Elizabeth Warren Wows Ohio
Either Elizabeth Warren just made Hillary Clinton's vice-presidential choice a lot harder or a lot easier, depending on how you see her strategic decision-making process and how much chance you think a Clinton/Warren ticket has of becoming reality. Warren appeared onstage with Clinton today and the Massachusetts senator wowed the Ohio crowd, proving without a shadow of a doubt she is unquestionably the best "attack dog" the Democrats have against Donald Trump. But is this enough for Clinton to select Warren as running mate? Or, perhaps is it too much? In other words, is there a danger that Warren could actually upstage the presidential candidate? And even if Hillary knows Warren is the best anti-Trump weapon around, will Clinton's choice ultimately hinge on this criterion or not?
Vice-presidential picks are made for any number of reasons. The selection can be made for geographical reasons (to help the candidate carry a battleground state, for instance), or even to balance one region of the country with another. The choice can be made for demographic balance, such as the selection of Dan Quayle or Sarah Palin (Quayle was young, offsetting George H.W. Bush's age; Palin was female). These are usually framed in terms of balancing the ticket -- shoring up a candidate's weakness by offering a stabilizing factor as a running mate. But sometimes these calculations are ignored and a more personal choice is made. Bill Clinton picked Al Gore in 1992, which surprised many because it was a ticket of two Southerners. Sometimes the decision just boils down to the personal preference of the candidate, no matter what the wonky vote-predictors tell them they should do.
Elizabeth Warren would unbalance the ticket in two major ways, but she'd provide an overwhelming amount of balance on a third, which might make up for it. The selection of Warren would mean the first all-female ticket in American history from a major party. This already worries many Democrats (even staunch Hillary supporters) who are skeptical that the electorate is ready to vote for two women to lead the country. Warren doesn't add anything in the realm of geography, either, as both candidates would hail from the Northeast. In fact, this is actually an argument against choosing Warren, because Massachusetts has a Republican governor who would get to select Warren's temporary replacement (before a special election was held). If this tilts the balance of power in the Senate, even for the first few months of a Clinton presidency, it could hobble her ability to press her agenda at the very start of her term.
But the upside would be an ideological one. No other veep choice would enthuse supporters of Bernie Sanders more than Elizabeth Warren (other than Hillary picking Bernie himself, which is not very likely to happen). Warren would be seen as a big check on Clinton's tendency towards going easy on Wall Street by millions of Bernie voters. Even before Bernie Sanders announced his candidacy, if you'll remember, there was a massive "draft Warren" effort to convince her to launch her own presidential bid. These Warren supporters eventually drifted over into Bernie's camp (after the thousandth time Warren unequivocally said "I'm not running"), so for many of them Warren was actually their first choice. Seeing her on Clinton's ticket would be a big reason for excitement for many, to put it mildly.
The big question that ran through my mind watching today's video footage, however, was whether this might be too much of a good thing for Hillary Clinton to accept. Wildly cheering crowds for the vice-presidential candidate -- which are nowhere near as enthusiastic for the top of the ticket -- can be awkward. John McCain learned this, after seeing Sarah Palin's adoring crowds. If Hillary Clinton did choose Elizabeth Warren with the hope that Warren would provide some enthusiasm, then she'd have to be prepared to assume the role of "being presidential" and by doing so let Warren be the main foil to Donald Trump (with as many crowd-pleasing attack lines as possible). As long as Clinton accepts this from the start, it could work out fine. But if there's any tinge of "Warren's crowds are bigger than Clinton's" (either from disgruntled campaign staff or from the candidate herself), this could lead to some resentment.
The biggest question is whether Hillary Clinton trusts Elizabeth Warren and has the confidence that she could step into the presidency at any time. That's always what the personal part of the selection process boils down to. There have been whispers that Warren and Clinton don't exactly like each other all that much, but now there are counter-rumors that they have personally bonded over being grandmothers together (which sounds suspiciously like a focus-group-tested line, if I ever heard one). Both Clintons have always valued loyalty very highly, and Warren famously was the last female senator to endorse Clinton (at the very end of the primaries, when it essentially made no difference).
