages: she had won three out of the first four states, and the list of states voting was definitely in her favor (with lots of Southern states). States voting in this year's Super Tuesday contest: Alabama, Alaska (R), Arkansas, Colorado (D), Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, and Virginia.
When the results were in, Bernie had picked up four states, some by rather hefty margins. Here are the states Bernie won on Super Tuesday, with the percent of the vote he gained in each: Colorado (59), Minnesota (61), Oklahoma (52), and Vermont (86). But Hillary would be the big winner of the night, sweeping the South and even winning a close race in a state next door to Bernie's home state. Here are Hillary's Super Tuesday wins, with the vote percentage she picked up in each: Alabama (78), Arkansas (66), Georgia (71), Massachusetts (50), Tennessee (66), Texas (65), and Virginia (64). Clinton also picked up American Samoa, giving her eight wins overall to Bernie's four. The calls for Bernie to drop out of the race began in earnest, but Sanders was just getting started, really.
On the Republican side, Trump also entered with three wins out of the first four, but many had yet to take him seriously, even at this point. Trump cemented his frontrunner status on Super Tuesday, winning seven states (Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Massachusetts, Tennessee, Vermont, and Virginia). His most impressive victory of the night was likely Massachusetts, where he managed 49 percent -- which led some in the media to (again, wrongly) predict he could never top 50 percent in a primary. Ted Cruz was the other winner of the night, as he clearly became the only other viable candidate in the Republican field, winning three more states (Alaska, Oklahoma, and his home state of Texas) -- but this was a disappointment to him, since he was expected to clean up in the Bible Belt with his "family values" and religion-based campaign. Marco Rubio had one of only two shining moments in the sun, when he won what would become his only state (he would later win Puerto Rico as well) -- Minnesota. John Kasich managed a close second in Vermont (30 percent to Trump's 33). Ben Carson finally realized it was over (he was the only candidate to ever best Trump in nationwide polling, briefly, but his numbers had collapsed months ago when it became apparent that his foreign policy knowledge was non-existent). This left only four candidates in the race.
My own numbers improved by calling 11 out of 12 right on the Democratic side (which put me at 81 percent!) and only missing three on the Republican side (I called everything but Texas for Trump).
3/5, 3/6 - Kansas, Kentucky (R), Louisiana, Nebraska (D), Maine
The first round of weekend voting happened almost immediately after Super Tuesday, and on the Democratic side, Bernie staged the first of his comebacks. Bernie showed strength in Plains and New England states, winning the caucuses in Kansas, Nebraska, and Maine by wide margins. Hillary continued her dominance of the South by picking up Louisiana. This caught Bernie up considerably, giving him a total of eight states won to Clinton's eleven.
On the Republican side, Ted Cruz and Donald Trump split with two state victories each, with Trump winning Kentucky and Louisiana, while Cruz picked up Kansas and Maine. Neither Rubio nor Kasich even managed to come in second in any of these contests, although Rubio did pick up his only other win in Puerto Rico. It became increasingly a two-man race, even if Rubio (and, later, Kasich) refused to admit this reality.
3/8 - Hawai'i (R), Idaho (R), Michigan, Mississippi
This was the biggest upset of all for Bernie Sanders, as all the polling incorrectly showed Hillary with a strong lead, after misleadingly claiming Sanders had been "against the auto bailout" (which is a big deal in Michigan, of course). But when the votes were counted, Bernie edged out Hillary by almost a point and a half. This stunned the media, who (once again) was forced to start taking Bernie's campaign a lot more seriously. Clinton, however, didn't come away empty-handed, as she picked up another lopsided win (over a 65-point margin!) in Mississippi. Bernie would also win the Democrats Abroad vote, but the results weren't announced until weeks later.
On the Republican side, Trump continued to dominate, easily picking up Hawai'i, Michigan, and Mississippi, while Ted Cruz won in Idaho's caucus. This left the overall total among states at: Trump with 15 states, Cruz with 7, and Rubio with only one. It was increasingly apparent that not only was Ted Cruz the only candidate with a chance to beat Trump, he only had about half the strength Trump did. The media finally (somewhere around this period) finally woke up to this fact.
