Final Electoral Math -- My 2016 Picks
Welcome to the final Electoral Math column of the 2016 election season. After a very quick rundown of the past week's polling activity, I'm going to dispense with my usual hedging and just go ahead and call every state for either Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
As with all my political prognostication columns, I always admit my own record up front, so you can see my past performance. While my record for picking primary winners is only fair-to-middling, my record at picking states in presidential elections is a lot better. In 2008, I only called two states wrong, as I was so overly optimistic that Barack Obama was heading for a historic landslide that I rashly predicted he'd win Georgia and Missouri. Missouri did wind up being incredibly close, but John McCain won Georgia by a full five points. I also failed to predict that Nebraska would split its Electoral College vote, with one out of their five votes going to Obama. Counting Washington D.C. as a state, my 2008 record was 48.8 for 51 contests. In 2012, however, I correctly predicted every state, for a perfect score of 51 for 51. Now, I seriously doubt I'm going to do that well this year, because it's been such a wild and wacky race all around. Meaning there are sure to be surprises at the very end, as well.
But we'll get to all of that in a minute. First, let's take a final look at the graphs where we've been charting both candidates' performance over time. I'm going to keep the commentary on the graphs to a minimum for this final column, as I'm really just providing them for completeness' sake. After a quick run-through of the final charts, I'll get to naming my picks for each candidate and my final map of the 2016 election.
Here is the overall total count of Electoral Votes (EV) for both candidates.
[Click on any of theses images to see larger-scale versions.]
If all the polls are all accurate, Hillary Clinton will win 317 EV, or 59 percent of the total. Donald Trump will win only 221, or 41 percent. Here are the final breakdowns of both candidates' detailed charts, beginning with Trump.
[Definition of terms: "Strong" means 10 percent or better in the polls,
"Weak" means five percent or better, and "Barely" is under five percent.]
Here's how Hillary Clinton stands in the polls, as she heads into Election Day.
There was a lot of last-minute movement in the polling, and it was almost all in Trump's direction. Two states (Georgia, Virginia) wobbled but then wobbled back to where they started. But Trump got good news in a whopping ten states in the final week, and bad news in only one.
Mississippi and Texas both firmed up, moving from Barely Trump to Weak Trump. Four other states (Indiana, Missouri, South Dakota, Utah) moved from Weak Trump to Strong Trump. Trump only saw one state slip in the final week, as what is possibly an outlier poll showed Tennessee weakening from Strong to Weak Trump. But the best news for Trump was flipping two states that had previously been tied (Iowa and Ohio), and flipping two other states all the way from Clinton's column (Nevada, Alaska). That Alaska poll last week which showed a Clinton lead was obviously just an outlier poll to be taken with a grain of salt, but the movement in Nevada is less clear. The state started at Barely Clinton, moved briefly to Barely Trump, then was tied for two days before moving back to Barely Trump today. A mixed picture, at best.
Hillary Clinton not only lost two states to Trump this week, she also saw her standing weaken in three others. New Hampshire went from Weak Clinton to Barely Clinton, and Maine fell from Strong to Weak Clinton. New Mexico wobbled from Weak Clinton to Strong Clinton, then back to Weak before ending at only Barely Clinton. Clinton's one silver lining this week was Oregon, which moved up from Weak to Strong Clinton.
Just for those of you who have been regular readers of this column, here are the final "Strong Plus Weak" charts for both candidates.
Donald Trump saw a surge in strength in the final week, and his Strong Plus Weak number winds up right between where John McCain was in 2008 (with 132 EV) and where Mitt Romney was in 2012 (at 191 EV). Donald Trump heads into Election Day with 161 EV comfortably in his pocket. This is an enormous improvement over the 108 EV he had last Monday, it should be noted.
Hillary Clinton saw her Strong Plus Weak number fall last week, from 264 EV down to 239 EV. However, she too is right between where the race stood in 2008 and 2012 for Obama. Obama entered Election Day in 2008 with 278 EV (more than necessary to win the race), but he only had 217 EV corralled in 2012. Obviously, Obama went on to win both races. Clinton's standing is better than Obama's last time around, so the chances for her doing the same are actually pretty good.