The Clinton camp has indicated it is heavily vetting only three candidates at this point (although they leaven this with caveats about looking at a "much longer list"). Warren is one, and the other two are Tim Kaine and Julián Castro. All agree that Castro, currently in President Obama's cabinet, is destined for political stardom in the Democratic Party sooner or later. He would bring two demographic strengths to the ticket: he's young, and he's Latino. He hails from Texas, which is probably not possible for Democrats to pick up (even this year), but he would definitely provide a healthy dose of balance to the ticket. The first woman in the White House might have the first Latino vice president at her side -- that'd be doubling down on the historic nature of this campaign for Democrats.
Then there's Tim Kaine, currently in the Senate but previously Virginia's governor and head of the Democratic National Committee. He is (by his own admission this weekend) "boring." To say he'd be the safe choice is an understatement. He's white, male, a Southerner, and he could virtually guarantee that Virginia's 13 Electoral College votes wind up in the Democratic column. The current governor of Virginia is not only a Democrat, but also a Clinton acolyte, so Kaine's Senate seat replacement wouldn't be a problem. If Clinton chooses Kaine, it will be to "triangulate" the general electorate, in the same way her husband used to so effectively do. Kaine would be seen by moderates, independents, and even Republicans disgusted with Trump as a fairly soothing choice and definitely not some sort of radical candidate. Clinton would be gambling that the Democratic base (including all the Bernie supporters and lots of Latinos) are already sufficiently behind her and need no further enticement to vote for her. Kaine, it almost goes without saying, would never be in danger of upstaging Clinton in front of a crowd.
These are the three choices the Clinton camp has said they're now intensely vetting. One is a populist firebrand who already has millions of nationwide supporters who love her dearly (and fervently) -- and who is already proving she's the best weapon the Democrats have against the Republican nominee. One is a handsome young Latino who is quite likely to run for president himself at some point in the future, and who is also capable of inspiring crowds with his oratory. Either of these choices would be historic in their own way. Then there's a white male from the South who could carry his home state. Kaine is the safest of safe choices, but when he introduces himself to a national politics-watching audience with the admission that he's "boring," he's likely not going to be an inspiring choice or (for that matter) an effective attack dog against a loose-cannon candidate like Donald Trump.
Of course, at this point, none of us knows who Clinton will pick (perhaps this is all a feint, and she'll select a dark horse that nobody's currently paying any attention to?), and nobody knows exactly what she'll be thinking when she does decide. But the pros and cons of the selection calculus of the current shortlist are pretty easy for all to see. Warren's audition today showed she is the most capable person to take the fight to Donald Trump. Nobody else really even comes close. If that's what Hillary is looking for, she really needs to look no further. But Hillary Clinton may have different criteria when making her choice, and other factors may weigh more heavily when she does decide.
-- Chris Weigant
Cross-posted at The Huffington Post
Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant
if i had to bet, i'd say the boring choice. or a different boring choice.
JL
Love E. Warren, but love her right where she is. I think she's terrific for Hillary; I disagree that Hillary needs her. She's an asset, not a requirement. Bernie supporters are already on-board to the tune of 70% (I read yesterday) and more will come and those who won't probably think Warren is a traitor for even thinking of being Veep. IOW they're unreachable.
I think it is terrific Elizabeth is stumping with Hillary and I'm for her as Veep if she really wants to do it. She didn't used to -- maybe she's changed her mind. But I think Hillary will win regardless of who she picks.
I like Tom Perez and Al Franken as possibilities as well.
I think there is one more consideration involved in the selection this year. It's an aspect that perhaps hasn't been taken much into account in the modern era but needs to be a factor in shaping the Democratic Party's future: who will be the next Dem candidate after Clinton's presidency?