Two footnotes are worth mentioning here, as Ted Cruz later picked up Wyoming, and Marco Rubio would win his final contest in Washington, D.C. -- but I failed to make predictions in either contest (sorry about all the missed primaries and caucuses, folks!).
I don't remember it being called this at the time, but the media in hindsight seems to have dubbed this "Super Tuesday II," so we're just going with that for now. Five very key states voted together: Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina, and Ohio. I got caught up in a burst of optimism for Bernie, and predicted he'd win three states, but I turned out to be completely wrong, as Clinton ran the tables. Illinois was very close, and wasn't called until the very end, and Missouri was a razor-thin victory margin (0.2 percent), but Clinton emerged victorious in all five states. This brought the overall total up to 17 for Hillary to Bernie's 9 states. The pundits all called Bernie's campaign dead in the water, once again.
On the Republican side, Donald Trump easily picked up three states (Florida, Illinois, North Carolina), and also managed the same slim (0.2 percent) victory margin in Missouri that Hillary did. Kasich had his best night of the entire campaign, easily winning his home state of Ohio. Trump was also pulling away in the total of states won, with 19 to only seven for Ted Cruz (and only one for Rubio and Kasich). Super Tuesday II was a big win for the frontrunners on both sides.
Florida was Rubio's last stand. Before the voting, Rubio and Kasich tried to strike a deal where they would urge their supporters to vote for the other guy in the state it would help the most. Rubio did tell his supporters in Ohio to vote for Kasich, but Kasich refused to return the favor in Florida. For whatever reason, Rubio crumbled in his home state, losing every county but one to Trump. He immediately dropped out of the race, knowing he had no path to victory left if he couldn't even win his home state.
3/22 - Arizona, Idaho (D), Utah
Arizona's voting was a fiasco, with obvious vote-suppression attempts by a Republican official (closing down something like 80 percent of the polling sites, for instance). This left some very bad feelings in the Bernie Sanders camp, it should be noted. But Hillary Clinton comfortably won the state, while Bernie would begin a streak by overwhelmingly (with almost 80 percent of the vote) winning the caucuses in Utah and Idaho.
On the Republican side, Donald Trump would pick up Arizona easily (winning all 58 delegates), but Ted Cruz would crush him in Utah (Trump's ongoing badmouthing of Mitt Romney didn't do him any good here). Calls for John Kasich to exit the race (to give Cruz a clear shot at Trump) rose in volume from party bigwigs. Republican officials also began holding their nose and endorsing Cruz in a big way -- a man they all personally hated, it should be noted. But he was the only chance left to stop the Trump juggernaut, leaving them with no other choice.
Trump would also win North Dakota (a race I neglected to call), and my personal score dropped to just about 70 percent on both sides of the aisle.
3/26 - Alaska (D), Hawai'i (D), Washington (D)
Democrats caucused over the weekend in three states. Bernie continued his dominance of the Western caucuses, and won 70 to 80 percent of the vote in all three. Not much more to say about this one -- Bernie ups his total to 14 states to Hillary's 18.
4/5 - Wisconsin, 4/9 - Wyoming (D)
This is getting long, so I'm going to try to whip through these a little quicker here. Wisconsin went for Bernie Sanders and Ted Cruz, and Bernie also wins the Wyoming caucuses. Bernie pulls closer to Hillary in states won, 16 to her 18. Trump also picks up Wyoming and Colorado, neither of which I predicted. My own stats hit 75 percent, across the board.
Trump and Clinton are both home-state candidates in New York, and they both easily cruised to victory. Bernie supporters again complained about irregularities in the voting, it's worth noting.