My Picks
The 2016 campaign season has been the wildest ride I think any of us has ever seen. In the final two weeks, James Comey's letter about the F.B.I.'s investigation into Clinton's emails threw a major-league monkey wrench into the contest. Comey was obviously under a lot of pressure to follow up on his vague announcement, and yesterday afternoon sent a second letter to Congress, which really should have just quoted the immortal Emily Litella: "Never mind."
So we have all kinds of last-minute trends to ponder. After the first bombshell letter, Clinton slipped in the polls, both nationally and at the state level. She was already beginning to show signs of recovering from this by the time the second letter hit, but any event two days before an election is probably going to have only a limited effect on people's actual votes. It may be too little, too late, in other words.
Late-breaking trends can swing whole elections. Wise pollsters pay very close attention to what happens in the final week, but this time around it's hard to know what to think. Will the trend towards Trump truly tip a bunch of battleground states? Or will the trend reverse on the news that Clinton has been cleared by the F.B.I. once again? If so, that will be the final trendline for the campaign, but again the news may have broken too late.
Team Clinton has a clear and dominant advantage over the Trump campaign when it comes to ground game (otherwise known as "GOTV" for "get out the vote"). Clinton knows how to build and effectively operate a political machine, while Trump barely could be bothered putting together any effort at all. This could swing many states as far as three percent, on Election Day -- which could be the margin of victory in almost a dozen states, right now. Or, at least, that's the conventional wisdom. But this race has been anything but conventional, so it remains to be seen how much of an effect the Clinton GOTV effort will have.
Many data wonks are currently obsessing over the early voter returns. This is kind of silly, although understandable. We've all been operating on nothing but public opinion polls, and all of a sudden there are actual numbers of voters to pay attention to! But it's misleading, for a number of reasons. Firstly, nobody has counted these votes yet. So nobody knows if a bunch of registered Democrats are voting for Trump or a bunch of registered Republicans are voting for Hillary -- or maybe both. Also, millions of unaffiliated votes have already been cast, but they are never discussed when the wonks slice and dice "what the early voting returns mean." Since it's impossible to tell who an unaffiliated voter voted for, this mountain of votes is just ignored by the pundits. So you'll forgive me if I am not paying a whole lot of attention to early return data, because I consider it either misleading or irrelevant.
OK, having said all of that, let's just plow right in and start picking states for both Hillary Rodham Clinton and Donald J. Trump. Seatbelts buckled? Then here we go!
Safe Clinton States -- 16 States -- 195 Electoral Votes
California (55), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (20), Maine (3), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (11), Minnesota (10), New Jersey (14), New York (29), Oregon (7), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Washington (12), Washington D.C. (3)
Safe Trump States -- 18 States -- 111 Electoral Votes
Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arkansas (6), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (8), Mississippi (6), Missouri (10), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), West Virginia (5), Wyoming (3)
I set the bar pretty high for what I consider "safe," at this point. But I doubt any of the above states will even be close tomorrow night, for both candidates. Donald Trump is deluding himself if he thinks Minnesota is in play, and last week's bizarre poll from Alaska just isn't going to reflect reality, as Trump will score an easy win there.
This leaves us with a rather long list of seventeen states which can be considered (or were considered, at one time) to be close or even "battleground" states. I don't agree with all of these designations, but because others have moved some of these into the close column, I thought I'd share my thoughts on all of them. They are roughly in order of how confident my prediction is, from most confident down to least confident. At the end is the map of all of my predictions, and my final Electoral College tally.
Close States
Colorado (9)
Colorado is supposed to be tightening, but somehow I just don't buy it. Hillary Clinton has led pretty consistently in the polls, and I just don't think there will be enough movement at the end toward Trump to flip the state. I think Clinton wins easily here.
New Mexico (5)
I'm even more skeptical of any movement towards Trump in New Mexico. I think Clinton won't have any problems winning New Mexico tomorrow.