It's possible Clinton might choose someone to train as the next president. She'll be aware that 14 of the 43 presidents to date were former VPs and that the best training a future president can get is as VP. That's where age will be a consideration. The ideal (but not a deal-breaker) will be that the prospect be not older than 70 at the end of 16 years (16yrs being = 8yrs VP + 8yrs Prez), ie: not older than 54 this year.
I therefore find it interesting that Castro was brought to Washington DC where he has spent a lot of time with Joe Biden. It appears he may have been in intensive training for the VP slot since 2014.
If Castro is chosen to be the running mate, you can be sure this was an important factor - and the luxury of being able to choose someone to train has never been less of a risk than it is in a year when the opposition is so weak.
Paula,
I agree with you, 100%! I would love if Al Franken were chosen. He has impressed me so much since becoming a Senator as being one of the few people that really listens to the people regarding the issues that are important to them. Never thought that Stuart Smally would be such a good statesman, but he's shown that he's good enough and, dog-gone-it, that people like him!
The problem here, generally speaking, is that people are wowed far too easily.
The right choice would be Franken or Perez. Specifically, whichever one of those two she gets on better with on a personal level (that's really important after the election happens and the real work of governing starts to take place).
The VP is not just a choice to help win an election. The VP needs to be someone you work well with in order to be the Exec Branch.
Given the high probability of a Clinton win over Trump (if he is the nominee), she has a real ability to choose a great VP, who can get some things done as delegated responsibility. Perez would be awesome.
Given the high probability of a Clinton win over Trump (if he is the nominee),
It's funny how you assume that Clinton IS the nominee, but add an "IF" for Trump... :D
Yep, no bias there... :D
Michale
Clinton could choose Mahetma Ghandi for her running mate and it won't matter one wit...
This is a simple election with one issue in the forefront..
If the American people LIKE the direction this country is going, they will vote Clinton..
If the American people DON'T like the direction this country is going, they will vote Trump...
THAT is fact of this election...
And, since upwards of 70% of Americans DON'T like the direction this country is going....????
Well, ya'all can do the math...
Michale
Clinton could choose Mahetma Ghandi for her running mate and it won't matter one wit...
This is a simple election with one issue in the forefront..
If the American people LIKE the direction this country is going, they will vote Clinton..
If the American people DON'T like the direction this country is going, they will vote Trump...
THAT is fact of this election...
And, since upwards of 70% of Americans DON'T like the direction this country is going....????
Well, ya'all can do the math...
Michale
Speak2,
Given the high probability of a Clinton win over Trump (if he is the nominee),
Actually, the "IF" qualifier belongs to Crooked Hillary and not to Donald Trump..
http://sjfm.us/temp/cw-hillary.jpg
It's clear from the facts that Hillary is going to be indicted..
Bernie is simply waiting for the FBI Recommendation To Indict to be made public. That is why Bernie hasn't quit the race..
When the recommendation is handed down to indict Clinton and/or Senior Staff, then it will be Bernie who will step in and be the nominee..
If Biden or anyone else tries to take the nominee from Bernie, Bernie supporters will lose their frakin' minds and you can bet that THAT will guarantee a Trump White House...
You heard it here first..
Michale
It's funny to see ya'all treat Pocahontas as a hero??
She obviously gave up all her integrity to support Clinton..
Pocahontas claims to be against Wall Street's influence in campaigning, yet she supports Hillary who gets tens of millions of dollars from Wall Street..
Pocahontas claims to be against the trade agreements but supports Hillary who pushes those trade agreements..
Apparently, Pocahontas is just just another lame and lying politician who has zero integrity... But we already knew that when she tried to use her race to gain unfair advantage...
Ya'all's journey to the dark side is nearly complete...
Michale
Josh Marshall has a great post about Donald and "loserdom":
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/how-does-it-feel-to-be-losing-so-badly
Ahhhhh
The Left Wingery is all about Donald losing again...
Big Yawn....
The Left has been saying Trump is losing since the day he announced his candidacy..
The Left also said that Britain would never vote to leave the EU...
How many times is the Left going to be wrong this year??? :D
Hell, the Left is giving my SCOTUS predictions a run for their money. And THAT says something... :D
Michale
It is NOT clear that Hillary is going to be indicted at all.