4/26 - Atlantic Seaboard Tuesday (Acela Tuesday, Super Tuesday III)
This was the primary with the most cute names, but I stuck with my choice of "Atlantic Seaboard Tuesday" while others went with "Acela Tuesday" or "Super Tuesday III." Five states voted, Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island. This was a big night for both frontrunners, as Hillary Clinton easily picked up every state but Rhode Island, while Trump swept all five states. At this point, it became impossible for either Cruz or Kasich to win the nomination on the first ballot, so their only hope was to also deny Trump enough delegates to do so and force an open convention.
Personally, I had my best night for predictions of the entire season, calling all five races correctly on both sides. This pushed my score on the Democratic side up to 79 percent, which I believe was its high point of the whole season.
This was a big night, as the Republican race ended. Ted Cruz tried a "hail Mary" by announcing he'd name Carly Fiorina as his vice presidential running mate and he picked up some crucial endorsements from Indiana Republicans, but none of it did any good, as Trump easily won with 53 percent of the vote. Cruz surprised many by immediately withdrawing from the race, and Kasich followed suit the next day. In the end, Trump only lost 11 states -- nine to Cruz, and one each to Kasich and Rubio. This ended our "call the primaries" contest for Republicans, with a final score of 37 correct for 47 races called, or 79 percent, which is my best final showing for any of these contests so far.
Bernie Sanders won a solid victory in Indiana, beating Clinton by five points. This brought him up to 18 states won to Clinton's 23.
For the rest of this recap, all races called were for Democrats only. Bernie Sanders wins the West Virginia caucuses, after Hillary's comments on "putting miners out of work" resonated deeply in coal country.
And finally, the last state contests happened three weeks ago, as Kentucky and Oregon both held their Democratic primaries. Bernie easily picked up Oregon, and almost won Kentucky as well, losing in the end by less than 2,000 votes (0.5 percent) to Hillary Clinton.
Final score before tonight's results: Hillary has now won 24 states and four non-state contests (Guam, Northern Marianas, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands). Bernie has won 20 states, and one external contest (Democrats Abroad). We've got six states left to vote (well, to be honest, I just heard New Jersey went for Clinton on the news, as I write this...), as well as the District of Columbia bringing up the rear, next week.
So that's it for our wrap-up. It has been a hard-fought contest on both sides of the aisle, with surprising strength for outsider candidates in both the Republican and Democratic parties. Remember, a year ago everyone was predicting the inevitability of Hillary Clinton and Jeb Bush! Bush obviously fell far short, and Trump deeply shocked the inside-the-Beltway crowd with his success. Bernie Sanders was never supposed to get this far, and was considered (long after he actually began winning states) as nothing more than a fringe or vanity candidate by the press.
Again, this is too long as it is, and I want to go vote (!) and watch the returns come in, so I have no real conclusion or final thoughts. It's been a long, hard road, but it's finally over. My feeling, at this point, is one of relief, to be perfectly honest.
-- Chris Weigant
Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant
Note:
I'm off to vote, so I'll see everyone in a bit...
-CW
New Jersey puts Hillary over the line.
Experiencing History.
And amazing irony.
Yay!
And I watched her speech.
Loved it. Made me tear up.
But feeling sad for Bernie.
voted in NJ today; this is the first i'm reading. how is it all coming together?
OK, finally some time to sit down and watch returns. NJ, no surprise, goes for Hillary in a big way.
Bernie wins ND - again, no surprise.
Hillary wins NM, so I guess the polls were right there (and I was wrong).
SD - over 90 % in, no call yet. Looks like a geographical thing -- Hillary won the east, Bernie's winning the west. I think all the east is in a different time zone, because they're all in. Almost all precincts left are in the west, and Bernie's only down by 1,400 votes, so he's still got a chance.
MT - very early, only 5% in, Hill up less than 1000 votes.
CA - polls just closed, only 7% in with Hill in big lead. But it's early days, no call yet.
More later...
-CW
SD - not looking great for Bernie, running out of counties left to report. 95% in, Hill up by 1200.
MT - margin down to 800, 6% in.
CA - big lead for Hillary, over 300K votes. However, this could mean a lot of mail-in votes for her. Bernie voters had ballot problems with the mail-in (forgot to request "Dem" ballot) so I saw a lot of them in person at the polls requesting a ballot with Bernie's name on it. So this big lead may dwindle over time (only 8% in).
-CW
Just went to store, while I was away, they called SD for Clinton. So far, tonight, not doing all that great, only 2-for-4...
-CW
SOUTH DAKOTA
With 99% of the vote counted, SD has been won by Clinton 51.2 - 48.8 with the pledged delegates equally divided: 10 to each candidate.
I am with you on this, Paula. I am thrilled to see this primary come to an end! While I didn't think Bernie really had a chance to pull this off (I don't think even Bernie believed it at first), I was very excited to see how much he was able to shift the political conversation on what really matters to people this election. Even though the contest got a little heated towards the very end, Clinton should be extremely grateful that Bernie refused to use the ongoing FBI investigation into the email servers against her.
I consider Bernie's, “The American people are sick and tired of hearing about your damn emails,” to be the most honorable act I have ever witnessed from a politician during a campaign. It might not have been the smartest move politically, but it was definitely the classiest.
Been bouncing around -- Nate Silver had a post up: "Democrats want this to be Over" -- I think he's right. I think the horribleness of Trump was worrying a lot of Dems, and when Hillary did her kick-ass speech a lot of Dems decided she could handle the Donald and they went for her. She's having a big night tonight -- winning unexpectedly in SD and NM, etc. Maybe winning CA, or, if she loses, losing close.
Obviously Bernie backers wanted him to hang in to the convention but I don't think people on the fence like the idea. "Contested Convention" was a scary thought.
[10] Listen: Agreed. Bernie's emails comment was the best!
Hillary made several very positive comments about Bernie and his campaign in her speech. Hopefully fences will be swiftly mended.
@listen,
agreed completely. bernie didn't pull punches on valid issues, but he abjectly refused to swim in the muck, and for this he deserves all the credit in the world.
JL
MONTANA
With 17% counted, Bernie has taken the lead 48.3 - 47.0
Sanders takes the lead in MT! Up 1000+ votes with 30%...
-CW
Whoops! Company! Hello, everyone!
I seem to be having internet problems, my feed has slowed down to a crawl. tonight of all nights! Boo!
Anyway, glad to see some other people chiming in. I agree about Bernie's email comment, too...
-CW
With 41% in, Bernie up 1600 in MT. Clinton up by 400K in CA again, but still less than 20% in...
-CW
Whoa - big jump, Bernie up 3200 with 43% in (MT)...
Another county heard from!
:-)
-CW
with a third of the vote in, clinton up 400,000 votes. gonna be tough for bernie to overcome that.
in california, that is.
Bernie widens lead in MT, to almost 6K. 59% in...
CA still holding at 400K up for Hillary...
-CW
nypoet22 -
My numbers say only 25% in... (in CA)
-CW
Hillary Clinton needs only 109 more to reach the threshold of 2026 pledged delegates (50%+1). It's clear now that she will exceed that threshold and go to the convention with majorities in both pledged delegates and super delegates.
OK, you're right, mine caught up to 33% and it's still 400K...
Her margin seems to be holding, but we've still got a long way to go... I was convinced Bernie won IL, until the last 10% was counted... it all depends who gets counted first and who gets counted last...
-CW
MT called for Sanders while I went out to gas the car up...
Well, that means at worst I'll get at least 3-for-6 tonight... that makes me feel a little better about my last bout of Bernie optimism...
:-)
-CW
Oh, almost forgot... this one's for Michale:
There's a Republican running for Senate out here named (no lie) "Duf" (forget his last name). Cue Homer Simpson: "I'm voting for DuffMan! Oooh yeah!"
Heh.
He won't even make it to the Nov. ballot, so I had to do that joke now...
-CW
OK, I'm about to go to bed. I now have a record of 3 right out of 5, but it's looking like that'll have to be 3-for-6 when the night's done.
CA has been remarkably stable in absolute numbers -- from very early on until right now, Hillary has maintained exactly the same 400K vote lead. I fully expect to wake up tomorrow and learn that she held something close to this lead until the very end, denying Bernie the CA victory he so wanted. As I write this, 63% of the vote is in, and the 400K buffer is holding firm.
Well, it's been a heckuva race, and for all the wrong calls I've made, it certainly has been an enjoyable one. I promise, I'll update this article when I awake tomorrow, to reflect my final score. My Dem average is reflective of the fact that the early races only had two candidates (unlike in 2008) so I was only calling the winner from the very beginning. This is why the total of "races called" is down this year, I should mention, because until it becomes a two-person race, I've always counted my picks for 1st, 2nd, and 3rd place, but this year only counted first for the whole Dem season (kind of cheating to count second in a two-person race).
In any case, more tomorrow when I'm more awake. I hereby raise my glass (well, beer bottle, technically...) to the 2016 primary race in a toast... you exhausted me, but you never bored me -- which is high praise indeed!
:-)
-CW
I'm going back to bed.. :(
There's a Republican running for Senate out here named (no lie) "Duf" (forget his last name). Cue Homer Simpson: "I'm voting for DuffMan! Oooh yeah!"
Heh.
Probably the only smile for today.. :^D
Michale
The problem with Bernie's campaign is that, at first, he wasn't running to win..
THAT's why he didn't mention Clinton's illegal, hackable and hacked, insecure, bathroom closet private email server...
Bernie was running to make a point..
It was only when he realized that he actually COULD win is when he started to TRY to win...
So, when all is said and done, Bernie has created millions and millions of Trump voters... :D
Michale
One thing I keep coming back to..
Bernie is NOT a Democrat.. A fact that Hillary made perfectly clear over and over and over again...
Bernie doesn't have ANY obligation to the Democrat Party. Especially in light of how he was treated by said Democrat Party..
Given these facts, what is there to stop Bernie from continuing his campaign as a 3rd Party candidate???
Maybe aligning himself with Jill Stein as has been mentioned??
Does anyone have any logical and rational reasons why this can't or won't happen??
Michale
Thank God, The Primaries are over. It will be Clinton VS Trump, but that's been a near certainty for many weeks. On to the conventions, which could be interesting drama. Third Party candidate? 4th Party candidate? The role of Logic in this political production is a bit part.
The role of Logic in this political production is a bit part.
Actually, the role of Logic (AKA Common Sense) is VERY prevalent in the here and now...
One just has to get rid of the Party Enslavement Blinders (PEB tm) to see it...
:D
I have been saying that Trump could win from day one..
I have been saying that Trump WILL win from about day 60...
Some of us still use logic as it was MEANT to be used, not as a Party propaganda tool....
Michale
Apparently, the betting markets ain't all they are cracked up to be, eh?? :D
Michale
HISTORY! Trump Shatters Republican Primary Vote Record by 1.4 Million Votes
thegatewaypundit.com/2016/06/trump-trumps-wins-historic-race-record-fashion/
California contraction: Hillary loses 30% of votes from 2008
theamericanmirror.com/hillarys-ca-support-falls-30-2008/
It doesn't take a rocket scientist to draw a conclusion from these facts... :D
Michale
Michael said:
THAT's why he didn't mention Clinton's illegal, hackable and hacked, insecure, bathroom closet private email server...
Except that he DID mention it at the very start of their first debate! He made it very clear that he was running his campaign on issues that actually matter to people! So Clinton should have had her email server on the State Dept. or the DOD servers, is that it? Both of which have been hacked? (Not sure how you know that the email server was "insecure" and not "unsecure" Does it have an eating disorder?). And the hacker who claims to have hacked into Clinton's server has always released documents proving he hacked a government's servers in the past...but this time he released nothing.
M-33
The markets give odds, not fixed prophesies.
Clinton was rated a heavy favorite from the git go, 70% or more at Betfair, consistently trending up as the primaries went forward.
Even early in the game, with a dozen Republican prospects Trump had high numbers compared to the rest of the pack. Trump tended to be the market favorite most of this year, over 50% much of the time, in spite of his roller coaster volatility. Betfair was briefly overly optimistic about Rubio, who briefly led Trump, but most of the time, the markets considered Trump the most likely Republican nominee in a crowded field. Favorite, but not an overwhelmingly favorite, and certainly not inevitable.
In summary, the markets are still what they are cracked up to be, about as good as anything else at making the ultimately correct call, but willing to lay out the landscape of uncertainty.
(Not sure how you know that the email server was "insecure" and not "unsecure" Does it have an eating disorder?).
Wow... That's pretty lame, Listen... :D
But yer a fellow SN fan so I'll let it slide.. :D
So Clinton should have had her email server on the State Dept. or the DOD servers, is that it?
No.. CLinton shouldn't have HAD any email server..
THAT's the point...
And the hacker who claims to have hacked into Clinton's server has always released documents proving he hacked a government's servers in the past...but this time he released nothing.
Probably because before he was free and COULD release them then..
But EVERY computer security service queried has said that Guccifer's account was factually accurate...
Michale
The markets give odds, not fixed prophesies.
Yet, at the time, Weigantians hung their hats on these "not fixed prophesies"
And ONE Weigantian is on record as saying that their "odds" were full of shit...
Guess who was the former and guess who was the latter?? :D
*I* was right.. YOUR betting markets were wrong...
That's all I am saying...
In summary, the markets are still what they are cracked up to be,
Except they were completely and unequivocally WRONG about TRUMP at first and *I* was right..
Can't you concede this fact???
Michale
Does anyone have any logical and rational reasons why this can't or won't happen??
Because Bernie is a man of his word?
Because Bernie recognizes how critical it is to prevent Trump from being President.
Because he knows that while he and Hillary disagree on certain issues, for the vast majority their disagreement is more about how far the government should go to help fix the problems. Overall, their positions are not in conflict with one another.
Because the Democrats have recognized that they need his help to move forward with the Party's message -- giving him five seats on the platform committee was the DNC humbling itself in admitting that he has his finger on the nation's pulse much better than they do.
Because he knows firsthand that you have to have help to get anything done as a President! If he didn't realize this, he would have just run as a third party from the start!
Michale wrote:
(Not sure how you know that the email server was "insecure" and not "unsecure" Does it have an eating disorder?).
Wow... That's pretty lame, Listen... :D
I get nailed for using "insecure" when I mean "unsecure" all the time. Couldn't resist finally catching someone else doing it! ;D
UPDATE:
I've updated my final numbers to reflect my 3-for-6 calls from last night, just for everyone's information...
-CW
Listen,
Kudos..
Those ARE very logical and rational reasons why Bernie WON'T go third Party...
You have partially restored my faith in Weigantians... :D
I get nailed for using "insecure" when I mean "unsecure" all the time. Couldn't resist finally catching someone else doing it! ;D
Fair enough.. Who am I to deny you this simple pleasure... :D
I concede your point...:D
Michale
I've updated my final numbers to reflect my 3-for-6 calls from last night, just for everyone's information...
-CW
A record to be proud of.... :D
Michale
Michale [43] -
Thanks. I still think all pundits (all wonky ones, at least) should do this -- publicly post your past record, so people can assess the relative value of your picks!
-CW
Well, if all pundits had even a 10th of your integrity, they would.. :D
Now pardon me while I wipe this brown stuff off my nose...
heh
:D
Michale
In summary, the markets are still what they are cracked up to be,
Except they were completely and unequivocally WRONG about TRUMP at first and *I* was right..
Can't you concede this fact???
Didna think so..
"It's OK, I under stand,
this ain't no never never land.."
-CENTERFOLD, J. Geils Band
:D
Michale