Virginia (13)
Virginia was supposed to be on everyone's battleground list, but it broke early for Clinton -- so much so that her campaign pulled advertising out of the state very early in the race. A few recent polls put the race closer, but I think Virginia is well on its way to becoming a reliably blue state, and I think favorite son Tim Kaine on the ticket sealed the deal for a Clinton win.
South Carolina (9)
South Carolina has been polling surprisingly close -- surprising because it is usually so deep red a state. But even if it's closer than expected, I think Trump will easily win South Carolina.
Texas (38)
Texas is a similar story. Clinton had a few very good polls here, but Trump has been leading in virtually all of them. The dream of turning Texas blue animates Democrats every four years, but it will once again be a dream denied as Texas lands solidly in Trump's column.
Utah (6)
Utah is a strange race because it may be the best showing of any state for a third-party candidate -- a candidate most people aren't even aware of. Not Gary Johnson, not Jill Stein, but Evan McMullin may actually come in second place here tomorrow night. But no matter whether McMullin beats Clinton or not, Trump is going to win the state overall.
Michigan (16)
Michigan seems to be on everyone's mind these days, as Trump is showing late-breaking strength here. Michigan was also an upset win for Bernie Sanders in the primary, if you'll remember. But I'm betting Trump's last-minute rise will fall short, and Michigan will remain reliably blue. If Clinton loses Michigan, she may very well be on her way to losing the whole race, but I just don't see that actually happening.
Wisconsin (10)
Wisconsin is also showing a late surge towards Trump, and Democrats have certainly been disappointed in Wisconsin voting in past elections (the recall, notably). Still, I doubt Wisconsin will flip to Trump this time around, and I think Clinton will win Wisconsin with roughly the same margin as Michigan.
Georgia (16)
Georgia, like Texas, is high on the wish list for Democrats. Barack Obama made a play for Georgia in 2008, but was ultimately disappointed. Hillary Clinton never really attempted to flip Georgia in any big way, and I think she was smart to focus her resources elsewhere. It might be close, but Trump will win Georgia tomorrow night.
Iowa (6)
Iowa was previously pretty reliable a state for Democrats in presidential contests, but Trump has been holding a slim lead in the polls for a very long time. Clinton all but gave up on the state, and I think it'll comfortably go for Trump.
Nevada (6)
Polling in Nevada has been tight all along, and it has flipped back and forth between the two candidates. Trump saw a lead in a few recent polls here, but this is one state where get out the vote organization is going to carry the day. Harry Reid has built an impressive GOTV machine here, and when you add in the Clinton effort and a very high turnout of Latino voters, I think Clinton will actually win the state pretty easily.
New Hampshire (4)
From here on out, we get to the true coin-toss states. Any of the rest of these could go either way, really. New Hampshire had some very close polls in the last few days of the campaign, but I think Clinton will take it in the end. I'm mostly going on gut feeling on this, I have to admit.
Arizona (11)
Arizona would have been very nice to see turn blue, but I think Clinton will wind up falling short here. Maybe Democrats will get the consolation prize of seeing Joe Arpaio voted out of office, but I think the state as a whole will go for Trump.
Ohio (18)
Ohio truly has been neck-and-neck for weeks. Some in the Clinton camp are quietly confident their GOTV efforts here will carry the day with the extra two or three points Clinton needs, but I think Ohio's going to be the biggest disappointment for Clinton tomorrow night, as I think Trump will carry the state with a very small margin. This is the state I would most love to be wrong about, but I think Trump will wind up winning it.
Pennsylvania (20)
It wouldn't have surprised me if either Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton changed their registration and actually voted as Pennsylvania residents. I say this because they've both spent so much time here over the past few weeks. Trump has always tried to chart his path to victory based on flipping Pennsylvania, and he has fought hard to make that a reality. Clinton has lavished attention on the state in defense, and I think she'll actually have a pretty comfortable victory here -- much better than the polls might indicate. Clinton will dominate in the suburbs of Philadelphia, and build up such an edge there that the rest of the state's Trump voters won't be able to catch up. In fact, I bet Pennsylvania is called fairly early tomorrow night, much to Trump's dismay.
Maine's second district (1)
This one is an absolute guess, because there's just not that much polling data available. There are two districts that might go counter to the rest of their state (the other one is in Nebraska), but I'm just going to go ahead and say both of them conform with the rest of their states' votes. Maine will be solid blue tomorrow night, and Nebraska will be solid red.
Florida (29)
Finally, we come to the big two. Both of these are absolute guesses, because the vote could really go either way. I'm going to go ahead and believe the indications from Florida that for the first time the Latino vote breaks Democratic in a big way. Normally, Cuban-Americans lean heavily Republican, but the younger generation seems to be breaking with their parents. Even more significant is the addition of thousands of Puerto Ricans to the state, who are already American citizens and can thus easily register to vote. Hillary Clinton has been holding a thin lead in the polls in Florida for the past few weeks, and my guess is that she's going to win the state. Her ground game will be far superior to the Republicans' efforts, the Latino vote will set records, and the Puerto Rican demographic will put Clinton over the top.
North Carolina (15)
Finally, we get to the state I am least sure about. North Carolina could go either way, and neither result would surprise me (to put it another way). Clinton has had an edge in the polls, but it's been a very small edge. Early voting showed disappointing returns among African-American voters, though. Will Trump surge here and snatch North Carolina from Hillary? Or will her ground game turn out a larger-than-expected showing at the polls tomorrow? Your guess is as good as mine. I'm going to go ahead -- very cautiously, and with much trepidation -- and put North Carolina in Clinton's column.
My Electoral College Prediction
When you add all those states up, here's what you get:
Hillary Clinton -- 323 Electoral Votes
Donald Trump -- 215 Electoral Votes
Here are all my state picks mapped out, using only one shade of blue and red for how I think tomorrow night's actual map is going to look:
Disagree with any of my picks? Let me know about it in the comments. I've thrown my darts at the map, and these are my final picks for the 2016 election -- the most bizarre presidential election in my lifetime. Will the results be fairly normal, or just as bizarre as the rest of the race? Well, we'll all find out one way or another tomorrow night. And we'll see you all back here in three and a half years, for our next crack at predicting presidential elections.
Don't forget to get out and vote tomorrow!
-- Chris Weigant
Cross-posted at The Huffington Post
Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant
CW-
I get to the same place you do, but by somewhat different means. Your list is EXACTLY my list...and I think we'll miss on a few.
Overall, I give Clinton about an 85% chance of pulling off a win. That's pretty close to the mean of the NYT Upshot table of six quantitative prognosticators. I think Nate Silver is low balling Clintons's odds, although he is shifting her numbers up at the last minute. I don't buy into the PEC's >99% prediction or the slightly less rosy 98% of HuffPo.
I see Trump's last best hope is that states are highly correlated and tend to break his way, but even that isn't likely to help much...there just aren't that many reasonable pick-offs for either side.
Why, that's not close at all!!
Aren't you a member of the "media"?? Aren't you supposed to be making this out to be a nail-biter? Shouldn't I be chugging antacids, and and hanging on every word uttered by Steve Kornacki, Nate Silver, and Charlie Cook? I'm glad that you have the bravery to call this the blowout that it is.
On the other hand, you could be on the conservative side. I keep hearing people(Trump voters) say that they won't vote tomorrow because "the system is rigged anyway". I'm hoping that's a trend.
Let's swap NC and AZ and call 219 for HRC, based on your logic.
Latinos come out heavily enough in AZ to make it blue for HRC and an Arapaio loss, but not so heavily and there's a McCain win.
On the other hand, NC's voter suppression efforts successfully keep the state red, though just barely.
Not saying I agree with that map, just saying where your logic might be most faulty, according to my thinking.
Of course, the obvious next question is the senate.
Things are moving quickly as we move into Tues. AM. Clinton's Blue Wall is lookimg more solid. All 6 quantitative prognosticators over at NYT Upshot now call Clinton to hold 272 EV at 70% probability or more. Trump's path seems to be narrowing. Doesn't change my map, but makes me more confident about it.