From an article in the Huffington Post:
"After spending more than two years and $7 million, the House Select Committee on Benghazi released a report Tuesday that found — like eight investigations before it — no evidence of wrongdoing by then-Secretary of State Hillary Clinton or other members of the Obama administration.
The report’s lack of any reference to clearly classified material on her email server, however, could be a sign that there is little chance any prosecution could stem from the unusual arrangement."
It is NOT clear that Hillary is going to be indicted at all.
It is to people who understand these issues and are not swayed by a political agenda..
From an article in the Huffington Post:
HuffPoop
'nuff said...
"After spending more than two years and $7 million, the House Select Committee on Benghazi released a report Tuesday that found —
If we were talking about Benghazi, you would have a point..
But we're not, so you don't...
The report’s lack of any reference to clearly classified material on her email server, however, could be a sign that there is little chance any prosecution could stem from the unusual arrangement."
Whatever ya'all have to tell yourselves to make it thru the day.. :D
By all means.. Keep up with the denial.. It's just going to make the downfall all that much sweeter... :D
Michale
From an article in the Huffington Post:
Tell ya what..
When ya'all start accepting BREITBART and LIMBAUGH websites as legitimate references, I'll start accepting HuffPoop...
Deal??? :D
Michale
TRUMP STARES DOWN GLOBALISTS
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_CAMPAIGN_2016?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2016-06-28-14-55-42
Yea... Trump is "losing"... :D
Michale
At least 2 blasts rock Istanbul’s Ataturk Airport, multiple injuries reported
https://www.rt.com/news/348735-explosion-atatukr-reports-injured/
Hillary Clinton is quoted as saying that the attack was caused by a mean youtube video.....
Michale
I therefore find it interesting that Castro was brought to Washington DC where he has spent a lot of time with Joe Biden. It appears he may have been in intensive training for the VP slot since 2014.
Interesting indeed - I didn't know that, but it makes sense - the Democratic Party needs to bring younger politicians into the leadership.
2024 could be Castro vs. Newsome - two great choices for those who lean progressive.
Let's hope the Republicans go with Cruz in 2020 and make it easy again for Clinton, and then keep doubling down on older reactionaries in the South for another couple of decades.
My brother and I were speculating on a long shot for Clinton: what if she picked Biden to continue his term as vice president? Everybody loves him, even his enemies. He'd certainly shore her up with older white males, and Obama fans would view it as yet another sign of continuity. Indeed, if you're running against the least stable candidate ever, keeping Biden would definitely drive the 'stability' message home better than anything other than picking Obama himself. Hey, wait, can he be vice president?
I've been secretly hoping for that very possibility, Balthasar. Not surprisingly. :)
TRUMP STARES DOWN GLOBALISTS
That headline should read:
TRUMP SCARES THE SHIT OUT OF EVERYONE
Billionaire threatens world markets
I don't think Hillary would ever do that, though. :(
I want to keep my senior senator. I also think she's just about as effective in attacking Trump from her Senate seat as she would be while running for the proverbial warm bucket.
... running for the proverbial warm bucket.
That phrase hardly applies anymore.
Try to keep up. :)
That headline should read:
TRUMP SCARES THE SHIT OUT OF EVERYONE
Billionaire threatens world markets
Only to those who are globalists, corporatists and/or elitists..
Which side are you on??
Obviously not the middle class...
Michale
That phrase hardly applies anymore.
I know you think it doesn't. I think it does. You haven't given any reason to think that the next head of the kitchen cabinet will be the veep, rather than the First Gentleman or some other associate from the Clintons' extensive array of political contacts. Nor have you given any reason to think that the veep has any powers other than kitchen-cabinet ones.
picking Obama himself. Hey, wait, can he be vice president?
No, he cannot. Amendment XII: "no person constitutionally ineligible to the office of President shall be eligible to that of Vice-President of the United States." And amendment XXII: "No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice".