Obama Poll Watch -- December, 2016
Obama's Very Good Year
Obama's third, or "lame-duck" honeymoon continued strong in December, putting Obama at the highest point in public opinion polls that he's seen during his entire second term in office. In other words, he's stronger now than he was when sworn in for the second time, four years ago. Obama set four second-term records this month, hitting a job approval high in both daily and monthly average poll ratings, while also charting new daily and monthly lows in job disapproval. Obama had a great December, which was the capstone on the best year he's ever had during his entire presidency. Let's take a look at the penultimate chart of Obama's presidency:
[Click on graph to see larger-scale version.]
December, 2016
I say penultimate because I will be writing one final poll-watching column for Obama, right after he leaves office later this month. It's been a long and eventful eight years of writing these columns, so I just wanted to begin by thanking everyone who has been reading along for lo these many moons. But enough sentimentality, let's get to the numbers.
Obama's monthly average job approval continued its upward climb last month, gaining almost a full percent over November, to end up at 53.8 percent. You can even picture Obama saying a quick "thank you" to the fat man in the red suit, at month's end, in fact, since this put him above where he had begun his second term (52.7 percent). Even though gaining 0.9 percent in a month is impressive, Obama's job disapproval numbers fell at an even more impressive 2.0 points -- twice the rate of his rise in approval. Obama ended the month at only 42.0 percent disapproval, which (again) is lower than when he took office four years ago (42.6 percent).
As with last month, there's not a lot of need here for political analysis. Exiting two-term presidents almost always get a third honeymoon period where the public -- exhausted by the seemingly-endless election season -- gives the guy the benefit of the doubt on his way out the door. People are already missing Obama, before he's even left office -- that's all that really needs be said.
Overall Trends
We can finally see the entire span of Obama's 2016 polling, and pretty much any way you measure it, it has been the best year in office he's yet seen.
In monthly job approval, Obama had ten months of gains and only two months of losses during 2016. The average gain for these ten months was more than one percent (1.1), and totaled 11.3 percent overall. In only two months (July and September) did Obama see his job approval fall, for a total decline of 1.2 percent. For the year, Obama improved his job approval by a stunning net of 10.1 percent (43.7 up to 53.8 percent). Obama's job approval is now higher than it has been since July of 2009, at the end of his first honeymoon period.
Obama's improvement in job disapproval was not quite as good, but he still had his best year ever here, too. Obama saw his job disapproval rating fall in nine months of 2016, and only rise in three (May, July, and September). His improvement averaged 1.3 percent per month during these nine months, for a total decline of 11.7 points. His job disapproval rating rose 2.1 percent during the other three months, for a total net of 9.6 percent improvement for the year (from 51.6 percent down to 42.0 percent).
The measurement of how far above water Obama's numbers are (difference between approval and disapproval) has reached double digits once again, and now stands at 11.8 percent. That is a healthier rating than Obama has seen since the first eight months of his first term.
As I said, pretty much any way you measure it, Obama's having his best year in office of his entire presidency. Obama set new second-term records in his daily approval averages as well, hitting a daily high job approval rating of 54.4 percent from December 13th through the 17th, and on the 17th he also hit his second-term daily low in job disapproval (40.9 percent) as well.
Let's take a look at the chart for his entire second term, which shows in greater detail the amazing year Obama just closed out.
[Click on graph to see larger-scale version.]
As you move to the right side of that graph, the trendline is pretty clear and convincing. In the end, it didn't do Hillary Clinton any good, but Obama's legacy seems certain to be a positive one with the public as he leaves office.
In 2013, Obama's second honeymoon collapsed. In 2014, Obama improved a bit, but then fell back at the end of the year. In 2015, Obama managed to gain a few percentage points, but then hit a ceiling of 46 percent. But in 2016, Obama rocketed upwards on a very steep trajectory.
Counting only presidents who served a full two terms (back to Kennedy), Obama will leave office somewhere between (at the high end) Bill Clinton and Ronald Reagan (who both cracked 60 percent approval at the end of their second terms) and George W. Bush (who fell well below 30 percent approval at the end -- rating lows not seen since Richard Nixon's time).
Obama might have hit his second-term high in December, though. There are only 20 days in January to measure, and it looks like his steep rise might have crested already. If he falls back at all, it'll only be a tiny correction, but Obama seems to have topped out in mid-December and has fallen back slightly since then. So our final column after the inauguration will likely reflect this.
One final program note to end with: there will be no "Trump Poll Watch" series of columns -- at least not on a monthly basis. I never put in this effort while George W. Bush was in office, and I don't intend to do so for Trump. I will continue writing about presidential approval polling now and again, especially since I fully expect Donald Trump to have the shortest (and shallowest) first-term "honeymoon" ever recorded. Lest we forget, Barack Obama entered office eight years ago with an astounding 63.1 percent approval rating and an equally-astounding 19.6 disapproval rating -- a difference of a whopping 43.5 percent. This slowly bled away over the course of his first year (as all honeymoon periods inevitably do), but not once in his first year in office did Obama fail to remain above water. His disapproval didn't top his approval until the middle of 2010, in fact. Trump, on the other hand, will likely either start his term very near to being underwater or will hit this crossover point a lot sooner. I'll write about this as it happens, but not on a monthly basis. Which leaves us with only one more Obama Poll Watch column to write, immediately after the inauguration.
[Obama Poll Watch Data:]
Sources And Methodology
ObamaPollWatch.com is an admittedly amateur effort, but we do try to stay professional when it comes to revealing our sources and methodology. All our source data comes from RealClearPolitics.com; specifically from their daily presidential approval ratings "poll of polls" graphic page. We take their daily numbers, log them, and then average each month's data into a single number -- which is then shown on our monthly charts here (a "poll of polls of polls," if you will...). You can read a much-more detailed explanation of our source data and methodology on our "About Obama Poll Watch" page, if you're interested.
Questions or comments? Use the Email Chris page to drop me a private note.
Obama's Second Term Statistical Records
Monthly
Highest Monthly Approval -- 12/16 -- 53.8%
Lowest Monthly Approval -- 11/13 -- 41.4%
Highest Monthly Disapproval -- 12/13 -- 54.0%
Lowest Monthly Disapproval -- 12/16 -- 42.0%
Daily
Highest Daily Approval -- 12/(13-17)/16 -- 54.4%
Lowest Daily Approval -- 12/2/13 -- 39.8%
Highest Daily Disapproval -- 12/2/13 -- 55.9%
Lowest Daily Disapproval -- 12/17/16 -- 40.9%
Obama's Second Term Raw Monthly Data
[All-time high in bold, all-time low underlined.]
Month -- (Approval / Disapproval / Undecided)
12/16 -- 53.8 / 42.0 / 4.2
11/16 -- 52.9 / 44.0 / 3.1
10/16 -- 51.7 / 45.4 / 2.9
09/16 -- 50.5 / 46.4 / 3.1
08/16 -- 51.3 / 44.9 / 3.8
07/16 -- 49.6 / 46.7 / 3.7
06/16 -- 50.0 / 46.2 / 3.8
05/16 -- 48.8 / 47.3 / 3.9
04/16 -- 48.6 / 47.2 / 4.2
03/16 -- 48.4 / 47.4 / 4.2
02/16 -- 46.3 / 49.6 / 4.1
01/16 -- 45.5 / 50.2 / 4.3
12/15 -- 43.7 / 51.6 / 4.7
11/15 -- 44.4 / 51.3 / 4.3
10/15 -- 45.3 / 50.0 / 4.7
09/15 -- 45.6 / 50.3 / 4.1
08/15 -- 44.7 / 50.4 / 4.9
07/15 -- 45.7 / 50.0 / 4.3
06/15 -- 44.6 / 50.7 / 4.7
05/15 -- 45.4 / 50.0 / 4.6
04/15 -- 45.2 / 49.9 / 4.9
03/15 -- 44.9 / 50.8 / 4.3
02/15 -- 45.4 / 50.1 / 4.5
01/15 -- 44.8 / 50.5 / 4.7
12/14 -- 42.4 / 52.8 / 4.8
11/14 -- 42.0 / 53.4 / 4.6
10/14 -- 42.1 / 53.4 / 4.5
09/14 -- 41.5 / 53.5 / 5.0
08/14 -- 41.6 / 53.0 / 5.4
07/14 -- 41.8 / 53.6 / 4.6
06/14 -- 42.4 / 53.4 / 4.2
05/14 -- 44.0 / 51.7 / 4.3
04/14 -- 43.4 / 52.1 / 4.5
03/14 -- 42.9 / 52.8 / 4.3
02/14 -- 43.3 / 52.3 / 4.4
01/14 -- 42.7 / 52.7 / 4.6
12/13 -- 41.9 / 54.0 / 4.1
11/13 -- 41.4 / 53.9 / 4.7
10/13 -- 44.2 / 50.8 / 5.0
09/13 -- 43.9 / 50.8 / 5.3
08/13 -- 44.4 / 50.2 / 5.4
07/13 -- 45.3 / 49.2 / 5.5
06/13 -- 46.5 / 48.5 / 5.0
05/13 -- 48.3 / 46.9 / 4.8
04/13 -- 48.6 / 46.8 / 4.6
03/13 -- 48.5 / 46.3 / 5.2
02/13 -- 51.1 / 43.1 / 5.9
01/13 -- 52.7 / 42.6 / 4.7
Second Term Column Archives
[Nov 16], [Oct 16], [Sep 16], [Aug 16], [Jul 16], [Jun 16], [May 16], [Apr 16], [Mar 16], [Feb 16], [Jan 16], [Dec 15], [Nov 15], [Oct 15], [Sep 15], [Aug 15], [Jul 15], [Jun 15], [May 15], [Apr 15], [Mar 15], [Feb 15], [Jan 15], [Dec 14], [Nov 14], [Oct 14], [Sep 14], [Aug 14], [Jul 14], [Jun 14], [May 14], [Apr 14], [Mar 14], [Feb 14], [Jan 14], Dec 13], [Nov 13], [Oct 13], Sep 13], [Aug 13], [Jul 13], [Jun 13], [May 13], [Apr 13], [Mar 13], [Feb 13], [Jan 13]
First Term Data
To save space, the only data and statistics listed above are from Obama's second term. If you'd like to see the data and stats from Obama's first term, including a list of links to the full archives of the Obama Poll Watch column for the first term, we've set up an Obama Poll Watch First Term Data page, for those still interested.
-- Chris Weigant
Cross-posted at The Huffington Post
Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant
I'm predicting that Obama will hit 60 before the month is out. :)
One final program note to end with: there will be no "Trump Poll Watch" series of columns -- at least not on a monthly basis.
Wise decision and, mercifully so.
Which leaves us with only one more Obama Poll Watch column to write, immediately after the inauguration.
You might want to give it a week or two after the inauguration ... if you know what I mean and I'm sure that you do!
Which leaves us with only one more Obama Poll Watch column to write, immediately after the inauguration.
The Internet works in Canada?
You're cut off, Neil ... :)
Oh, okay ... I get it.
Cheers!
My new coping mechanism ... cancel my subscription to CNN and just watch Canadian news. I'm sure I'll be alerted if anything major happens that I should know about.
Impact of minimum wage increases on fast food franchises ... record profits!
https://ww2.kqed.org/news/2017/01/03/minimum-wage-goes-up-and-so-does-business-thats-what-this-fast-food-ceo-says-happened/
My new coping mechanism ... cancel my subscription to CNN and just watch Canadian news.
I record and watch BBC News every day - 30 minutes of valuable information and often a sublime moment or two.
Today's sublime moment was the response a young kid gave when asked about the dinosaur in the entry hall of the Natural History Museum in London. Needs to be seen :)
BTW I have a crush on Katty Kay :)
https://g.co/kgs/uZp1zh
neilm [4] -
I recently sat in my driveway to hear the end of the "12 Days Of Christmas" as performed by Bob and Doug McKenzie. So all I have to say is: "Hoser!"
Four pounds of back-bacon,
Three French toasts,
Two turtlenecks,
And a be-ee-ee-eer in a tree!
Heh. Take off, eh?
:-)
-CW
Should've added...
"Greyhound Lines from Buffalo to Toronto... boarding now!"
Heh.
:-)
-CW
LizM -
Just curious, you ever seen the sticom "An American In Canada"? About an exiled news anchor, and absolutely hilarious!
:-)
-CW
neilm [8] -
Excellent article. Key paragraph:
“My overall sales were something like 15 percent ahead after the first minimum wage bump, and now they’re about 12 percent ahead this year,” Jacobs said. “It isn’t because I’m such a great manager or smart guy, but the buying public has more money in their pocket.”
Henry Ford figured this out, like a century ago. Supply-side economics is crap. It's demand-side economics that work. Give the workers more money, they will buy more stuff. Pretty elemetary stuff, really.
Thanks for the link!
-CW
One final program note to end with: there will be no "Trump Poll Watch" series of columns -- at least not on a monthly basis.
I understand..
It's going to be hard to see a President that ya'all swore up and down would make this country a third world hell hole....
It's going to be hard to see him have better approval ratings than Reagan... :D
Who wants to see that every month... heh :D
Impact of minimum wage increases on fast food franchises ... record profits!
https://ww2.kqed.org/news/2017/01/03/minimum-wage-goes-up-and-so-does-business-thats-what-this-fast-food-ceo-says-happened/
Yea, for specialty niche shops, maybe...
But for the every day world???
It's a proven fact that hire wages lead to fired workers....
Obama and the Democrats had 8 years to put their worker's paradise in play..
There is a reason why they didn't..
Because it doesn't work....
HAPPIEST.... PICTURE..... EVER.......
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C1W7K60WQAMW-o6.jpg
Moving van at the White House..
The eight year nightmare is coming to a close...
:D
I'm predicting that Obama will hit 60 before the month is out. :)
There is no doubt that Obama is likable enough...
But if he had been doing the kind of job that would warrant such a good approval rating, then Hillary would be President Elect right now...
The American people have totally and completely refuted the Obama policies in no uncertain terms...
I mean, honestly...
How bad do those policies and agenda have to be that they lost to DONALD TRUMP!???
Should've added...
"Greyhound Lines from Buffalo to Toronto... boarding now!"
Heh.
How many of those who promised to leave the US if Trump won have actually left??
Answer: ZERO
And the Left Wingery wonders why it has no credibility... :^/
Bringing this forward from yesterdays commentary..
CW
Want to bet a few quatloos on how Obama's job creation record will stack up with Trump's?
I'm in for 500 quatloos that Trump's first term record will be worse than Obama'a, how's that?
Michale
Yer on.....
Trump has already saved/created thousands of jobs and he ain't even PRESIDENT yet!!! :D
Anyone else want A Piece Of The Action?? :D
Neil,
Oh, I'll keep my subscription to BBC News but Katty Kay thinks Joe Biden is a buffoon so, guess what I think about her!?
Chris,
Just curious, you ever seen the sticom "An American In Canada"? About an exiled news anchor, and absolutely hilarious!
No, actually, I have not. It sounds like I may have to find it, store it and refer back to it ... often throughout the next couple or four years ... still don't think it's very likely that Trump survives past the first half of his first and only term ... I'm stubborn that way.
... still don't think it's very likely that Trump survives past the first half of his first and only term .
I would have thought ya would have been wary about Trump predictions, eh?? :D
On the other hand, I still make SCOTUS predictions, so I guess I see where yer coming from... :D
Nothing ventured, nothing gained and all that...
Obama said he'll also work to rebuild a Democratic Party that's been decimated over the course of his presidency. Democrats have won the popular vote in six of the past seven presidential elections. But since 2010, Democrats have lost thousands of downballot races — the congressional seats, governor's mansions, state legislative districts and local offices that form a kind of bench for a political party.
Get that??
Obama is going to "help" the Democratic Party rebuild..
Even though EVERYTHING Obama touches goes the OPPOSITE way of what's desired...
The Chicago Olympics... Martha Coakley... Brexit... Trump....
Whatever or whoever Obama supports is thrown onto the trash heap of history..
If the Democratic Party had ANY sense, they would say to Obama, "Thanx, but no thanx... You've done enough..."
http://img10.deviantart.net/16ad/i/2016/319/0/2/2016__election_results_by_county_by_ynot1989-daoioo0.png
That's the results of Obama "helping" the Democratic Party..
Does the Party REALLY want *MORE* of Obama's "help"??
Over a thousands Democratic Party political seats have gone to the GOP thanx to Obama's "help" putting the Democratic Party in the worst shape it's been in almost a century....
I am sure the GOP is thinking, "Yea Obama!!! Help the Democratic Party!!! PLEASE help the Democratic Party all you can!!!!!"
heh :D
http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2017/01/05/stanley-black-decker-sears-holdings-craftsman-donald-trump/96192526/
And Trump is bringing MORE jobs to America.....
Making America great... One company at a time... :D
It's a proven fact that hire wages lead to fired workers....
Really? A proven fact. Any chance of some supporting evidence?
In fact the data from California and Seattle has supported demand-side economics.
If you give a 20,000 multi-millionaires $1 million more in tax breaks per year they might buy a new yacht, or maybe a new plane. If you give 20,000,000 regular people $1,000 per year, they will spend it on things that other regular people make or services they provide.
I can never figure out why anybody who earns less than $250K/year votes for tax breaks for the rich and the elimination of estate taxes.
Making America great... One company at a time... :D
We create 7,000,000 jobs per quarter and destroy almost as many at the same time.
This is all photo-op snake oil for the gullible. The CEOs of major corporations are playing Trump like a 2-bit fiddle so they can get the corporate tax rate cut in half (or more if Trump gets his way) and to get rid of inconvenient restrictions on their businesses (usually stopping them from creating external costs they want you and me to pay for instead).
Source for above figures: https://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/economic-synopses/2015/03/27/jobs-more-slowly-created-more-slowly-destroyed/
Really? A proven fact. Any chance of some supporting evidence?
You mean, beyond logic and common sense???
http://blogs-images.forbes.com/timworstall/files/2016/02/seattle15minimumwage.jpg?width=960
A picture is worth a thousand words....
You can't get something from nothing, Neil... First law of thermodynamics..
If an employer pays workers more, that money has to come from somewhere... So an employer has to raise prices... Customers will not like the price hike so they will go elsewhere.. Employer will lose business and lose money. Employer can't afford to keep the employees he has, especially at the higher wage. Employees are fired and replaced by automation or Employer goes under and ALL employees are now jobless...
"Simple logic"
-Admiral James T. Kirk
This is all photo-op snake oil for the gullible. The CEOs of major corporations are playing Trump like a 2-bit fiddle so they can get the corporate tax rate cut in half (or more if Trump gets his way) and to get rid of inconvenient restrictions on their businesses (usually stopping them from creating external costs they want you and me to pay for instead).
Ahhhhhh I get it now...
So, when OBAMA creates jobs, it's awesome, it's stupendous, it proves what an awesome POTUS Obama is..
But when TRUMP creates jobs, it's that he is being played by CEOs.... :D
"The {Party Slavery} is strong in this one."
-Darth Vader
:D
Democrats boycott inauguration over Trump comments
http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/national-politics/article124836634.html2 House
Waaaaa Waaaaaaaa Waaaaaaaa
"My candidate didn't win so I am going to take my balls (what few I have left) and go home!!! Waaaaaa Waaaaaaa"
If nothing else, that PROVES beyond any doubt the bullet we dodged when we elected Trump and the GOP to take over the government from these whiney children..
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4091036/Call-disgusting-attack-Obama-s-yard-exactly-Trump-hating-race-crime-against-defenseless-white-man-young-black-Americans-shame-country.html
This is the kind of hypocrisy that just pisses me off to no end...
This is the EXACT hypocrisy that the Left Wingery is all about...
This is the EXACT reason why Democrats have lost so many elections..
The American people are sick and tired of the Left's blatant, unremitting and unapologetic hypocrisy and double-standards..
If this had been a black special needs male who was tortured and attacked and vilified and humiliated with a bunch of "FUCK OBAMA!!!"s and FUCK BLACK PEOPLE!!!s, the Left Wingery (including everyone here) would hysterically lose their frakin' minds!!
AND RIGHTLY SO!!
But, because it's an Anti-Trump message, it barely warrants *ANY* mention from the Left Wingery...
Now, I dunno about anyone else, but if *I* were a Democrat, I would be EVERYWHERE, saying how sick I am of this and how utterly pathetic my Party can be and how ashamed I would be to have these animals representing my Party...
But what do we hear from the Left Wingery??
"Oh, I don't think it's evil."
"Let's wait for all the facts to come in before we judge it a hate crime.."
"These are just stupid kids making stupid mistakes."
"I don't think this is indicative of race relations in this country..
My gods!! It makes me sick and ashamed to think that these animals *AND* the people who defend and mitigate and excuse these animals are (allegedly.. jury is still out on that) human beings, the same as me...
I would think that SOME things transcend Party politics and should be resoundingly and completely condemned, REGARDLESS of Party affiliation...
I guess I was wrong...
"Oh, I don't think it's evil."
"Let's wait for all the facts to come in before we judge it a hate crime.."
"These are just stupid kids making stupid mistakes."
"I don't think this is indicative of race relations in this country..
For the record, those quotes were from CNN'S Don Lemon, the Obama White House, the Chicago Police Superintendent and Mr Obama himself, respectively....
One thing in common??
They are all Democrats...
One can only imagine what those quotes would be if it was a black special needs male and 4 redneck scumbags that tortured him...
I know, I know.. I am on a tear on this...
Don't worry.. I am leaving tomorrow for a week and I won't have NET access... So ya'all will be able to retreat and regroup....
Is that a promise?
Is that a promise?
Probably... I might send a hail-hearty HIYO!! from Belize or Honduras or Cozumel... :D
But I definitely won't have time to keep up with the day-to-day LET'S OBSTRUCT EVERYTHING TRUMP DOES BECAUSE WE HATE HIM meme.... :D
So, you'll have a week where you can get out all the hysterical BS without any fear of it being countered with... yunno... FACTS.... :D
Seattle minimum wage - the reality - a fantastic success.
http://ritholtz.com/2016/12/seattle-min-wage-update/
Michale:
What might seen like common sense to you is just a lack of willingness to investigate the data. The real data from the BLS (not the chart you posted which was a lie, but you probably didn't know because Forbes and Warstall in particular have been lying about this since before it was even passed) show a strengthening economy. In fact Seatle is basically overheating.
Try to do some real research on reality instead of relying on politically motivated
Seattle minimum wage - the reality - a fantastic success.
http://ritholtz.com/2016/12/seattle-min-wage-update/
That's the spin...
The reality is far different as I have aptly proven..
Try to do some real research on reality instead of relying on politically motivated
You mean, like the research I did that PROVED Trump would win the election??
Or do you mean the research that YA'ALL did where you ignored ALL the data that didn't fit the agenda and only looked at the data that DID fit the agenda..
What might seen like common sense to you is just a lack of willingness to investigate the data.
Sorry, my friend..
Recent history CLEARLY shows who was the one who investigated ALL the data and who were the ones who "investigated" "Party Approved" data only....
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2017/01/how-republicans-plan-to-roll-back-obama-era-regulations/512348/
Thank the gods for the CONGRESSIONAL REVIEW ACT... A 1996 measure that passed with unequivocal bi-partisan support..
What does it do??
It not only allows Congress to rescind every Executive Order issued, it mandates that no agency can replace the rescinded order with a similar order..
In short, the CRA will completely gut Obama's PHONE AND PEN overreach....
And the beauty of it all is that the GOP will be able to do it ALL on their own without ANY help from the Democrats in Congress... :D
The dawn of a new era....
It's morning in America :D
It's Official...
US drops more bombs in Obama’s final year of office than in 2015
http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/nation-world/national/article124842824.html#storylink=cpy
Obama has dropped more bombs than ANY other Nobel Peace Prize winner in the history of the award...
And the outcry from the Left Wingery Anti-War crowd???
{{chirrrpppp}} {{{chiiirrrrrrrppppp}}}
Apparently, the LWAW crowd are ONLY "anti-war" when the POTUS has a '-R' after their name.... :^/
Am I wrong??
"Yer not wrong"
-God, AKA Chuck
DNI Clapper: Russians Did Not Change Any Vote Tallies in U.S. Elections
There you have it from the HEAD of all the US Intelligence Agencies...
Russians did NOT "hack" the election..
Can we end this whiny charade???