I have a bottle of single malt on hand for tomorrow night. For toasting victory or coping with an upset!
Just one? ... bottle, I mean.
Dixville Notch, NH
Clinton 4
Trump 2
Johnson 1
Romney 1 (write in)
CW,
I think your map is perfect with one change: I think Hillary is also going to win Ohio.
Significant Republican crossover vote of around 10%, and I think women are going to bring Ohio home for Hillary.
Color Ohio blue. :)
Kick [8]:
I believe the total three-town NH vote has Trump up 32-25 with a smattering of votes for various others. She's down 7 (votes). Trouble?
Here's my map...
http://theworleys.net/temp/michaleEC.jpg
Here's my map...
http://theworleys.net/temp/michaleEC.jpg
I'm glad that you have the bravery to call this the blowout that it is.
Yea.... And Trump is toast and BREXIT will definitely fail... :D
Balthasar, I think it's you I am going to have the
most fun with, this time tomorrow.. :D
Everything in the past week has gone Trump's way..
This is just like Reagan/Carter.... Reagan behind the entire campaign and then zooms ahead the last week...
There is simply no way that NC and FL will go Hillary.. You drive around FL and you'll see 40 TRUMP signs for every single Hillary sign...
Florida is Trump.. You can take that to the bank..
After what Hillary and the Left Wingery pulled in Charlotte last month?? There is NO WAY that NC is going to Hillary..
North Carolina is Trump. You can take that to the quickie mart... :D
Late breaking quotes...
"I was all set and ready to prosecute Hillary Clinton for her email server.. Then, while perusing Hillary's emails, I found my own suicide note.."
-FBI Director Comey
"ELECTION PREDICTIONS: Democrats will take an early lead throughout the day which will drastically change to a massive Republican lead once the work day ends."
-Media Outlet
:D
The big 3 you are mistaken on, CW is FL, NC and MI....
It's a foregone conclusion that Trump will win FL and NC...
If Trump takes MI too??
It's all over but the fireworks...
Oh wait. Hillary cancelled her victory fireworks... Maybe she knows something ya'all don't.. :D
I believe the total three-town NH vote has Trump up 32-25 with a smattering of votes for various others. She's down 7 (votes). Trouble?
Nope...
Just indicative of how the day is going to go... :D
Just one? ... bottle, I mean.
I know, right??
I would think a CASE would be required to address the upset.... :D
Die Fuhrer-ette Says 'VOTE HILLARY!!'.."
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/2138282/outrage-as-lady-gagas-bizarre-costume-at-clinton-rally-is-likened-to-a-nazi-uniform/
CW- "forgive me if I am not paying a whole lot of attention to early return data, because I consider it either misleading or irrelevant."
I think you are a little too conservative with regard to early voting analysis. Polling simultaneously projects likely voters and candidate preference. Both factors are subject to error. Early voting projects voter preference for those who have actually voted, also subject to error, but not the same error found in polling. Polls are subject to sampling biases (phone platform and poll participation) not found in early voting data. Early voting can provide better estimates if it's fed into an appropriate statistical model...especially if their are a few cycles of early response data for comparison.
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/voto-secreto-trump-most-hispanics-back-deportation-want-immigration-cap-cut-in-half/article/2606769
Ya'all see?? This is what I have been trying to tell ya'all..
LEGAL hispanics support Trump..
It's only the criminal hispanics and those that want to aid and abet the criminals.. THEY are the only ones who are anti-Trump....
Ah, Dixville Notch. Wasn't the Musical "Brigadoon" based on Dixville Notch....a magical village that materializes once every 4 years?
Michale,
LEGAL hispanics support Trump..
Trump is going to set records for Hispanic voters. I would guess Trump will receive about 18% of Hispanic voters, compared with Romney's 27%... record lows. :)
The surge in Latino voters is being called the "Trump bump." :D
LEGAL hispanics support Trump..
It's only the criminal hispanics and those that want to aid and abet the criminals.. THEY are the only ones who are anti-Trump....
Outrageously false... outrageously, even by your standards, Michale ... :(
Outrageously false... outrageously, even by your standards, Michale ... :(
Could you be more specific?? And maybe provide some anecdotal evidence to support your claim that what I am saying is false..
Because I can well document the claim that many many MANY legal hispanics support Trump...
Trump is going to set records for Hispanic voters. I would guess Trump will receive about 18% of Hispanic voters, compared with Romney's 27%... record lows. :)
That's your claim.. We'll see what reality shows..
Ya'all claimed that Trump wouldn't get ANY black American support and Trump has already TRIPLED Romney's support by black Americans..
So, let's just say ya'all don't have the best track record with Trump predictions...
It's much worse than MY track record with Hillary predictions.
And THAT says something... :D
Hey CW
Starting tomorrow, we should start finding out who is truly blue.
A
Many, many, MANY does not equal only ... say what you mean! :)
Can I be more specific?? Please ...
Many, many, MANY does not equal only ... say what you mean!
I did..
Those hispanics who are anti-Trump vis a vis the immigration issue are either illegal immigrants (criminals) or those who aid and abet illegal immigrant (criminals)..
http://www.theamericanmirror.com/photos-hillary-supporters-trash-lawn-outside-independence-hall/
Typical Democrats... :^/
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/11/06/12-tips-if-your-presidential-candidate-loses-trump-clinton-healing-america/93170124/?platform=hootsuite
There ya go, my fellow Weigantians... Help is there.... :D
http://www.gannett-cdn.com/-mm-/a935c90a80dad04d160cb03810ea9f024deac82a/c=0-0-2995-2252&r=x393&c=520x390/local/-/media/2016/11/02/USATODAY/USATODAY/636136720587892406-110116jaxWebOnly-clinton-fbi.jpg
Now THAT is funny.. :D
Liz-7
I can get more...bottles, I mean. :-)
I try not to swill single malts. After a few, you might as go vodka, Russian style. I mean the little glass, one gulp, repeat until unconcious....not the little dance where you crouch and kick your feet....never got the hang of that.
Michale,
Could you be more specific?? And maybe provide some anecdotal evidence to support your claim that what I am saying is false..
Anecdotal evidence is the gold standard in the alternate reality bubble of right-wing nuts living on the planet of Wingnutia. But, but, but... lots and lots of yard signs where I live. But, but, but... bigly crowds!
Ya'all claimed that Trump wouldn't get ANY black American support and Trump has already TRIPLED Romney's support by black Americans..
No one here has said "Trump wouldn't get ANY black American support." We all knew he had the support of the rapist Mike Tyson and the 2-time murderer Don King along with Trump's African American Director of Outreach... Omarosa... who said people will have to "bow down" to Trump.
Romney got around 7%, and I suspect Trump will get about the same amount, maybe a point or two more. Even Breitbart propaganda is reporting Trump is doubling Romney's support... not sure what propaganda rag is reporting Trump getting "TRIPLE."
Anecdotal evidence is the gold standard in the alternate reality
Maybe for Left Wingers...
But, in THIS reality, in the REAL world, anecdotal evidence... aka FACTS.... is the coin of the realm....
No one here has said "Trump wouldn't get ANY black American support."
I can prove otherwise, but what would be the point? No one here would acknowledge the fact, so......
Romney got around 7%, and I suspect Trump will get about the same amount, maybe a point or two more.
As usual, you "suspect" wrong.. Trump's documented black American support is up somewhere around 20%-25%..
You'll know that tomorrow.. :D
Oh and I have a lot of support in email... :D
However, other said they specifically wanted to vote for Republican Donald Trump only to see their vote switched before their eyes to Democrat Hillary Clinton.
“I went back, pressed Trump again. Three times I did this, so then I called one of the women that were working the polls over. And she said you must be doing it wrong. She did it three times and it defaulted to Hillary every time,” Bobbie Lee Hawranko said.
“If somebody has an issue, they should certainly let the judge of elections at the precinct know and also call their county bureau of elections as folks have done here this morning,” Pa. Rep. Daryl Metcalfe said.
Officials have recalibrated the machines and are confident that the problem has been resolved.
http://pittsburgh.cbslocal.com/2016/11/08/some-problems-reported-as-voters-head-to-polls/
And so the cheating begins..
There will be blood...
Michale,
But, in THIS reality, in the REAL world, anecdotal evidence... aka FACTS.... is the coin of the realm....
Oh, I have no doubt whatsoever that anecdotal evidence is bigly in your alternate reality bubble. *LOL* :D
Dept. Of: he'll have fun, fun, fun till his nanny takes the Twitter away
Trump is up Tweeting again! That was sudden. Faster than the rupture of Chris Christie's lap band!
Maybe Trump did the pouty face "I'm sorry" thing, where you cross your hands, look at the ground and rotate your right foot back and forth and mutter the magic words.
Or maybe his campaign manager said to herself "It's over.. What the hell, keep him in a good mood, I just want to get paid."
Oh, I have no doubt whatsoever that anecdotal evidence is bigly in your alternate reality bubble. *LOL* :D
We'll know in about 6-8 hours.. :D
The only question remains is will you be able to admit that you were wrong and I was right... :D
Trump is up Tweeting again! That was sudden. Faster than the rupture of Chris Christie's lap band!
Maybe Trump did the pouty face "I'm sorry" thing, where you cross your hands, look at the ground and rotate your right foot back and forth and mutter the magic words.
Or maybe his campaign manager said to herself "It's over.. What the hell, keep him in a good mood, I just want to get paid."
Or MAYBE Trump will be President of the United States...
You can't even CONCEIVE that possibility can ya?? :D
New Yorker's give a hearty welcome to one of their own as Trump goes to his polling station.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z7cG0E-Du_c
What it all boils down to is this..
Over 80% of Americans want this country to change direction..
Donald Trump is the **ONLY** candidate running on the platform of making that happen...
While I am not ready to use the 'L' word yet, I am confident in using the 'C' word to describe Trump's win...
The ONLY question is how many Weigantians are going to have the maturity to be here tomorrow to take their well-deserved lumps... :D
The ONLY question is how many Weigantians are going to have the maturity to be here tomorrow to take their well-deserved lumps... :D
I know of at least 2 and I am pretty sure about another 3... :D
To coordinate with Stig and Liz's drinking plans for the evening, I am going to "whip out that Mexican thing" and go with a fine tequila to honor the Latino turnout. Looking forward to the post-election crowing and crying.
Looking forward to the post-election crowing and crying.
That's the spirit!!! :D
Balthasar, I think it's you I am going to have the
most fun with, this time tomorrow.. :D
Promise?
What do you think the fallout will be in the Republican Party after all this? Look at all of the folks on your side who refused to back Trump, folks like Romney and the Bushes who refused to endorse him, or the spectacle of Jason Chaffez, who changed his mind about Trump twice (can he still look his daughter in the eye?). John McCain won't even discuss Trump. Conservative pundits like George Will, Charlie Sykes, Hugh Hewitt, and Glenn Beck will still be out there saying the man's a disaster. Can Trump expect Ted Cruz to say anything nice about him tomorrow? And is there still a Tea Party, or is it now the Trump party?
Promise?
Ya betcha!! :D
What do you think the fallout will be in the Republican Party after all this?
A> They are going to look like COMPLETE morons..
and
2> They are going to have to do some MAJOR sucking up if they are going to want to come in from the cold and rain..
Or they can just go shack up with Hillary....
Makes me no never mind....
I am not a Party kinda guy.. Partys suck....
PEOPLE count...
. Can Trump expect Ted Cruz to say anything nice about him tomorrow?
I doubt that President Elect Trump won't give a rat's ass what Ted Cruz has to say.... :D
Ya see, that's what ya'all don't get about Trump supporters.. They don't give a flying fig about PARTY.. We would just as soon tell a Republicans to frak off and die as we would a Democrat..
Ya'all are *ALL* about Party... For ya'all, it's Party Uber Alles...
And that is why Trump supporters are so alien to ya'all... You simply CANNOT understand them.. And, as normal human beings, ya'all attack what ya'all don't understand...
CW,
Love the VOTE header!! :D
Kudos...
Have ya'all noticed that the Left Wingery has subdued their talk of taking back the House and the Senate?? :D
They are coming to the realization that this is an election that is going to drain the swamp and kick the establishment right in the cajones.... :D
And, keep in mind one thing...
FBI Director Comey is hand-cuffed by DOJ Guidelines with regards to investigations so close to elections...
After today, those handcuffs come off and Comey will A> be free to investigate to his heart's content and 2> cannot be fired except for cause....
So, regardless of whether Hillary wins or not, she is in for a world of legal hurt after this election is over...
A CNN reporter received what appeared to be an unexpected answer on Election Day when he asked a female voter if she was excited for potentially having the first female president in Hillary Clinton.
"Aren't you excited for the first female president?" the reporter asked.
Jackie Krachala, who cast her ballot for Donald Trump, replied with an emphatic "no!"
http://www.businessinsider.com/woman-cnn-first-female-president-hillary-clinton-election-2016-11
That right there emphasizes my point... Left Wingers are thinking this is a cake walk for Hillary...
They are in for a very rude shock.... Just like this Clinton News Network reporter.... :D
HILLARY +PA
TRUMP +AZ, GA, IA, NC, OH
COLORADO SHOWDOWN
FLORIDA SHOWDOWN
MICHIGAN SHOWDOWN
NEVADA SHOWDOWN
And awwwaaaaaaaayyyyyy we go!!!!!! :D
A Harper Polling survey of Pennsylvania voters released on Friday showed Trump with the support of nearly 18.5 percent of black voters in that state. Another Pennsylvania poll performed by Remington Research Group, released on Oct. 30, showed Trump with 19 percent support among black voters.
A Siena University poll of likely Florida voters showed Trump receiving the support of 13 percent of black voters. Another Remington Research poll, this time of Virginia voters, also showed Trump with the support of 19 percent of black voters there.
More polling by Remington Research released over the weekend showed Trump getting 22 percent of the black vote in Florida, 19 percent in North Carolina, 22 percent of black voters in Wisconsin, and a groundbreaking 29 percent of the black vote in Pennsylvania. By comparison, Romney took only 5 percent of the black vote in Florida, 4 percent in North Carolina, 6 percent in Wisconsin, and 7 percent in Pennsylvania.
It's not hard to see why Trump is doing unusually well for a Republican with black voters.
http://www.lifezette.com/polizette/what-is-there-to-lose-black-voters-could-put-trump-over-the-top/
*TRIPLE*.........
Anyone expecting *TRIPLE* African American voting for Trump is deluding themselves in their right-wing bubble; that will be about what Romney got plus 1 or 2 points... so 8% or 9%.
Adjust your expectations accordingly. :)
Anyone expecting *TRIPLE* African American voting for Trump is deluding themselves in their right-wing bubble; that will be about what Romney got plus 1 or 2 points... so 8% or 9%.
The polls say otherwise..
I know, I know.. You don't like polls that say what you don't want to hear..
But there they are....
Anyone expecting *TRIPLE* African American voting for Trump is deluding themselves in their right-wing bubble; that will be about what Romney got plus 1 or 2 points... so 8% or 9%.
The polls say otherwise..
I know, I know.. You don't like polls that say what you don't want to hear..
But there they are....
Unless we're starting to get some definitive word within the next hour or so, I'll have to go to sleep and dream of Trump's win... My bedtime is early and it's been a long day...
Just a heads up....
Michale,
The polls say otherwise..
No, they don't. I've seen the exit polls since I posted that, and it's 8%. :)
Hey everyone -
New election-day column up:
http://www.chrisweigant.com/2016/11/08/get-out-and-vote/
Let's move the whole thread over there, OK?
:-)
-CW